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Roger Smith

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Posts posted by Roger Smith


  1. There isn't really a big range in the forecasts, and having the large dump at MLI, PIA and ORD already tends to even out the range of further forecast amounts. Looking at yours, you just went a bit lower at a lot of the locations and yet all three of your tiebreakers are above the averages too. The only real outlier forecasts I can see from anyone would be the higher and lower ends for CLE so there's a question mark placed over the lake effect potential there, I suppose some might be thinking it will be so cold that Lake Erie will freeze early and limit CLE that way, others may be thinking it will be so cold there will be a lot of snow from Lake Huron getting all the way across anyway. Some may have reasoned that while cold, the flow will be WSW which keeps squalls away from CLE (but limits them for YXU and GRR also). 

    The contest may be won or lost with the CLE forecast since it has such a wider range than many of the others. 

    This Tillsonburg site may not be a perfect match for YXU, they seemed to avoid one snow squall event in November that I'm sure gave 5-10 cms at YXU. But their long term averages are only marginally smaller. 


  2. 7 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

    @Roger SmithThat will be interesting to keep track of this winter. Not sure I want to know how much time you invested in it though. Must have been a slow weekend. :) 

    Took a while but done in a few separate intervals of an hour or so, just started into it and kept going for some amusement, the weather here is cold but no snow so not much inviting me out of the house. Can't golf and yard work all done, had some football on TV so almost like drone work, have been checking it carefully though as I don't want to find mistakes later. Now finished final check where I fixed up a few minor errors. I am becoming more aware of the power of group thinking in these contests (involved in quite a few elsewhere too) and how well group consensus often does -- it could be an untapped resource for long range forecasting. This winter could prove to be an exception to that idea however. 

    • Like 2

  3. Hey, I thought it might be fun to have an interactive table of forecasts where I can move the "actual" portion through the table close to the leading forecasts. This is how it looks now with RIC at 11.5" from this storm. The SBY or LYH tiebreakers will also appear in the table. I will set them at 5" total for season (each) for now then adjust when this storm is finished. Would expect LYH to be higher than SBY after today. (edit 10th -- LYH reporting 11.5", SBY about 2" to be confirmed). 

    You'll see your forecast in its appropriate place with DCA snowfall used to position all entries regardless of amounts of other locations. Not sure why DCA for anchoring the table but if somebody wants to see it anchored by a different location, it would take a few edits. Tied forecasts at DCA appear in their chronological order of posting. Let me know if you spot any errors, I constructed this going backwards through the thread to catch later revisions first. 

    The scale is somewhat exponential to cover the range of forecasts best. The higher forecasts are not as widely separated by spacing as most of the others.

    Color coding is used for the five locations. Key: DCA, IAD, BWI, RIC, tie (SBY) tie* (LYH) __ 3 tiebreakers used LYH, they have the * with their numbers.

    These station codes do not appear in the table, the numbers are your forecasts. The tiebreakers are all orange but the few that are LYH have the asterisks. 

    Numbers are placed in the table as close to correct positions as possible, when two or more station forecasts are similar. Sometimes they will not be exactly aligned when close together.

    Then reality intrudes on this with bold versions of the above. For now, only one tiebreak amount is showing, until I can separate actual amounts for SBY and LYH. (have now shown both of them).

    A date is shown for the posting of the last forecast, in each case that was in November 2018. In some cases there may have been a later edit, I am going by posting dates in the thread but in only one case has the poster dated their edit, so not every date shown corresponds to a posting date (exceptions where shown by ^ and second number is original posting date of a later edited post). In one case (clskinsfan whose post was on the first, mentions an edit on the 20th), I went by a comment posted at a later date. (this is not important to the contest anyway, just FYI). The only other known to me edit date was my own forecast originally posted 1st, edited 26th. I expect there were other similar edits made but they won't appear in this table unless you want them to appear.

    The consensus values in the table are median values, the 30th ranked out of 59. For consensus, with 55 selections of SBY, median is 28th ranked, and for the three selecting LYH, it is the middle of the three values. 

    This table will be edited from time to time (for actual to date snowfalls), and perhaps moved forward in the thread or given a reference post. When or if we get past some of the lower clusters of numbers, we can move the snow to date into the heart of the table and perhaps increase the type size for readability. In any case, enjoy this addition! (some stats are compiled at bottom end of the table).

