Roger Smith
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Posts posted by Roger Smith
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At the halfway point ... anomalies and projections ...
___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA
______ (15d anom) ________+2.9 _ +3.3 _ +1.6 ___ +3.9 _ +1.9 _ +3.7 ___ +4.8 _ -2.7 _ -0.6
______(p30d anom) _______+1.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.5 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _ +3.5 ___ +4.0 __ 0.0 _ -1.0
(Apr 16) _ Projections are based on a rather cool second half pattern in east and PAC NW, very warm southwest US to Texas, continued warm DEN)
Updates to snowfall contest will appear later (noted in last table posted in last month's contest thread).
(a few increases since 1st Apr for 9.8 BOS 22.2 ORD 23.5 DTW 71.3 BUF 38.3 DEN 60.8 BTV)
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The Aug 22, 2044 (Aug 23 in UT) eclipse would be visible from Alberta and parts of BC, Yukon and Alaska towards sunset, and only lasts a minute or two. Evening cloud cover in late August is quite a high probability in the Rockies and I would think best chances could be further northwest (or near Lethbridge AB).
The Aug 12, 2045 eclipse crosses the US in a path similar to the 2017 event, a bit further south, northern Utah to south FL are in the path and it lasts a full six minutes. Skies are often clear in Utah in August especially in range of 0930-1130h local when this eclipse will happen there.
From a distance, I would take my chances on the 2045 event although the 2044 event is very close to my location anyway. We will probably have teleportation by then anyway, right?
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While not able to break NYC daily rainfall record on April 3 (1.90" 1983), the 48h total of 2.42" (0.87"+1.55") does set a new high for April 2-3, previously it was 2.01" in 1917.
Today, both records are 1987 (1.99" one day, and 2.48" 2d for April 3-4).
I posted all such records on page 13 of this thread (and I edited in 2024).
Current pattern cannot be a lot different fro 1915 with its record 10.0" snowfall (on April 3), and worth noting that April 25 and 27 of 1915 both set records in the low 90s. The only other part of 1915 that was particularly warm was mid-September.
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Table of forecasts for April 2024
FORECASTER _________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA
rainsucks ______________________________+3.5 _ +3.7 _ +3.5 ___ +3.5 _ +2.5 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+1.0 _+1.5
hudsonvalley21 ________________________+3.1 _ +4.2 _ +4.1 ___ +3.2 _ +2.1 _ +2.6 ___ +2.7 _+2.3 _+2.9
wxallannj ______________________________+2.2 _ +2.4 _ +2.6 ___ +2.8 _ +2.5 _ +1.2 ___ +2.4 _+0.5 _-0.5
Roger Smith ___________________________+2.0 _ +2.2 _ +2.5 ___ +2.3 _ +2.1 _ +2.8 ___ +2.8 _+1.0 _+0.2
RJay ___________________________________+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0
Tom ____________________________________+1.6 _ +1.8 _ +1.8 ___ +2.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.5 ___ +0.9 _ +0.6 _ +0.2
___ Consensus _________________________+1.6 _ +1.7 _ +1.9 ___ +2.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +0.4 _ +0.6
BKViking _______________________________+1.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.5 ___ +1.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.9
DonSutherland1 _______________________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___ +1.7 _ +0.3 __ 0.0 ___ +0.5 _ -0.8 _ +0.8
Scotty Lightning _______________________+1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5
so_whats_happening ___________________+1.3 _ +1.6 _ +2.0 ___+2.6 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 ___ +0.8 __ 0.0 _+0.4
wxdude64 ______________________________+1.1 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +0.1 _ +0.1 ____ +0.6 _+0.2 _+0.9
___ Normal _______________________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0
RodneyS ________________________________-0.3 _ +1.1 _ +0.9 ___ -0.1 _ -0.2 _ +1.1 ____ +0.6 __-1.9 __-0.2
Persistence ____________________________ +4.3 _ +5.3 _ +3.7 ___+5.0 _+3.2 _+2.8 ___ -0.2 _ -1.2 _ +0.1
==================
Color codes for warmest and coldest forecasts, Normal coldest for NYC, BOS, IAH, DEN.
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__ <<<< APRIL DAILY RECORDS for NYC >>>> __
notes: 2d precip records, almost all rain, are listed for days on which they conclude. An asterisk (as for Apr 8, 1940) indicates that the 2d record is only one precip event on that date. A double asterisk ** (e.g. Apr 11, 1983) indicates the record amount all fell on the previous day and no additional rain or snow fell on that day. The basic point of including 2d records is that it tends to identify all discrete rainfall events including those occurring overnight.
Also, numbers in brackets after record low minima are that day's maximum, if close to a record low max, but not actually a low max, which would be listed in the adjacent column. As with second such notation (36 max for record low 22F Apr 2, 1919) these near-record values are sometimes on a previous day (in this case April 1, 1919).
Extreme values for April are in bold type. (e.g. 12F on April 1, 1923 is lowest for any date in April).
DATE ____ High max___ High min _____ Low max ___ Low min ________ Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ Max snow
Apr 01 ___ 83 1917 ___ 61 2016 _______ 34 1874 ____12 1923 (36) _____1.89 1993 ___ 2.32 1997 ___ 8.5 1924
Apr 02 ___ 81 1967 ___ 61 1967 _______ 35 1911 ____22 1919 (36 1st) __1.93 1970 ___1.96 1970 ____ 5.5 2018
Apr 03 ___ 81 1981 ___ 59 1892, 2015 __34 1896 ____24 1954 (43) ____1.90 1983___2.42 2024^____10.0 1915 (10.2 3rd-4th)
Apr 04 ___ 80 1892 ___ 62 1892 ______ 32 1879 _____20 1874 ________ 1.99 1987 ___2.48 1987 ____ 2.5 1957 _ also 2.37"2d 1876
Apr 05 ___ 80 1928 ___ 60 1892 ______ 30 1881 _____20 1874 (38) ___ 2.76 1984 ___4.37 1984 ____ 6.5 1944
Apr 06 ___ 80 2023^___58 2010 ______ 31 1881 _____21 1982 (41) ____ 2.52 1886 ___2.81 1886 ____ 9.6 1982 _ non-rec 3.3",3.1" S 1938 6-7.
