DomNH

Just snizzle here under the heavier echoes. DGZ is fried. 

3 minutes ago, 512high said:

Negative Dom, Exit 5 (our shop) 2.5"-2.75" @ 3:45am......

Guess my eyes are wrong! Either way about what I expected. 

Eyeballing about an inch or so. Guessing it either never really fully flipped or we couldn’t sustain good lift. Drizzle now. 

3:30 am get up to get a glass of water ob: SN maybe 1/2’’ to 1’’. Meh 

Still RAPL last ob before bed. Maybe wake up to a surprise but 2-4 crusty inches still seems about right. Maybe some mangled flakes in there too. 

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You forgot it's 2 plus inches of qpf

We’ve already wasted 0.6’’…it’s going to really have to bang from midnight to 6 am. 

-RA here in these lulls. No snow yet. 

Man the radar really does look like garbage. New HRRR develops a heavy band near the border later on for a few hours then dries right back out again.

Scalped. Road is slick. 

Meanwhile the NAM won't budge on all sleet then follows the HRRR in drying things out aloft by daybreak. 

Hearing the first of many pings.

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Just told my neighborhood chat this too. 0-16”

My gut still says crud but there's definitely an avenue to warning snow if everything breaks right and it pounds 1-2'' an hour from midnight to 6 am. Hate the H7 low in NY State though - to me that screams showery banded radar and that ain't going to cut it.

Really have no idea if I'll wake up to 6-7'' of pure concrete and no power tomorrow or 3'' of crud. At least it looks like things improve pretty quickly in the morning. Cautiously optimistic my 3 pm out of MHT will survive. 

HRRR is also the quickest to fizzle things out tomorrow morning in SNE. Really pounds for a few hours though north of Route 2. 

17z HRRR might be the coldest run yet. 

NAM is straight sleet south of MHT.

1 minute ago, Weathernoob335 said:

Despite this it still looks like a decent amount of snow on kuchera, but is that even reliable in these marginal storms? The last storm we got says not even close, hrrr was also bullish and way off last storm for me

Kuchera isn’t reliable on the best of days. 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, well there is a reason we are only getting like 2".

Yep. Doesn't look like the miracle is going to happen. 

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2am....eh.

Looking at the soundings it's either mostly sleet or shitty rimed flakes at best. H7 remains right about at 0c throughout the overnight and then the DGZ dries out once it tries to flip.

Looks like shit with the precip shield too. 

HRRR is really ugly with the dryslot after about 10z. Continuing the trend from 18z there. 

Just now, Weathernoob335 said:

Explains how some areas snow totals went down some but down almost everywhere, not just the southern areas

 

Excuse me I'm still learning that there's more to winter forecasting than just clown maps, seriously though this stuffs complex 

Yeah the 18z Euro sucked in the marginal areas. Midlevel warmth didn't budge and precip rates during the important 06z - 12z timeframe were not impressive. 

19 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Warnings for sleet & slush? If it doesn’t pound from midnight to 6am. We busted. 

Yeah seemed a little aggressive but what do I know. It's such a fragile setup at a time of year where fragile is tough. GFS is a good example of how it could happen but everything is going to have to break just right. 18z HRRR is a good example of the opposite. ML warmth + inconsistent rates + April solar insolation = 1-2'' of meh. Going to need to absolutely fooking pound consistently overnight to achieve warning snows. 

Truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Gun to weenie I'd go 2-4'' here.

NAM like the Euro is a scalping here til 06z then a crusty inch or two before it dries out quickly and slots after 12z. Fugly

Surprised GYX went straight to warnings here.