Jump to content

Roger Smith

Members
  • Content count

    2,848
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by Roger Smith


  1. --- -- <<<<==== provisional Annual Scoring Jan - Sep 2018 ====>>>> -- ----

     

      Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) 

    ... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red)

    ... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals.

    ... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown.

    ... May (none in July) best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked*

    ... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five  three months including May by end of year (did not in June, did in July, not in Aug or Sep).

    ... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months)

    ... same protocol will be applied to any high scores of Mercurial, JAN high scores c/e and all nine, and four other added regular forecaster high scores marked ^

    ... ... but H2O (one ATL Jan) was tied already so no high score added (dmillz25 had same score marked as high score already).

    ... in the western contest, Cerakoter1984 had high score for PHX in April, regular forecaster RodneyS adds one there (marked #)

    ... same thing entirely for NRGJeff's high score PHX in January (Rodney S adds another, so the # denotes 2 added now)

    ... note the cut-off for this will be three months entered, meaning H20_Town_WX, mappy, Orangeburgwx retain sole possession of their high scores. 

    ... if any of the 2-forecast people mentioned above enter again, the regular forecaster add-ons will be withdrawn. 

     

     FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores

     

    Roger Smith ________618 _648 _624 ___1890 ____ 488 _542 _434 ____1464 ___ 3354 __2*3*2 13*1 .3.1 __ MAY

    wxallannj __________ 528 _562 _594 ____1684 ____ 436 _482 _563 ____1481 ___ 3165 ___ 001 001 .0.0 

    DonSutherland.1 ___  540 _554 _534 ____1628 ____ 427 _567 _493 ____1487 ___ 3115 ___ 000 220 .0.1 

    ___Consensus ______ 511 _545 _560 ____1616 ____ 431_513 _535 ____1479 ___ 3095 ___ 000 100 .0.0

    RJay ______________498 _526 _559 ____1583 ____ 375 _530 _577 ____1482 ___ 3065 ___ 223 012 .3.2 APR, AUG, SEP

    hudsonvalley21 _____ 491 _526 _516 ____1533 ____ 389 _497 _633 ___ 1519___ 3052 ___ 000 001 .0.1

    BKViking ___________502 _576 _573 ____1651 ____ 389 _471 _540 ____1400 ___ 3051 ___ 001 000 .0.1

    Tom ______________ 417 _445 _471 ____1597 ____ 353 _481 _407 ____1452 ___ 3049 ___ 001 000 .0.0 __ JUN

    jaxjagman _________ 518 _516 _522 ____1556 ____ 421 _521 _551 ____1493 ___ 3049 ___ 001 000 .0.1

    wxdude64 _________ 571 _528 _507 ____1606 ____ 426 _472 _486 ____1384 ___ 2990 ___34^0 002 .2.0

    RodneyS ___________488 _548 _522 ____1558 ____ 459 _455 _506 ____1420 ___ 2978 ___ 220 300 .0.3 _ MAR, JUL

    Stebo _____________ 455 _492 _506 ____1453 ____ 435 _506 _532 ____1473 ___ 2926 ___ 000 111 .0.1

    Scotty Lightning (SD) _517 _521 _506 ___ 1544 ____ 403 _476 _491 ____1370 ___ 2914 ___2^11 102 .2^.1 _ JAN^

    dmillz25 ___________ 455 _471 _477 ____1403 ____ 387 _494 _554 ____1435 ___ 2838 ___ 000 011 .0.0

    ___Normal _________458 _473 _449 ____1380 ____ 372 _453 _387 ____1212 ___ 2592 ___ 001 111 .0.0 __ JAN^

    so_whats_happening*_327 _375_398 ____1100 ____ 360 _423 _400 ____1183 ___ 2283 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB

    mappy (5/9) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0

    Orangeburgwx _(5/9)_179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0

    afewUniverses bn (2)_114 _122 _144 ____ 380 ____ 139 _108 _180 ____ 427 ____ 807 ___ 110 011 .0.0

    Mercurial (2/9) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN

    H2O_Town_WX (3/9)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0

    H2O ___(2/9) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0

    nrgJeff _ (2/9) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___

    buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___

    Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ 

    tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___

    CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___

    _________ (1 mo F) _^^

    note: * so_whats_happening missed July, September

    all shown (2/9) missed March to September, Orangeburgwx (5/9) missed January, July, August, September

     ... mappy (5/9) missed June to September, and H2OTown_wx (3/9) missed April to September.

      

     Part Two: Western and All Nine contests

     ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals

     for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring

     

     FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank)


    Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 473 _ 662 _ 588 ____ 1723 __________1 1 2 __ Apr, Aug __ 4637 (= 7)

    BKViking _______________404 _ 633 _ 601 ____ 1638 __________ 0 1 1 ____________ 4689 (= 4) __ JUN

    DonSutherland.1 ________ 460 _ 620 _ 519 _____1599 __________2^1 1 __ Jan ______ 4714 (= 3) _ JAN^

    RodneyS_______________ 514 _ 628 _ 475 ____ 1617 __________ 1 3#1 __May ______ 4595 (= 8)  MAR,APR,JUL,SEP

    hudsonvalley21 _________ 457 _ 589 _ 563 _____1609 __________ 0 2 1 __ Jul _______4661 (= 5)

    __ Consensus __________ 430 _ 624 _ 524 _____1578 __________ 0 1 0 _____________4673 (= 4)

    RJay __________________457 _ 556 _ 562 _____1575 __________ 3 1 1 __ Sep _______4640 (= 6)

    wxallannj ______________ 460 _ 644 _ 453 _____1557 __________1 1 0 __ Mar _______4722 (= 2)

    Roger Smith ____________411 _ 584 _ 548 _____1543 __________ 2 0 2 __ Jan _______4897 (= 1) __ MAY

    Tom __________________ 470 _ 582 _ 488 _____1540 __________ 1 0 0 _____________4589 (= 9) 

    dmillz25 _______________ 375 _ 596 _ 533 _____1504 __________ 0 1 0 __ Jun _______ 4342 (=12)

    __Normal ______________422 _ 530 _ 498 _____1450 __________ 2 1 1 _____________ 4042 (=13) __ FEB

    wxdude64 _____________ 436 _ 541 _ 433 _____1410 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 4400 (=11)

    jaxjagman _____________ 348 _ 546 _ 514 _____1408 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 4457 (=10)

    so_whats_happening* ____313 _ 445 _ 379 _____1137 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3420 (=14) __ FEB

    Stebo _________________ 274 _ 519 _ 310 _____1103 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 4029 (=13)