     

    Forecaster _____Nov date __ 0" __ 2" __ 4" __ 6" __ 8" __10" __12"__14"__16"__18"_20"_22"_24"_26"_28"_30"_32"_34"_36".38".40"...45"...50"..60"..70"..80"

    _ Snow to date __ 9 Dec __ 1.41.7 2.03.0__________ (11.5)*11.5

    George BM ________ 15 _____ 1.41.7 3.0___________________________________________________________________________42.7___ 50.2

    EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 __________________ 6.5_7.8_8.710.911.1

    Bristow Wx _________ 1 ___________________ 6.7_7.4_8.7 ____ 12.6 13.8

    supernovasky _______ 9 __________________________9.0__11.0 12.0___________ 19.020.0

    leesburg 04 _________1 _______________________________11.0 12.0 ______ 17.0_____ 22.023.0

    RodneyS __________ 21 ___________________________ 10.5 _13.3 13.9 __________ 20.3 __23.6

    MN Transplant _____ 28 _________________5.4 __ 7.8 ___________ 14.2 ____ 17.8_19.6

    Wonderdog ________ 9 ________________________________ 12.75 ____ 16.0 ____ 20.0 ________ 27.0 ____ 33.0

    nw Baltimore wx ___ 10 _______________________ 8.0 _______ 13.0 ____16.0 _________ 22.0_ 25.0

    Bob Chill __________ 27 ________________________________ 12.0_14.0_16.0 _______________ 26.0 29.0

    Weather53 _________21 ______________________________________14.7_16.516.8____21.2_22.1

    Stormpc ___________26 ___________________________________________16.716.817.2_19.924.6

    Gramax Refugee ____27 _______________________________________15.2_16.9 17.2 ________________ 29.5_32.0

    Olafminesaw _______25 ________________________ 8.79.8 ____________ 17.3 __19.4 ____ 23.5

    Prince Frederick Wx _ 1 ______________________________________ 14.3_17.117.7 __________24.5 27.8

    Gopper ___________ 15 ____________________________ 9.9________ 15.5 _ 17.7 __________________28.8 ___ 33.3

    biodhokie __________ 8 ______________________________________ 14.5 ___17.8 18.1__21.3__________ 30.2

    WinterWxLuvr ______ 8 _______________________________ 11.0 _ 13.0 _____18.0 _______ 23.0_________ 32.0

    Thanatos_I_Am ____ 30 ___________ 3.2 _______ 7.5 _____________________ 18.3 ___________25.8 27.6

    Grothar of Herndon _ 30 _______________________________________14.4 ____18.3 19.2 ______ 25.7 __ 29.1

    Chris78 ____________ 1 ____________________________________12.4 14.9 ___ 18.4 ___________26.7_28.6

    dmillz25 ____________1 _____________________________ 10.0 11.0 __________ 19.0 _________25.0 __ 29.0

    LP08 ______________ 5 ______________________________________13.314.6 ___ 19.7 _____________________ 34.4_______ 42.6

    MillvilleWx __________1 _________________________ 8.7 _____________15.0 _______21.1 _________27.4_29.5

    North Balti Zen ______ 5 ______________________________________14.0 _____ 19.6_21.1 _________ 28.8 ________35.7

    mattie g __________ 28 _____________________________10.4 _____13.9 __________ 21.1 ____________ 30.6 ___________38.7

    WxWatcher007 _____30 _____________________________10.6 ___________16.4 ____ 21.1 _________ 28.9 ____32.5

    Yoda _____________ 27 ________________________ 8.4___________ 14.1 ___________21.8 _________29.6 ___ 32.9

    cae ______________ 30 ________________________________11.7_12.7 _____________ 21.8 _______27.6 ___ 31.3

    WxUSAF ___________ 5 ____________________________________________16.6 ____21.1 22.7 _____________31.5 35.2

     

    ___ Consensus ____ median ____________________________________Sby14.4 _17.0 ____ 22.7 _____Lyh 30.1*_30.635.0

     

    NorthArlington101 ___ 1 __________________________ 9.1 ______________16.0 _________22.8 __25.7 _____ 32.2

