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Syrmax

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Everything posted by Syrmax

  1. 12Z GFS pretty much holds serve with NAM...snow clown thru 18z friday. The Cuse is looking more solid for a long duration event.
  2. 12Z NAM dryslots the bejesus out of SNE and rotates precip back over CNY to as far west as ROC and BUF with what appears to be lake enhancement as system stalls and then fills invof Montreal... 3km NAM has 8" for KSYR thru end if it's run at 60 hrs. 32km NAM continues with wraparound thru HR 84. Not horrible for us.
  3. Yeah there will be. Really interested to see if 12z runs remain bullish for CNY. Weeniecide hotlines will be busy along the coast if that happens (i think i95 NJ-PVD- BOS slots and/or rains regardless). I don't put a whole lot of faith in the off hour runs but they can sometimes be useful from a trending standpoint. Regardless, KALB appears to be the best positioned synoptically no matter what evolves.
  4. Too bad this is 06Z but still interesting. 06Z Clown thru 120h:
  5. 06Z NAM and GFS pushing snow all the back into CNY. GFS particularly bullish over next 3-4 days. This continues to evolve on models. Hard to believe a tucked in sub 990 mb slp near NYC doesn't throw back at least advisory snows here. The interaction with the primary is going to be interesting to watch. Then there's extended wraparound into Thurs/Fri. I think KSYR can see 6-9" out of this, net.
  6. Talk about some blue bomb action, look st this panel over S.C. Canada!
  7. Ripped from Powderfreak (thanks) over on the NE forum. EPS shows the potential. Ways to go though. Again, a few moving pieces, esp the northern stream. I saw that GFS spaghetti last night, 00Z, and it was quite interesting in offering support of another quasi capture scenario. There's a lot of model support for this one right now. Even the NAVGEM has something in pretty tight and it's usually pushing systems out to Bermuda.
  8. Not gonna get too concerned about qpf panels 4 days out but if that stays tucked in ala GFS and GEM...its pretty much game on for at least ROC/SYR and on east to ALB. GEM with a 987mb slp over Montauk at 120 hrs looks pretty effing enticing. Euro doesn't look bad either, perhaps a bit further east.
  9. I just posted that in NE as an update...forgot about ROC! No Blizzard headline was issued though I believe...
  10. I posted this in the NE forum also, someone was wondering if any station verified Blizzard conditions. Im always curious about that also. KMSV, Monticello (snippet below) looks like they probably did using the squishy "frequent" gusts over 35 mph criteria. They met the viz and duration marks for sure. Oneonta was a touch lower on winds so probably not there.
  11. 24" is all in Elmira? Just brutal. At least Ithaca is an interesting college town. Elmira...not so much.
  12. This really illustrates typical snowfall distribution for upstate NY...enhanced by the elevation, energy xfer, and marginal thermal profile aspects of this storm. Look at that snow hole in the southern tier west of BGM towards Ithaca. Snow nuts go crazy there. Blech!
  13. Another AFD snippet from our latest AbFab Morch Storm. Look at these numbers from the I-88 corridor SW of ALB...o:O ...Schoharie County... Cobleskill 39.3 953 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter Richmondville 37.5 402 PM 3/02 WeatherNet6 Jefferson 34.5 402 PM 3/02 WeatherNet6 Gilboa 30.0 418 PM 3/02 WeatherNet6 Schoharie 30.0 345 PM 3/02 WeatherNet6 Charlotteville 28.0 526 PM 3/02 WeatherNet6 Middleburgh 24.7 404 PM 3/02 WeatherNet6 North Blenheim 24.0 347 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
  14. KBGM updated AFD snippet...some very solid #s ...Oneida County... New Hartford 22.0 648 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter 1 S Point Rock 19.0 515 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter 3 N Utica 17.5 700 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter ...Onondaga County... Jamesville 21.1 600 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter Onondaga 17.0 725 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter East Syracuse 15.2 413 PM 3/02 Tribal Official North Syracuse 14.5 500 PM 3/02 Official NWS Obs Marcellus 12.0 545 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter ...Otsego County... Oneonta 20.0 907 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter Cherry Valley 19.0 856 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter Schenevus 19.0 904 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter Milford 13.0 902 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter Unadilla 13.0 906 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter Edmeston 12.5 857 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
  15. This outperformed my expectations for sure. I thought we would suffer what New England has, with lousy lower and mid levels but that didn’t happen at all. And the center xfer didn’t leave us gapped either. I figured one of those two issues would screw us. The warm preceding ground temps and air temps in U20s also kept road conditions from getting out of hand so not as bad an impact as a typical 16” winter event around here.
  16. So do we have a model winner in this one? I’m excluding the short range ones. I don’t know if NAM wins just because of how atrocious it performed in New England regarding snowfall. I think further west, this forum, it did well. GFS? Meh. Euro...dishonored itself mostly, in aggregate. GEM/RGEM? Still snowing BTW, SN-...16” here total. Looks like one last batch rotating in now.
  17. Yeah we have hung on all day. I thought it was going to wind down this morning but no! This incoming batch rotating in looks closer to 3/4-1”/hr than the 1/2”/hr we’ve had all day
  18. Yeah, I grouse a lot about it as I spent mid 80s to 2000 in SE CT and b4 that the 60s/70s in NNJ and SEVA (where expectations are zero). Other than 1995/96, it was like pulling teeth to get a decent snowstorm in SECT where we didn't mix, dryslot, or flat out rain. It scarred me for life.
  19. Yes you are right! Would like to see winter wx patterns revert back to the 1960s-1990s where BGM to ALB and up into the deep interior of CNE and NNE were usually where to be for big snowstorms. Not the insanity of the past decade’s coastal “blizzards.”
  20. That area in the triangle between SYR-ALB-BGM is often a sweet spot for mesoscale banding during strong coastals. Seen it many times, including the back-to-back blockbusters back in Xmas 2001 and a week later where we had 20-24” around ALB for each storm while in that region west of Albany 30+ jackpots occurred. Also in some other large synoptic events since. We usually end up just being teased by these just to the east of us.
  21. We are managing to hang onto the NW edge of the decent snow rate here in NW Onondaga County. Like 20 - 30 miles west of here ihas probably been just out of the game. Would be nice to see this slp rotate NW just a bit and throw some heavier returns back west a bit longer.
  22. Blizzard Warning up for counties east of BGM...Oneonta to Monticello and extreme NEPA. Solid! NWS radar websites appear to be back.
  23. NWS radar feeds or websites are all down. Anyone else seeing this? Russians again?
  24. Still light to moderate snow here, Just measured again, another 2-1/4” since 8 a.m....so that’s ballpark 1/2”/hr snow rate...not crippling by any means and roads are fine...but a lot of power problems since what fell earlier was New England boilerplate wet. Total of 10.5” so far.
  25. I was in Albany yesterday, balmy 50 degrees...KALB was forecasting a highly uncertain 2-4”...look at you now! No win situation forecasting for Capital district on this one. On a side note, I’m rooting for a tsunami to sweep into Montauk NY and carry this weather channel reporter out to sea. Insufferably stupid.
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