WeatherNC
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RGEM now showing ZR here tomorrow night, that's a nice change. Could be around lunchtime on Saturday before we have a sub zero column.
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ORF to GSP, great run if you are west of that line, Richmond gets smoked.
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Should we be concerned that the short range ensemble forecast products are now jackpotting central VA?
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Yeah, I would pick the NAM too.
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Soundings look like solid IP, several inches worth.
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It's sleeting out currently, sign of things to come?
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I am split between Roxboro and Ahoskie - Gatesville, still some time but the logistics are different. Roxboro I would leave tomorrow night and stay overnight, come back Saturday evening. NE NC I will leave Saturday before sun up and just come back in the evening. Merchants Millpond is always open so that has me interested plus a nice blend of outdoor activities, good Jeb walk material. I think the chance of seeing a foot is moderate which is enough for sails up.
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I find that the UK and Ecmwf can over amplify things inside a day or two, NAM too, atleast that is what I am telling myself right now.
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Only thing going for me is a 4x4 and a full tank of gas.
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GFS soundings are all snow at PGV, don't have the off hours but atleast from 42-54hrs. NAM is shorts weather, I will ride the GFS until the Euro tells me to break out the sun screen here in a few.
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Given the strength (or lack there of) of the SLP and proximity to the coast, I am going to call BS (at the moment) on these SN IP ZR transition zones, it is either going to be rain or snow with a slim corridor of mixing. This fits climo of a Miller A.
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I think PGV is screwed, advisory type deal.
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Greenville gets blanked on the 12z RGEM too, nice
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NAM has basically no snow here, I think it's time to start panicking
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Atleast on the GFS we are good here for the duration, about 25 miles to spare. The strength of the low and absence of a bonified 850 are keeping the warm punch in check. I would give caution though to folks using those stock 10:1 snow maps, the snow flag does not descrimnate between IP ZR or SN.
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Wrong Forum? Maybe twitter?
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NAM must have got wind of that Winter Storm Watch WFO Birmingham issued.
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I do think wide spread single digits are likely Sunday night, I can count on one hand that occurrence here over the past 12 years.
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Kind of concerned that the 15z SREF mean for RWI is 1" with only a couple NMBs biting.
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What a terd
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EE rule, lock it up... Dependent on the changeover with meager QPF, feel like I have seen this show before, somewhere.
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Funny how the guidance is starting to converge on a middle of the road solution, split between the two extremes we saw this weekend, insanity, I know. Anxiously awaiting the ensuing panic once the slight NW correction sets in inside 48.
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I miss a good old fashioned warm punch centered around 900mb, 2-3C will check expectations quickly for those fortunate enough.
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Much more and you could be mixing too..
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Is it too soon to start talking about 850 track?