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Certainly a plausible scenario. Please, can we get some lower minimums at night, less humid would be great too, so less lawn fungus.

Probable guess, during the + PDO / - EPO driven winter of 2014 - 15 , when Lakes froze, it was a remarkable cold period. I might be off a year but I think one of the months was firmly below normal during met winter.

That might be correct. I have to check.

This year is rather remarkable in terms of the consistent trough in the area of Alaska. Some stations in the Yukon and NW Canada setting some records for the coldest weather in many years. Meanwhile, I believe two days ago, another record set for the jet stream, this time over Green Bay. No changes on the horizon at all, if anything warmer risks more likely I think and a overall warmer March. Also noticed the AO ready for another huge climb up after the recent record over over +6 SD. The recent trends regarding the warmer SSTs in the Eastern Pac also foretell of a warmer March , in addition to the AO modeling. However rolled over the warmer March gives way to a colder April. Wondering too about the summer , as I am hearing varying opinions about the summer weather pattern in the East, ranging from little precip and extreme heat to a cooler summer. I can not even remember the last month around here that averaged below normal.

That would fit Isotherms's window almost perfectly. We will see.

I would enjoy some snow in early to mid March before we ramp up to warmer weather. Maybe we can keep the bugs at bay for a while as well. It certainly is not impossible we get that window you are referring too. Wavelengths certainly may enter the picture as we enter the first week of March. Time some cold with moisture and bingo. Near Atlanta did it recently, so all options are still on the table.

Remarkable, but fleeting, right near the 20th of the month. Once again we see a good chance at a rather intense cold shot later next week, timed almost perfectly with previous months this winter. The vortex vacillation seems to continue the pattern. Another theme this winter at times is the variability and sudden swing in temps including your favorite warm wet and then cold and dry. Cold and dry in this back ground state is typically between 36 to at most 72 hours.

Well now

I wish I was more hopeful, because it will take a lot to break away form this regime, or as Ventrice described it, as a anti-blocking pattern. The jets are zipping along. Huge record breaking event also on the way this weekend in the North Atlantic. Wow

It certainly appears the hope for a back loaded winter are all but gone. Think we have a warmer March along with Don's ideas ( below ) and I feel the opportunity for any meaningful snowfall in March is very, very low. From Don S. morning post today : << Morning thoughts... While attention has been fixed on the record-setting AO+ regime that saw the AO reach a preliminary all-time record of +6.342, another development that has occurred in the eastern Pacific has increased the probability of a warmer than normal March. That development also suggests that any snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region after February could be limited. ENSO Region 1+2 has warmed dramatically over the past two weeks. During the week centered around January 22, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and for January 2020 it was -0.04°C. During the most recent period (week centered around February 5), that anomaly had risen to +0.8°C. Both the 2/12/2020 0z EPS and GEFS suggest that the AO will return to extremely positive values near or above +4.000 around February 20. In addtion, based on the outcomes following the 1989 and 1990 super AO+ regimes in February and assuming a secondary peak at extremely positive values (+4.000 or above) around February 20 +/- a few days, March will likely begin with a noted absence of blocking in the AO+ region. The evolution of the February AO+ regime would argue that the AO would likely remain positive for much of March. During the 1981-2019 period, there were seven cases where the February ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increased by +0.5° over the January average: 1989, 1991, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2012. Five (71%) of those cases had an AO+ to end February and start March: 1989, 2002, 2008, 2011, and 2012. The March composite 500 mb and temperature anomalies for those five cases are below: Mean March-April snowfall for New York City for those five cases was 0.7" (skewed by 2.5" in March-April, 1989) and 0.5" in Philadelphia (skewed by 2.4" in March-April 1989). >

Impressive + NAO and wide ranging warmth across parts of the NH. Meanwhile...........

The 20th of the month has been a colder time for the past several months and this occurs in what some mention as a vacillation of the vortex which according to HM happens in stronger vortex winters. This time of the month coming up may once again have minor interest. The last three times it happened cold ejected Southward but did not time well with moisture. Not sure this time is any different . Speculation on my part maybe the GEFS is wrong and the current NAM state is more hostile than in November, and December and even Jan. So, maybe the cycle does not duplicate near the 20 th. Of note as well is the GFS:

Makes sense, I know Bob pointed out a few days ago how the control seems to regularly spit out snow storms for our area. Just interesting to note. Another cool seasonal repeating phenomenon, and I think this goes back to last winter as well, the under modeled SE ridge and expansive WAR and how storms always seem to trend NW in time and the scarcity, for the most part, of suppressed systems. Repeating theme, 20 % coastal huger, 70 % cutter and at times a suppressed system 10 % . % are estimated on my part. The seasonal models forecasting of an active STJ was correct but the lack of cold and blocking had always guaranteed rain versus snow. Lastly I believe a record sub sonic flight was set this weekend at an average speed of over 800 mph shaving 1 hour and 17 minutes off a flight leaving maybe NYC and going across the pond. That is remarkable, sorry I can not recall the exact departure and arrival locations. Next up is watching the Atlantic Basin ahead of the hurricane season and the East Coast SST profile. Might be an early beach season if Spring is not cold.