Apr 07 ___ 92 2010 ___ 63 1991 ______ 30 1982 _____21 1982 ________ 1.35 1899 ___2.58 1886 ____ 4.0 2003 _ also 2.50"2d 1958
Apr 08 ___ 90 1991 ___ 66 1991 _______37 1917,56,2003_25 1982________1.93 1940 ___1.93 1940*___ 4.2 1956 (1.8" S 1916, 3.3" 8th-9th)
Apr 09 ___ 86 1991 ___ 68 1991 _______39 1885,1982,2003 _25 1977 (44) __ 3.42 1980 ___3.42 1980*___ 6.4 1917 (6.5S 8th-9th) _2.1"S 1942
Apr 10 ___ 86 1922 ___ 55 1871, 2013 _ 37 1942 _____28 1974,85,97 _____ 4.31 1983 ___4.32 1983 ____ 0.5 1882 _ also 2.72" 2d r 1906
Apr 11 ___ 84 1955 ___ 61 2017 ______ 38 1882,1918 _24 1909 (39 10th)__1.10 1913 ___4.31 1983**___ 0.4 1918
Apr 12 ___ 90 1977 ___ 64 2023^______ 35 1874, 1918 _22 1874 ________ 2.12 1933 ___2.13 1933 ____ 2.0 1918 (2.4S 2d) 1.3"S 1940
Apr 13 ___ 90 2023^___ 67 2023^______ 35 1875, 1940 _22 1874 _______ 1.92 2020 ___2.12 1933**___ 8.7 1875
Apr 14 ___ 91 2023^___ 70 2023^______ 41 1940, 48 __26 1950 (44 13th) _2.72 1909 ___2.76 1909 ___ 1.9 1950, 1.3 1875 (10.0 2d)
Apr 15 ___ 87 1941 ___ 67 1941 _______ 41 1885, 1943 _28 1943 _______ 7.57 2007 ___7.57 2007 ____ 0.5 1892 (1.0 2d S)
Apr 16 ___ 92 2002 ___ 69 2002 ______39 1872 _____29 1928 ________3.29 1983 ___8.47 2007 ____ Trace 2014^_ also 2.82"R 2018
Apr 17 ___ 96 2002 ___ 74 2002 ______33 1875 _____27 1875 ________1.59 1873 ___3.29 1983**___ Trace 1935^
Apr 18 ___ 96 1976 ___ 76 2002 ______32 1875 _____25 1875 ________2.19 1924 ___2.19 1924*____ 3.0 1887
Apr 19 ___ 92 1976 ___ 68 1976 _______40 1875 _____22 1875 ________ 1.96 1978 ___2.23 1924 ____ 0.8 1983
Apr 20 ___ 90 1927 ___ 67 1976 ______ 37 1904 _____24 1897 ________ 1.96 1893 ___1.99 1978____Trace 1925,53 _ also 1.96" 2dR 1874
Apr 21 ___ 87 1923 ___ 60 1923 ______ 40 1940 _____26 1875 ________ 2.28 1991 ___2.78 1901 ___Trace 1928,47
Apr 22 ___86 1962,73,2001_62 2016 ____40 1873 _____28 1875 ________ 2.45 2012 ___2.67 2012 ___Trace 1929,72
Apr 23 ___ 86 2007 ___ 60 1926 ______40 1883 _____29 1872 ________ 2.34 2006 ___3.57 2006 ___Trace 1906,30,63,86
Apr 24 ___ 87 2001 ___ 63 2008 ______44 1883, 1930 _31 1930 ________ 2.17 1968 ___2.57 2006 ___ 0.5 1883
Apr 25 ___ 91 1915 ___ 58 1979, 82____43 1919 _____29 1919 _________ 1.68 1945 ___2.20 1968 ___ 3.0 1875
Apr 26 ___ 92 2009 ___ 67 2009 _____ 42 1874 _____31 1919 __________ 1.88 1889 ___2.58 1889 ___Trace 1919_ also 2.54" 2dR 1910
Apr 27 ___ 92 1915 ___ 61 1949, 2011__ 45 1946 ____36 1932 (48) ____ 2.04 2007 ___3.42 1889 ___Trace 1932,67
Apr 28 ___ 90 1990,2009_ 69 1990, 2009__41 1898 _____31 1874 (44) ____ 2.74 1980 ___3.07 1980 ___Trace 1874,1931
Apr 29 ___ 89 1974 ___ 64 2017 _______ 38 1874 _____32 1874 _________ 2.46 2023^___2.85 1980 __ 0.5 1874 _ also 2.54" 2dR 1958
Apr 30 ___ 91 1942 ____ 63 1903 _______45 1925 _____32 1874 _________ 4.97 2014 ___5.00 2014^ __ 0.0 (no traces)
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^ notes above
3rd _ Record 2d rain 2.42" 2024 broke record of 2.01" 1917. (April 2-3).
6th _ Record high max 2023 (80F) replaces 79F from 1912, 1917 and 1947
12th _ Record high min 2023 (64F) replaces 58F (1947, 2017)
13th _ Record high max 2023 (90F) replaces 88F (1977) and min (67F) replaces 61F (1945)
14th _ Record high max 2023 (91F) replaces 85F (1941) and min (70F) replaces 60F (2019)
16th _ Trace snowfalls in 1875, 1905, 1935, 1939, 1943, and 2014
17th _ Trace snowfalls in 1875, 1905, 1928 and 1935.
29th _ Previous record 0.91" (1909)
28th-29th _ 2.79" total rain 2023 just below 1980 maximum amount of 2.85"
29th-30th _ 4.78" two-day rainfall in 2023 after 2.32" fell on 30th (2014 retains both records for 30th).
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+2.0 _ +2.2 _ +2.5 _ +2.3 _ +2.1 _ +2.8 __ +2.8 _ +1.0 _ +0.2
In case you didn't look at opening post, deadline is one day later ... you can edit already posted forecasts to 06z 2nd, and enter (no penalty) up to later deadline.
