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Posts posted by weatherwiz
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That is the beauty of science. Science doesn't care about anyone's feelings or opinions. Science doesn't care if something upsets you, science doesn't care if something bother's you, and science doesn't care about your backyard.
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4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:
Disagree. All summers are hot but not all winters are cold.
This is a great post.
This illustrates beautifully that the terms hot and cold are subjective. I mean what is truly considered hot and what is considered cold? You could ask 100 different people to define each and you'll probably get 90 different answers.
We actually used to debate this in some of my classes. When is it appropriate to use hot and cold?
One person may think 87 is hot...one may think 87 is warm. So who is correct?
Well this is why it's important to understand what climo is and what the records are. If the average high for the day is 77 and the high is 87...you can certainly make an argument it is hot. But that doesn't necessarily mean it is hot. It's certainly well above-average and that isn't debatable.
For colder season, some people may think 30 is cold, while you have some people who can walk around in shorts. So, is it cold? is it not? If the average high is 21 well 30 certainly isn't as "cold" relative but that doesn't mean it's not cold. If the average high is 45...well you can make an argument 30 is cold but that doesn't mean it's cold.
4 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:July 2006? I thought you were born in 1988
I didn't even notice the year
I want to say that pic was 2013 or 2012
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1 minute ago, dendrite said:
BDL normal is 48. They probably pulled a 47. Normal low is 29. Actual was 33. Looking like a +1 or +2 right now.
Gotcha...I was just rip and reading the climo given on the extended MOS/NBM
I don't know why I still do that...it's asking for failure, case in point here.
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49 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:
Bullshit. Let's play a game. What if a month in summer is normal but dews were in the upper 60s and 70s every day. Would you remember it as a normal summer month or a hot one. Sensible matters otherwise you wouldn't have heat index and wind chill
Sensible weather matters to the individual but I'm talking about this more from a data standpoint/historical perspective.
33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:Nobody remembers summer heat. 88 or 100 is hot. People can’t tell the difference. What they do remember is cold and snowy winters. Unfortunately those don’t happen anymore…
That's not true at all, people will remember both. Through conversations with many people I've heard them recall years or summers which had sweltering heat. People are going to remember what was most impactful to them or what was engraved in their brain by media. Instances of cold and/or alot of snow or periods of high heat/humidity are phenomena which will sit in people's minds.
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19 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:
Fairly close to average, actually.
the lows this morning were probably pretty close to average, maybe even a few ticks above but even still, today is probably a good several degrees below average across many areas. Average high for BDL is around 50 and they're at 44. Average high for BTV is 44 and they at 35.
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How one perceives sensible weather is also irrelevant. Data is just that...it is data and doesn't account for personal opinion or feeling. If this March at station x turns out to be +15 for the month and that same station was +15 in 2012, well then this month was just anomalous at that location, regardless of how the +15 resulted.
Today is below-average across the region, however, when looking at it from a sensible approach, some people may find today rather decent, especially with the stronger sun angle. Some people may find today pretty lousy with the chilly wind and colder feel in the shade. But regardless of what one thinks, it doesn't change the fact that today is below-average for where we should be.
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Just now, powderfreak said:
This. There have been plenty of big spring warmth, public can’t remember if it’s Feb-May each year.
People will probably remember years where we had some extreme summer heat (such as 1995) but nobody is going to remember we had a stretch of 70-80+ days in March a decade ago.
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7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:
In other news besides the well above average day time highs this Match we’ve had so far similar to the first half of March 2012…
Minnesota looks to have potential for an all time snowstorm late this weekend.
I was looking at that. The best pattern configuration they've seen all season probably.
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I doubt anyone except us remember March 2012. If you were to ask random people on the street what they thought of the weather in March 2012 they'd be like, "how the hell do I know". Unless you happened to question someone who is somewhat in touch with this stuff.
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37 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:
Local lawn services out in FULL force the last few days in my area. Even my lawn has grown to the point of needing a first cut in a few areas. Need to tune up the tractor this weekend to be ready...
Backyard neighbor was out mowing his lawn the other day. I've noticed patches of newer grass popping up as well. Tree in the front yard and neighbors house next door also have buds. In fact, I noticed buds on one of the trees like 2-3 weeks ago.
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1 minute ago, ma blizzard said:
Agreed! TTs spike to 55-60 right around 0z
Yeah don't see TT values spike that high around these parts very often. Once you start approaching 60 that's a pretty strong signal for thunder/lightning. Generally, we're lucky to see TT's get into the 52-55 range.
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Down to 43 days!!! We're getting there.
This time next month the GFS will be getting past May 1
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Just now, Ginx snewx said:
Mitch had 4.5 last night. Excellent pattern for upslope
wow that's not too shabby. Sometimes these little setups get overlooked, especially this time of year.
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Tomorrow looks interesting with some convective snow squalls and showers with graupel. I could see a quick 2'' in the Berks and southern Greens.
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1 minute ago, tamarack said:
Probably not a coincidence that 104F is 40C.
Yeah right
some mouse running across must have tripped a conversion
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Looks like a bit of a heat burst at SWF overnight
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4 minutes ago, kdxken said:
Red Wing blackbirds have made their first appearance. Seems a bit early.
Flying all the way to the Stanley Cup playoffs?
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
Hopefully the tropics ramp up in June...until then its Fantasy Baseball and yard work.
Tropics are my least knowledgeable area so I'm not entirely sure what to expect.
I mean naturally, if we're progressing towards La Nina you would expect an above-average season. While I don't think the warm waters factors into that aspect, the already well above-average waters are concerning in that should storms develop, they will have alot of fuel available.
Then of course we'll have to see the prospects for landfalling storms.
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Let's just agree that the next few months are going to suck more than not. We'll get some beautiful days mixed in which tells us those days on a more consistent basis are approaching but we all know how springs work around here:
1. We could have a two week stretch of widespread 60's/70's within the region mid-month, higher elevations and northern New England will still have some snow threats well through April. We could get a stretch of 70's/80's and they still will.
2. We are going to have some brutal periods of chilly temperatures, stiff northeast breezes, clouds, showers, heavier rain.
3. We'll have some days with wild weather differences within the region. This will be characterized by periods where we get over the top warmth and NNE is dabbing 70's and lower 80's while SNE is shocked in with some marine crap.
4. We'll have days when portions of SNE are into the 60's and 70's while other parts are backdoored and dealing with 40's and low clouds/drizzle.
We are about to get a mixture of everything through the next 7-8 weeks.
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Gotta love the differences between MAV/MET guidance at BDL/BOS tomorrow
BOS for example
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19 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:
maybe the south coast sees a few bangers Saturday PM/ Sunday AM? Wiz?
don't see much in the way of elevated instability right now
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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:
Thur night hydro concerns have been suggestive for days at this point. imho - I posted about awhile back.
The flood-wick was certainly priming since last summer's rain anomalies. Then a lack of substantive drying since.
Going to be some impressive rainfall totals for sure. Not sure if we see any thunder/lightning but there's a good amount of MUCAPE being modeled with steep mid-level lapse rates. If anything, there will be convective elements locally enhancing rainfall rates. Some of the rates are going to be pretty wild.
March 2024 disco/obs
in New England
Posted
I see what you're saying, this makes sense. Can't disagree with how this is laid out.