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Snowfreak09

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    2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

     

    3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

    He has an abrasive way of coming across but when this winter has he been wrong? If the confluence can’t press this south it will keep trending the wrong way. An energetic southern wave will pump the SE ridge and try to cut. The airmass out front is March-like. As usual there isn’t much/any help out west to force a better track. So we’re relying on confluence to pull a miracle. 

    abrasive is one way to put it lol.. but if folks want to have a pipe dream or not- let them have it...   here to learn yes.. but there is a way to do it...

    March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

    also: I hate the word "lull" they should just say nothing is happening for the next few hours, "lull" is like an excuse they give themselves....this is basically two different storms, the one tomorrow is the actual coastal.

     

    yes, i concur 100% 

    excellent point   

    • Weenie 1

    February 2023

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

    Might be easier to just compare it to 2017-18 since 1955-56 was used as an analog for that season.

     

     

    1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

    I've not heard of north based blocks unless that's just a conventional block.  We've known about east and west based blocks for a long time, south based blocks became a thing just a few years ago.  I suppose north based blocks must also exist, but maybe they are just the "normal" kind of block?

    We've had -PNA with +NAO so the cause and effect scenario must only work under particular circumstances.  Maybe there is something else that is the cause for both of them.

    Don's idea of marine heatwaves might be it!

     

     

    1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

    That would also explain the northward migrating SE Ridge and the most extreme heat going into New England and SE Canada during the summer too wouldn't it Don?

     

     

    1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

    This winter is literally a flat line ________________________

    Fill in the blank line lol ______________________

     

     

    1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

    That makes sense because north of the NAO block it's like a furnace lol.

    If you look at classic NAO blocks they screw northern new england and Maine is almost always blowtorching.  If that block moves south, guess what else moves south lol.....

    That Maine blowtorch becomes OUR blowtorch!

    Actually you want the arctic to be mild because that is north of the block and the cold air that is supposed to be up there comes down here instead.

     

    1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

    These will likely cycle back and forth but this marine heatwave issue may be the fly in the ointment in just how far north they can or will get when they do.  Heatwaves always end at some point, but note how oceans always respond much more slowly than the air does, so those marine heatwaves likely last much longer too.

     

     

    58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

    That was the first I heard the term "virga" being used.

    First bad bust I remember, next was the rainy bust of December 1989, then April 1997, then March 2001, then January 2008 and then February 2010 (first storm).  I don't know if that can actually be considered a bust, but it was super disappointing how close we were from 20 inch snowfall totals and ended up with an inch and a half lol.

    In a lot of ways the two big busts of 1989 will always be tops in my mind because I expected a snow day out of one and a weekend of sledding out of the other and got neither.

     

     

    54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

    You mean because of the SSW?

    I thought we already had the 1956 analog in 2018

    So are you basically saying with a deeper arctic cold pool we would have had a March more like 2018 also?

     

     

    53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

    Might be easier to just compare it to 2017-18 since 1955-56 was used as an analog for that season.

     

     

     

    libertybell- see what i just did there-  its called the multiquote function-- please use it.... lurker here, but its beyond obnoxious that 75 percent of the posts in these forums is you feeling the need to reply to every post like your Santa    esp in the mornings.. you wake up to read the forum  seeing a million posts and think wow, must have been good overnight runs... but... nope... just libertybell posting a million times!

    • Like 2
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    • Weenie 2
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