snowfan789

I don’t mean to be a troll but feel that I must ask, how’d your November 2018 forecast turn out? I remember you calling for a relatively good stretch of winter-like weather in the CO Front Range. How’d your winter forecast last year turn out? I recall you calling for a mostly cold winter in the Great Basin region. Your contributions are appreciated but if you’re going to make forecasts then it only seems fair to report back on their accuracy so that readers can evaluate the credibility of later forecasts. Yes I am not happy to read a discouraging outlook from you for at least some of CO for December but the point and questions stand.

Thanks, Finnster. Your contributions here and elsewhere are appreciated. I do think the above average snowpack in the mountains so far is worth stressing — and being thankful for. That’s hugely important and we’ve got that — so far. Snow lower down would be nice too, though. I am selfishly- speaking sick of these east coast storms again and again, year after year, while we remain dry dry dry.

Very frustrating how Denver and most spots nearby outside the high mountains keep not getting snow. All hope for at least next few weeks seems to have been lost. Meanwhile the mountains are doing well (thankfully), Cheyenne has had near normal snowfall https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=CLI&issuedby=CYS; Pueblo has had near normal snowfall https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=CLI&issuedby=PUBl; and Wichita is above normal. There must be a snow force field over us even though we are “due” statistically for an ok winter if not better, given the terrible preceding two years.

Not encouraging. I wonder if the Southwest dryness is attributable in part to the northward shift of the jet (stemming at least in part from climate change) and in part a weaker summer monsoon overall (also climate change-related?)? On the other hand, Denver seems to have historically experienced fairly prolonged stretches of bad winters, then good winters, then back again, and so on. Not sure the past few bad years are necessarily indicative of a new trend.

My stated enthusiasm from a few days ago has been tempered. Why has it been so hard to get snow in the Front Range during the past few years? Seriously, why? We average about 55” a year and there has been good moisture nearby at times, like the adjacent mountains for much of the 2016-17 winter and also a decent chunk of this snow season so far.

This upcoming pattern has snowy potential in the Front Range. So does December says the (unreliable) CFS today. This could easily change tomorrow of course.

For virtually all of NM and the Front Range of CO, El Niño pretty clearly appears to be good for snow, though it is no guarantee, of course. For the CO mountains, it is more complicated.

Think there’s a chance of a December 2006-type pattern repeating itself next month in the Southwest and Front Range of Colorado? Still hard to know what to realistically hope for and expect this winter around Denver when different frequently-cited analogs had such different winters, in terms of snowfall, in the Front Range urban corridor. More generally, hard to know what to hope for as a snow-lover living in the Front Range when it comes to various indices, e.g., PNA, PDO, NAO, AMO, etc. This was way more clear-cut when I used to live in New England (e.g., a negative NAO and positive PNA generally = good for snow and cold).

Okay. Thanks. Are you planning to put out a winter forecast that includes analysis? I ask in part out of sheer curiosity and in part because some of the analog years you and others have thrown around were pretty good snow years for Denver and, more generally, Denver has had some pretty snowy weak Nino winters (Nina generally worries me more in the front range).

Is your prediction about Denver’s winter just based on your gut sense or instead based on an actual correlation between Albuquerque vs Denver temps in September and Denver winter precipitation and/or temps? I live close to Denver and am not enthused by how warm the past few weeks have been but am unaware of evidence showing that this merits hitting the panic button. Denver has had plenty of snowy winters after snowless Septembers: http://www.thorntonweather.com/noaa/snow.php

Any reports from the Berkshires? I used to live in Williamstown and am thinking that corridor may have taken the grand prize for the storm.