    T. August _________ 21 ___________________________________________________19.1__22.9 ____ 27.5_29.2 _______ 36.0

    Prestige Worldwide __27 __________________________________12.4 ____15.8 __________ 23.0 ___________31.0 ____ 35.0

    BTRwx'sThanksGiving_12 _________________________________12.0 _______17.0 __________ 24.0 _____________34.0 ___ 38.0

    Shadowzone _______ 14 ___________________________________________ 16.8 ____ 20.3*__ 24.1 _________31.7 ____ 35.7

    HighStakes _________ 6 _________________________________________________18.7 20.0 ___24.5 __________________ 37.4 _41.1

    Sparky ____________ 2 ________________________________________ 14.015.0_____________ 25.0 ___________34.0 _____ 39.0

    mappy ____________ 5 __________________________________________________ 19.0 22.0_ 25.0 ________32.0 __ 35.0

    OnceinaLifetime2009_28 _______________________________11.1 _________________19.9 _______ 26.7 __ 30.1 ________________44.5

    Cobalt ____________30 __________________________________12.1 _______16.8 _______________ 26.9 ______ 33.2 _______39.4

    weatherCCB _______ 16 ___________________________________________________19.5 __23.0 ____ 27.4 ______________________ 46.8_49.6

    clskinsfan _________ 20 ^ 1 ______________________________________ 15.518.5 ______________27.5 _____________ 36.5 37.5

    psuhoffman ________ 1 ___________________________________________________19.0 20.0 _______ 28.0 _______________37.0 39.0

    nj2va ____________ 1 __________________________________ 11.5 ____________ 18.9 _____________ 29.2 _____________________ 48.7 _______ 59.9

    Roger Smith ______ 26 ^ 1 _________________________________________ 16.5 _______ 21.0 _______ 29.2 ___________42.5 43.8

    snowgolfbro _______ 10 ________________________________________ 14.5 __ 18.0 _________________ 30.0 ____________________ 47.0 _52.0

    ravensrule _________12 __________________________________________15.0_17.0 __________________ 30.0 ____________38.0_40.0

    C. A. P. E. _________ 1 _____________________________________________________ 20.1 ___24.5 ______30.3 ______ 35.838.5

    budice2002  _______ 14 ______________________________________________________________ 26.0  29.0 31.0 _____________ 42.0_46.0

    southMDwatcher ___ 20 _________________________________11.4 ________________ 20.7 ______________ 31.1 ______________ 43.8_47.9

    tplbge ___________ 16 ______________________________________________17.0 ___________________ 29.0 ____34.0 ______________49.0 _53.0

    showmethesnow ___ 27 ______________________________________________17.0 _______ 24.0 _______________ 34.0 ______________ 50.0 _54.0

    JakkelWx _________ 30 _________________________________________________________ 24.0 ____27.0 __________35.0 ___40.0_42.0

    GATECH __________ 1 _______________________________________14.214.3 ___________________________________ 35.7 _______44.9_47.5

    SnowLuvrDude _____30 ______________________________________________________21.724.2 ____________________ 37.1 ______ 48.6_52.4

    wxdude64 ________ 13 ________________________________________________________________ 26.1 __30.1*__________ 38.4 ______________55.8 57.4

    AFewUnivBelowN ___ 1 __________________________________________ n/a ______________________28.0 _______________ 40.0 _____________ 56.0 __________ 65.0

    RIC Airport ________ 1 ________________________________________________________________________ 32.2 _________________46.0 __________ 57.8*_ 61.9 62.5

    osfan24 ___________ 7 _____________________________________________________ 21.2 ______________ 31.3 _________________ 46.2 _____54.3_55.9

    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     

    Some stats of interest:

    27 of 59 forecasts have this order of snowfalls from least to greatest _ (tiebreak) _ RIC _ DCA _ BWI _ IAD

    ___ RodneyS, MN Transplant, Bob Chill, Olafminesaw, Prince Frederick Wx, Gopper, Chris78, Millville Wx, North Balti Zen, mattie g, WxWatcher007, Yoda, cae, WxUSAF, North Arlington 101, Prestige Worldwide, BTRwx's Thanks Giving, High Stakes, Onceinalifetime2009, Cobalt, weather CCB, nj2va, snowgolfbro, southMDwatcher, showmethesnow, GATECH, osfan24.

