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danstorm

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by danstorm

  1. This is a healing thread for snow-starved weens around the Megalopolis.

    I'm taking my family up to Lake Placid/Saranac Lake this weekend and can't wait to get out in the depths.  I need some snow in my life and I have no problem traveling for it.

    • Like 1
  2. 17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

    My man!   How’s it going?  

    Hey man, looooong time!!!

    I'm good, living the dream in the NYC suburbs with my wife and two beautiful kids - Levi is almost 6 and Sadie is 3.

    Not working as a met though I still have a side business I founded in the space.  Work in analytics in the city for a financial services consultancy.  Too many hours but what can you do, Montclair is expensive.

    How are you? Was up in your neck of the woods a few weeks back meeting with a few of our asset management clients in Boston.  

    What a shit-tastic winter we are having, eh? My town lucked out with 6" (local max for the NYC Metro) from the early Dec storm that hit CNE very hard, then had a large ice storm later that month... since then, it's been a fight between rain, torch, and just regular above normal temps.  Of course you guys know that as you've been experiencing the same.

  3. 3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

    If the GEFS is correct about the next 16 days, there will not be any BN day after today in its purview.         This would mean just 5 BN days out of a 48 day period had just occured---which happened to commence with the first day of calendar winter.  

    DT seems to be saying, "Print out the rest of the winter and WYA  with it.        When you are done doing that,  you can wipe your nose with it.       You might want to reverse that.

    Another day older and deeper in do-doo.        Really amazing how the best analog starts after one of best extended periods in modern winter history around here.    Bookend snowstorms,  a -2 morning and 16 straight sub 32* Highs.     Jan. 19---Feb. 04 1961.

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

       

    Just curious, do you ever follow day to day weather or do you wake up dreaming of the GEFS temperature projections relative to normal?

    Doesn't it get old?

    • Like 3
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    • Haha 2
  4. 12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

    Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 76% probability of a warmer than normal January.

     

     

    Don, always enjoy your posts and analysis.

    However, can you elaborate on the method by which you determined a 76% probability of finishing above normal?

    Seems way too low, considering we'll be roughly +10 at month's midpoint.  Is there really a 24% chance of the back half of the month having a departure <-10?

     

    • Like 2
  5. 47 minutes ago, doncat said:

    The problem is some posters are just a broken record...same thing every post. Ever notice how with some, you know what they posted even before you read it lol.. It's amazing how well that works for some.

     


    Posters here are like cartoon characters of themselves.  Same well-worn tropes day after day.  

    • Like 5
  6. 17 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

    Simplistic, but valid points

    cold or warm, the pattern isnt there for the NYC metro to get snow. It has been like that for a year.

    My parents live in Whitestone. They have not had any appreciable snow on the ground that lasted more than a day or two coming up on 2 years

     

    Last year, even the November storm was gone in less than 24 hours. They had a light accumulation in March that stuck around for a few days

     

    Lost in snow totals that get washed away, is the fact that most of NYC has not had prolonged snow cover since March 2018.

     

    That is a terrible pattern. And it shows no signs of changing

    This is hyperbolic - you’re essentially griping about 4 consecutive winter months  - Dec-Feb last hear and Dec this year without sustained snow cover.

    Do you realize how many times such a stretch has occurred in NYC in its history?

    • Like 8
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  7. 4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

    Guys it still manages to hit us with 3-6 that’s not too bad for December 1-2nd 

    I actually gave up on it, you're right, there is a period of snow at 51-57 hr that may salvage a decent event.  

    We'll see - certainly doesn't seem to come together fast enough 

  8. TWC went out of their way to downplay it. That's why you can't always hog one model and my argument to Kevin back on Saturday about the GFS. Yes the GFS can be wrong, but in this case along with a little bit of pattern recognition...I thought going 24-36 for NYC was a bit much.

     

    Agreed... the NWS came into the NYC forum to clarify that the 24-36" shading really meant 24-30... anyway, when your low amount is already a top 3 storm for the city, it's tough to justify.  18-24", hell, even 12-18 will get the public's attention! And you can always ramp up gradually if need be, and no one will notice. 

     

    People at work were just throwing out, "well, it looks like 3 feet for the city", as if that is something that is so easy to attain.  That 24-36" range is a 1/50 - 1/200 year event for the city.

     

    Not irresponsible, and certainly could have occurred (I was always skeptical for NJ), but let's just say overzealous.

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