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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. The pattern end of the month into December is going to be rather interesting and I'm not so sure it works into our favor...I think we're going to have to get a great deal of help from the Pacific and by help something to completely change-up the pattern which looks to evolve. Both the euro and GFS continue to indicate a pretty significant (in terms of strength) jet extension from east Asia to the west coast of the United States...typically not good for us, however, there are a few caveats here...weakness within the flow may yield some Rossby wave breaking and instead of a completely zonal pattern developing we may see a rather highly amplified pattern developing...this is a case where I guess we would want some support from the Arctic...which I guess there are some signals that may happen. The pattern looks to become pretty chaotic and it could also be a fairly warm one too.
  2. Looks like a nice ice storm in western VA
  3. i wish Ryan Maue's site had the Ukie. Only time I ever looked at that model I almost broke my neck trying to interpret it
  4. Speaking of avatar's I miss Kevin's avatar from several years ago of him making a funny face wearing an ugly UCONN sweatshirt but cute shorts. He was standing in front of some building.
  5. That one is probably going to be more highly dependent on a phase with that northern stream energy. If the phase happens in our favor plenty of cold air to tug in and lock in.
  6. This is a pretty wild sounding in NW PA Monday morning lol. Nearly isothermal from 700-500 lol. Moist and a bit unstable below it and about as stable as can be above it...maybe good LES out that way
  7. No I was looking at for 12z Mon.
  8. That could be close to some good icing across central NE...or maybe sleet. 20F and sleet hahaha
  9. also seems like it's not as quick with amplifying it.
  10. Actually on second seems to match the euro quite well. Although I'm not sure if that kink in the 1020 isobar is really related to where the cold front least based on streamlines anyways...
  11. It's just odd b/c how the isobars are laid out does not match guidance at all. I don't even think a blend of guidance would yield that.
  12. the front is also going to become somewhat aligned (parallel) with the flow aloft as it's moving through. This would result in a slower FROPA through the region...and likely stall a bit somewhere....perhaps just off the coast which is what typically happens. not saying we see a significant snow event, but I'm wondering if the set-up favors some ana frontal precip given there is still a connection to the GoM (with some connection to the PAC) with the SW flow in mlvls transporting moisture.
  13. What's interesting is the WPC has the front much farther south and east 12z Monday then what models advertise. Looks like the trough amplifies too far west and heights quickly build ahead of it and that pushes a warm front north and pushes the baroclinic zone farther northwest. Then we get low development along it, it becomes closed off and boom...we all know what closed off low to the west means. I was reading something...yesterday actually where models seem to struggle mightily during these -EPO regimes with placement of the front along the EC and are typically too far NW. The one big difference too between today and next week is there is a cold enough airmass already in place...but it just gets shoved out. Anyways it's just interesting where the WPC has the placement of the front in relation to the models. So if there is a possibility the models are too far NW with the baroclinic zone...this potential may not totally be over. Could this also be a scenario where models are too quick with lifting the warmer airmass north? Maybe there is still room for freezing rain across CNE and valley areas where cold air can be wedged a bit longer?
  14. Ok this drives me nuts. there is the option for 20th century re-analysis but you can only go to 2015... the top link goes to present day but start at 1948... HOW ARE YOU SUPPOSED TO CREATE A SET OF COMPOSITES TO INCLUDE ANY LIST OF YEARS FROM 1854-PRESENT???
  15. that's what I was referring too a page or so back
  16. What I really, really want to do and have been wanting to do for nearly the past decade is take the daily values of the NAO, AO, PNA (and whatever other indices daily values are available for) and create like a weekly or bi-weekly dataset. I know looking at height fields is the way to go, but the raw numbers do provide some of the values is you can quickly see transitions then view that period visually. Doing so though is not as easy as just adding up two weeks of values and dividing by 14. I'm thinking of emailing someone at CPC for perhaps some input. Anyways with the seasonal forecasting discussion, I don't think it gets the respect it deserves. In reality, seasonal forecasting can be more accurate than forecasting 3-days out. Utilizing all the data available, understanding climo, and how the atmosphere sorta of works can provide tremendous insight into how the atmosphere may evolve moving forward...and there is tremendous success in doing so. Only issue is when someone forecasts a "great" pattern 7-weeks out and that pattern doesn't produce snow it's called a bust...even though the pattern verified. It's one thing to forecast patterns, but that pattern producing is dependent on numerous other factors which aren't necessarily tied into the overall pattern.
  17. beyond 150+ hours out. The GFS has been a bit consistent with this development. I think the 0z Euro may be the first run of the euro to show it. Not sure what relevance this holds but the GFS has been pretty good this summer/early fall with GoM low pressure developments.
  18. While the Euro doesn't go out this far there have been some signals the pattern may change heading into December and even the Euro towards the end of it's run looks to be developing a pretty strong jet extension from off the Asian continent to the west coast of the US...that would probably flood much of the US with zonal flow and some degree of warmth...would need significant help from the AO/NAO to suppress heights this way..that could also result in a nice little battle ground here with a congrats to NNE
  19. beginning Nov 1 the algorithm in his thermometer is switched to be colder