    Orangeburgwx (5/9)______251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb _______ 2090 (=15)

    mappy (5/9) ____________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 1722 (=16)

    H2OTown__WX (3/9) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=20)

    afewUniv bn (2 mo May,Jul)132 _ 172 _ 024 _____ 328 __________ 1 0 0 _____________ 1135 (=17)

    Mercurial __ (2/9) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=18) __ JAN

    nrgJeff ____ _(2/9) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21)

    H2O ____ (2/9) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19)

    cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr)_ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22)

    tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24)

    buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23)

    CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25)

     __________________________________________________________________________________________________

      

    Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - September _) -- provisional for Sept

     

    REGION _________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL

    New York City _____ 1957 ____ 1786 ____ 1941 _____ 5684

    Mid-Atlantic _______ 1958 ____ 1807 ____ 1739 _____ 5504

    Philadelphia _______ 1905 ____ 1588 ____ 1777 _____ 5270

    Central + Western __2044 ____ 1603 ____ 1589 _____ 5236

    __ Consensus _____ 1616 ____ 1479 ____ 1578 _____ 4673

    Tenn Valley _______ 1604 ____ 1493 ____ 1418 _____ 4515

    __ Normal ________ 1380 _____1212 ____ 1450 _____ 4042

    Great Lakes Oh Val _ 1453 ____ 1473 _____1103 _____ 4029


  2. Provisional scoring for September 2018

    Scores are based on latest posted estimates for end of month in previous post.

    Late penalty reductions of 1 or 2 per cent are in the score line, * for each point ...

    ... a separate reduced score line is shown for wxdude64 who drops 6%.

    High scores in red are also extreme forecast winners (at present). High score in orange is an extreme forecast winner from second most extreme (BOS) or tie on points due to late penalty reduction for extreme forecast (DCA). Score in orange with ^ symbol is extreme forecast "loss" (BOS). 

    High scores in blue would be for coldest forecasts but this does not apply, scores in blue instead show results for coldest forecasts ... other high scores are in bold type.

    Raw scores for ATL and DEN are too low by rules, boosted to 60-55-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-16-12-08-04 (no raw scores were above the progression). 

    There was a four-way tie for 35 for ATL, also consensus which does not alter other scores, so the next score after 35 was 16 (two tied). 

     

    FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS __ east __ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent __c/e___ DEN_PHX_SEA __ west ___ TOTAL

     

    RJay ___________ NYC ____ 90 _ 80 _100___ 270 ___ 60 _ 60_100 ___ 220__ 490 ___60 _ 80_100__ 240____ 730

    Tom ___________ PHL _____82 _ 90 _ 92 ___ 264 ___ 58 _ 55 _ 98 ___ 211 __ 475 ___ 45 _ 66 _ 92 __ 203 ____ 678

    RodneyS ________ M A ____ 72 _100_ 82 ___ 254 ___ 84 _ 35 _ 76 ___ 195 __ 449 ___ 50 _ 70 _ 74 __ 194 ____ 643

    Roger Smith ____ C + W ___ 82 _ 92 _ 96 ___ 270 ___50 _ 16 _ 74 ___ 140 __ 410 ___ 55 _ 66 _100__ 221 ____ 631

    wxallannj _______ NYC ____ 72 _ 78 _ 98 ___ 248 ___ 40 _ 50 _ 90 ___ 180 __ 428 ___ 40 _ 80 _ 70 __ 190 ____ 618

    dmillz25 __ (-2%) _NYC ___ 69*_ 96** 84**__ 249 ___ 29*_34*_88**__ 151 __ 400 ___ 39*_69*_98**_206 ____ 606

     

    __ Consensus ____________ 70 _100 _ 82 ___ 252 ___ 40 _ 35 _ 84 ___ 159 __ 411 __ 30 _ 70 _ 92 __ 192 ____ 603

     

    BKViking __ (-1%) _NYC ___ 67*_ 99*_ 81*__ 247 ___ 36 _ 04 _ 83*___ 123 __ 370 ___ 30 _ 65*_ 99*_ 194 ____ 564

    DonSutherland.1 _ NYC ____ 68 _ 90 _ 60 ___ 218 ___ 44 _ 45 _ 68 ___ 157 __ 375 ___ 12 _ 80 _ 76 __ 168 ____ 543

    hudsonvalley21 __ NYC ____ 54 _ 82 _ 76 ___ 212 ___ 18 _ 16 _ 92 ___ 126 __ 338 ___ 25 _ 86 _ 88 __ 199 ____ 537

    jaxjagman ______ TNV ____ 60 _ 88 _ 58 ___ 206 ___ 26 _ 35 _ 86 ___ 147 __ 353 ___ 16 _ 78 _ 80 __ 174 ____ 527

    Stebo _________ GL/OV ___ 66 _ 96 _ 70 ___ 232 ___ 30 _ 40 _ 80 ___ 150 __ 382 ___ 08 _ 40 _ 60 __ 108 ____ 490

    Scotty Lightning __ PHL ____ 50 60 40 ___ 150 ___ 10 _ 35 _ 80 ___ 125 __ 275 ___ 25 _ 70 _ 90 __ 185 ____ 460

    wxdude64 _______ M A ____96 _ 70 _ 84 ___ 248 ___ 62 _ 08 _ 52 ___ 122 __ 370 ___ 04 _ 62 _ 28 __ 094 _ 464

    _________ (-6%) _________90 _ 66 _ 79^___235 ___ 58 _ 08 _ 49 ___ 115 __ 350 ___ 04 _ 58 _ 26 __ 088 ____ 438

     

    ___ Normal ___________20 _ 40 _20 __ 080 __ 00 _ 00 _60 __ 060 __ 140 __ 10 _ 50 _ 80 __140 ___ 280

    ______________________________________________________________

     

    Provisional scoring Regional Rumble for September 2018

     

    Region ____________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ Totals

    New York City _______270 _____ 220 _____ 240 ______ 730

    Philadelphia ________ 264 _____ 211 _____ 203 ______ 678

    Mid Atlantic ________ 254 _____ 195 _____ 194 ______ 643

    Central + Western ___ 270 _____ 140 _____ 221 ______ 631

    __ Consensus _______ 252 _____ 159 _____ 192 ______ 603

    TN Valley __________ 206 _____ 147 _____ 174 ______ 527

    Great Lakes / OH val _ 232 _____ 150 _____ 108 ______ 490

    ___ Normal _________080 _____ 060 _____ 140 ______ 280

    __________________________________________________________________

     

    Extreme forecast summary (separate post will appear at final stage)

    DCA _ At +4.0, currently a tie on points after wxdude64 penalized from 96 to 90 .. RJay ties with score of 90 .. will go to wxdude64 if higher than +4.0.

