snowfan789

So 3/4 = bad for eastern CO. Hoping for the upper left box in March and April!

Nice! Not quite so dramatic due west of town but still better than expected until recent model trends got me excited. About 3.5” currently (estimate).

Interesting thoughts. I don’t know if this has been your experience but your post reminded me that, at least on the far west side of Denver, we actually would be a little above normal for snow this year had a slightly too warm November precipitation event and a just barely cold enough January snow event come in a world where temps were 2-3 degrees lower. I fear that climate change is going to mean more and more wet events and fewer and fewer snowy ones as time progresses. With that said, the source of the persistent dryness in the Front Range (a few lucky spots like my house and Boulder aside) is more perplexing. Where have the big moist upslope storms gone? I’m not asking you specifically but do wonder. It’s been almost three years now since a solid stormy pattern affected areas just east of the mountains. Our snow has mostly come in fairly localized banded events for a while now. It’s better than nothing for sure but doesn’t provide the widespread precip we really (and increasingly) need.

What do we need for a legitimately snowy pattern just east of the Rockies? Seriously. Trough in the West/negative PNA? Nope. The opposite? Nope. Not sure how it’s even realistically possible at this point when both sides of the coin seem to be yielding close to nada except for a few lucky spots.

To your credit, your (unpopular at the time) winter forecast appears likely to turn out much better than those of a lot of veteran east-based posters who called for well above average snowfall in the northeastern coastal big cities, when in fact they’ll probably finish well below normal. Meanwhile, interestingly (I think), northern New England has had a very snowy winter in places.

In fairness, at least in the somewhat higher western suburb where I reside near Denver, we’re probably only about 5” shy of average snowfall. It’s been an idiosyncratic winter so far in the Front Range. Much better a little higher up generally. Not sure how that compares to 76-77.

Okay then. The precip in the places that need it is great but this pattern could leave a fair amount of spots in the West that are abnormally dry or worse mostly dry, including the CO spots I mentioned (I think more posters in this thread are from there than any other single location so it is of particular interest). In fact, Denver (DIA anyway) is on the threshold of a nearly unprecedented snow drought . And I still don’t see what is really going to change with the arrival of the cavalry you claim to have predicted as it largely seems poised to be more of the same (e.g., the San Juans have already been doing well lately, and the generally dry Front Range may stay that way).

Snowiest month since 1969. Impressive.

??? I guess you’re talking about somewhere other than eastern CO and the CO Front Range. And eastern NM. And most of TX. That’s a terrible model run for all of those areas. The worst I’ve seen for the Front Range in a while actually. Sorry - don’t mean to be grumpy, but I cannot see what you’re talking about, given that the mountains have already generally been doing ok to well for a while now.

Are you thinking CO, including the Front Range, and NM have a decent shot at a stormy pattern from the ~second half of February through March?

That map is inaccurate for Colorado, and perhaps, therefore, a lot of other places too (I know CO best). The map incorrectly claims snowfall due west of Denver in the mountains has been below average but it actually has been above average.

Based on a handful of other forecasts and model runs, it seems that one can dare to be a bit more optimistic for above average precip in CO (especially the Front Range) than your map indicates.

January has been fairly good on the west side of town too — about 21” total here. Finally a not-bad snow month. Still don’t really understand what has been better for us in a large scale pattern sense. Some of it has been pure luck. This month “should” have been worse and December way better, I think, based on the broader pattern.

Received about 3.5” in western Lakewood. We have actually had a pretty decent snow month IMBY — about 16” with at least 1.5” water equivalent. Being at about 5900’ has helped us greatly with snowfall totals.

Left my house in western Lakewood near Green Mountain at about 3:00 for the mountains. There was about 5” of snow then. Surely there’s more now. Elevation made a huge difference for this system. The cutoff between meh and decent snow seemed to be about 5500’. Things seem to have turned out well above 6000’. My backyard = about 5900’. The snow depth was pretty impressive just a few hundred feet up the hill from me (at the highest point of the Green Mtn neighborhood). This was a lot like the April storms I’ve seen.

