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weatherwiz

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About weatherwiz

  • Rank
    2010-2011 is OUR year
  • Birthday 10/28/1988

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KHFD
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Danbury, CT
  • Interests
    Weather

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  1. weatherwiz

    Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

    This is a phenomenal point. I get the fact that at times intensity ratings can be a bit misleading (especially when talking about storm surge/flood potential) but you can't be telling the public to ignore the intensity with one storm and then not ignore it for another storm. There needs to be consistency otherwise the public just gets confused. Also, when saying to ignore intensity one time and not another could also just be an act to cover up an incorrect forecast. For example, with Florence...many were screaming cat 3/4 for landfall but then when it was obvious that wasn't going to happen those cried...well don't focus on the intensity focus on the other aspects. It was pretty clear Florence wouldn't hit as a major but what was clear was the degree of rainfall that would occur. That should have been harped from the get-go.
  2. weatherwiz

    Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

    Thanks. Pretty much reasons that aren’t to figure out. The shallow but very warm waters makes tremendous sense. Would explain why such rapid intensificatiins can occur when there isn’t anything to inhibit weakening
  3. weatherwiz

    Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

    What’s the reasons why there are so many uncertainties with intensities within the GoM?
  4. weatherwiz

    Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

    Well that’s one piece of good news I suppose
  5. weatherwiz

    Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

    What’s the tide situation like? The storm surge I would think is going to be catastrophic in places. Aren’t some of those places like below sea-level?
  6. weatherwiz

    Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

    gotcha. Thank you. 140 mph Just stunned
  7. weatherwiz

    Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

    This makes so much sense. I think WxWatcher007 mentioned similar about outflow from TC showing up as shear. So how would you go about doing that if you were to look at models?
  8. weatherwiz

    Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

    I’ve become so intrigued with tropical intensity the last few months. I mean I know next to nothing but from the little I know (or guess I thought I knew) I thought it wouldn’t get this strong b/c if the dry air around and strong shear. Obviously that meant nothing. So I guess my questions to investigate would be; when does shear matter and when does dry air matter? Im just so curious as to what processes led to the incredible RI we’ve seen this evening
  9. weatherwiz

    Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

    This is very helpful...thank you.
  10. weatherwiz

    Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

    Solid point. Speaking of shear it's still "unfavorable". Question though regarding shear. I have no clue what to look at in terms of on forecast models for wind shear. All I've done is just look at the link I attached but that's just a current snap shot and doesn't indicate how things will evolve over time. What would you look at on models?
  11. weatherwiz

    Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

    IDK...looking at mlvl water imagery there seems to be some decent dry air present in the Gulf and also across the SE US. You would think as a tighter circulation would try and organize it would ingest this. Not saying this won't spike up as new convection tries developing but I think if it would rapidly intensify it would just as rapidly weaken. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northamerica-09-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  12. weatherwiz

    Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

    Excellent post! Very well stated
  13. weatherwiz

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    True
  14. weatherwiz

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Something you don’t see here very often. I remember a setup in the mid-to-late 90’s which was similar. I want to say maybe like 96 or 97. All I remember it being though was during the summer and on a Friday. We had a TOR go up I think around 11:30 AM
  15. weatherwiz

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    I wonder if we could also start seeing a shift in peak maximum...I know now there are two maximums (spring and a weaker one in the fall) but theoretically we should still yield large enough temperature gradients in the NH winter to yield strong shear, however, increasing moisture/CAPE. Perhaps eventually we’ll see bigger numbers geared more towards late fall and into early spring?
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