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frd

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Everything posted by frd

  1. More than a squirrel sounds awesome in this new base state . Meanwhile Tip talking about 1977 in the NE forum . Bring it !
  2. Just checked out the latest AO forecast. Members going even more negative than yesterday. Consensus on - 4 SD AO. Some members take it to - 6 SD. Wow !!
  3. A look where snow on snow could occur. Ha, I can dream.
  4. Pretty crazy look on long range guidance last night. GFS has big potential. Have not seen the GEFS but @CAPEposted the overnight Euro ensemble and it looks enticing. Nice wave breaking - wonder if we might get a clipper exploding on the VA capes near the 17 th to the 22 nd
  5. Yep, I am excited for this time period.
  6. Looks like potential for a clipper. Been a long time. Also, a Manitoba Mauler would be acceptable as well. That vortex is almost South of Hudson Bay, interesting possibilities if this look comes true.
  7. Increased likelihood of a deeper and longer duration - AO.
  8. good thread, and talking about the this very thing.
  9. I thought last I read it was the EPS and GEPS versus the GEFS. Also, thought I read the GEFS was trending to the EPS in the long range. Period of interest was near and after the 20th. I for one believe we must have the Pac on our side to get snow, versus anything else.
  10. Any thoughts on what happens after this event as we approach mid month ? Happy New Year too !
  11. Rather impressive heat fluxes during the next 10 days.
  12. Check this out -NAO and then the SWWE Long duration - AO and - NAO upcoming
  13. I believe this raises the bar for cold and stormy weather here, while enhancing cold air intrusions after Jan 20 th. Robust agreement here.
  14. SSWE becoming more and more likely. AO expected to dive soon, and then we await on the after effects of the warming. Too soon to know where the coldest anomalies are directed to.
  15. Your in top form @CAPE. Appreciate the updates. Not posting as much because I have suffered medical issues and surgery, but your posts cheer me up every morning. I am really hopeful for snowfall in early Jan. Things looking better and better.
  16. Might gamble and take a PTO day for Jan. 8th. The second disturbance sure looks promising at this range . Upstream looks better as well leading to the colder outcome.
  17. That was a great memory. So much excitment. I remember Accu weather with a forecast of 6 to 8 inches for the beaches of southern NJ the day before. This might have been the storm the Canadian sniffed out that JB claimed his greatest victory to that point calling for a I 95 snowstorm when all others were a scrapper. Watching that snow shield move North and forecasts changing was a big thrill. I also recall the winds after the storm blowing snow back into areas that were cleared. A great memory psu !
  18. Seems very typical in years past. I am sure he is celebrating. My Christmas day high temp has increased to 55 degrees, not too bad, however, still waiting on a white Christmas. By Friday we get back to normal temps.
  19. At least he is bullish on Feb, as you are, and believes we have very significant - NAO later in Jan and Feb.
  20. SSWE in Jan. has historical analogs as support.
  21. Stongest signal yet for a major SSWE. We all know we do not require one to have meaningful snow events, however, concerns of a very cold and very strong PV are much diminshed currently. What this may help is, raising the odds of significant winter weather in ealy to mid Feb matching up with previous MECS.
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