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Posts posted by WeatherNC

  1. I'm in Birmingham this week and next for work, not a big SVR guy,  prefer heavy snow, but somewhat concerned and at he same time a little pumped for what may be my 2nd time ever in a Day 1 High risk.  The Boran model posted earlier is a private model from my understanding, based on the WRF and around a 2km res through 60hrs.  The precip plots from the ECMWF strongly indicates discrete and long tracked cells. 

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  2. 21 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

    Take a step back, so what features are present that would either block the LP up the coast (dont see anything) and draw it back with a phase? (Thought we gave up on that already?)  Something has to be there for the models to keep hinting at a coastal.  I'm certainly not a modelologist so I'll sit back and learn.  

    Look at your 500mb vorticity evolution preferably on a site like Nexlab where you can slide the panels back and forth.  There’s an 850 too, would like to see it more tucked in to the coast which means H5 needs to sharper and tune a little sooner.

  3. 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

    50-100 miles NW over two days.  When does that not happen? Lol. If I was in downeast, Shaggy, and weatherNc country, I’d be super excited!  Maybe even eastern Wake could end up picking up a sprinkle.

    Watch us get the coastal but miss out on boundary layer temps.  I just don’t see how it will be cold enough for anything but rain, height falls in whatever semblance of a conveyer are not sharp enough.

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  4. Next weekend has my interest for the MA, to a point where tentative PTO for 1/21 was submitted yesterday and the current chase envelope includes PA.  I am not driving that far for 16-20" though, need a solid 2' hatch with guidance painting 30"+ lollipops.  At H5 its not far off, just need that PV lobe in Quebec to keep distance.  Big dogs often come at the bookends of a pattern change.

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  5. Really really nice LR run of the 12z GFS, 1/19-1/21 is very close to a sig winter storm for the eastern US, not far off from being a long wave axis going neg tilt ivo the MS river.  Then another chance, albeit less impressive at H5 on 1/23, wrapping up with a lobe of the PV in SE Canada with energy entering MT.

  6. 2 hours ago, Rankin5150 said:

    I am sure you have already posted this, but what was the final total up there? Hoping you ended up in a great spot! 

    20" was the measurement this morning after the back-end bonus stopped.  We had 18-19" yesterday and picked up another 4" this morning.  With compaction 20" was the most uniform measurement.  Back safely in Greenville, 421-40 were not bad, primary hazard is idiots driving with mini icebergs on their cars.



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