Will send a note to anyone not in by 06z.
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Just a reminder to forecast contest folks, today would normally be deadline at 06z later, but I extended it 24 hours because of the timing of Easter, so pop in on monday and submit a forecast.
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<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Mar 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>>
wxallannj _______________ 196 _184 _242 __ 622 __150 _222 _150 __ 522 _1144 __200 _274 _254 __728_____1872
rainsucks _______________276 _294 _242 __812__ 153 _180 _148 __ 481 _1293 __ 80 _206 _236 __ 522 _____1815
DonSutherland1 ________200 _200 _214 __ 614 __ 210 _206 _136 __ 552 _1166 __192 _242 _200 __634 _____1800
___ Consensus _________ 182 _154_210 __546 __184_208 _144 __536 _1082 __142 _252 _258 __ 652_____1734
RJay ____________________197 _200 _185 __ 582 __177 _206 _ 110 __ 493 _1075 __ 172 _225 _217 __ 614 _____1689 (1736)*
so_whats_happening ___ 178 _162 _224 __ 564 __187 _180 _106 __ 473 _1037 __ 182 _ 206 _248 __636 _____1673
hudsonvalley21 _________194 _150 _200 __ 544 __158 _188 _154 __ 500 _1044 __ 116 _206 _278 __ 600 _____1644
RodneyS ________________114 _152 _196 __ 462 __ 155 _164 _164 __ 483 _ 945 __204 _238 _234 __676 _____ 1621
BKViking ________________188 _156 _210 __ 554 __126 _184 _120 __ 430 _ 984 __ 144 _ 232 _234__ 610 _____1594
Tom _____________________132 _100 _158 __ 390 __116 _176 _132 __ 424 _ 814 __ 106 _ 218 _ 238 __ 562 _____1376
Scotty Lightning ________130 _ 74 _104 __ 308 __ 78 _ 196 _152 __ 426 _ 734 ___128 _216 _282 __ 626 _____1360
wxdude64 _______________84 _ 88 _152 __ 324 __130 _ 150 _108 __ 388 _ 712 __ 168 _222 _242 __ 632 _____1344
Roger Smith _____________130 _108 _ 82 __ 320 __158 _169 _118 __ 445 _ 765 ___ 86 _ 194 _156 __ 436 _____ 1201
Normal __________________ 80 _ 50 _ 94 __ 224 __ 78 _ 170 _102 __ 350 _ 574 ___ 128 _226 _272 __ 626 _____1200
Stormchaser Chuck (2/3)_68 _98 _128 __ 294 __ 110 _ 00 _ 00 __ 110 __ 404 __ 62 _ 190 _ 136 __ 388 _____ 792
Rhino16 (2/3) ____________ 50 _ 22 _ 36 __ 108 __ 103 _118 _ 56 __ 277 __ 385 __ 48 _ 158 _ 156 __ 362 _____ 747
* (note: tracking RJay raw score before Feb late penalty of 47 pts ... at current scoring, would not affect ranks)
Persistence _____________222 _212 _252 __ 686 __ 10 _144 _ 74 __ 228 _ 914 ___ 00 _ 096 _ 180 __ 276 ____ 1190
-----------------------------------
Best forecasts
* tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- SEA for 2024-03)
FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL
wxallannj ________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*___0 ____ 1 ______ 0
rainsucks ________________2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 1 _ Feb
DonSutherland1 _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0
___ Consensus _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 _____ 0
RJay _____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ____1 ______ 1 _ Mar
so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0
hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0
RodneyS ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan
BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______0
wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0
Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0
Scotty Lightning _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0
Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0
Normal __________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0
Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 ______ 0
Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ______ 0
EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT
so far, a total of 16 qualified (14 for warmest, 2 for coldest) ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0.
* tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col.
FORECASTER _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar __ TOTAL __ adj for ties
rainsucks ____________________ 2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 ___ 8-0
wxdude64 ___________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0
DonSutherland1 ______________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0
Scotty Lightning _____________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 ___ 2-0 ___ 1.5 - 0
RodneyS _____________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0
hudsonvalley21 ______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0
wxallannj _____________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ___ 0.5 - 0
___ Consensus _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0
Roger Smith __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 ___ 1-1
RJay _________________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 ___ 1-2
BKViking _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 ___ 0-1
Stormchaser Chuck __________ 0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-2
Tom, Rhino16, swh ______________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-0
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On 03-29-1945 it was also 86F at BOS, 87F at PhL, and 90F at BWI (or nearby as it's their official record). DCA was 92F in 1907 but it could have been 90-91 there in 1945 also (IAD record is 1998 so probably period doesn't extend back to 1945 there). Albany's record was 85F in 1946 which was just about as hot late in month. It must have generated a lot of talk back then when two consecutive years had notably warm months (march).
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I would guess probably about 80-82 at location of JFK, if they could have taken the reading, it looks like a WSW flow which probably explains PVD getting to 90F. It had been very mild for weeks all over the country (and in southern Ontario) so there was probably no snow south of Lake Superior since early in the month.
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Well it was 86 NYC for a monthly record on same day (1945, tied in 1998 on 31st).
Believe it or not, average daily high for March 16 to April 15 of 1945 (31 days) was 68.8, a degree warmer than May and actually warmer than any 31-day interval until May 10 to June 10 of same year. The interval June 1 to 6 was particularly cold setting a lot of low temperature records.
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As of 4:30 climate report, 0.65" (incl .06" yesterday) at NYC takes 2024 past 4 and 5 (1876, 1953) into fourth place at 8.89" with some more to come? But 1-3 are probably safe now (all above 10").
