Digging through soundings on the 3k show the area around DCA popping to 33 with some shallow warm layers on the way through the column. It's very close throughout.
Lol I saw that. 90% of that is sleet/frza. DCA stays right around 32 throughout the event but there are warm layers poking in when looking at soundings.
Quicker onset with precip. ULL still goes north of the area so no now after the initial thump but that is still way out in clown range. ULL was quicker overall, just need it south!
Edit: 12z NAM
I know it’s out of range but the ULL at 84 is further south...that’s the key to some parachutes in the deform. Only talking 50 or so miles south with that feature.