    NYC _ At +3.0, not an extreme forecast win, 6th highest forecast has high score.

    BOS _ At +4.0, a win for RJay (second highest forecast, high score) and a loss for wxdude64 (highest forecast), would go to wxdude64 at +4.3 or higher.

    ORD _ At +5.0, a win for RodneyS (+4.2). 

    ATL _ At +6.0, a win for RJay (+2.5) -- this one more or less settled. 

    IAH _ At +2.0, a win for RJay (+2.0), can change to win-loss situation at +1.9 (Tom would win, Rjay a loss), any cooler and no result.

    DEN _ At +6.0, a win for RJay (+2.5) -- this one also more or less settled. 

    PHX _ At +2.5, a win for hudsonvalley21 (+1.8). 

    SEA _ At +1.0, not an extreme forecast win, result close to consensus.

    The annual standings will be revised when these outcomes are all settled. At the moment, RJay has 5 wins, RodneyS and hudsonvalley21 have one, wxdude64 goes 1-1.

    ___________________________________________

    Annual scoring update to follow later tonight. 


  3. Updated anomaly tracker continued ... actuals compare with predictions made seven days before (colors same). 

     

    __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

    _______ (7d) ______ +9.0 _+7.1 _+9.1 ___ +7.1 _+4.6 _--0.8 ___ --0.9 _+0.1 _+2.8

    ______ (14d) ______ +4.5 _+2.2 _+4.6 ___ +4.5 _+5.5 _--1.2 ___ +4.3 _+2.2 _+1.5

    ______ (21d) ______ +5.1 _+3.3 _+4.8 ___ +6.5 _+6.7 _+0.8 ___ +6.2 _+2.6 _+0.5

     

    _____ (p14d)_NWS __+5.5 _+4.5 _+5.5 ___ +4.5 _+3.8 _--0.5 ___ +1.8 _+0.3 _+0.4

    _____ (p21d)_NWS __+4.0 _+3.0 _+4.5 ___ +6.0 _+6.0 __0.0 ___ +6.2 _+2.5 _+0.5

    _____ (p28d)_NWS __+3.8 _+2.5 _+3.6 ___ +5.0 _+6.0 _+1.7 ___ +5.0 _+2.5 _+1.2

     

    _8th_ (p24d)_GFS ___+3.5 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.0 _+0.5 ___ +3.0 _+0.5 __0.0

    15th_ (p30d)_GFS ___+3.5 _+2.5 _+3.5 ___ +4.5 _+4.0 _+0.5 ___ +4.0 _+2.0 _+0.5

    22nd_ (p30d)_GFS*__ +4.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +5.0 _+6.0 _+2.0 ___ +5.0 _+2.5 _+1.0

    * this entry uses seven days of NWS forecasts (see p28d above) and two days of GFS (29-30).

    ^ later entries will use only NWS forecasts after 24d. 

    note: NWS forecasts did very well to 21st, the average error only 0.47 deg. (west almost perfect)


  4. Seasonal Max 2018 contest

    -- updated Sep 11th ... no new max in August or early September, and table has now migrated to the September thread ...

    ... any changes will also be edited in here, ATL added one degree to 95 on Sept 14th and this changes the leaderboard as shown below.

     

    FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

     

    Max to date ____________ 98 __ 96 __ 98 ___ 97 __ 94 __101 ___105 _ 116 __ 94

     

    Scotty Lightning ____________103 100 __ 97 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _____ 98 _ 114 __ 96

    RJay _____________________ 102 _ 100 __ 99 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 ____102 _ 117 __ 95

    Tom _____________________ 102 __ 99 __ 98 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 _____ 98 _ 119 __ 94

    mappy ___________________ 102 __ 99 __ 96 _____100 __ 97 _ 102 _____ 96 _ 118 __ 90

    hudsonvalley21 ____________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 _____ 99 __ 97 _ 104 _____ 99 _ 115 __ 90

    wxdude64 _________________100 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 102 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 95

    dmillz25 __________________ 100 _ 100 __ 97 ____ 101 _ 101 _ 103 _____100 _ 119 __ 95

    so_whats_happening ________100 __ 99 _ 101 _____ 98 __ 97 _ 103 _____101 _ 119 __ 98

     

    ___ Consensus (mean) ______ 100 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 99 __ 99 _ 102 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 93

     

    Roger Smith _______________100 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 98 _ 102 _ 104 _____107 122 __ 93

    Stebo ____________________ 100 __ 97 __ 95 ____ 101 __ 98 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 92

    DonSutherland.1 ____________ 99 __ 98 __ 97 _____ 95 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 116 __ 88

    BKViking ___________________99 __ 97 __ 95 _____ 99 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 95 _ 116 __ 91

    wxallannj __________________ 99 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 98 __ 94 __ 98 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 91

    jaxjagman _________________ 98 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 97 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 97 _ 121 __ 93

    RodneyS ___________________97 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 94 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 89

    Orangeburgwx ______________ 97 __ 93 __ 91 _____99 _ 102 _ 101 _____ 87 _ 105 __ 90 

     

     

    (table of departures -- red numbers can get higher, black numbers can get lower)

     

    FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH_DEN_PHX_SEA __ Total

     

    DonSutherland.1 ____________1 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 5 __ 0 __ 6 _____ 18

    wxallannj _________________ 1 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 1 __ 1 __ 3 _____  7 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 19

    RodneyS __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 3 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 5 __ 1 __ 5 _____ 19

    ___ Consensus (mean) ______ 2 __ __ 1 _____ 2 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 7 __ 0 __ 1 _____ 21

    wxdude64 _________________2 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 1 __ 6 __ 1 _____ 5 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 22

    BKViking __________________1 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 2 __ 3 __ 1 _____10 __ 0 __ _____ 24

    hudsonvalley21 ____________ 3 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 2 __ 3 _____ 6 __ 1 __ _____ 24

    so_whats_happening ________2 __ 3 __ 3 _____ 1 __ 2 __ 2 _____ __ 3 __ 4 _____ 24

    Stebo ____________________ 2 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 4 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 8 __ 0 __ 2 _____ 25

    jaxjagman ________________ 0 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 0 __ 4 __ 3 _____ 8 __ 5 __ 1  _____ 25

    Roger Smith _______________ 2 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 1 __ 7 __ 3 _____ 2 __ 6 __ 1 _____ 26 

    RJay _____________________ 4 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 4 __ 8 __ 2 _____ 3 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 28

    dmillz25 __________________ 2 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 4 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 5 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 28

    mappy ___________________ 4 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 3 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 9 __ 2 __ _____ 30

