Roger Smith

Radar has almost Andrew-like appearance:

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles

(different track but Charley 2004 perhaps)

Heading straight for Roseau Dominica unfortunately, pray for a wobble. 

Maria is on a track running slightly north of that taken by the Great Hurricane of October 1780 which ran from just north of Barbados (on Oct 9) across St Lucia and Martinique then northwest to the Mona Passage west of Puerto Rico. That storm killed over twenty thousand people and from the damage reports must have been a cat-5 when north of Barbados. This storm apparently tracked north-northeast after leaving Hispaniola and missed Bermuda slightly to the southeast.

Another interesting factoid is that there had been two previous major hurricanes (three counting one in June), one of which hit New Orleans on August 24 and the other hitting Cuba and the Bahamas about a week before the Great Hurricane. And there was to be yet another major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico ten days later.

The only good thing about this hurricane season is that some of us are learning a lot about the Leeward Islands.

Dominica is an independent nation state with just under 100k residents. About one third of those live in or near the capital Roseau which is on the southwest coast, so if the eye tracks across the island they would likely see very strong NE then NW winds and therefore not as protected from storm surge as one might initially suppose. I checked a news website and the island is on high alert with the government warning people to move away from coasts and rivers that might flood, remove potential flying debris etc. 

Martinique to south and Guadeloupe to north are both integral parts of France and populations of both islands are roughly similar (400k). Guadeloupe is actually two connected islands, Basse Terre and Grande Terre. I was reading that both Hugo and the 1928 "Okeechobee" hurricane devastated the economy of Guadeloupe. Martinique is the island that contains the volcano that erupted in 1902 killing 30k people and changing the location of their capital city in the process. That volcano is near the northern tip of Martinique.

Looks to me like Maria will soon be cat-4 and will have major impacts on all three of these islands (regions). I think the eye will go over central Dominica but this will expose southern parts of Basse-Terre region of Guadeloupe to cat-3 winds as the distance to the track is not that large. 

Just wanted to put one thought "out there" for April 8, 2024. I would be very reluctant to put much money down on cheap accommodations anywhere along that track except possibly south Texas, because of the high risk of large swaths of frontal cloud. My research would suggest the strong chance of low pressure being present somewhere near the NY-PA border with widespread frontal bands. 

I was very happy with the research indicators for the August 21st event, low pressure was very close to the most likely locations in both western Canada (not interfering with viewing) and central plains (enough patchy holes in that pattern to give a lot of folks a last minute reprieve, but the research did indicate the least likely spots for good viewing).

Much work remains to be done on this research but there is a definite spike in both precip and cloudiness at new moon events in both March and April for Toronto, the primary research location. And a total eclipse is the newest moon you're ever going to see. Of course reality will be a mix of good and bad viewing but I would put little faith on options in upstate NY or w PA, OH. 

(b) The crowd in a municipal park in Baker City awaits the total spectacle, many using their eclipse glasses. I was thinking of going around the park selling eclipse crackers and eclipse corn chips. 

Some images from Baker City in eastern Oregon.  Looking west towards the approaching "dark spot" -- the hills are already a bit darker than the town. This would be about four minutes before totality, when the western inland counties of Oregon had totality. May have to load these one post at a time, having issues. 
 

Astronomy notes: For anyone looking at their pix and wondering what they captured near the eclipsed Sun, a bright star (Regulus) was located just above and to the left of the eclipsed disk. The Sun moved just below Regulus at 22:06z and I think that appears in at least one posted picture above. Regulus is a "first magnitude" star and about as bright as the less prominent corner stars of Orion, or Castor and Pollux in Gemini, or Spica which these days is just to the left of Jupiter in the evening sky.

Mercury was located below the eclipsed Sun about twelve solar diameters away (Regulus about two), and would appear about as bright as Regulus. Mercury was on its way to "inferior conjunction" or the point in its orbit between Earth and Sun which it reaches on 26th around 06z. This would leave Mercury at a rather average brightness as almost five-sixth of it would be in darkness (the Sun shining mostly on its far side, offset by closer distance to earth than most non-eclipsed views we get). Mercury is currently near its aphelion meaning it is closer to earth than at most inferior conjunctions. 

Venus was very easy to see but very high almost overhead in western states, probably high to west-south-west for eastern watchers. You may have missed it if you didn't scan a wide portion of the darkened sky but to my eye it looked about half as bright as it had earlier in full pre-dawn darkness. 

Mars might have been observable by some, it was located about one-fifth of the way from Sun-moon disk to Venus. Mars was basically behind the Sun back on July 28th and is still over 2.5 a.u. distant from Earth, so a lot less bright than when we see it near opposition in the night sky. Mars is currently approaching its aphelion. It is in the part of its orbit that lies off beyond where earth will be in the first week of February.