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Final Scoring for March 2024
Forecaster _______________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA_west___ TOTAL
Anomalies (est) __________________+4.3_+5.3_+3.7 ____+5.0_+3.2_+2.8 ___ ___ ____-0.2 _-1.2 _+0.1
RJay ______________________________ 66 _ 86 _ 54 _ 206 _ 80 _ 96 _ 94 _ 270 _476 _ 96 _ 92 _ 98_ 286 ___ 762
DonSutherland1 ___________________84 _ 90 _ 84 _ 258 _ 90 _ 72 _ 62 _ 224 _ 482 _ 94 _ 84 _ 98 _ 276 ___ 758
wxallannj __________________________76 _ 66 _ 96 _ 238 __ 56 _ 80 _ 84 _ 220 _ 458 _ 88 _ 98 _ 68 _ 254 ___ 712
___ Consensus _____________________70 _ 54 _ 88 _ 212 _ 64 _ 70 _ 80 _ 214 _ 426 _ 86 _ 94 _100 _ 280___ 706
rainsucks __________________________92 _100 _64 _ 256 _ 50 _ 76 _ 92 _ 218 _ 474 _ 46 _ 96 _ 88 _ 230 ___ 704
Roger Smith _______________________86 _ 84 _ 50 _ 220 _ 60 _ 74 _ 96 _ 230 _ 450 __66 _ 96 _ 90 _ 252 ___ 702
Tom _______________________________ 70 _ 56 _ 90 _ 216 __ 70 _ 72 _ 82 _ 224 _ 440 _ 64 _ 58 _ 86 _ 208 ___648
hudsonvalley21 ____________________ 68 _ 52 _ 76 _ 196 _ 54 _ 62 _ 76 _ 192 _ 388 _ 78 _ 74 _ 96 _ 248 ___ 636
so_whats_happening _______________56 _ 50 _ 86 _ 192 _ 88 _ 52 _ 46 _ 186 _ 378 _ 88 _ 78 _ 86 _ 252 ___ 630
BKViking ___________________________ 58 _ 40 _ 74 _ 172 _ 40 _ 58 _ 68 _ 166 _ 338 _ 86 _ 74 _ 96 _ 256 ___ 594
RodneyS ___________________________ 46 _ 44 _ 76 _ 166 _ 26 _ 44 _ 70 _ 140 _ 306 __94 _ 94 _ 56 _ 244 ___550
Scotty Lightning ____________________34 _ 14 _ 46 _ 094 _ 20 _ 66 _ 84 _ 170 _ 264 _ 86 _56 _ 98_ 240 ___ 504
wxdude64 __________________________30 _ 22 _ 60 _ 112 __ 18 _ 28 _ 34 __080 _ 192 __98 _ 92 _70 _260 ___ 452
Normal ______________________________14 _ 00 _ 26 _ 040 _ 00 _ 36 _ 44 _ 080 _ 120 __ 96 _76 _ 98 _ 270 ___ 390
Persistence (Feb 2024) _____________98 _ 78 _ 94 _ 270 _ 00 _ 72 _ 72 _ 144 __ 414 _ 00 _ 46 _ 96 _ 142 ___ 556
==================================
Extreme forecast report
DCA, NYC _ wins for rainsucks and losses for RJay
BOS, ORD, DEN, PHX, SEA _ do not qualify
ATL _ A win for RJay and a loss for Roger Smith
IAH _ A win for Roger Smith
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On 3/19/2024 at 2:18 AM, so_whats_happening said:
well then that is one pitiful snow season. Had a feeling it would be bad but not this bad.
I updated snowfall totals today, BTV saw a bit of a jump but in any case, an update to contest standings follows:
*** __ 2023-2024 Winter Snowfall Contest __ ***
Forecaster ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV
wxdude64 ____________________________22.9 _ 30.2 _ 44.6 __ 22.2 _ 31.5 _ 88.3 ___ 54.3 __ 7.8 __ 71.4
RJay _________________________________ 22.0 _ 30.0 _ 44.0 __ 20.0 _ 25.0 _ 99.0 ___ 61.0 __ 4.0 __ 80.0
BKViking _____________________________ 19.0 _ 28.0 _ 37.0 __ 20.0 _ 17.0 __ 95.0 ___ 59.0 __ 4.1 __ 86.0
wxallannj _____________________________ 19.0 _ 27.0 _ 30.0 __ 38.0 _ 35.0 _ 97.0 ___ 41.0 __ 9.0 __ 75.0
Tom ___________________________________18.7 _ 32.6 _ 44.7 __ 37.2 _ 34.6 _ 97.8 ___ 51.6 __ 4.1 __ 73.2
Roger Smith __________________________ 18.5 _ 33.8 _ 54.1 __ 40.3 _ 48.4 _ 89.2 ___ 45.0 __ 3.0 __79.3
___ Consensus ____ (median) __________18.5 _ 27.0 _ 37.0 __ 30.0 _ 34.5 _ 89.2 ___ 54.3 __ 4.1 __ 77.0
so_whats_happening __________________18.0 _ 26.0 _ 41.0 __ 28.0 _ 35.0 _ 78.0 ___ 40.0 __ 7.0 __ 87.0
Scotty Lightning ______________________ 16.0 _ 21.0 _ 33.0 __ 43.0 _ 31.0 _103.0 ___ 41.0 __ 5.0 __ 86.0
hudsonvalley21 _______________________ 12.0 _ 31.0 _ 30.5 __ 33.5 _ 32.5 _ 68.5 ___ 59.5 __ 5.5 __ 77.0
DonSutherland1 _______________________ 11.5 _ 15.0 _ 27.5 ___27.0 _ 38.5 _ 85.0 ___ 56.5 __ 1.2 ___70.0
RodneyS _______________________________ 6.7 _ 12.9 _ 24.3 __ 30.0 _ 34.5 _ 79.9 ___ 65.4 __ 3.9 __ 64.3
Snowfall to date _ (03-26) ____________ 8.0 __ 7.5 ___ 9.8 ___ 22.2 _ 23.5 _ 71.3 ___ 38.3 ___0.3 __ 60.8
-------------------------------------
Snowfall errors to date
(in most cases, error is an overprediction and can be reduced by future snowfall, exceptions are underlined and these errors can increase) ...
