Jump to content

blizzardmeiser

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    524

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by blizzardmeiser

    Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    The only 

    11 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

    We spent weeks and weeks posting tons of maps and analysis about a late Feb “epic” pattern that was totally fictional. Not only was it fictional; but we are literally in the 50’s and 60’s with rain into Canada. I’m just not seeing any science behind any of this. I am also not seeing much “ Mea culpa” and pause being given into how wrong it at was and learning from it to forecast better in the future. That frustrates me how Mets are just so wrong and move on like they didn’t make major mistakes.. 

    I didnt see any Mets pushing an epic pattern.  What you are referring to are folks on this board posting 384hr maps that showed a great pattern.  We all know people should tread carefully with LR guidance, especially given how poor LR models perform. 

    Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

    Ehh it's not odd. It's depressing snow news and folks have their reactions and just have to deal with bad news their own way. It's ain't you, lol Just a classic "Don't shoot the messenger". 

    Bottom line is we're all gonna have to find a way to live with whatever the new reality is...I mean, what else can we do? I still think after some more time we'll kinda get used to it and be that much more appreciative of what we get. Just gotta let go of the loftier snow notions, it seems...

    Models cant get next week right, don't worry about next winter. Not worth it. 

    Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

    Eh, I think we overachieved in those two January events. This one trended south but it was a nothing down here. I got maybe .3 of snow. Maybe if you were closer to the MD/PA line.

    But in a Nino, having two northern stream events give you 4-5 inches each and basically nothing else is depressing.

    I also think the pattern being shown vanishing was so frustrating because the pattern was unfolding quite similarly to other Nino's where you get a January thaw and then things reload. Now, they maybe were reloading a couple weeks later than usual, but it followed the general pattern of our good years. Plus, PSU knows his stuff and is always optimistic yet cautious but really liked this period. He isn't usually wrong. Maybe things turn around and we still get lucky and he turns out right. I would just like my kids, who are now 9 and 6, to actually get to enjoy a real snowstorm as a kid.

    It did look that way but it changed pretty quickly. I think if we get to March 10th with nothing then its a concern but I still believe we have opportunities over the next few weeks. Some might be disappointed if not a HECS but I'm good with a few more decent events.

    • Like 1

    Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

    I think some of it is psychological. There was so much hype about this perfect period coming up. People saying it had the same look as February 2010, etc. I am not saying I or others expected a repeat, but I think we all thought we would be tracking non-stop and there would be some chances at a HECS. That's just all vanished, and given it is basically looking out to the end of February on the models, that is grim.

    Also, I thought bobchill had a great point about how a winter can have a personality, and this one has been one of missed opportunities and things really never just quite lining up for us. Is that something that is suddenly going to change? Maybe! But probably not, lol.

    We could also make the argument we overachieved in the storms we did receive.  3 times we saw a southern trend verify.  When does that ever happen.  I agree some folks were throwing out Feb 2010 but it was still always a few weeks away.  So we lost a pattern that we only thought would happen 15 days out.  Not the same as losing a storm within a few days. Besides was Chill ever on board for this pattern? Someone said only take it serious when Chill shows up.  Some truth to that.

    2/13 rain to snow event

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

    Put this in the other thread.  Seems all the models have shifted the low a touch east over the past day or so.

    floop-18z-3k-nam4km-2024021218.ref1km_ptype.conus-02122024.gif

     

    2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

    Put this in the other thread.  Seems all the models have shifted the low a touch east over the past day or so.

    floop-18z-3k-nam4km-2024021218.ref1km_ptype.conus-02122024.gif

    WWA posted for Baltimore and Washington 

×
×
  • Create New...