    Tom _____________________ 4 __ 3 __ 0 _____ 4 __ 8 __ 2 _____ 7 __ 3 __ 0 _____ 31

    Scotty Lightning ____________5 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 1 __ 6 __ 6 _____ 7 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 34

    Orangeburgwx _____________1 __ 3 __ _____ 2 __ 7 __ 0 ____ 18__11 __ 4 _____ 53

    _____________________________________________________________

    lowest total departures in each group:

     

    eastern three -- 4 __ DonS, wxallannj, jaxjagman, RodneyS

    central three -- 3 __ DonSutherland.1

    western three -- 5 __ RJay

     

    most perfect forecasts (to date) __ 2 __ DonS, wxallannj, RodneyS, jaxjagman, Tom

    kept all departures within 4 deg __ so_whats_happening (5 __ RodneyS)


  5. Despite the generally good performance of models recently in tracking hurricanes 72-96 hours out, is it not true that most of the errors have been actual tracks further right than forecast? I can think of several recent examples, and cannot recall a storm that went left of its predicted track around eastern U.S. landfall. So that might argue for some caution in this consensus about a southward drift and high impacts around Wilmington into SC. The typhoon that recently hit Japan was also a little to the right of its model track despite ominous signs at 48h that it might actually come in west (left). This one may prove to be an exception however. 


  6. The interaction between a hurricane this powerful and a ridge that is best described as moderately strong west of 70W is so full of uncertainty that nobody north of the projected landfall zone should assume they are in any kind of impact-free situation. I think the most likely outcome is for a fast recurvature through the Mid-Atlantic (after the NC landfall) and probably a track through southern New England and across Nova Scotia. Intensity would likely be down to cat-1 or weak cat-2 by the time the center reaches central Chesapeake and tropical storm from about PHL to PWM. I am not seeing much justification for the offshore stalls, loops or southwest motion scenarios. Late October 1963 offered as one example was a time of very strong high pressure ridge formation and six weeks later than this in the season.

    SST values from the current location of the storm to the Cape Lookout to Hatteras zone currently average 29 C. There is almost no 500 mb wind field ahead of the storm at all excluding what it is producing locally. I don't see this ridge holding back the inevitable and most frequent solution of a steady recurve north and northeast over 48 hours after landfall. The impacts would be moderately severe for southeast VA, moderate for regions further north trending to less severe by NYC and New England. But nobody in those regions should be assuming they are just on the sidelines of Florence. Just my opinion and would say this scenario 50% likely, steady west then north movement 30% and the other loops and meanders about 20% likely. 


  7. Don't feel bad about that post, the models had Florence turning north long before where the storm is now. And the original set of projections was a maximum intensity of strong tropical storm. Florence was kind enough to wait for the calendar to flip over before getting a name, so far I don't have any reason to issue two scoring tables. 

    September is only one third over and already the count is 4/3/1 with a chance to go 4/3/2 or (outside chance) 4/3/3 if either Helene or Isaac make major hurricane status.

    The season is now up to 9/5/1 and could go to 9/5/2 or 9/5/3 with the existing storms. 

    It seems like a wide-open contest at this point as we could go back into slumber mode, or keep up this new pace, or something in between. 

    My habit is to start posting full scoring on a provisional basis once September is known, based on our consensus for Oct and Nov-Dec and then adjusting the scoring table whenever reality changes that consensus. So by mid-October you should have a pretty good idea how you stand in this contest. 


  8. First report on anomalies and projections ...

     

    __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

    _______ (7d) ______ +9.0 _+7.1 _+9.1 ___ +7.1 _+4.6 _--0.8 ___ --0.9 _+0.1 _+2.8

     

    _____ (p14d)_NWS __+5.5 _+4.5 _+5.5 ___ +4.5 _+3.8 _--0.5 ___ +1.8 _+0.3 _+0.4

    _____ (p24d)_GFS ___+3.5 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.0 _+0.5 ___ +3.0 _+0.5 __0.0

     

    No new seasonal max so far this month, contest table is back in the July thread. 


  9. Looks like the eye is headed for either eastern Shikoku or the strait between that island and Honshu but in any case a second landfall will occur near Kobe just west of Osaka. Given the populations and port infrastructure of the two landfall areas, the second one will be more problematic. Hoping the first one weakens the storm enough that the second landfall will be less intense, perhaps a strong cat-1 as opposed to 2. Well it won't be long now looking at radar and satellite animations, the thing is accelerating NNE-ward. 

    Roughly 15-20 million people live in the Osaka region then there's Nagoya one bay east, five million more there. 


  10. Forecasts for September, 2018

     

    FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

     

    wxdude64 _ (-6%) _M A ___ +4.2 _+4.5 _+4.8 ___ +3.1 _+0.5 _--0.4 ___ --1.9 _+0.6 _--2.6

    RJay ___________ NYC ____ +3.5 _+4.0 _+4.0 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___ +2.5 _+1.5 _+1.0

    Tom ___________ PHL _____+3.1 _+3.5 _+3.6 ___ +2.9 _+2.1 _+1.9 ___ +1.6 _+0.8 _+0.6

    Roger Smith ____ C + W ___ +3.1 _+3.4 _+3.8 ___ +2.5 _+0.7 _+0.7 ___ +2.4 _+0.8 _+1.0

    wxallannj _______ NYC ____ +2.6 _+4.1 _+3.9 ___ +2.0 _+1.8 _+1.5 ___ +1.3 _+1.5 _--0.5

    RodneyS ________ M A ____ +2.6 _+3.0 _+3.1 ___ +4.2 _+1.0 _+0.8 ___ +1.8 _+1.0 _--0.3

    dmillz25 __ (-2%) _NYC ___ +2.5 _+2.9 _+3.3 ___ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +1.3 _+1.0 _+1.0

     

    __ Consensus ____________ +2.5 _+3.0 _+3.1 ___ +2.0 _+1.0 _+1.2 ___ +0.7 _+1.0 _+0.6

     

    BKViking __ (-1%) _NYC ___ +2.4 _+3.0 _+3.1 ___ +1.8 _+0.3 _+1.2 ___ +0.7 _+0.8 _+1.0

    DonSutherland.1 _ NYC ____ +2.4 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___ +2.2 _+1.4 _+0.4 ___ +0.1 _+1.5 _+2.2

    Stebo _________ GL/OV ___ +2.3 _+2.8 _+2.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.2 _+1.0 ___ --1.0 _--0.5 _--1.0

    jaxjagman ______ TNV ____ +2.0 _+2.4 _+1.9 ___ +1.3 _+1.0 _+1.3 ___ +0.3 _+1.4 __0.0

    hudsonvalley21 __ NYC ____ +1.7 _+2.1 _+2.8 ___ +0.9 _+0.7 _+1.6 ___ +0.5 _+1.8 _+1.6

    Scotty Lightning __ PHL ____ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5

     

    ___ Normal ____________ 0.0__0.0__0.0 ____0.0__0.0__0.0 ____ 0.0__0.0__0.0

    ______________________________________________________________

    color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts, however, Normal is colder for first five. 