Jupiter would have been visible to eastern viewers, rising in the east at eclipse time. 

Currently working on my pictures. 

The models kept giving me a peaceful, easy feeling for Oregon-Idaho from about two weeks back, and by the weekend it was pretty obvious that Oregon would be cloud-free. So we moved up from our week's tour of NV-UT to the hills south of Baker City, OR on Sunday night and had an astounding view. We chose to go down into Baker City, sacrificing 30 seconds of totality for various other gains, but in reality I think 2 min or 2 min 30 sec would be about the same experience. This is my second time in the total zone with visibility and then there was one cloud-out (so 2-1 for those keeping score at home).

Quite the meteorological day -- at 0400, with Venus so bright it was casting shadows in the forestry clearing, temperature felt like about 35 F. By 0800h in Baker City it was maybe 65, then by 0930 about 80 (all under clear skies with the exception of one large contrail). By 1000 (PDT) it was falling back from 80 and by 1015 it was maybe 70 and getting a little less bright by the minute. It then looked like a nice day in January (in terms of ambient sunlight). By 1020 it was 65 degrees and as many of you experienced, the light just went out so fast that a crowd of several thousand people went from awed silence to various shouts of amazement. Then the diamond ring effect flashed on and it was late twilight dark. Venus was now visible again almost directly overhead. I tried to spot Mars closer to the Sun-moon and failed.

During the two minutes of darkness, the corona was quite delicate compared to the 1970 eclipse that I saw (a higher solar count then). I would describe it as two equal portions on the solar equatorial plane and a third one pointing upwards (so at about a 45 degree angle to that plane which at 1022 PDT was oriented "NE-SW" against the eclipsed Sun. At mid-eclipse I spotted a red prominence near that offset portion. The crowd at this point was hooting and hollering encouragement (I assume 90-95% had never seen this before). It was chilly now, maybe 58 F. Then the second diamond ring appeared and the light came back on as abruptly as it had vanished earlier. At this point there was a round of applause mixed with the odd "too soon" commentary. 

I think the temperature minimum came about 1-2 minutes after totality ended (estimate 55 F) then the temperature began to soar back towards its interrupted progression to the ultimate high of about 95 F. An interesting visual phenomenon was that all the tree shadows on the sidewalk moments after the total eclipse had images of the 99% eclipsed sun embedded. I did not spot any ground interference patterns as I had in 1970 at Virginia Beach, and I did notice bird activity consistent with evening. Dogs were going nuts at various times but then big crowds of people can set dogs off as much as strange changes in the light.

The USPS were delivering the mail across the street from the park right at totality so you can add that to the list of things that will not prevent the mail (I guess the internet is the only thing that can).

Pictures are still in my camera (and wife's camera also), not sure if any of my astronomy shots will be all that good but I have some nice views of the approaching darkness on western hills, and of the crowd (which was quite a mixture of ordinary folk, new age types, obvious eclipse-chasing maniacs, and a couple dressed up as court jester and clown). Well, it's the Pacific northwest man. 

Then of the traffic home I shall not speak, except to comment that interstate construction zones forcing three lanes into one are not welcome sights post-eclipse and to rub salt in the wounds, no construction was taking place in most of the blocked off lanes. Oh well, home at last. 

Some of the logistical problems to consider:

Main routes will become clogged with traffic and distracted drivers will add to the chaos. No doubt thousands of people will leave too late for the conditions, become stranded on the road rather than in a good place to view, and will get out of their vehicles when they think they must. This will not blend in well with the normal use of interstate highways as fast arteries for interstate commerce. 

Gas supplies may run low, especially in the 3-6 hours after the eclipse as everyone tries to gas up to go home. Try to plan your eclipse encounter so you are as full as possible just before you need to deploy. There could be long lines at gas stations even just before the eclipse as people think of gassing up then. My plan is to make a right-angle exit on the least travelled road I can find and get 200 miles from the track before needing to fill up. 

I think that unless you have a very secluded target, you should count on a lot of road congestion even on secondary routes, and keep in mind that it will be very dangerous driving with so many distracted people thinking mostly of where they should stop and where they should turn, etc. 

From what I'm hearing, avoid western Oregon, it sounds like it will be wall to wall with west coast travellers, the I-5 is a nasty road to drive even in average conditions and this won't be average. If it's hot in the west, as it has been all summer so far, the bottleneck effect will be made worse by overheated vehicles. 