The 12z gfs looked ok and apparently the Euro looks decent as well. For now. This could easily change. But for now I think this is looking like a heavier snow event than 1-3”, though relatively warm temps paired with daytime snowfall may limit accumulation, especially below about 5500’.

There’s a *chance* of an ok snow event around Denver this Friday according to some models like the NAM. Probably won’t pan out for various reasons such as the likely lack of sustained moderate or better upslope (big surprise) but at least it’s something interesting to watch for a little while.

The ridiculously persistently positive PNA has surely been part of our problem in the CO Front Range lately. But why has it been so persistent? I ask in part to try to figure out what to root for in the coming months (like perhaps the erosion of the North Pacific warm blob?).

Things just have to change for the better eventually. I think. But, as previously discussed, and as illustrated recently by the NYE “event”, the lack of upslope here is so darn persistent.

Appear to have closer to 3” at about 5900’ in western Lakewood but, yeah, underwhelming for sure. Everywhere. Ugh. If I wanted to live in an arid climate, I would’ve settled elsewhere. The persistent dryness here is exasperating.

Part of the problem has been a persistent warm blob in the North Pacific south of Alaska that has been blamed for the so-called ridiculously resilient ridge in the West. We have had a positive PNA pattern for much of the past few years, which is generally bad for snow in the Front Range, as it tends to prevent storms from taking a track and traveling at a (slow) speed that is favorable for upslope snowfall. The La Niña last year and the year before that was not favorable for snow in the Front Range either because storms tended not to track far enough south to generate upslope snowfall. Raindance and other regular posters here can probably say much more about this than I am capable of saying about this sea surface temp topic. The Atlantic (and NAO) can affect our weather too, as can other Pacific-related factors like the MJO and EPO. I am NOT convinced that climate change neccesarily will be terrible for snowfall in Colorado (the mountain snowpack is a different story, in my view, and the outlook is bleaker for points further south and southwest of here too). I don’t mean to minimize the very serious impacts of climate change but its future effect on the Front Range precip and snowfall specifically is just not yet clear, as far as I understand it. I would not be surprised to see more drought and bigger storms at times (more extremes).

I am reluctant to blame climate change on the lack of big storms just yet. We have had some notably big storms since 2000, and a fair amount of above average snowfall seasons since then too though, as we all know, the past 2.5 years have been truly terrible. I think we can safely say that marginally cold storms are more likely to elicit rain than snow than they once were. That happened most recently in Denver in early November 2018 as I recall. What would’ve been about a 3-6” snowfall in temps a few degrees colder ended up being rain for almost all of the metro area. I suspect the horrific past few years have been largely attributable to sea surface temperature distributions that may or may not have much relationship with climate change. I am not a meteorologist but have followed weather and climate for years. I am cautiously optimistic that things will eventually turn around for the Front Range when it comes to snow, aside from those marginally cold storms that typically occur in the fall and spring. With that said, unless our winter precip goes up as the climate continues to warm (which some models have predicted), I do think our average annual snowfall will go down because of rain replacing what would’ve been snow. How the current Southwest mega-drought plays into all of this I don’t know but that may be another important factor to consider.

Disappointing for sure and, so, our remarkable lack of snow persists. We just can’t seem to catch a break.

Raindance - You seem to forecast and quasi-forecast a lot but don’t seem to hold yourself accountable very often. I don’t have a strong personal investment in your recent skirmishes here with northeasterners as I live in Colorado and don’t claim to have the expertise to make seasonal forecasts myself. Still, I’ve lurked in this forum and closely followed the weather long enough to say that you really ought to critique yourself if you insist on prognosticating. For starters, he’s your temp forecast from last winter vs actual temps.

Basically hasn’t snowed in Denver in a month. Our multi-year, now nearly unprecedented snow drought continues. Any reason for hope would be appreciated. I have tried but can’t find any straws to grasp until February at the earliest.