  11. Will have some on-scene reports from my travelling friends who are going to ride this out in Kyoto, supposed to be within 50 miles of the eye around 06z to 08z (Tuesday afternoon JST).

    This is a radar I will be watching to check the exact track of Jebi. 

    http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/

    Good satellite imagery here:

    http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms150jp/

    It is midnight in the region now so about 12-15 hours to landfalls and impacts (first Shikoku Island, eastern half, then near Kobe west of Osaka, storm accelerates and moves across Honshu in a few hours and then at TS intensity up the north coast as far as western Hokkaido). My friends are in a modern style hotel that is a smaller building than some nearby, and the whole area is flat but 45 metres above sea level so I'm thinking no real flooding or tsunami potential, they are also on the west side of the building so much of the storm will be producing east to south winds and they are relatively sheltered from those. If the track stays a bit west, should be close to remnants of eyewall during height of storm, hoping for some interesting accounts if not pictures. Told them to expect a bit of a cleanup day outside on Wednesday then back to normal. 


  12. our seasons contest update

     

    SUMMER 2018 (June, July, August)

     

    ______________________ score ______________ score _______________ score (totals)

    FORECASTER ______ (original six) __ Points ___  (western) __ Points ____ (all nine) __ Points

    wxallannj _____________1470 ___ 10__________ 606 ______ 1________ 2076 _____10

    ___ Consensus ________ 1400 ___ 5 __________ 614 ______ 2 ________2014 _____ 7

    BKViking _____________ 1406 ____ 7 __________607 ______ 1 _______ 2013 _____ 7

    Don Sutherland.1 ______ 1346 ____ 5 __________632 ______ 6 _______ 1978 _____ 6

    Tom _________________1402 ____ 6 __________562 ______ 1 ________1964 _____ 5 (t)

    dmillz25 ______________1322 ____ 1 __________ 642 ______ 7 ________1964 _____ 5 (t)

    hudsonvalley21_________1300 ____ 1 __________658 ______10 ________1958 _____ 3

    Scotty Lightning ________1344 ____ 4 __________604 ______ 1 ________ 1948 _____ 2

    RodneyS _____________ 1312 ____ 1 __________ 627 _____ 4 t________ 1939 _____ 1

    RJay _________________1294 ____ -- _________ 630 ______ 5 ________ 1924 _____ 1

    jaxjagman ____________ 1342 ___ 3 __________ 545 ______ -- ________ 1887 _____ 1

    Roger Smith ___________1334 ___ 2 __________ 552 ______ -- ________ 1886 _____ --

    wxdude64 _____________1232 ___ -- __________ 627 ______ 4 t_______ 1859 _____ --

    Stebo _________________1279 ___ -- _________ 465 ______ -- ________ 1744 _____ --

    ___Normal ____________1130 ___ -- ___________530 ______ -- ________1660 _____ --

    so_whats_happening (2/3)_862 ___ -- __________365 _____ -- _________ 1227 _____ --

     

    Four Seasons total points to date

    ... listed in order of all nine total points ...

     

    FORECASTER ____ (original six) __ Points __ (western) __ Points __ (all nine) __ Points

     

    Don Sutherland.1 _____5, 4, 5 _____14 _____ 7, 4, 6 ____ 17 ____ 6, 4, 6 ___ 16

    wxallannj ___________2, 1, 10 ___ 13 ______ 1, 5, 1 _____ 7 ____ 2, 3, 10 ___15

    Scotty Lightning _____10, 0, 4 ____ 14 _____ 10, 6, 1 ___ 17 ____10, 0, 2 ____12

    BKViking ___________ 3, 0, 7 _____10 _____ 1, 7, 1 _____ 9 ____ 3, 2, 7 ____ 12

    ___ Consensus ____2, 1, 5 ____ 8 _____ 3, 4, 2 ____ 9 ___ 4, 1, 7 ___ 12

    Roger Smith _________1,10, 2 ___ 13 ______ 5, 0, 0_____ 5 ____ 4, 7, 0 _____11

    RodneyS ____________ 0, 7, 1 ____ 8 ______ 1,10, 4 ___ 15 ____ 0,10, 1 ____ 11

    hudsonvalley21 ______ 7, 1, 1 _____ 9 _____ 3, 2,10 ____ 15 ____ 7, 1, 3 ____ 11

    Tom _______________ 0, 5, 6 ____ 11 _____ 6, 1, 1 _____ 8 ____ 0, 5, 5 ____ 10

    wxdude64 __________ 4, 6, 0 _____10 _____ 0, 0, 4 _____ 4 _____1, 6, 0 ____ 7

    ___Normal __________ 7, 0, 0 _____ 7 _____ 6, 0, 0 _____ 6 _____7, 0, 0 ____ 7

    so_whats_happening __ 6. 0, 0 _____ 6 _____ 2, 3, 0 _____ 5 ____ 5, 0, 0 ____ 5

    dmillz25 _____________1, 0, 1 _____ 1 ______0, 1, 7 ____ 8 _____ 0, 0, 5 ____ 5

    RJay ________________1, 1, 0 _____ 2 _____ 0, 2, 5 ____ 7 _____ 1, 1, 1 ____ 3

    H2O_Town__WX ______0, 0, 0 _____ 0 _____ 5, 0, 0 ____ 5 _____ 1, 0, 0 ____ 1

    jaxjagman ___________ 0, 0, 3 _____ 3 _____ 0, 0, 0 ____ 0 _____ 0, 0, 1 ____ 1

     

    (only forecasters with any points are in table)

     

     


  13. Extreme Forecast Update -- August 2018

     

    Rjay (+3.0 all three) scores three for the eastern locations (DCA, NYC, both +2.9 and BOS +5.3).

    Roger Smith (+2.5, +3.5) scores two for ORD (+3.9) and SEA (+2.7).

    Don Sutherland (+0.1) scores one for DEN (-0.1) , Normal also gets a win. 

    For PHX (+0.4), wxdude64 (+0.8) and Normal have wins, RodneyS (-0.9) has a loss.

