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LOL....... sounds like a weather version of a Rorschach test.

Yes, as to my remark they seem washed out. Nothing remarkable . but NOT a torch either.

I only had three beers....... getting ready for the Eagles game. I need to be a little buzzed to watch my home town team. Ugh ! To clarify, they look a bit on the warm side until the end of January. They also look like the Euro seasonal model runs which depict little high latitude blocking. So, they match the Euro seasonals from Sept and October that forecast little blocking and a not so good pattern for us. I hope that is clearer.

The "weaklies" look blah-ish to me through the end of January. Looking at 500 along with 2 meter temps they seem to possibly echo the seasonal outlooks from back in October and November. However, what they show is not surprising, and I put very little faith in them. The look also seems washed out, with nothing to hang your hat on.

As expected , the decline has commenced.

The trends are trending ..........

Speculation, but the AO should be slightly negative near day 8, ( and possibly declining further from there ) and if so, this may play a role in a better outcome than this weekend. As you mention, originally when the rainstorm this weekend looked like a a nice CAD event I believe the AO was forecasted to be negative, right now that is not the case. A week ago there was posting about a interval during mid-month that would give us a better look up top. Maybe this is going to happen and hence we see the potential in the d8-10 period.

The depth and expanse of the cold push has really diminished the last four days. When you compare the AO right now to the time period November 1 st to November 20 th , it was in a steady decline starting on the first and continued to drop to - 2 SD on the 20th. I believe this aided in the surge South of the bitter air mass along with the assistance from the PAC at that time, and a couple other factors. What is really interesting is how unusual the November cold period really was, and what, if anything it might mean further down the road when we get a prolonged -NAM state. Granted these November cold intrusions are not new, having occurred several times recently this decade. So, as is the theme so far this Fall , it is very hard time for making any meaningful pattern correlations. ( 1 +1 does not equal 2 ) Even with the depicted cold air mass arriving it does not hold a candle to the cold anomalies seen in mid November, and that even includes actual air temps. That period was very unusual. The air mass came directly from the pole SSE towards our area. The current pattern sure does not lack cold and storm threats, but in general sense favor the Northern Plains, Great Lakes region and the far NE. I look forward to when we reload /transition back to -NAM state. Things look to improve once over the moderation period.

The improving trend on the CPC ensembles continue for the AO. The consensus take it to - 1 SD by the 16th. Then a somewhat continued decline after that. Far better then what was forecasted several days ago. I hope it is correct.

Ralph, keep this in mind with the GEFS, as it has been running too cold per bluewave, especially in the SE portion of the country, but here as well. from bluewave: << I wouldn’t go by the GEFS since it’s been running too cold. >>>>>

How timely is this " this should lead to that " or x means y

I may bring up my concerns, but I love snow, and I am not cancelling winter. I feel my position on that is the same. I remain hopeful and I believe the winter will deliver. I am simply bring something out to discuss. I love when poolz, wxusaf, showme, you Bob, and psu ( plus many, many others ) add value to this forum by contributing really great stats, insights, and research to show where we may be headed. We have the best long range thread here at America wx in my opinion.

Exactly, I say enjoy the holidays and the time of year as we track the progression. After all, the models have been flipping and flopping, expect change and change will happen. Classic holiday music still sounds great even when it is a bit mild outside..

I enjoy hearing both sides of the science. Maybe I am being swayed by concerns that will never take front stage. Not to mention seasonal forecasting is very complex and no one will ever tell you they have complete confidence in their forecasts Honestly, as poolz posted recently, we have been in this cooler regime for a while. We are eventually due for a break. Maybe, this later December moderation period is simply a variation of the January thaw, just several weeks earlier. 30 years ago in my youth all I would know is generally we warm a bit after a month of frequent cold fronts, I knew nothing of the MJO, Glaam, AAM, tropical forcing, etc. Sometimes not knowing is better, so much to track and account for. I am still hopeful for a period of winter weather that lasts awhile. I do feel the base state will deliver us what we want this winter.