I am hoping to find that east-central Oregon has a good forecast 36h before the event, and position myself in a remote area of that part of the track, then fine tune my location if mountain effect cloud can be anticipated and avoided. We get a lot of clear weather before noon in the Pacific northwest region so fingers crossed this day will follow the trend. 

I tried for the 1984 total eclipse in northern NC (something like late May, can't remember now) and got mega-clouded-out, pre-internet so not much chance of fine tuning but it was deadly overcast and raining everywhere along the track -- so that was interesting too, it gets extremely dark under cloud cover for two or three minutes. Anyway, saw the Blue Ridge parkway on that trip so not a total bust. (hoping to go 2 for 3 on this one)

Will be there, night of August 19th probably in Utah finishing up a few days of holidays, make a decision where to see it, find a remote campsite within 2-3 hours of track Sunday 20th, and hit the best view weather forecasting can provide (Monday August 21) at 10:22 a.m. PDT around Baker City OR or 11:32 MDT Rexburg ID (times approx). Other locations being considered range from Madras OR to Casper WY. Would avoid the Oregon coast even if skies clear, traffic congestion around Lincoln City OR is always a problem and with half of Portland there to see this, a no go zone. Would also not be leaving a location to the last minute near I-5 (Albany OR) as it could get very congested along the interstate.

Best bet for clear skies by climatology is the OR-ID border near Huntingdon OR (last exit in Oregon from I-84, 70 miles northwest Boise which is just outside the path, 70% chance). The good thing about a morning eclipse is, afternoon convection over the inland western valleys and ranges not yet underway and if a bit of that has started, the cooling effect of the eclipse will suppress it further. In Nebraska by the way, Grand Island is near the center line (2 min 30 sec totality) and that's right at 1:00 p.m. CDT. Casper WY is around 11:45 MDT and it's also right on the line. Nebraska chasers are probably going to be dealing with a frontal system somewhere in that state, would not be too fixed on one location and time (it moves very fast, takes about 15 minutes to cross each state). Definitely check the latest guidance morning of, and avoid obvious frontal cloud zones.

Saw a total eclipse in Virginia Beach in March 1970, awesome display, the diamond ring effect is stunning (at both ends of totality). Also quite awe-inspiring is the rapid descent into darkness and natural signs on display such as birds calling. Don't miss this one if you have a chance (but don't take my campsite).

Motels in the totality path and nearby are already fully booked and charging astronomical rates. Not sure how far outside the zone this now applies, a month ago the rates were holding near regular prices at 100 miles outside the zone (not a bad option given the late morning to afternoon timing). You need a plan where you camp outside the zone or cheap motel well outside the zone, and drive in to make it feasible. Helps if you live in that nearby stretch, I suppose worst case scenario would be to pull an all-nighter (from almost anywhere in the U.S.A.) and just be there, you'll get your sleep in a rest stop and then figure out the details of getting home again. 

Haima the official name, Lawin used by Philippines. Just in case there's news, same typhoon. 

Where did Josh set up? 

While we were all watching Matthew, a super typhoon erupted over the southwestern Japanese island chain (Chaba) and it is now in the East China Sea heading due north (center 915 mb, peak winds 105 kt gusting 150 kt). It more or less missed Okinawa but nailed a smaller island in the chain, no casualties reported (have posted a link). It will weaken to about cat-2 before skimming northern Kyushu and coastal north Honshu as well as outer parts of South Korea. 

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20161004_07/

Eye has moved back over water, rainfall now about 39 inches at Taipingshan (985 mm in 24.5 hours to 1630z) and over 24 inches at several locations in the central highlands. 

Reports of 21 inches of rain already (in about 14 hours) at Taipingshan, just inland from landfall zone, eye is close to east coast now.

Incoming Megi approaching Taiwan for probable direct hit north-central late today into tonight local time (which is 8h ahead of GMT so around 12-15z Tuesday). At time of posting, 1940z = 0340h Tuesday 27th in Taiwan Standard Time. This is the time stamp on radar link below.

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/

Current forecast intensity appears to be high end cat 2 or low cat 3 in NATL terms, dropping to 1/2 by time the eye leaves western Taiwan (on current forecasts that would be 20z Tuesday). 

Hengchun near south tip of Taiwan has 15-min updates of all parameters ... currently 966 mb and 8 inches of rain in 9.5 hours with wind gusts to 180 km/hr (about 112 mph). 

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/real/46759.htm

There was a buoy off the south coast reporting but it went down around 00z. Radar shows eye about 50 nm south of this location.

Lanyu (Orchid Island) offshore to east of south tip of Taiwan recently reporting gusts to near 60 m/sec which translates to about 135 mph. Track prediction is off the southwest coast of Taiwan, at least cat-2 if not cat-3 conditions could spread across that region today, and if track is any closer, cat-4 is possible. Penghu Island off west coast of Taiwan will eventually take almost a direct hit, their hope lies in eventual weakening by that time (about 18z), storm still looks very strong on satellite (which can be accessed from same website as the radar above). 

