weatherwiz

Some lightning strikes northwest of Pittsfield!

Nice model difference tomorrow within the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region Some pretty drastic differences at H5 across the country tomorrow.

In another 5 days the 384 HR GFS will be into May!

Thinking wind damage may be the greatest overall threat. Greatest tornado threat probably on the southern flank but it may turn out the southern flank is right along the coast or just off. We'll see how far north the warm front/greatest moisture return can get which should influence northern periphery of the bow/mcs

Hopefully we can get something like this in the next few months

how about this instead

I know its like 3 or 4 weeks too early but I can't help but toggle through the CAPE maps through 384 hours. Its depressing seeing some big CAPE values within the Ohio Valley and sneak into portions of Pennsylvania and then just get poo pooed away but our time is coming.

Are you sticking around Dallas for the severe wx?

I actually may need to make some hot chocolate now. I was only wearing a short-sleeved shirt and a very light jacket. I'm cold now.

Taken at 3:30 PM EDT from Springfield

Had to lay in my back to be able to make this work

All this satellite watching and hoping for full Sun has me geared up for severe wx season.

Just went outside with glasses and can see it!

Thankfully not the same folks that are in charge of rebuilding the Mets

Agreed, only source that matters is USGS.

The magnitude estimates are all over the palce right now...

I didn't feel anything in Springfield but my I just told my girlfriend about it and she felt something. I was in the zone working though.

Isn't the Hurrell NAO method a bit better overall than the CPC's method?

Yup...those will take care of the damaged buildings

Well with how wet the ground is and how damaged the trees are, we're primed to level forests in 6-7 weeks when we hopefully get a derecho to blow through. They better prepare the power grid now.

can't upload without power or internet

For sure.

Agreed. That's why these snow maps and depth maps whatever need to be used with extreme caution. Sure they may "nail" some areas and maybe capture cutoffs and gradients but on the whole picture...they suck. Mid-level structure, evolution, lift, etc are all extremely critical at the end of the day and the snow maps don't factor that stuff in. I am curious what PWM is at right now. I know yesterday both NAM/GFS bufkit were yielding over a foot of snow at PWM using cobb. Actually even using max temp in profile wasn't too far off from cobb.

Do any vendors use cobb technique for displaying snowfall accumulations or is 10:1 and Kuchera the methods of choice?

what a f'ing disaster driving down 91 this morning. Thankfully I use maps so I was aware of the accidents and did detours but people are freaking ridiculous. Driving 80 mph and swerving in/out of lanes.