     6 of 59 forecasts have this order of snowfalls _ (tiebreak) _ RIC _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI

    ___ Thanatos_I_Am, dmillz25, clskinsfan, psuhoffman, Roger Smith, tplbge

    ... in addition, one more is the same as the above with no tiebreaker __ AfewUnivbelowN 

    11 of 59 forecasts have this order of snowfalls _ RIC _ (tiebreak) _ DCA _ BWI _ IAD

    ___ nw Baltimore wx, WinterWxLuvr, LP08, shadowzone* Sparky, mappy, ravensrule, budice2002, JakkelWx, SnowLuvrDude, wxdude64*

     1 of 59 forecasts have this order of snowfalls _ RIC _ (tiebreak) _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI __ C.A.P.E.

     

     2 forecasts go in the order of RIC _ DCA _ (tiebreak) _ IAD _ BWI __ supernovasky, RIC Airport*

     2 forecasts go in the order of DCA _ (tiebreak) _ RIC _ BWI _ IAD __ East coast NPZ, stormPC

     3 forecasts go in the order of (tiebreak) _ DCA _ RIC _ BWI _ IAD __ Gramax Refugee, Grothar of Herndon, Wonderdog

     1 forecast goes in the order of DCA _ (tiebreak) _ RIC _ IAD _ BWI __ Bristow Wx

     1 forecast goes in the order of DCA _ BWI _ IAD _ RIC _ (tiebreak) __ George BM

     1 forecast goes in the order of (tiebreak) _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC _ BWI __ T. August

     2 forecasts go in the order of RIC _ DCA _ (tiebreak) _ BWI _ IAD __ leesburg 04, Weather53

     1 forecast goes in the order of RIC _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ (tiebreak) __ biodhokie

    * 3 forecasters who selected LYH as their tiebreakers

     

    __________________________________________________________________

    Leaving out the tiebreaker, the clusters are as follows:

    RIC _ DCA _ BWI _ IAD ___ 40

    RIC _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI ____11

    DCA _ RIC _ BWI _ IAD ____ 5

    DCA _ RIC _ IAD _ BWI ____ 1

    DCA _ IAD _ RIC _ BWI ____ 1

    DCA _ BWI _ IAD _ RIC ____ 1

    ___________________________________________________________________

    RIC was therefore placed higher than DCA 8 times, higher than IAD 2 times and higher than BWI once.

    DCA was never placed higher than IAD or BWI by any forecaster.

    BWI was placed higher than DCA by 13 of 59 forecasters.

    The tiebreaker when SBY was placed lowest by 36 of 55, LYH was not placed lowest by any of 3.

    The tiebreaker when SBY was placed second lowest above only RIC by 12 of 55 and by two choosing LYH.

    The tiebreaker when SBY was placed second lowest above only DCA by 3 of 55.

    The tiebreaker when SBY was placed higher than both DCA and RIC by 2 of 55 and by one choosing LYH.

    The tiebreaker when SBY was placed higher than all four contest locations by 2 of 55. 

    ____________________________________________________________________

     

    No forecaster predicted the same amount of snow at any of their five locations (several were 0.1" different).

    _____________________________________________________________________

    The IAD to DCA ratio averaged close to 2:1 in the lower half of the forecasts and narrowed to about 1.5:1 in the heavier snowfall forecasts.

    The smallest IAD to DCA ratio in the contest is 18.1:17.8 (about 1.016:1) from biodhokie. 

    ______________________________________________________________________

    Hope you enjoy using this table to track the ever-mounting snow totals (in February, let's say). :)

     

    • Like 1

  4. Just reading the comments about any similar cutoff, I wonder if anyone there can either remember or look up what happened with a big snowstorm that hit southeast VA on Feb 29 to Mar 1 1980, I remember it was very heavy snowfalls around Norfolk area (15-20") but don't recall what happened further north. I was working in the Accu-weather office that winter on a business project and probably sitting next to JB when this storm happened (he got so excited even then). Maybe there was a similar cutoff with that storm as I don't think it snowed in State College PA. 


  5. A separate concern for heavy snow in south-central VA would be phase given that the uppers never become better than marginal, and the depth of cold air is not dramatic. I expect places like RIC could see enough precip for 10" snowfalls but how much will lie on the ground at any given time as snow? Maybe 2-4" ... somewhat higher regions further west might do better with their ratios. 

