frd

Thanks, I must be impatient.

Appears the undercutting trough developing under the block has slowed significantly the last 48 hours. Atlantic also looks different versus a couple days ago. Maybe require a few additional days to get to a better pattern, or maybe the modeling is simply not correct. Waiting on others to chime in.

You really think that's possible?

DT is excited INCREASING THREAT FOR MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR TENN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC FEB 4-5 3:45 PM · Jan 27, 2024 ·

Been here for many years, and I believe I never remember you being so hopeful. Let's do this !!!

Webb might be on to something.

Thanks, I would hope, and expect as the ops get closer to the extended range modeling the snow mean, given the potential of the pattern should indeed move South and increase. I have not seen any snowfall mean maps recently. I am pumped for what the models are showing.

Did you think by next week 2/3 we begin to see the modeled snow mean start to move South closer to our area, as well as increase? Or, do you think it is still too early?

Maybe once it starts snowing it will not stop. I am on the psu train, edit..... sled I mean

Yep climo, that amount here, plus what has fallen already the last two events would give me a below average snowfall season. Go big, or go home ! Just a snow map of course, the pattern looks very promising, lets hope it delivers like a blend of 1958 and 2010.

March certainly can be a much, much colder and stormier version of December. Shorter wavelenghts, increased odds of late season HL and NAO blocking. I experienced a few wicked March snow events here in the last 15 years. March 2018 I believe was the retro - NAO which lead to 7 F, snowfall and blowing snow, and multiple school clsoings. And, there are other examples too. If things work out as portrayed by the weeklies a version of 2018 could happen. Will be fun to observe the pattern to see what it brings.

This looks much better recently.

Does it still show S/Ws flying around the base way out in La La Land ? I think once achieved this could be a rather active and cold pattern setting up. May have legs too.

Rapidly weakening already set in motion.

LOL. Second time I believe. Don't tell @CAPE Poor Judah, weather does not exsist in a vacum. THE PV and the HL should become more favorable again with a decent Pac and plenty of threats to track I am very excited myself for the period Feb 10 th to March 10 th.

Of course near President's Day. Looks great.

And around she goes at a higher amplitude. Moving at a decent pace as well.

Great point, I have heard this before. Looking forward to monitoring this during the upcoming work week.

Late month fun. We need a pattern with no path to failure. Maybe this over running pattern might be it.

Wonder if this is the final.outcone. Sure depressing considering some had posted this blend was doing well in forecasting.

Too bad ridge axis is not near Boise. Is GFS hour 384 still showing cross polar flow as psu mentioned a couple days back.?

I hope Feb is going to be epic. We have had a severe - NAO, juiced up STJ, a severe - AO and nothing to show for it except flood issues. One issue after another. Cruel hobby for sure.

As I said before, just because the GFS shows a snowy solution for three days in a row it really means nothing. Euro for the win yet again. Persistence does not mean the GFS is going to be correct. This is not the first time the Euro schooled the GFS, and it will not be the last.

GFS persistence does not equal superiority. We shall see.