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Everything posted by WeatherNC

  1. One can only hope. Hard to get a Gulf tap though with a 500mb trough cutting through the northern extent of the Cumberland Plateau.
  2. You should setup shop in Johnson City man.
  3. Anything to get the stench out of the local Wilkesboro Utilities supply man.
  4. Euro is spitting hundredths where as most of us are looking for something in the tenths.
  5. Since we are punting for the next ~3 weeks, a look at the big 3 12z ens means at H5. Unsure if this is still cool or we are holding out for metaphysical accumulations in the upstate this weekend. PAC looks like ass, AO should hold slightly neg, NAO around neutral, MJO ( would argue temps avg close to normal throughout the period, with a above normal period thereafter, any real potential being close to Feb 1st and beyond. I would keep an eye on the 23-24th, doubt the setup is there for the deep south but the MA and NE could cash in if we do in fact get a storm.
  6. At the closest reporting station it was about 6 degrees off however there were pockets of -3 to -4 today in the county. I saw -1 at 8am at the same spot Shaggy had -4 an hour earlier. Per the latest sticks, 3.25-3.5" of snow cover in open areas, still not crusted on the top. We should avg about 2-3 degrees colder tonight just eyeballing dewpoints and NAM/ECMWF output. My guess is the -4 record at Greenville is safe but not secure.
  7. Took a quick drive, 0 was the avg but I picked up a few -1’s, ‘this was around 8am so one has to think the microclimates were closer to -3 to -4 around sunrise. Tomorrow I need to get up earlier.
  8. Truck sensor hit 5 on Bell Arthur Rd about a mile away, 9 in the driveway. Think the airport hits 4 tonight and makes a run at zero tomorrow night. Still 3-4” of snow on the ground in open areas of the front and backyard where it didn’t drift as much. State roads are pretty good, anything off the primaries is ice, real bad...
  9. I heard and saw reports from this afternoon / early evening with that central NC band and the size of the dendrites were a lot bigger than what we are currently seeing. Unless this goes to crap quick some impressive totals are going to come out along the central and northern inner banks.
  10. I am also around 3” between Greenville and FarmVille, been under ~30dbz returns for the past hour. Estimate 1”hr rates, minor drifting.
  11. Jacksonville has to be getting crushed right now, you can see the gravity waves on the MHX site along the crystal coast. 700mb fronto map posted in the MA sub looks good for the coastal plain
  12. Agree, rates have picked up but it is not due to an increase on flake size. RAX does look impressive with that slug coming up through the southern coastal plain and bands converging over Pitt. Would like to see it hold that edge west of 95 for the next couple hours and maybe get some semblance of a deform axis.
  13. Knock on wood, but I don’t see any crazy ATL convection yet like the high res NAMs were showing. Looks like a solid fetch in to the HWY 17 corridor.
  14. West of town has flipped, still light, east of town is still mixing. Hard to see us getting more than a couple inches based on radar, hope I am wrong.
  15. -IP/-ZR, SN line is about 10 miles west and not budging yet.
  16. In that HRRR graphic above, the heaviest axis is usually oriented SW to NE, not N to S. Just seems unusual to see it like that.
  17. East of 95, SN line is currently running from about Rose Hill up to Snow Hill and Scotland Neck. Expected to me in the dendrites at this point, -ZR/-IP. That band from Southern Pines to Hillsborough is looking pretty good.
  18. -IP leaving work, maybe a few RN drops mixed in.
  19. Down to 12/9, expect this the bottom or close to it. Forecast low was 13
  20. 0z RGEM is neg tilt around Appalachia Bay at 18hrs, similar to 18z at H5 +24, maybe a little bit more aggressive with energy entering the leading shortwave on the backside. At 24hrs the H5 look is much more volatile compared to 18z, 3 southern vorts trying to hook up but not there. 18z was more consolidated with the package.
  21. Just to cover the bases, have you looked at soundings and taken a partial thickness top down approach?
  22. 700mb VV and Heights, that's a nice deform band along 95 in to the northern coastal plain.