Meanwhile the vortex looks to get stronger as we look out a bit. To me just looking over the landscape it would appear that Isotherms, camp 2 outcomes might be gaining traction. Combine that with the recent trend of warm Decembers after the 15 th and you get the much anticipated warm-up. How long is the question. If you go by Tom's train of thought it could be a while. To me it is disheartening to possible once again put all my faith into a shortened climo window, yeah, most likely over-reacting, but is wise to .always temper expectations to avoid complete depression over the lack of snow and sustained cold. Getting harder and harder to arrive at a meaningful and durable cold weather period. Oh, and for the record, the vortex can be stronger than average and we might still get colder periods but we really need -NAM state, I still have some hope the warmer period does not eat too much into our peak climo period.

The solstice warm up has been par for the course the last 8 years. Seems to be getting ready for another run this year. Not the end of the world as you mention, but it is uncanny how this happens every year, more so after mid-month, and even more so near 12/24.

I know this is speculation, however, do you think the CFS is seeing beyond the moderation period with the outlook that CAPE just posted ?

Yes, this is in the CFS's wheelhouse. The intriguing part though is the time period, December 22nd to the 29 th. Looking at the MJO convection and the expected progression , along with the various indices, especially the EPO region, it looks as if we lose the -EPO due to the MJO progression, at the same time the AO and even the NAO regions improve. This all takes place between the 9 th and the 16 th. The CFS here is implying a shift to the colder outcome later in the month. So, maybe we warm prior to Christmas, as we have every year for the past 8 years and then the pattern becomes favorable again. This would match some analogs. I can buy this outlook with the assumption that the CFS is seeing through the moderation period.

That is what I thought, but some folks deny it is really a pattern, due to the limited years. Personally, I am a believer, maybe the recent global warming , such as warming in the West Pac might be to blame, but the timing is remarkable. The timing issue around the solstice is the most intriguing element here.

Any recent changes on your opinion for later in the month ? Are you still ( and hopefully I am recalling correctly ) more hopeful about a more conducive pattern for Jan. into Feb? Wonder if we ever get an "ideal " pattern ? Very difficult to have both a favorable Pac and Atlantic at the same time.

Really interesting how this post 12/20 warm up seems to happen more frequently the last several years. Maybe this year will be a exception, but as you mention, the MJO progression increases the odds that it might occur yet again.

Bluewave, any thoughts regarding progression of the +IOD / standing wave this month? In the short-term, as in this month, do you envision any weakening of the standing wave and a weakening in the general record +IOD. Eric Webb mentioned maybe later this month it starts to weaken. I believe it is typical as well to see the seasonal change over there and the eventual decline in the +IOD as we go through Jan and Feb.

I see a noticeable AO ensemble change with today's forecast, a decent majority of the members take the AO to neutral to even negative by mid-month. This is a rather big change in the last 24 hours.

I guess, but one never knows. Just because we were lucky so far does not mean it will last. I agree we have more than often verified seasonal to cold and avoided a torch period, so far. I however, can not shake Isotherm's view and a couple in his clan regarding tropical forcing/glamm/MT /AAM/ a stubborn PV, an ineffective QBO, etc. If correct, ( Tom ) we end this month warm and start Jan warm as well, with likely little snow. Yeah, Ok, it is December but if his view is correct it will take weeks to get to a better pattern. The -EPO not looking as good, AO and NAO not looking good, etc. Again two camps, seasonal December maybe a little below normal , and the other whom if correct with their insights, we warm as the HL turn to crud and we run the warm MJO phases or simply stagnant in the warm phase(s) along with possible consequences from the standing wave yet again.

Don S seems to think the talk about this potential split is talked about incorrectly by some on social media. I assume based on his post that he does not agree with BAMMWX, since they only focused on 50 mb. He also mentions a continuation of a +AO regime by the GEFS. . I bring you his post over from 33. from Don: << Bad information about an imminent polar vortex split is circulating on Social Media. Even at the 50 mb level there is no split. Further, a true split happens at more than a single layer of the stratosphere. Not surprisingly, the GEFS forecasts the continuation of a general AO+ regime.