frd

All cold prior to December 5 th is useless anyways ...... bring the hammer after December 5 th and put some Bing Crosby on the airwaves.... I would enjoy a warmer day or two in later November anyways to put the lights on the trees, so pretty to look at but so tedious to do. Takes 1/20 th of the time to undo those wrap-arounds.

Interesting

Simply looking at the NAO and the AO you think otherwise to a degree. But man, that PNA loves to be negative, we can not shake that. Plus, we can not build any West Coast ridging. Of course the model error may have been those typhoons, however, many mets mid week already called for a late month cold snap. Goes to show you how difficult it is to predict the pattern. Can you imagine putting out a seasonal forecast ?

The SST seasonal models weaken the very positive IOD in the months ahead. The QBO is descending, but there is some debate as to when , if at all, we reap the benefits here in the East. Some say later in the winter, while others say December and onward. Some interesting comparisons were posted a while ago in this thread regarding the QBO.

Winds gusting to 28 mph still raining here....

Interesting radar returns in the Chessy , pressure still dropping here with a NE wind .

Looks great. I will have to take a pic of mine to share. All in all I am very happy with the way the front lawn looks. The two most challenging things for me was the aeration and watering when it was 94 degrees out. Your new fire pit and grass complement one another !

Rainfall picking up here as well. I hear a chorus singing by the thousands in your hood CAPE....... It sounds like little seedlings singing the praises of rain

From bluewave, and this is pretty remarkable. I hope to see some sort of reshuffle down the road that has some staying power. From bluewave 's recent post : <<<<<. We just need some help from the Pacific. The -PNA/SE Ridge combo has been running the table this year. 2019 pattern to date >>>>>

Siberian snow cover should resume shortly . Also read that sea ice should resume making a recovery form recent all time lows. Area with highest opportunity to improve would be NE of Greenland, extending to the East.

Latest radar returns and trends would seem to reveal the heaviest rains From I - 95 East, taking time to run NE but seems to be doing so . Caveat is should the preip shield weaken.

Agreed. Just happy in the present to see the dry period come to an end. Clarity regarding the early winter should be provided in the next few weeks .

That might be the the most insightful comment of this entire thread. The new normal is a challenge. And, to make matters worse, it is ever-evolving.

Wow to day 6 and 7. We are fighting our way out of this flash drought. Day 6 and 7 ...

Ventrice got disgusted with folks saying the GEFS is correct and the EPS was wrong. I know last winter was a huge one up in the Northern Plains. Denver where my daughter was had a great winter, blizzards and all. Hoping we do not repeat that pattern again, time to spread the wealth. Again, maybe we just require time to transition deeper into the Fall. No one has any real firm idea about the winter yet. So many contrasting signals, and issue with sea ice, the ENSO, everything really. I even read that the QBO my not be a player for us here until very late in the winter, as it needs to descend further and even that is not a guarantee it will work in concert with other players such as tropical forcing to provide the colder and snowier outcomes we wish for.

Also, seems very difficult to get a +PNA. Had it in the July, August and even Sept. but so far this October it has been mostly a - PNA. Last winter I also think it was negative for a significant amount of the time .

A little more on the changes for late month, this is a good one from Webb, explains maybe why things are turning the way they are for later October.

Have to wonder whether the Euro does have some sort of bias with over doing a SE ridge / WAR. Pretty dramatic changes on the EPS yet, as others have mentioned, the GFS and the GEFS have not changes that much. I really like to see some stability in the Euro. I mean now it has the cold dump in the West. Ventrice posted on this, but I would not really feel totally comfortable buying that look 100 % from the Euro at this time. And lets not forget the times of those forecasts , one from Monday and the latest from last night.

So true. That was a big issue, pumped a ridge and then the corresponding SE ridge gave us warmth. I know bluewave and I were talking about the sea surface anomalies North and South of Hawaii last winter and the set up so far this fall. Also the research on the warmer SSTs being closer to the Aleutian islands versus closer to the coast of the Pacific NW is interesting. It is going to be a little longer until we get an idea where the Ridge axis is going to set up. Too far West as you know would be a bad thing for us. Along with you and CAPE, I have no expectations about the winter ahead. Honestly I miss the days when I was 10 years old and awoke to find a winter wonderland.

You might like this research , it touches on your statement. There is discussion on absolute versus relative anomalies .

Of course, I see many mets and private services going with more recent winter analogs and many mets are beginning to question analogs form the past due to recent GW. Possibly they feel they have less value. However, I still think there is value to be gained from the past if you allow for what we have seen the last 7 years around these parts, and then tweak your analog package to account for the current climate regime. As for that map you posted, that is a good visual of the way things have gone recently this decade. However, I have to think if we get the re-emergence of a winter -NAO the NE section of the country will be much colder.

Excellent link, thanks ! Hopefully this winter should not be boring. ( in a good way ) And, I really do like what I am seeing in the Pac, and the NAO domain's early signs are intriguing.

Seems like the PMM is a player too. But you are correct bluewave , there are so many significant players to consider and how they will interact with each other. I am becoming more fascinated every day with the effect of the solar min on the winter temps.

@poolz1 Just as much as getting the block to form is the location of it . This might be another indication for the winter upcoming , speculation of course . The map you have here is classic West NAO domain based blocking. You can see that many posters across the Pond are complaining that over there the - NAO has so far only brought warmth. The East based - NAO is what they desire I believe. Of note as well, if you look at some 500 mb maps posted around the low solar winters they look like the map above. Does this repeat in the winter , not sure. But, no longer can those who say it means nothing continue to say that, because we are into early November if that map verifies. Meanwhile ,solar conditions are pretty dead. Even though the numbers are not on par with 09- 10 we have very low AP numbers, low solar flux and very low sunspots. This is purely solar minimum winters: This is solar minimum winters ( below ) combined with a Enso neutral / weak warm , note the change in the NE Pac and the cold extends East to Europe and beyond.. Courtesy Andrej Flis ( @Recretos )

OMG