     

    updated annual standings

     

    Roger Smith __________13###-0 (can fall to 10-0 see below)

    RodneyS _____________ 7-3

    RJay ________________ 7-2

    __ Normal ____________ 6-5

    wxdude64 ____________ 5-0

    AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0

    Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* (can fall to 3-0 see below)

    DonSutherland1 ________4-1

    wxallannj _____________3-0

    Scotty Lightning (SD)____3-1

    so_whats_happening ___ 2-0

    hudsonvalley21 ________ 2-0

    Mercurial _____________ 1-0

    NRG Jeff ______________1-0

    Stebo ________________ 1-0

    BKViking ______________1-0

    H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1

    cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0

    Tom _________________ 0-1

    * no decision (Mar for IAH)

     

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    # wins excluding "a few Univ b n" will be withdrawn if a few Univ b n enters a third contest.


  14. Just for clarification, the contest rules state that storms that begin their life cycle in a given month then go on to count in that month regardless of when they begin the higher stages, but I always score both ways so people can compare. It has often happened in past contests that an Aug 30 or 31 storm becomes a hurricane in early September (all counting for August).

    As to the timing of the named storm portion, that has been based on EDT in the past contests, not UTC. That effectively means that 03z is the cutoff for this system (No. 6) to count in August. If it isn't a tropical storm by 03z, its further development goes into September. Classification as T.D. Six would not change the timing. 

    I can't see anyone being adversely affected by Florence hitting the books for August so I think we're all rooting for this -- most scores would gain about 2 or 3 points. 


  15. 12z GFS shows Jebi striking the central Honshu coast on Tuesday around 10-12z (late evening Japanese time) with central pressures remaining sub-920 mb. Looks very similar to Katrina on these maps.

    The current landfall zone is south of Osaka placing Nagoya and Chita in the forward sector but Osaka and Kyoto very close to the fast-moving eye as it swerves northeast. I've been advising travelling friends who at this point are booked into hotel in Kyoto 1st to 4th but main point being this could shift either way so at this point just as safe to be there as Tokyo or far western Honshu. The models have been fairly consistent for days although speeding up the landfall, with respect to central Honshu as the target.

    Could be a high impact storm for any of these large cities or even Tokyo especially if track shifts east at all. On this track looks like Tokyo would see cat-1 conditions while Nagoya and Chita could see as high as cat-4.

    You also have to wonder if a significant earthquake would be imminent given these approaching tidal stresses. 


  16. --- -- <<<<==== Annual Updated Scoring Jan - Aug 2018 ====>>>> -- ----

     

      Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) 

    ... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red)

    ... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals.

    ... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown.

    ... May (none in July) best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked*

    ... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five  three months including May by end of year (did not in June, did in July, not in Aug).

    ... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months)

    ... same protocol will be applied to any high scores of Mercurial, JAN high scores c/e and all nine, and four other added regular forecaster high scores marked ^

    ... ... but H2O (one ATL Jan) was tied already so no high score added (dmillz25 had same score marked as high score already).

    ... in the western contest, Cerakoter1984 had high score for PHX in April, regular forecaster RodneyS adds one there (marked #)

    ... same thing entirely for NRGJeff's high score PHX in January (Rodney S adds another, so the # denotes 2 added now)

    ... note the cut-off for this will be three months entered, meaning H20_Town_WX, mappy, Orangeburgwx retain sole possession of their high scores. 

    ... if any of the 2-forecast people mentioned above enter again, the regular forecaster add-ons will be withdrawn. 

     

     FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores

     

    Roger Smith ________536 _556 _528 ___1620 ____ 438 _526 _360 ____1324 ___ 2944 __2*3*2 13*1 .2.1 __ MAY

    DonSutherland.1 ___  472 _464 _474 ____1410 ____ 383 _522 _425 ____1330 ___ 2740 ___ 000 220 .0.1 

    wxallannj __________ 456 _484 _496 ____1436 ____ 396 _432 _473 ____1301 ___ 2737 ___ 001 001 .0.0 

    hudsonvalley21 _____ 437 _444 _440 ____1321 ____ 371 _481 _541 ___ 1393___ 2714 ___ 000 001 .0.1

    jaxjagman _________ 458 _428 _464 ____1350 ____ 395 _486 _465 ____1346 ___ 2696 ___ 001 000 .0.1

    ___Consensus ______ 441 _445 _478 ____1364 ____ 391_478 _451 ____1320 ___ 2684 ___ 000 100 .0.0

    BKViking ___________435 _477 _492 ____1404 ____ 353 _467 _457 ____1277 ___ 2681 ___ 001 000 .0.1

    wxdude64 _________ 481 _462 _428 ____1371 ____ 368 _464 _437 ____1269 ___ 2640 ___24^0 002 .2.0

    Scotty Lightning (SD) _467 _461 _466 ___ 1394 ____ 393 _441 _411 ____1245 ___ 2639 ___2^11 102 .2^.1 _ JAN^

    RJay ______________408 _446 _459 ____1313 ____ 315 _470 _477 ____1262 ___ 2575 ___ 122 001 .2.1 __ APR, AUG

    Tom ______________ 417 _445 _471 ____1333 ____ 353 _481 _407 ____1241 ___ 2574 ___ 001 000 .0.0 __ JUN

    Stebo _____________ 389 _396 _436 ____1221 ____ 405 _466 _452 ____1323 ___ 2544 ___ 000 111 .0.1

    RodneyS ___________416 _448 _440 ____1304 ____ 375 _420 _430 ____1225 ___ 2529 ___ 210 200 .0.3 _ MAR, JUL

    ___Normal _________438 _433 _429 ____1300 ____ 372 _453 _327 ____1152 ___ 2452 ___ 001 111 .0.0 __ JAN^

    dmillz25 ___________ 386 _375 _393 ____1154 ____ 358 _460 _466 ____1284 ___ 2438 ___ 000 011 .0.0

    so_whats_happening*_327 _375_398 ____1100 ____ 360 _423 _400 ____1183 ___ 2283 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB

    mappy (5/8) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0

    Orangeburgwx _(5/8)_179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0

    afewUniverses bn (2)_114 _122 _144 ____ 380 ____ 139 _108 _180 ____ 427 ____ 807 ___ 110 011 .0.0

    Mercurial (2/8) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN

    H2O_Town_WX (3/8)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0

    H2O ___(2/8) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0

    nrgJeff _ (2/8) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___

    buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___

    Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ 

    tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___

    CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___

    _________ (1 mo F) _^^

    note: * so_whats_happening missed July

    all shown (2/7) missed March to August, Orangeburgwx (5/8) missed January, July, August.

