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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The Euro is slightly more progressive than it was before because there is a ridge just NE of Puerto Rico that has grown slightly stronger over the last 2 days on modeling. That bumps the 50/50 low that had been in place a little more ENE and allows the system to slide out faster. It also pushes a little more towards the GOM and makes the trough there less sharp/flatter.
  2. John1122
    WPC noted the GFS stays open with the wave, the Euro closes it off at points. That effects the timing and turn of the system.
  3. John1122
    The Euro doesn't see as much downsloping for the NE so that's good. The gradient over Knox is the gradient that is over my area on the CMC. Right now it's the FV3/Euro vs the rest regarding snow in Knoxville.
  4. John1122
    You're probably in the best area of anyone who regularly participates in the forum for this one. The fellow from Bluefield who posted yesterday will almost assuredly get 8-12 inches as well. Bluefield is one of the snowiest cities in the VA/WVA region it seems like. I remember the local forecast on TWC back in the 80s always had Bluefield as one of the regional cities and it seemed like their obs said snow in winter almost every day.
  5. John1122
    For some reason I thought it warm nosed Knoxville last night, but it did not. So it's virtually a mirror image of last night's run but it cut back on some of the 1-1.5 inch totals out west.
  6. John1122
    It was better in the Knox area than 0z. Looks more like the EPS from 0z there.
  7. John1122
    The Euro was about the same as 0z at the end, but it cut everything almost west of the northern highland rim except a dollop around or just west of Nashville. Complete polar opposite of the NAM with it's heavy snow in N/NW Tennessee.
  8. John1122
    The Euro will probably end up very similar to the UKIE by the look through 72.
  9. John1122
    The valley is more influenced by the GoM than those areas. But that hasn't matter amazingly to place like Louisiana who have also gotten more snow than the 40 corridor in Tennessee lately.
  10. John1122
    I expect t to pretty much end things for my area. Good luck to everyone in NETN/SWVA. Hopefully the NAM can somehow be true for the folks out west as well.
  11. John1122
    My area has really taken a nosedive in the last 12 hours. Lordy. This will go down as the biggest model swerve I've ever seen if the 12z suite is correct and their trend continues. It's probably going to change how I approach the weather hobby as it is essentially pointless to even check a model outside of 48 hours for the Valley region if you want more than a general idea about the pattern at 500.
  12. John1122
    The 06z GFS is as ugly as a Tennessee football game outside of SWVA and VA border counties.
  13. John1122
    Poor MRX having to write all this out in their ZFP. I'm pretty happy with their Saturday night wording for my area. If I recall the Heavy is usually used for 6+ inches. 1-3 is light, 3-5 is moderate and 6+ is heavy.
  14. John1122
    Freezing rain.
  15. John1122
    Here's the clown free of sleet/freezing rain.
  16. John1122
    Not quite as heavy as the epic 0z run, but still pretty darn nice. All in all, have to hope the warming trend is basically at it's peak. With a 1038-1040 banana high and a storm track along the Gulf this map would verify. Of course that becoming a reality is the million dollar question.
  17. John1122
    72-84 changes over to snow from Memphis to Nashville to Knoxville. Nashville blasted with snow, Knox is a mixed bag. Chattanooga/Huntsville/Lawrenceburg are raining.
  18. John1122
    Through 69 Arkansas is getting pounded. There's been some rain/snow mix in NW Tennessee. The large area of frozen slop that was near Memphis on the 0z is all rain this run. High is 1040 over Wisconsin stretching to Eastern Pa. Dew points are still 3-5 degrees higher than they were at 0z but have fallen into the lower to mid 20s along the TN/KY border areas, they were in the upper 10s at 0z. 850s slightly warmer but should wet bulb down with the precip and nice hp in place.
  19. John1122
    At 60, the HP in Illinois is again a little further south. Precip shield and lp position are about the same as 0z. There's a huge difference in dew points. Feel like it may be more rain vs the southern edge show it showed earlier. My dp was 19 at 0z and it's 29 at the same hour this run.
  20. John1122
    06z Nam out to 54. H is over Illinois and West Virginia looks like a 1038 on both location. Low is 1 mb stronger in about the same spot. Illinois high center is a little further S and W vs 0z.
  21. John1122
    The EPS. The mean is down, especially for Kentucky. Someone mentioned that the last few cycles the 00z has lightened up, then the 12z comes back bigger. We will see if that continues or if this is the beginning of a decline.
  22. John1122
    The Euro has the second system again tonight. Looks like it drops 3-5+ on the Plateau and Mountains.
  23. John1122
    The RPM at the end of it's run.
  24. John1122
    The ULL was weaker and further south on the Euro, it was actually warmer than the GFS. So no backside enhanced snowfall for the most part. There is some lighter mixed stuff that drops across Southern Middle TN but not much otherwise.
  25. John1122
    UKIE snow map. Right now it' the UKIE/FV3/NAM/CMC vs the Euro/GFS for areas west of the Plateau.
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