calculus1

Big bust on the rainfall forecast today. NWS said less than a tenth of an inch today as recent as 8 AM. I have 0.4 inch and counting. That’s 400% more than what was forecast.

We never seem to bust in that direction with snowfall, unfortunately.


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Wow! Heavy sleet just started here IMBY. Large sleet pellets. It's official wintry precipitation IMBY. Wow.

@jburns , great to hear from you! I remember those grill pictures from the great Archdale snow. I doubt we have another of those in our near future, but we can dream!


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Visiting family in Black Mountain. Just had a nice graupel shower come through. It looks like it’s coming down hard up in the Craggies on the BRP, which we can see from the valley here.


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Look at the IMBY stats in my signature. The last five winters (counting this one) have been miserable in Hickory, NC. The previous six were really good. The two before that were horrible. (I can’t go back further because I didn’t live in the same spot prior to that point.) Seems rather cyclical to me for my admittedly few years worth of data.

I’m not sure why a five-year period of below normal snowfall means that our local expectations should drastically change. Five years in the span of eons is less than a blip. Thus, I’m not willing to pronounce permanent change based on that minor amount of evidence. This stretch sucks, but I bet we string together another good run of winters in the near future. We might have to wait a couple more years, though. Who knows?

Maybe we only have to wait another week or so, if the ECMWF is right…

I hardly ever hear the word verbatim used in normal everyday conversation. But we weather geeks sure do like to throw it around with impunity. 

Let me offer a few alternatives for those wanting to change it up from time to time:

”If the model output were to come to fruition…”

”If the model output were to become reality…”

”Taken literally…”

”If the model output were to be unembellished…”

”If reality were undeviating from the model prediction…”

Or if you really want to win friends and influence people, you can go with:

”Taken punctiliously…”

Carry on and let it snow.

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

Yep and it drives me nuts. I can totally understand how those down east or in Ga would want to avoid the heat, but locally, nothing is worse than 7pm+ sunsets with rain 5/7 days per week and needing to keep the sweats and jackets on the closet rack in May. Even worse, that pattern has been almost exclusive to NC, SC and southern VA the past few years.

I’m on the other end of the spectrum from you, @BooneWX. Give me 50s, 60s, and 70s as long as possible. I don’t want any 80s, 90s, or 100s even if it’s the middle of July. If it takes rain showers to keep the temp down, I’m in.

Of course, our preferences really have nothing to do with it, though, as they have no bearing on the actual weather…. 

I’m hanging on until March 15. The legacy of 1993 is imprinted on my memory. It was a unicorn storm, but something similar will happen again one day - probably after I am dead and buried.


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So, I was wrong. I assumed the low was around 16 (and I just ballparked it), because that was the temp when I checked close to 8 AM. Based on your comments above, I went back to verify and found the actual low was 11.8 F at 6:44 AM. So, almost single digits, but not quite.

As far as my distance from Lake Hickory, I am somewhere between 1 and 1.5 miles away, as the crow flies, from the nearest point to me on the southern shore of the lake. I wonder if concrete and asphalt have a greater effect on my temperature than does the lake itself.

Much colder out in the rural locales, it seems. I only made it down to 16 F.

Been in Morehead City for the past couple of days. Got home this evening. High temp at the house was only 27.8 F today. Already down to 17.3 F. Gonna be a cold one…

23 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Nice pics yall! I'm headed up to the AT predawn with TM. We'll see if we can keep our batteries thawed!

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TM?

36 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Oh yeah, thanks for asking. Trust you are as well. btw is jburns still around on the board? 

I asked that recently too, @BIG FROSTY. Didn’t get a response, so I’m guessing he’s not on here anymore.

730 days since an inch or more of snowfall IMBY: 5.5 inches on January 16, 2022.

I had no idea at that time how long I would have to wait to see any additional significant snowfall IMBY. Still waiting...

It's pretty sad when there are virtually no prior winter weather events to speak of for the past several years on the NWS Raleigh Past Events page:

Sleeting now here in northern Catawba County. 

Just now, BooneWX said:

Moderate sleet with snow mixed in near Lenoir

You have nice slug of moisture heading your way, according to radar. Still nada here in Hickory.

I have yet to see a flake IMBY, but my wife said she saw a few out and about driving around.

58 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

42.6 IMBY at the moment.

Now at 40.2.

42.6 IMBY at the moment.

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Maybe but it's not looking good for yall. Yall going to get downsloped like a mofo.

Like a dagger to the heart @Met1985 . 


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Hey! The foothills thread! King of downsloping! That’s where it’s at! Living in the shadow of the Apps…


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Closed with 4.26 inches IMBY. Hit the “over”!

@wncsnow, how did we all do with our bets?

I think @strongwxnc may be the only “under” that hit, right?

Just found an article on WCNC:

https://www.wcnc.com/article/weather/severe-weather/claremont-nc-local-deadly-severe-weather/275-98ae98cc-e989-4632-aae9-6fc2e4f18d98

Just now, Buckethead said:

I'm hearing that a tornado may have crossed over I40 in Catawba County. Command center setup at Claremont FD.

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Yeah, I have a colleague whose husband works in the sheriff's department here. Supposedly it went through a mobile home park. One confirmed death and multiple people trapped in their residences, according to her.

How do tornadoes seem to always find mobile home parks?

2 hours ago, calculus1 said:

Just broke the 1.70 mark a short while ago. Four is within reach, but I was honestly expecting more by now. We will see...

This didn't age well...

Pouring buckets and I am over the 3.5-inch mark and closing in on 4.