Forecaster ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total (rank)
wxdude64 ____________________________14.9 _ 22.7 _ 34.8 ___ 0.0 __ 8.0 _ 17.0 ___ 16.0 __ 7.5 __ 10.6 ___ 131.5 (6)
RJay _________________________________ 14.0 _ 22.5 _ 34.2 ___ 2.2 __ 1.5 _ 27.7 ___ 22.7 __ 3.7 __ 19.2 ___ 147.7 (9)
BKViking _____________________________ 11.0 _ 20.5 _ 27.2 ___ 2.2 __ 6.5 __ 23.7 __ 20.7 __ 3.8 __25.2 ___ 140.8 (8)
wxallannj _____________________________ 11.0 _ 19.5 _ 20.2 __ 15.8 _ 11.5 __ 25.7 ____2.7 __ 8.7 __ 14.2 ___ 129.3 (5)
Tom ___________________________________10.7 _ 25.1 _ 34.9 __ 15.0 _ 11.1 __ 26.5 ___13.3 __ 3.8 __ 12.4 ___ 152.8 (10)
Roger Smith __________________________ 10.5 _ 26.3 _ 44.3 __ 18.1 _24.9 _ 17.9 ____ 6.7 __ 2.7 __ 18.5 ___ 169.9 (11)
___ Consensus ____ (median) __________10.5 _ 19.5 _ 27.2 ___ 7.8 _ 11.0 __ 17.9 ___ 16.0 __ 3.8 __ 16.2 ___ 129.9 (5.3)
so_whats_happening __________________10.0 _ 18.5 _ 31.2 ___ 5.8 _ 11.5 ___ 6.7 ____ 1.7 __ 6.7 __ 26.2 ___ 118.3 (4)
Scotty Lightning _______________________ 8.0 _ 13.5 _ 23.2 __ 20.8 __7.5 __31.7 ____2.7 __ 4.7 __ 25.2 ___ 137.3 (7)
hudsonvalley21 ________________________ 4.0 _ 23.5 _ 20.7 __ 11.3 __ 9.0 _ 2.8 ____ 21.2 __5.2 __ 16.2 ___ 113.9 (3)
DonSutherland1 ________________________3.5 __ 7.5 __ 17.7 ___ 4.8 _ 15.0 _ 13.7 ___ 18.2 __ 0.9 ___9.2 ____ 90.5 (2)
RodneyS _______________________________ 1.3 __ 5.4 _ 14.5 ___ 7.8 __ 11.0 __ 8.6 ____27.1 __ 3.6 __ 3.5____ 82.8 (1)
======================================
At this stage, further snow is only likely in DEN and BTV but could occur at other locations.
(edit Apr 16)
Rodney's lead is not threatened by any outcomes for DEN as he actually has largest error there now, so can never increase error differential against any other forecaster. It's the other way around for BTV but RodneyS is not in danger of transferring error differentials until at least 3.5" further snow there, but if that happened, each further inch represents a 2" transfer to DonS until potentially 5.7 x 2 (11.4) is transferred, so Don would theoretically move ahead of RodneyS if 7.3" more snow falls at BTV. RodneyS can also lose ground if BUF gets a further 8.7 to 13.7 inches, but if BTV is not delivering any transfers to Don, BUF alone requires 12.4" additional for Don to move ahead; however if BTV is part way into the 13.5-19.2 inch range of further snow, that plus the BUF snow above 8.6" extra can be treated as aggregately equal to previous analysis of BTV or BUF differential (they need to add up to 3.8" more than RodneyS current deficits and both need to be above). DTW would participate also in overall potential if it gets beyond 11.0" more snow, and NYC, BOS would be in play in unlikely event of 6" or greater at NYC and 15" at BOS. ORD cannot hurt RodneyS's lead either. Third place currently hudsonvalley21 probably has one possible route to a higher finish but needs snow at ORD and BTV with no snow at DTW and BUF (an unlikely combination); so_whats_happening has one potential way forward, a lot of snow at BTV. If it turned out very snowy there in April, the required potential gain on RodneyS would be found at 21.5" more snow, avoiding large falls at various locations where RodneyS has 2-3" protective differentials that could reduce gains.
Also, wxallannj could in theory finish first or very close to first by hitting all required snow at several locations notably BUF and BTV. Anyone above fifth probably has no potential way of getting into this conversation without never-before-seen snowfalls at BOS or other locations.
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Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ...
DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA
Deadline is 06z Apr 2nd (early Tuesday in EDT)
(deadline is one day later in view of Easter weekend timing so regular entrants take note, you can enter or edit up to later deadline, no penalty ... I won't even look at forecasts until Tuesday morning.)
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With all the discussion of another rainfall before end of March, here is the state of play for March 2024 to conquer the five remaining contenders (listing top ten for NYC as of today and former #10 1913) ...
Rank ____ Year ______ Precip _______ 2024 needs to overtake
_ 01 _ ____ 2010 ____ 10. 69" ________ 2.45"
_ 02 _ ____ 1983 ____ 10. 54" ________ 2.30"
_ 03 _ ____ 1980 ____ 10. 41" ________ 2.17"
_ 04 _ ____ 1876 _____ 8.79" _________ 0.55"
_ 05 _ ____ 1953 _____ 8.76" _________ 0.52"
_ 06 _ ____ 2024 _____ 8.24"
_ 07 _ ____ 1912 _____ 7.70" ____ 2024 passed around 3 pm Saturday
_ 08 _ ____ 2001 _____ 7.48" ____ 2024 passed around 2 pm Saturday
_ 09 _ ____ 1977 _____ 7.41" ____ 2024 passed around 2 pm Saturday
_ 10 _ ____ 1993 _____ 6.64" ____ 2024 passed before noon Saturday
_ 11 _ _____ 1913 _____ 6.57" ____ 2024 passed before noon Saturday
(current 11-20 ... 1994, 1984, 2011, 1933, 1944, 1967. 1919, 1942, 1932, 1881_5.81")
all those and current ranks 21 to 54 were passed during Saturday's 3.66" event
========================
Snow-free March
Only three have recorded 0.0" (no trace) ... 1878, 1903, 2012
18 have seen just a trace ... 1894, 1901, 1921, 1925, 1930, 1945, 1946, 1966, 1979, 1983, 1986, 1988, 1995,
2002, 2008, 2010, 2020 and 2021
(2024 would join them as a trace of snow was recorded earlier on 11th)
=======================
Warm March
Current average is 48.0, would rank tied 7th, current top twelve as follows:
1. 1945 __ 51.1
2. 2012 __ 50.9
3. 1946 __ 49.8
4. 2016 __ 48.9
5. 2021 __ 48.4
6. 2010 __ 48.2
7. 2020 __ 48.0 __ 2024 also
8. 1903 __ 47.8
9. 2000 __ 47.2
10. 1979 __ 46.9
11. 1977 __ 46.8
12. 1973 __ 46.4
... 2024 looks likely to stall out in its efforts to pass any of the above, after perhaps getting near 4th place by Friday, it would probably fall back to near where it is now by 31st as averages for last few days fall below 40.
