mob1

First confirmed tornado of the day

That cell near Sonora TX might have a TDS, it's a bit hard to tell but it also had a nice hook echo before ingesting some showers from the south. 

6.3" here, definitely a nice surprise. 

Ended with 5" on the nose, not bad at all. 

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Maps?

4 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

I wouldnt call the EURO 979 LP "weak" by any standards...

 

By the time in bombs out the best dynamics quickly collapse eastward. You want the storm to slow a little once it passes our latitude and maybe have a bit more of a northerly heading as the CCB matures. 

I guess beggars can't be choosers, but this is not ideal for optimal dynamics. 

Just now, Northof78 said:

This is becoming very close to nothing material north of 84, and if trend continues, surpression/lack of precip is biggest concern now for Metro. 

We're also losing dynamics with each successive run. A deamplified storm may be good for our location in terms of snow in general, but you're losing good rates and dynamic cooling in an already questionable airmass. You're essentially trading a formidable snowstorm for northern areas for a slop fest in our backyards. 

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Don’t fall for it man. 1-3” is what you should be expecting for city and coast 

I'd kill for that. Given the temperatures to start, dry midlevels at the storms closest approach (that aspect is always undermodeled)- then it'll take some time to moisten the columns again and by then the storm is moving east quickly and it'll be daytime anyways so it'll likely be white rain. 

If NYC records an inch, I'll consider it a win. 

Steady light snow now in SI, hope I can squeeze out an inch. 

Highest gust of the day just now at 47 mph. Let's see if I can crack 50. 

10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The first I've seen on the East side of the city. This would be where the surge would have occurred and appears to be significant standing water still.

 

 

 

Wow, that is some pretty impressive damage. Images coming out of rural areas aren't much better 

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Two cat 4 LFs back to back in same season… 

Otis might just be the worst of the EPAC due to location of landfall. Hopefully, it will weaken just before the eyewall comes ashore. Regardless, that's a bad spot for flooding and population, even if it does not hold Cat 4 through landfall. It's not moving all that fast.

Definitely, it's also moving a bit east of the forecast track (at least the early afternoon one) and should landfall fairly close to Acapulco. Even if it weakens as it comes ashore, the surge has already built up and the damage is done. 

A bit of a positive bust today for rain here. Most models had about half an inch through today, I'm at 1.22" with a sizeable band of moderate to heavy rain moving in. 

13 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Text book RI. Major devastating wind event for PV. The track just to the south should empty the whole bay. This was a good chase cane!

Looks like it's headed south of PV for now, and given its size they might be spared the worst if it doesn't take on a more notherly heading. 

Recon found peak surface winds of 108 knots, this should be a category 4 hurricane soon and still has some very warm waters to traverse. 

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I wonder what the 5 towns area looks like.  Holy crap. 

A friend of mine lives in Woodmere and says his entire neighborhood has 2-3 feet of standing water. 

JFK with a hair under 6 inches already (very likely over that by now). 

JFK-east will probably be the next big problem area. 

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

they updated it

You're looking at the wrong hour. Last hour was 1.02", the 1.96" was the hour before that. 

Some showers are developing near Tom's River and moving northward, we'll see what the next few hours bring as it stopped raining here completely. I think the bands going into Queens are Nassau will have to lighten up a bit as otherwise we'll be sucking subsidence for hours. 

Queens and Nassau should get absolutely pummeled over the next few hours. 

Central Park added 1.96" in the last hour. 

3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

did central park go over 10 inches for the month?

How much did they have before this event? By the end of this hour they should be at around 3 inches for the event. 

LGA added 1.4" in the last hour. 

2 minutes ago, steve392 said:

That's why im asking.  I keep hearing about tonight and into tomorrow yet radar looks like it would end by lunch time.

HRRR shows the lull quite well but has heavy rain redeveloping over the area this afternoon. Give the city a few more inches of rain. We'll see if it actually happens.