Eye now visible on Taiwan radar. 

Local time is 8 hours ahead of GMT, in other words, 23z or 7 pm EDT (4 pm PDT) is 0700h Wednesday 14th in Taiwan. 

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/

Such a epic storm and season. I'd cut off a testicle for another winter like that.

as long as it's your own, just sayin ...

Recent lightning in vicinity of bombing low.

http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/explorer.html

She's a comin.

Okay, had a look at my Toronto data (1841 to 2013) which should run fairly similar in trends. The same things can be seen in this data as what you've reported. But as I looked at 1984 to 2013, I have the advantage of having columns of daily data and could easily see that four years (1995, 2005, 2006, 2013) had massive spikes on the 12th and 13th. Take those years out of the data and the other 26 years show almost no anomalous warmth on 12th-13th. The two curves (30-year and 26-selected-years) are almost identical except that there is a 3.5 F drop for the 12th and 13th (and 1.5 on the 30th). So the large spike in the data for 1984-2013 are almost entirely due to the anomalous warmth of four of the thirty years.

As to any other explanations, nothing comes to mind. Just seems that the recent 30 years were dominated by these four very warm episodes as well as the super cold episode of Jan 1994 which leaves an imprint a few days later (15th in my Toronto data is a full 9 deg colder than 13th in all years 1984-2013, and 5 deg colder in the 26 years not counting the four warm ones). 1984 also had a very cold interval around the mid-month dates.

Longer term, what I noticed by dividing the data into large time segments and fiddling with boundaries was that from about 1841 to 1872 (before your data set starts) the data are much colder in the first half of January than since 1872, whereas the data in second half have not warmed that much if any. Also, the so-called January thaw can be seen drifting later through the data sets from 17th-19th in the middle of the 19th century, to 21st-22nd in the 20th century, but more like 23rd-24th in more recent times, also that signal has weakened somewhat relative to all data and shows signs of a split, as though one component of it wants to stay fixed on 21st but other components are drifting forward in time.

Does this help in any way?

Is a sports analogy valid here? The weather data in question are sets that are very close together. Large variations in frequency could be anticipated when looking at higher and lower data points among such sets. The only real test would be random variability as in coin toss frequencies and while the change looks rather large, it probably falls within about a 2-s.d. range of random expectation. So I don't know if we can really deduce much of a "reason" for these results, it certainly isn't as indicative of a background explanation as that much of a change in a sports team's performance. I am going to look into it further since I am always intrigued by singularities that move gradually in a time series from my research perspective.

One example would be the January thaw. If there were such an animal and it was expected around Jan 21, then if it had an external forcing cause, you could expect that to occur 1.5 days earlier every century, on average, in a constant Gregorian time frame. That is due to precession of the earth's axis in space. Let's say there are weak but significant resonances between the Sun and the mass of the galactic equator or various other fixed sources. Then these would occur 1.5 days later every century, or .015 days earlier every year. Nothing there that we could apply to changes in a 30-year normal set, but it's the kind of shift that I look for in weather data sets when assessing signal strength. Some other background factors move a lot faster, so I'll have a look at what actual differences you're noting and see if I can see anything.

The other factor to consider is that micro-climates have quite large signals in data, if you re-site an airport weather station it can lead to "normal" shifts of up to 3 F deg (!) and not every type of weather makes the same shift when you re-site. Just the very local radiation budget is quite significant. I did an experiment as part of my own education on boundaries of urban heat islands and found that the "normal" monthly temperature at a normally situated weather station would vary by that 3 F deg amount if you just moved the instruments as little as 30 feet and changed the surrounding environment by as little as having a couple of small trees nearer to the thermometer, or an unused unheated building closer. It was the equivalent of driving thirty miles north or south to a similar site at similar elevation to your control site.

Here it comes, severe cold and then snowstorms for the south coast (of B.C.) across the border into western WA and all the way east to Montana. I think Vancouver Island is going to get buried mid-week once the severe cold starts flowing out of the local fjords. Would expect about 15-30 cms snow in total around Vancouver and 25-50 cms possibly more locally in southeast Vancouver Island. This will play out as sleet or rain at first in Puget Sound but could turn to heavy snow by mid-week there as well. Definitely a heavy snow situation for the local lower elevation slopes (Whistler is already nicely covered).

Severe cold into the BC interior and across western Canada, could reach -45 C or lower in places.

Might reach -8 to -12 C here as well, after no real winter of any kind so far.