Pretty much the same back ground state since late December, meanwhile the research about the warm West Pac and its role on super charging the jet continues, and is making me a believer. Routine records being set for jet speed across the NH while the vortex remains coupled and strong. No way to weaken it in the background state we are in. March looks less hopeful now, and I feel it averages 1 to 2 degrees above normal . Also, learned during this winter not to trust at all the GEFS when it comes to vortex weakening, and the CFS is totally unreliable and useless. Also, many false hopes could have been avoided if the new GFS was not rushed into action, as it still had a very serious issue with temps and because of that false hope digital snow forecasts galore. Plus, the Euro Control portrays snowfall a few times this winter in the Northern Mid Atlantic when it was not supported by its ensembles or the OP.

And last winter as well. Also, the cold / dry and then warm / wet seems to be resonating as well. I do believe it is a pattern that produces this repeating cycle for us. Looking at the AO it takes a dive from +5, but down only to around +1 and then back up again. Models last week with a weakening and then re-strengthening seem to be correct so far. Meanwhile what a slap in the face.

Very insightful and totally agree. I plan to read and do some learning during the summer regarding the drivers that Tom follows. I believe you said you might do so as well. During the later part of 2020 we will have a firmly established - QBO at all levels, if not sooner . Looking forward to seeing some better results in the NAO domain during the next couple years. If you want another area/topic to read then this one sounds interesting from Anthony . I imagine we really need to focus once again on the IO. and this

A possible March look ahead based on two winters, Feb 1949 and Feb. 1990 which in a few ways look similar to this month so far, and then what followed in March in those two years.

Ha ha that sounds Isotherm-ish ...... but yeah makes perfect sense. The lag effect and all. In regards to your mention of the warm oceans I know HM posted some very interesting info on the ocean temps and SST profile near Aussie along with the +IOD. Hopefully that look changes by next year, as Anthony believes it effected everything downstream and the jet as well. I feel the -NAO makes a winter return in a big way either next year or the year after.

In a hierarchy, of course the AO is near , or at the the top.

That could be true, I feel they do at least have a role in reinforcing the WAR. Warmer SSTs in that area during the late summer and early Fall certainly extend warmth in the coastal plain. Many new warmth records have been are set from DC South in the late Fall, ( the last 10 years ) bluewave even spoke about this last October and November. The records set mimic the orientation of the offshore warmer SSTs extending all the way down to Florida.

The time period mentioned by HM, however, timing is off for maximum effect, and as you stated, it recovers and remains very strong. No signs at all of any meaningful weakening or changes in the NAM state. Meanwhile you still have the fast Pac jet and under modeled WAR. Cutters continue and the basic repeating theme since last winter continues. Ocean temps rather warm for this time of year in the Western Atlantic as well.

Very true. You could simply forecast the winter here based on the AO and the PNA. and the NAO as well. The AO being the most important in the middle of the winter, the +PNA in the beginning and the - NAO late in the winter in terms of snowfalls. .Although the AO is king on a broad brush view among the 3 I mentioned. . None of these indices have been or look to go into a favorable phase for us here in the Northern Mid Atlantic any time soon. If you look at the indices they can tell you in a simple manner whether other players and drivers are lining up for us to get snowfall opportunities and the cold to go with it. They even have a hand in storm tracks and if you notice we have been getting unfavorable tracks, to a degree similar to last winter, and when a track is a little better cold air is lacking . I also believe the poor indices lend support for not believing what the models show in the long range when it comes to snowfall potential. Don't believe long range threats will materialize in a backdrop of poor support from the various mentioned indices above. And so far this is true, all threats have fizzled. This follows along as well with the importance of a AO from Don Sutherland below. Very eye opening. But, I am sure we here all recognize the importance of the AO. From Don S. < The latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will reach extreme positive values (probably +5.000 or above for the first time since March 8, 2015): Extreme AO+ situations typically lead to much above normal temperatures on the U.S. East Coast and in Europe. In large part, the consistent guidance suggesting the potential for an extreme AO+ event allowed for a high degree of confidence that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions would likely see a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal February and that Europe would see a much warmer than normal February (with the warmest anomalies occurring in eastern Europe and western Russia). The cooler air that moves into Europe later this week will again yield to much warmer than normal conditions early next week. The GEFS Day 8-12 average 500 mb height anomalies forecast shows ridging on the East Coast and over much of Europe. The 8-12 day temperature average is warmer than normal in both areas. Finally, should the AO remain strongly positive through mid-month, the probability of significant snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region will be low during that period. Not surprisingly, the ECMWF, which had been showing a potentially major snowstorm during the second week of February has now backed off from that idea. >>>

Sorry my post is not a positive one, but it still belongs in the long range. You have an issue no doubt, learn to accept the good and the bad. Or not, at least have some common courtesy.

I actually believe the weeklies might be correct based on the current background state we are in. We all know beyond week two it is speculation, but hey why not, what is really going to change to turn the lower latitudes cold and snowy in the East. Nothing I can think of. Maybe a fluke March event. Losing confidence that even March delivers a decent period.

The trend continues this afternoon with the AO forecast going up to extreme levels. The OP targets + 7 and the EPS targets over + 6. Remarkable. And don't look for the PNA to help, as it dives negative. The AO may drop back down mid month but not sure the improvement, if you want to call it that, is simply a temporary cycle down until it goes back up later in the month. I don't see any real improvement in the NAM state any time soon. Maybe in early March on a meaningful and sustained level. If the AO correlation holds for Feb., then any snow opportunities in our area will be limited, and as for significant events ( greater than 6 inches ) are off the table all together. Keep in mind as well, any snow events that do show up in the long range or medium range always seem to trend to either coastal huger, cutter or far South and sheared. This has been going on since last winter.