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frd

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Everything posted by frd

  1. frd
    The CMC is always more bullish on HL blocking in general it seems. In both domains.
  2. frd
    So you are thinking the pattern change lasts about two weeks and then thats it? So you are going to route of the Pac not cooperating and breaking down the pattern that sets up in mid-Feb by early March? Some are going with a cold and possibly snowy March. I have my bar set low, despite the weeklies, and ensembles. Been fooled too many times in the past.
  3. frd
    Do you believe it though ? Thought we are headed for a - EPO + PNA pattern in mid Feb.
  4. frd
    3 D Vortex current Hour 384 forecast from the GFS. Notice the bagginess and displacement North South orientation, along with hints of a split at lower levels. Overall positive signs for the HL.
  5. frd
    Party on Chuck
  6. frd
    As for the - NAO arriving later in Feb, looks like game on.
  7. frd
  8. frd
    CANSIPS for Feb . Basically cooler but seems like an extended dry period. Versus split flow in the long range by various ensembles. I imagine need to see how high + the PNA gets. Too much of a good thing and we might go drier.
  9. frd
    The signal for the mid month weakening has been there for a bit combined with slower winds and a gradual movement of the PV Southward in a wobbling fashion through hours 384.
  10. frd
    I believe at the peak of the pattern and possibly afterwards for a bit we will have some bizarre storm evolutions, such as loops, stalls and retrogrades. Looks crazy.
  11. frd
    Many photos online from the various snow storms of 1958 in our forecast area. Rather severe for many locations. If 1958 plays out its going get nuts.
  12. frd
    Latest trends with the AO are very encouraging. Also a weakening of the SPV mid February including a displacement event. HL progression in Early to Mid February is enticing for snow lovers in the East .
  13. frd
    He is a very well respected MET.
  14. frd
    Some very cold air is going to be pulled down during mid Feb. Some crazy snow depths in Alaska and extreme cold.
  15. frd
    From Tomer , here is his update from 5 days ago, so keep that in mind. He seems bullish for a Moderate to Major Mid Atlantic Snowstorm January 25 Update I typically like to provide general windows for snow potentials once the picture becomes somewhat clearer; in the following days since this post, I feel increasingly confident in narrowing down a potential window between around February 15-25 for the peak potential of a moderate-major Mid Atlantic and Northeast snowstorm, though a low potential exists as early as the 2nd week of February.
  16. frd
    The CFS is in its wheelhouse of higher predictive scoring. I can certainly see this as the look after Feb 10 to the 15th. Based on the look overall the anomalies may be rather severe after Feb 15 th
  17. frd
    They will burn in flames !
  18. frd
    Looking at seasonality, blocking cycles, and other data, including the increased odds of another signifincant - NAO period, it would not shock me if we get that - NAO in early March. This might increase the odds of a higher end winterstorm in early to even mid March, despite climo aurguing otherwise.
  19. frd
    Ha, love it. I am not sure if I like the term Big or First better ? ( I like both !!! ) Thanks for your updates psu.
  20. frd
    Looks like big snow storm potential. Or too early yet ?
  21. frd
    DT update 3:57 PM · Jan 28, 2024 · 9,047 Views WORKING HYPOTHESIS so if we accept the idea that the northern Jet Stream is overdone then the southern LOW is not along the Gulf Coast on FEB 4-5 . It will be back in the Tennessee Valley and the big snowstorm threat is still alive. IMAGE 2 shows the individual 30 members of the 12z GFS Ensemble . Of the 30 members ….13 of them show a significant surface LOW that would bring significant snowfall to the Middle Atlantic region. some of these Solutions also include the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England. Some do not. Given the GFS propensity to overdo the northern branch and suppress southern systems 13 out of 30 is almost 50% which is not bad.
  22. frd
    This would be a plus to hopefully extend or magnify the upcoming pattern change.
  23. frd
    Like many have stated, it is still a long ways off given the complicated set-up.
  24. frd
    What does the EPS look like at the extended range?
  25. frd
    My only concern is time. Simply put when the improved pattern arrives and is established let's look at the date. The later the date, the less likely to possibly achieve seasonal snowfall, or above. Caveat a MECS in which odds are higher in a Nino .
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