     ... mappy (5/8) missed June to Aug, and H2OTown_wx (3/8) missed April to August.

      

     Part Two: Western and All Nine contests

     ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals

     for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring

     

     FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank)


    Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 448 _ 592 _ 498 ____ 1538 __________1 1 2 __ Apr, Aug __ 4177 (= 2)

    BKViking _______________374 _ 568 _ 502 ____ 1444 __________ 0 1 1 ____________ 4125 (= 4) __ JUN

    DonSutherland.1 ________ 448 _ 540 _ 443 _____1431 __________2^1 1 __ Jan _______4171 (= 3) _ JAN^

    RodneyS_______________ 464 _ 558 _ 401 ____ 1423 __________ 1 3#1 __May ______ 3952 (= 8) _ MAR, APR, JUL

    hudsonvalley21 _________ 432 _ 503 _ 475 _____1410 __________ 0 1 1 __ Jul _______4124 (= 5)

    __ Consensus __________ 400 _ 554 _ 432 _____1386 __________ 0 1 0 _____________4070 (= 7)

    wxallannj ______________ 420 _ 564 _ 383 _____1367 __________1 1 0 __ Mar _______4104 (= 6)

    Tom __________________ 425 _ 516 _ 396 _____1337 __________ 1 0 0 _____________3911 (=10) 

    RJay __________________397 _ 476 _ 462 _____1335 __________ 2 1 0 _____________3910 (=11)

    Roger Smith ____________356 _ 518 _ 448 _____1322 __________ 2 0 1 __ Jan _______4266 (= 1) __ MAY

    wxdude64 _____________ 432 _ 483 _ 407 _____1322 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 3962 (= 7)

     

    __Normal ______________412 _ 480 _ 418 _____1310 __________ 2 1 1 _____________ 3762 (=12) __ FEB

     

    dmillz25 _______________ 336 _ 527 _ 435 _____1298 __________ 0 1 0 __ Jun _______ 3736 (=12)

    jaxjagman _____________ 332 _ 468 _ 434 _____1234 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3930 (= 9)

    so_whats_happening* ____313 _ 445 _ 379 _____1137 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3420 (=14) __ FEB

    Stebo _________________ 266 _ 479 _ 250 _____ 995 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3539 (=13)

    Orangeburgwx (5/8)______251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb _______ 2090 (=15)

    mappy (5/8) ____________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 1722 (=16)

    H2OTown__WX (3/8) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=20)

    afewUniv bn (2 mo May,Jul)132 _ 172 _ 024 _____ 328 __________ 1 0 0 _____________ 1135 (=17)

    Mercurial __ (2/8) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=18) __ JAN

    nrgJeff ____ _(2/8) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21)

    H2O ____ (2/8) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19)

    cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr)_ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22)

    tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24)

    buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23)

    CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25)

     __________________________________________________________________________________________________

      

    Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - August _) 

     

    REGION _________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL

    New York City _____ 1687 ____ 1566 ____ 1701 _____ 4954

    Mid-Atlantic _______ 1704 ____ 1612 ____ 1545 _____ 4861

    Central + Western __1774 ____ 1463 ____ 1368 _____ 4605

    Philadelphia _______ 1641 ____ 1377 ____ 1574 _____ 4592

    __ Consensus _____ 1364 ____ 1320 ____ 1386 _____ 4070

    Tenn Valley _______ 1398 ____ 1346 ____ 1244 _____ 3988

    __ Normal ________ 1300 _____1152 ____ 1310 _____ 3762

    Great Lakes Oh Val _ 1221 ____ 1323 _____ 995 _____ 3539

     


  17. I'm wondering how many Augusts have performed worse than this one at 2/0/0 which looks rather likely to be the final count. 

    You might have to go back to those low count years around 1910. 

    If 2/0/0 holds up, then these will be the scores (and they are generally not a pretty sight) out of 12 possible points. Updates also through June, July and August combined.

    2 1 0 __ 11.0 __ hlcater (new total Jun-Jul-Aug 17.5)

    3 1 1 ___ 9.0 __ snowlover 2 (JJA 17.5), UIWWildthing (JJA 15.5) 

    3 2 1 ___ 7.0 __ Yoda (JJA 16.0), crownweather (JJA 15.5), NCforecaster89 (JJA 15.5), ncskywarn (JJA 15.0),

    _ _ _ ___________ afewUniv b n (JJA 15.0), NHC mid-range (JJA 15.0), jburns (JJA 14.5), Stebo (JJA 12.5).

    4 2 0 ___ 6.0 __ pcbjr (JJA 15.5), SRRTA22 (JJA 13.5)

    3.7/2.2/1_5.2 __ Contest mean (JJA 13.1)

    4 2 1 ___ 5.0 __ cobalt (JJA 14.0), blunder storm (JJA 14.0), contest normal (JJA 12.5), consensus, (JJA 12.5),

    _ _ _ ___________ NorthArlington101 (JJA12.0), jbamafanwx (JJA 12.0), jackstraw (JJA 11.5)

    4 2 2 ___ 3.0 __ Rtd208 (JJA 10.5)

    5 2 0 ___ 3.0 __ OSUmetstud (JJA 10.5)

    3 3 2 ___ 2.0 __ jaxjagman (JJA 9.5)

    4 3 1 ___ 1.0 __ RJay (JJA 8.5), mryanwilkes (JJA 5.5)

    4 3 2 ___ 0.0 __ Roger Smith (JJA 7.0)

    7 5 2 ___ 0.0 __ Orangeburgwx (JJA 7.5)

     

    These scores will be adjusted if any further tropical storm activity occurs in August, or confirmed around September 1st if not. 


  18. One plausible outcome is that the storm, always slowly weakening, never makes landfall (as defined by center crossing a coastline) anywhere populated, and drifts south of Kauai by Sunday to west of Kauai by Monday as a tropical storm. This is the GGEM solution and it makes some sense given the position and intensity of the northeast Pacific high. 

    That would not rule out cat-1 wind gusts over some central and western portions of the state. I would still say though a 30-40 per cent chance of a hurricane landfall and that most likely to be in Oahu or possibly western Maui. 

    But I think the rainfall will be the only major problem and it could be a rather complex pattern given the slow-moving nature of Lane, the rotating bands of moisture, and topography. 