    If the storm does jog north and overspreads DCA to BWI then snow ratios should be better since the storm would have to tackle a colder air mass in place there. So the odds on all snow would be good if there's anything to be had at all. My current view is 30% chance measurable for DCA, 15% for IAD to BWI, 50-50 in southern suburbs. Best snowfall locations likely to be near NC-VA border west of Danville. 

    • Like 1

  6. First set of anomalies and forecasts ...

     

    ________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

     

    _8th ______ (7d) __________+0.3 _--1.3 _+0.2 ___--0.6 _+0.4 _+1.6 ___--4.0 _--0.6 _--1.2

     

    _ 8th ____ (p14d) _________ --1.5 _--3.0 _--2.0 ___--1.0 _--2.0 _--1.7 ___--1.0 _--1.8 _--1.5

     

    _ 8th ____ (p24d) _________ --1.0 _--2.0 _--1.5 ___--1.0 _--1.0 _--0.3 ____ 0.0 _--1.0 _--0.5

     

    ______________________________________________

    8th _ The month began quite warm in eastern and central regions, then turned colder. This cold trend is supposed to last a few more days, then go briefly milder, with another cold interval before the 20th and milder again towards Christmas. No large temperature swings are foreseen, most days expected to remain within 5 degrees of normal. The 16-day forecast is an extension of the 7-day NWS numbers using the GFS output for 8th to 16th. As many stations are converging on small final anomalies, the consensus score if Normal scores the max of 900 would be 756. Forecasts are scattered around that median to the extent that almost anybody could win the contest if they get top score in December. 


  7. Snowfalls to date

    -- this post will be updated whenever new snow is reported

    LOCATION ________ Oct __ Nov __ Dec (to date) ___ Contest total __ % Normal (full season)

    APN ______________ 0.2 __ 9.9 __ 2.1 ______________ 12.2 ________ 15

    ORD ______________ Tr __12.7 __ 0.3 ______________ 13.0 ________ 34

    CLE _______________0.0 __ 4.4 __ 1.7 _______________ 6.1 _________ 9

    CMH ______________0.0 __ 1.9 __ 0.6 _______________ 2.5 _________ 8

    DTW ______________ Tr __ 6.7 __ 0.1 _______________ 6.8 ________ 15

    FWA ______________0.0 __ 2.1 __ 0.1 _______________ 2.2 _________ 7

    GRR ______________ Tr __14.4 __ 1.9 ______________ 16.3 ________ 21

    GRB ______________ Tr __ 3.8 __ 3.0 _______________ 6.8 _________13

    IND ______________ Tr __ 0.4 __ 0.5 ________________0.9 _________ 3

    LSE ______________ 0.1 __ 1.9 __ 2.7 _______________ 4.7 _________10

    YXU ______________0.0 __ 3.2 __ 2.0* ______________ 5.2 _________ 4

    SDF ______________0.0 __ 0.5 __ Tr ________________ 0.5 _________ 4

    MQT _____________ 4.2 _ 37.7 _ 20.9 ______________ 62.8 _________31

    MKE ______________ Tr __ 6.6 __ 0.2 _______________ 6.8 _________14

    MSP ______________0.3 __ 4.0 __ 3.0 _______________ 7.3 _________15

    MLI ______________ 0.2 _ 18.4 __ 0.3 ______________ 18.9 _________56

    PAH ______________0.0 __ 2.3 __ Tr ________________ 2.3 _________25

    PIA _______________Tr __ 9.8 __ 0.4 _______________10.2 _________41

    STL ______________0.0 __ 5.2 __ 1.7 ________________6.9 _________38

    YYZ ______________1.0 __ 6.2 __ 0.8 ________________8.0 _________19

    ________

    TOTAL to date ___________________________________200.4 _______ 19.9 %

    _________________________________________________________

    * Tillsonburg (for YXU) updated to Dec 8, rest are Dec 10 mid-day (YYZ end of 6th)

    Canadian locations are converted to inches from cms. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     


  8. 2018-19 Snowfall forecast contest

    ... this will move along month by month, updated to Dec 7th ...

