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LovingGulfLows

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Everything posted by LovingGulfLows

  1. LovingGulfLows
    Hope so. That was the last time I've experienced Thundersnow. That being said, the ULL seems to open up on most of the models as it heads southeastward.
  2. LovingGulfLows
    Not with that western ridge positioning. Not seeing too much potential here personally.
  3. LovingGulfLows
    Accuweather is worse....all they literally talk about is the NE...even when the storm here was imminent, their main graphic was Northeast totals and expectations....
  4. LovingGulfLows
    The HRRR and NAM both are pretty aggressive with the backend snow tonight. Hope it verifies. I might actually get accumulating snow for the first time in almost 4 years.
  5. LovingGulfLows
    IMO the RGEM/NAM 3km combo about 24 hours out is super good. Has done well this storm and the January storm.
  6. LovingGulfLows
    It doesn't really matter to me...looking at temp profiles, I'd be rain anyway....perhaps the drier air could help me cool down some.
  7. LovingGulfLows
    Pretty large dry slot going through GA right now...was this modeled?
  8. LovingGulfLows
    The meso low is present on the surface maps right now. You can see a warm front pushing against the arctic front in SC and parts of NC. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc-zoom.php
  9. LovingGulfLows
    This is hour 18 on the 23z.
  10. LovingGulfLows
    HRRR is kind of a disaster for almost all of NC...why did it warm so much???
  11. LovingGulfLows
    Well it looks like this time around, they're diverging. HRRR trending slightly cooler and NAM is trending slightly warmer. HRRR is way better for the Atlanta area than the recent 18z NAM run/
  12. LovingGulfLows
    It's called climatology. Now large parts of the Atlanta metro is even struggling with 850 mb temps. Not surprised. It looks really similar to January's storm.
  13. LovingGulfLows
    Surprised you're still so hung up on the GEFS...it was a huge failure last winter. Every member had me getting at least 2 inches of snow in the January storm. Nada.
  14. LovingGulfLows
    Seriously, the RAP did the same thing in January. Showed my area getting heavy snowfall through dynamic cooling; In the end, nothing but rain with some sleet mixed in all day and snow showers and flurries the last hour or two. It puts too much emphasis on cooling the colomn along with overestimating the rates of precipitation. There's not going to be a wide area where rates overcome 35-37 degree temperatures.
  15. LovingGulfLows
    The RAP always seems colder than actuality with these winter storms. Wouldn't put much hope into it. I'd go with the NAM 3km and the HRRR for my goto hi-res models when it comes to warm noses and thermal profiles. The RGEM also tends to do fairly well. The RGEM/NAM 3km combo nailed the big bust in January.
  16. LovingGulfLows
    Not really. Some mixing issues at the start, but quickly changes over to snow before the heaviest precip gets there so a good event for Atlanta in honesty. Of course, this is only based on the 18z 3KM NAM model run.
  17. LovingGulfLows
    I-85 storm to a tee from Alabama through NC with the widest part of the axis through GA.
  18. LovingGulfLows
    Yeah that's odd. Even on the projected radar of the 3KM NAM, those areas are rain pretty much through hour 60. Here's the projected radar at hour 56 on the 3km. Not sure where that snowfall on that map is coming from for the eastern half of NC.
  19. LovingGulfLows
    I love the look of the 3km NAM for my area. Snow from Hour 47-56 so far. EDIT: Looks like snow fom Hour 47-58, then scattered snow showers and flurries after. Don't seem to have much problems with mixing or warm nose...last year, 3KM NAM showed the eventual mixing issues I would have.
  20. LovingGulfLows
    Euro adds to yet another model showing that warm bubble in East GA/Upstate SC lol. Limiting any real chance of decent accumulation there. Everything I'm seeing says you want to either be North or West of Atlanta when this thing hits. Sucks for me and other East metro residents, but not surprised.
  21. LovingGulfLows
    Might actually be decent for the Atlanta area this time around. In the January 2017 storm, the 850 mb low went slightly to the north of Atlanta if I recall so the warmer 850 winds are coming in from the southwest and could never change over quickly enough. If it actually goes South of Atlanta, I might be a little more confident this time around.
  22. LovingGulfLows
    Literally every model shows the warmer air in Athens/East GA area....the cold air simply can't make it over the mountains fast enough during the heart of the storm.
  23. LovingGulfLows
    If we learned anything from January this year, warm noses are not easy to "scour out". I'd be very skeptical of models showing heavy snow through dynamic cooling.
  24. LovingGulfLows
    Yeah that is true. Kind of sucks that I lost so much sleep watching this system via models over the last few days and get nothing for it, but a ton of cold rain.
  25. LovingGulfLows
    You should take a weekend trip to the mountains with her.
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