  19. Final scoring for August 2018

     

    FORECASTER __region___ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS

     

    wxallannj ______NYC_____ 78 _ 90 _ 54 __ 222__ 40 _ 84 _ 92__ 216 __438 __ 72 _ 70 _ 58 __ 200 _____ 638

    DonSutherland.1 __NYC___ 62 _ 72 _ 32 __ 166__ 32_100_ 92__ 224 __ 390 __ 96_ 74 _ 58 __ 228 _____ 618

    Roger Smith ____C+W____ 82 _ 82 _ 40 __ 204__ 72_ 76 _ 74__ 222 __ 426 __ 38 _ 68 _ 84 __ 190 _____ 616

    so_whats_happening _PA__ 76 _ 80 _ 44 __ 200__ 58 _ 82 _ 86__226 __ 426 __ 56 _ 62 _ 68 __ 186 _____ 612

    RJay ___________NYC____ 989860__ 256__ 42 _ 66 _ 74__ 182 __ 438 __ 38 _ 68 _ 66 __ 172 _____ 610

    Tom __________PHL______72 _ 74 _ 26 __ 172__ 48 _ 84 _ 88__ 220 __ 392 __ 68 _ 78 _ 64 __ 210 _____ 602

    __ Consensus ___ _ _ ____ 76 _ 78 _ 40 __ 194__ 44 _ 82 _ 86__ 212 __ 406 __ 60 _ 78 _ 58 __ 196 _____ 602

    RodneyS _______MA______62 _ 76 _ 58 __ 196__ 66 _ 68 _ 84__ 218 __ 414 __ 64 _ 74 _ 44 __ 182 _____ 596

    dmillz25 ___ (-2%)_NYC___71*_90** 39*__200__ 12 _84** 94**_190 __ 390 __ 59*_76** 67*_ 202 _____ 592

    hudsonvalley21 __NYC____ 74 _ 86 _ 36 __ 196__ 44 _ 74 _ 86__ 204 __ 400 __ 60 _ 82 _ 44 __ 186 _____ 586

    Scotty Lightning ___PHL___ 62 _ 62 _ 10 __ 134__ 32 _ 86 _ 94__ 212 __ 346 __ 88 _ 88 _ 56 __232 _____ 578

    Stebo ________GL/OV____ 92 _ 82 _ 30 __ 204__ 62 _ 76 _ 88__ 226 __ 430 __ 38 _ 88 _ 16 __ 142 _____ 572

    BKViking _______NYC_____86 _ 82 _ 40 __ 208__ 38 _ 82 _ 86__ 206 __ 414 __ 32 _ 72 _ 50 __ 154 _____ 568

    jaxjagman ______TNV____ 82 _ 76 _ 38 __ 196__ 44 _ 68 _ 82__ 194 __ 390 __ 40 _ 78 _ 54 __ 172 _____ 562

    __ Normal ______________ 42 _ 42 _ 00 __ 084__ 22 _ 94_ 86__ 202 __ 286 __ 9892 _ 46 __ 236 _____ 522

    wxdude64 ___ (-1%) _MA__59*_ 51*_00 __110__ 20 _ 75*_87*__182 __ 292 __ 69*_ 91*_67*__227 _____ 519

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________

    * note: late penalties are small enough that they are shown in raw score line, * for each point deducted.

    High scores with color codes are also extreme forecast winners (the color tells which type of extreme prevailed).

    High scores in bold black type are not extreme forecast winners. Also subtotal maximum scores are shown in bold black.

    So far, DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, DEN and SEA appear likely to be extreme forecast wins (RJay 3 for east, Roger Smith 2 for ORD and SEA, all those being warmest forecasts,

    ... Don Sutherland 1 for coldest forecast at DEN, Normal also gets that one if the outcome is 0.0 or negative. Extreme forecast annual updated scoring table to be added later.

    Normal has high score for ATL so a forecaster with a lower score has high score indicated. There are quite a few ties for high score at IAH but at least some of those will drop out if the value changes. 

     

    Regional Rumble scoring for August 2018

     

    Region __________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL

     

    NYC _____________ 256 _____ 224 _____ 228 _______ 708

    M A ______________196 _____ 218 _____ 227 _______ 641

    PHL _____________ 172 _____ 220 _____ 232 _______ 624

    C + W ___________ 204 _____ 222 _____ 190 _______ 616

    PA / NY __________ 200 _____ 226 _____ 186 _______ 612

    __ Consensus ______194 _____ 212 _____ 196 _______ 602

    GL/OV ___________ 204 _____ 226 _____ 142 _______ 572

    TNV _____________ 196 _____ 194 _____ 172 _______ 562

    __ Normal _________ 84 _____ 202 _____ 236 _______ 522


  20. Had some time today to update anomalies and projections:

    _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD_ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

    _____ (11d) ____+3.2 _+4.1 _+7.2 __ +4.8 _+0.1 _--1.0 ___ --0.5 _+1.7 _+4.3

    _____ (16d) ____+2.9 _+3.4 _+5.9 __ +4.9 _+0.4 _--0.6 ___ --0.4 _+0.4 _+4.0

    _____ (23d) ____+2.4 _+2.1 _+4.4 __ +3.8 _+0.2 _+0.6 ___ --1.5 _+0.8 _+3.8

     

    ____ (p23d) ____+2.0 _+2.3 _+4.0 __ +3.5 __0.0 __0.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+4.2

     

    ____ (p31d) ____+3.0 _+3.0 _+4.5 __ +4.0 __0.0 _+1.5 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _+3.0

    ____ final anom _+2.9_+2.9_+5.3 __+3.9_+0.3_+0.7 __--0.1_+0.4_+2.7

     

    and there have been no new seasonal max values anywhere this month, BOS tied their earlier max of 98 on Aug 29th.

     

    (17th) _ Anyone hoping to make a move on your leader will have to overcome the ongoing SEA factor this month, which may wash away the other deficiencies, we shall find out later. Will post provisional scoring around the 24th this month when we are closing in on reliable estimates.

    (24th) _ Have updated through 23 days as the forecasts for later in the month in east and also around IAH seem to have torched considerably, and the p31d values generated on 17th are probably a bit low there. The p23d average error was a very good 0.52 deg considering that DEN was rather off the mark by 2 deg. ... As the new projections were largely based on NWS forecasts (30th and 31st from GFS/ECM blend) I felt more confident about generating provisional scoring today, see next post for those scores. When I updated today I checked these provisionals and any error in them will likely just drop all scores slightly so would have no impact on the contest (depending on how hot it actually gets in the east, but sometimes a thunderstorm can make an impact in the downward direction during heat waves). Will be adding the annual updates fairly soon. We also have some seasonal scoring, many of the totals are very close and points could change so I'll leave that for the final scoring phase. 

    (31st into 1st Sept) _ Confirmed anomalies are now posted. The values currently in the p31d line were posted on 25th.  

×