Perhaps others have opinions on that. For the rainfall, would say a one in three chance of catching top three, as rainfall potential looks to be 1.3-1.8 inches (over 2" needed), but nearly certain to pass 4 and 5 on list. Only a slight chance of seeing 0.1" snow to leave that group.
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3.66" at NYC, ranks third highest daily rainfall in March.
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29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
Right, I expected them all to be over 3" by the end of the storm.
Do you think this is going to be our last freezing or below temperatures for the airports and the park tonight or tomorrow night?
Possibly not if GFS 12z was on track, first week of April looks rather cool with a rain-snow threat near end of run (on April 8). Would estimate a -3 anomaly for April 1-8 if that guidance verified, but of course it's the GFS past ten days so ...
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Yes those numbers I posted were in the 4:30 pm early climate reports and it wasn't quite done so your higher values are no doubt correct, we'll see at end of day but I suspect NYC will end up with third highest daily total for month.
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Just passed 8.00" for month, good for 6th wettest, about 0.75" behind 1953 and 1876, first to third are 10 to 11 inches.
The 1876 record one-day event was a strong low from central U.S. and Ohio valley which did a slow coastal transfer (4.25" included 0.5" snow at NYC). It was also on a Saturday (25th). Same storm produced a very heavy snowfall at Toronto (around 17").
Can't help but notice that top daily rainfalls in past cases are well correlated with hot summers or at least one notable hot spell.
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Early reports so far:
3.43" at NYC
3.20" at LGA
2.97" at EWR
2.82" at JFK
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All 2.0" Mar daily precip events for NYC (incl snow for several)
2-day totals inserted into ranks if not same rank as event _ 2d totals do not count Feb or Apr
(2.34" Feb 29 - Mar 1 1896 included 2.26" Feb 29; 2.32" Mar 31 - Apr 1 1997 in table 2.07" 1d)
Rank __ Precip ____ Date _______ snow ___ 2d totals if any additional
_ 01 ___ 4.25 ______ 03-25-1876 (0.5" snow incl) __ 4.31" 2d (.06" 03-26) rank 1 for 2d
_ 02 ___ 3.85 ______ 03-13-2010 _ _ _ _ (4.10" 13-14 2010 _ 3.85+0.25) rank 2 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ (4.03" 29-30 2010 _ 1.58+2.45) rank 3 for 2d
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (3.68" 12-13 1953 _ 1.07+2.61) rank 4 for 2d
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1.40" additional 03-15-1953, 5.08" 4d
new_ 03 _ 3.66 ____ 03-23-2024 _ _ _ _ ranks 5 for 2d _ ranks below add 1 now (no edit)
_ 03 ___ 3.44 ______ 03-22-1977 _ _ _ _ no added 2d __ rank 5 for 2d
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (3.37" 18-19 1983 _ 3.10+0.27) rank 6 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ (3.25" 2d 03-21/22-1980 2.21"+1.04" rank 7 for 2d
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (3.23" 10-11 1901 _ 0.29+2.94) rank 8 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ (3.11" 2d 03-01/02-1914 (2.95+0.16) rank 9 for 2d
_ 04 ___ 3.10 ______ 03-18-1983 _ _ _ _ (3.37" 2d (0.27" 03-19)) rank 6 for 2d
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (3.07" 6-7 1967 _ 1.20+1.87) rank 10 for 2d
_ 05 ___ 2.98 ______ 03-28-2005 _ _ _ _ (3.02" 2d, incl .04" 03-29) rank 11 for 2d
_ 06 ___ 2.95 ______ 03-01-1914 (13.5" snow*) -- 3.11" 2d (0.16" 2nd) rank 9 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-27/28-1932 2.93" (0.55+2.38) rank 12 for 2d
_ 07 ___ 2.94 ______ 03-11-1901 _ _ _ _ _(3.23" 2d, incl 0.29" 03-10) rank 8 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ (2.80" 24-25 1969 (1.17+1.63) rank 13 for 2d
_ 08 ___ 2.63 ______ 03-06-1979 _ _ _ _ (2.77" 2d, incl 0.14" 03-05) rank 14 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-29/30-1951 2.66" (0.53+2.13) rank 15 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-03/04-1906 2.64" (0.39+2.25) rank 16 for 2d
_ 09 ___ 2.61 ______ 03-13-1953 ______ (+1.07" 03-12, 3.68" 2d) rank 4 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-28/29-1984 2.60" (0.57+2.03) rank 17 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-01/02-2007 2.55" (0.14+2.41) rank 18 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-03/04-1991 2.54" (2.17+0.37) rank 19 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-13/14-1993 2.52" (2.37+0.15) rank 20 for 2d
_ 10 ___ 2.45 ______ 03-30-2010 _ _ _ _ 2d 4.03" 29-30 2010 _ 1.58+2.45 rank 3 for 2d
_ 11 ___ 2.41 _______ 03-02-2007 _ _ _ _ 2d 2.55" (incl 0.14" 03-01-2007) rank 18 for 2d
_ 12 ___ 2.38 ______ 03-28-1932 _ _ _ _ 2d 2.93" (incl 0.55" 03-27-1932) rank 12 for 2d
