Dunkman

I wasn’t really expecting to get pelted by sleet my entire run this morning. I guess it’s better than rain or nothing? I should always assume it can sleet.

I mean if Boone can’t get snow to stick there’s not much hope for the rest of us.

Trees here in the Triad are maybe a little more shiny than they usually are in the rain. I wouldn’t say freezing rain but maybe sticky rain?

Blinding graupel storm was not in my lunch run forecast.

Oh yeah now the wedge over performs like crazy. It’s 39 here now.

Ended up with 1.75” here which was honestly more than I thought looking at it. Just under 10” for the season (counting sleet) without ever having 2” of actual snow at once.

Still mostly just rain here. Wasting some of our very limited precipitation.

1 minute ago, jlh said:

Something that was discussed at one of the mid-atlantic NWS offices this morning. Can't remember if it was AKQ or further north but they mentioned the dynamics playing to an earlier phase.

It would make a lot more of a difference for them than us I think.

The play by play on that NAM was really something.

I really hate this hobby sometimes

I’m gonna feel some kind of a way if we go through this pattern without getting more than 2” of snow here for the first time since 2018 (that brick of sleet on my porch doesn’t count).

5 minutes ago, Justicebork said:

Hopefully the precip is not as mixed as the messages here.

Well the first thump was better on the NAM but the 2nd one looks squished. Thus the mixed messages. It’s hard to put much stock into the NAM until it shows some consistency.

Umm the roads here have a 4-5” thick sheet of ice on them.

906 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Accumulating snow and freezing rain has ended. Areas of
  black ice possible through early Monday morning.

* WHERE...Portions of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Monday.

22 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

What a sounding. Classic sleet storm in the Triad. Going to take ages to melt this glacier

I can’t believe how much sleet we have. It’s been pouring sleet for hours and hours. Hopefully we miss out on most of the ZR?

Some weird reports but I see no evidence of anything but sleet here in High Point right now.

mPING is a mess in central NC. I don’t know what people are doing but I’ve seen plain rain reported where it’s 22 degrees and snow in places where it hasn’t snowed in 4 hours.

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The Hi Res NAM and Nam is general sucked for this storm

Yeah people seem to remember the NAM wins and forget the miserable showings in between.

HRRR seems promising for limiting ZR accumulation in NC. Hopefully it’s not too bad.

Changing over here right now in north High Point. 1.5” of snow, maybe 2 if I’m being generous. 

Really rooting for the upstate people. Someone needs to get a good event out of this outside of the mountains!

10 minutes ago, wake4est said:

New from RAH 

They’re usually very conservative I’m happy to see those snow numbers so high after today’s runs.

26 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

In the storm thread: Raleigh this, Raleigh that. Raleigh, Raleigh, Raleigh. 

Yeah I don’t think that’s the reason it’s so quiet. Every suite of models has been worse than the one before it for like 4 days. Eventually it just gets depressing.

16 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Any of you guys have a davis weather station or some similar? I've been thinking of getting one for months but might bite the bullet and do it. Any recommendations?

I always thought the weather flow tempest looked really neat but I don’t have one.

It’s kind of amazing that we’re gonna miss again. It’s been since 2018. This is how long we went between good snows when I grew up in Beaufort. 

Just as long as it’s not ZR here I won’t complain. Most of my house has Covid right now and the prospect of dealing with no power and falling trees is a little overwhelming (we’re all vaccinated and fine but still).

1 minute ago, Beach Snow said:

Ryan Maue tweeting don’t look at NAM and look at RGEM. Says upgraded and better. RGEM is certainly more north of NAM but also was 18z last run

My experience has been the RGEM seems to do well farther north but has a pretty lousy track record figuring out p-type for winter storms in our region. That said I doubt we’ve had a winter storm to track here since it upgraded so who knows.