_ 13 ___ 2.37 ______ 03-13-1993 _10.2" snow _ 2d 2.52" (incl 0.15" 03-14) _0.4" snow 03-14 rank 19 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 2.40" 03-13/14-1984 2.31+0.09) rank 21 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 2.37" 03-29/30-2001 0.21+2.16) rank 22 for 2d
_ 14 ___ 2.36 ______ 03-01-1987 _ _ _ _ (added .03" on Feb 28, trace 03-02-1987) rank 23 for 2d^
_ 15 ___ 2.33 ______ 03-12-1962 _ _ _ _ no added 2d __ rank t24 for 2d (ties 03-20/21-1871 0.36+1.97)
_ 16 ___ 2.31 ______ 03-13-1984 _ _ _ _ 2d 2.40" (incl 0.09" 03-14) rank 21 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-15/16-2007^ 2.35" (0.32+2.03) rank 26 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-08/09-1998 2.32" (0.50+1.82) rank 27 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-21/22-2001 2.31" (1.03+1.28) rank 28 for 2d
_t17 ___ 2.25 ______ 03-25-1872 (Tr snow) _ no added 2d _ rank 29 for 2d
_t17 ___ 2.25 ______ 03-03-1906 _ _ _ _ 2.64" 2d (0.39" 2nd) rank 16 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.24" 2d 03-01/02-2018 (0.38+1.86) rank 30 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.23" 2d 03-19/20-1881 (2.19+.04) rank 31 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-26/27-1909 2.20" (1.42+0.78) rank t32 for 2d
_ 19 ___ 2.21 ______ 03-21-1980 _ _ _ _ 3.25" 2d (2.21+1.04" 22nd) rank 7 for 2d
_ 20 ___ 2.20 _____ 03-31-1934 (added only .06" April 1st) rank t32 for 2d
_ 21 ___ 2.19 ______ 03-19-1881 _ _ _ _ 2.23" 2d (.04" 03-20) rank 31 for 2d
_ 22 ___ 2.17 ______ 03-03-1991 _ _ _ _ 2.54" 2d (.37" 03-04-1991) rank 18 for 2d
_ 23 ___ 2.16 ______ 03-30-2001 _ _ _ _ 2.37" 2d (.21" 03-29) rank 22 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.16" 2d 03-28/29-2014 (1.81+0.35) rank 34 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.15" 2d 03-27/28-1919 (1.79+0.36, incl 1.4" snow) rank t35 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.15" 2d 03-05/06-1920 (1.81+0.34, total 2.7" snow) rank t35 for 2d
_ 24 ___ 2.13 ______03-30-1951 _ _ _ _ 2.66" 2d (.53" 03-29) rank 15 for 2d
_ 25 ___ 2.12 ______ 03-25-1909 _ _ _ 2.13" 2d (.01" 03-24) rank 37 for 2d
_ 26 ___ 2.07 ______ 03-31-1997 (0.25" fell Apr 1, not counted as 2d) rank 38 for 2d
_ 27 ___ 2.05 _____ 03-24-1989 _ _ _ _ no added 2d ___ rank 39 for 2d
_t28 ___ 2.03 _____ 03-29-1984 (incl 1.8" snow) _ 2.60" 2d (0.57"+2.03") rank 17 for 2d
_t28 ___ 2.03 _____ 03-16-2007 (incl 5.5" snow, sleet also) _ 2d 2.35" incl .23" 03-15 rank 26 for 2d
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2.10" 2d 03-11/12-1888 (19.5" snow) rank t40 for 2d
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2.10" 2d 03-06/07-2011 (2.01"+.09") rank t40 for 2d
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2.04" 2d 03-12/13-1944 (0.11"+1.93") rank 42 for 2d
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2.03" 2d 03-12/13-1912 (unk sleet, snow) 1.79"+0.24" rank 43 for 2d
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (1.81" also 03-15-1912, 4d 3.83")
_ 30 ___ 2.02 _____ 03-31-1980 (added only .01" Apr 1st) __ rank 44 for 2d
_ 31 ___ 2.01 ______ 03-06-2011 (2d total 2.10" as .09" on 03-07-2011, also 1.98" 03-10/11-2011.
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ (2.01" 7-8 1941 (0.23" + 1.78") (18.1" sn) _ rank 45 for 2d)
_ 32 ___ 2.00 _____ 03-21-1974 _ _ _ _ no added 2d ___ rank 46 for 2d
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ (2.00" 11-12 1936 (1.51" + 0.49") _ rank 47 for 2d)
__________________________________________________
* +1.0" snow for 14.5" total (2nd), very low pressure near 950
So 32 days exceeded or tied 2.00" and 47 events ran up 2.00" over two days (a few did not get any additional rainfall or very little).
It's a frequency of about once every five years for daily, once every four years for 2d events.
For 32 daily events, and 47 2d events (15 not qualifying for daily 2.0"), 31-year equal periods scored as follows:
A 1869-1899 _ 3 (+2) __ 5
B 1900-1930 _ 4 (+4) __8
C 1931-1961 _ 4 (+3) __ 7
D 1962-1992 _12 (+2) _ 14
E 1993-2023 _ 9 (+4) _ 13
F 2024-2054 _ 1
Since about 1977 a general increase in frequency occurs, 1940s and 1950s into 1960s score very low.
A list in order of occurrence in groups as counted above:
List of 2.0" precip events in order of occurrence
(all events listed 2d totals, underlined are 15/47 not including a 2.0" daily value)
A 1871_2.33" ... 1872_2.25" ... 1876_4.31" ... 1881_2.23" ...1888_2.10"
B 1901_3.23" ... 1906_2.64" ... 1909_2.13" ... 1912_2.03" ... 1913_2.20" ... 1914_3.11" ... 1919_2.15" ... 1920_2.15"
C 1932_2.93" ... 1934_ 2.20" ... 1936_2.00" ... 1941_2.01" ... 1944_2.04" ... 1951_2.66" ... 1953_3.37" ...
D 1962_2.33" ... 1967_3.07" ... 1969_2.80" ... 1974_2.00" ... 1977_3.44" ... 1979_2.77" ... 1980_3.25", 2.02" ... 1983_3.37", ... 1984_2.40", 2.60" ... 1987_2.36" ... 1989_2.05" ... 1991_2.54" ...
E 1993_2.52" ... 1997_2.07" ... 1998_2.32" ... 2001_2.31", 2.37" ... 2005_3.02" ... 2007_2.55", 2.35" ... 2010_4.10", 4.03" ... 2011_2.10" ... 2014_2.31" ... 2018_2.24" (F 2024_3.66")
Note 47 events in 42 years as 5 (1980, 1984, 2001, 2007, 2010) recorded two events.
now 48 events in 43 years.
155/42 = 3.7 (year return period for events, increasing probability of two in one year)
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Rainfall record for 23rd is 1.60" (1929), one of lower ones (Friday's record 3.44" in 1977, Sunday's 2.05" in 1989).
The monthly record of 4.25" precip (incl 0.5" snow) was on 25th in 1876. 3.86" on 13th of 2010 is second highest daily value of this month. The 22nd 1977 value is third, and 3.10" on 19th (1983) is fourth.
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In 1915 a record 10.2" of snow April 3-4 was followed by two record highs later in April (25th 91F, 27th 92F). 1938 and 1942 also saw significant early April snowfalls and very warm highs later in the month. 1917 went the other way, setting a record high on 1st (83F) and 6.4" snow on 9th.
April 2024 temperature forecast contest
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Posted
Preliminary scoring estimates for April 2024
_ based on latest projections in previous post _
(Apr 16 est) _________________________________+1.5 _+2.0 _+0.5 ____ +3.0 _+1.5 _+3.5 __________ +4.0 _ 0.0 _-1.0
FORECASTER _________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA_west ___ TOTAL
rainsucks ______________________________ 60 _ 66 _ 40 __ 166 __ 90 _ 80 _ 72 __ 242 _ 408 _ 68 _ 80 _ 50 __ 198 ____ 606
hudsonvalley21 ________________________ 68 _ 56 _ 38 __ 162 __ 96 _ 88 _ 82 __ 266 _ 428 _ 74 _ 54 _ 22 __ 150 ____ 578
wxallannj ______________________________ 86 _ 92 _ 58 __ 236 __ 96 _ 80 _ 54 __ 230 _ 466 _ 68 _ 90 _ 90 __ 248 ____ 714
Roger Smith ___________________________ 90 _ 96 _ 60 __ 246 __ 86 _ 88 _ 86 __ 260 _ 506 _ 76 _ 80 _ 76 __ 232 ____ 738
RJay ___________________________________ 90 _100 _ 70 __ 260 __ 80 _ 90 _ 50 __ 220 _ 480 _ 40 _100 _ 80 __220 ____ 700
Tom ____________________________________98 _ 96 _ 74 __ 268 __ 82 _ 94 _ 60 __ 236 _ 504 _ 38 _ 88 _ 76 __ 202 ____ 706
___ Consensus _________________________98 _ 94 _ 72 __ 264 __ 82 _ 94 _ 60 __ 236 _ 500 _ 40 _ 92 _ 68 __ 200 ____ 700
BKViking ______________________________ 100 _ 92 _ 80 __272 __ 78 _ 90 _ 60 __ 228 _ 500 _ 24 _ 80 _ 62 __ 166 ____ 666
DonSutherland1 _______________________ 100 _ 90 _ 86 __276 __ 74 _ 76 _ 30 __ 180 _ 456 _ 30 _ 84 _ 64 __ 178 ____ 634
Scotty Lightning ______________________ 100 _ 80 _ 90 __270 __ 70 _ 90 _ 70 __ 230 _ 500 _ 60 _ 60 _ 50 __ 170 ____ 670
so_whats_happening ___________________96 _ 92 _ 70 __ 258 __ 92 _ 90 _ 46 __ 228 _ 486 _ 36 _100 _ 72 __ 208 ____ 694
wxdude64 ______________________________92 _ 80 _ 90 __ 262 __ 60 _ 72 _ 32 __ 164 _ 426 _ 32 _ 96 _ 62 __ 190 ____ 616
___ Normal ______________________________70 _ 60 _ 90 __ 220 __ 40 _ 70 _ 30 __ 140 _ 360 _ 20 _100 _ 80 __ 200 ____ 560
RodneyS ________________________________64 _ 82 _ 92 __ 238 __ 38 _ 66 _ 52 __ 156 _ 394 _ 32 _ 62 _ 84 __ 178 ____ 572
Persistence ____________________________ 44 _ 34 _ 36 __ 114 __ 60 _ 66 _ 86 __ 212 _ 326 _ 16 _ 76 _ 78 __ 170 ____ 496
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Extreme forecasts
_ BOS (if below +1.0) would be a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast (+0.9), and a loss for Normal (if above +0.4). RodneyS cannot be in a contest loss position against Normal (shares a win for +0.4 or below) but would be at +1.0 against wxdude and Scotty. At +1.1 or above, BOS no longer qualifies.
_ ORD (if +3.0) would be a win for hudsonvalley21 (+3.2) and wxallannj (+2.8) and a loss for rainsucks (+3.5). At +3.1 to +3.3 wxallannj drops out of shared win, at +3.4 or above rainsucks has a win (no losses). At +2.9 or below, ORD does not qualify (third forecast would have top score).
_ IAH (if +3.5 or any value +2.7 or above) would be a win for Roger S (+2.8), shared with hudsonvalley21 at +2.7 ... becomes a win-loss at +2.6 and drops out of qualifying below +2.4.
_DEN (if +3.5 or any value +2.7 or above) would be a win for Roger S (+2.8), shared with hudsonvalley21 at +2.7 ... becomes a win-loss at +2.6 and drops out of qualifying below +2.4.
_SEA (if -1.0 or any value -0.3 or below) would be a win for wxallannj (-0.5), if -0.3 or below becomes a win for RpdneyS and a loss for wxallannj).
So ... no guarantee preliminary scoring will be accurate but range is not great so anyone could end up tops, we'll revisit on or about April 30.
Just a note, will be on a two-week wilderness sortie (limited internet access) Apr 22 to first week of may, could be a bit slow getting to scoring and will be posting a new contest before usual time, will ask one of you to mind store during time away).
It may be a few days into next cycle before I can post an annual scoring update or adjust scores above, don't know yet.