     

    FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

     

    Snowfall to date __________ 1.4 __ 6.4 __ 0.1 ___13.0 __ 6.8 __20.4 ___ 7.7 __ 0.0 __24.2

     

    RJay __________________33.0 _54.0 _ 70.0 __ 30.0 _ 38.0 _100.0___ 65.0 __ 6.0 _100.0

    DonSutherland.1 ________ 32.5 _ 50.0 _ 57.5 __ 48.5 _ 53.5 _110.0___ 52.0 __ 3.5 _ 93.0

    Tom __________________ 26.3 _ 56.4_ 65.6 __ 29.6 _ 41.6 _ 95.2 ___ 62.3 __ 1.9 _ 89.6

    wxallannj ______________ 25.0 _ 47.0 _ 52.0 __ 49.0 _ 51.0 _ 83.0 ___ 57.0 _ 13.0_ 77.0

    Scotty Lightning _________25.0 _ 42.0 _ 75.0__ 70.0_ 80.0_120.0___75.0 _ 10.0 _ 85.0

    BKViking _______________24.0 _ 55.0 _ 71.0 __ 35.0 _ 39.0 _ 78.0 ___ 60.0 _ 18.0 _ 78.0

     

    ___ Consensus _________ 24.0 _ 44.5 _ 60.9 __ 37.5 _ 44.7 _ 92.6 ___ 58.5 __ 6.4 _ 88.8

     

    dmillz25 _______________ 24.0 _ 53.0 _ 67.0 __ 40.0 _ 37.7 _ 85.0 ___ 57.0 __ 5.0 _ 90.0

    wxdude64 _____________ 22.9 _ 40.6 _ 59.7 __ 38.9 _ 45.9 _ 98.4 ___ 67.6 __ 6.7 _ 90.3

    hudsonvalley21 _________ 22.0 _ 40.0 _ 62.0 __ 36.0 _ 48.2 _101.5___ 51.0 __ 5.7 _ 88.0

    Roger Smith ____________18.0 _ 28.0 _ 45.0 __ 30.5 _ 35.5 _ 90.0 ___ 60.5 _ 10.0 _ 78.0

    Stebo _________________ 13.2 _ 34.3 _ 53.5 __ 33.5 _ 47.0 _ 87.0 ___ 37.0 _ 10.7 _ 97.0

    RodneyS _______________12.5 _ 25.0 _ 37.5 __ 41.0 _ 43.5 _ 89.0 ___ 52.5 __ 4.5 _ 73.0

    _____________________________________________________________________

    High forecasts in bold, low forecasts in italic. 

    Consensus is median, average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts. 

    Normal will be added later from NWS daily climate data snowfalls late in season. 

    ... watch for updates to season totals and this post will migrate to new months as we move along .


  9. Table of entries for snowfall contest 2018-19

    _________________________________________

    These forecasts are arranged in order of total snowfall 

     

    FORECASTER _________ APN_ORD_CLE_CMH_DTW__FWA_GRR_GRB_IND_LSE__YXU_SDF__MQT_MKE_MSP_MLI__PAH_PIA__STL_YYZ __ TOTAL

     

    dmc76 _______________77.0_45.8_82.4_38.9_58.4_47.8_82.0_55.6_28.8_40.6_104.4_17.7__189.0_54.0_47.7_27.0_21.0_22.0_25.0_63.2__1128.3

    Roger Smith __________ 90.5_35.0_80.0_27.0_45.0_30.0_90.0_70.0_27.0_55.0__87.0_10.5__200.5_45.5_66.0_39.0_12.0_30.0_14.5_55.0__1109.5

    DonSutherland.1 _______81.7_50.0_83.9_45.0_56.5_41.5_82.4_48.9_42.7_38.2_109.4_23.0__145.2_47.1_40.4_32.3_18.5_35.0_25.2_49.2__1096.1

    vpbob21 _____________ 76.4_44.1_49.5_34.7_43.2_33.2_65.9_47.0_31.4_38.8__70.1_24.6__216.0_44.7_53.1_45.1_16.9_36.3_26.6_52.0__1049.6

     

    ___ Contest normal ____ 80.4_38.1_67.2_28.4_44.8_34.0_77.1_54.2_25.9_46.1__75.7_13.9__199.8_49.2_50.6_33.5__9.2_24.9_18.4_42.5___1013.9

     

    madwx _______________84.5_45.4_66.1_27.3_52.1_36.1_75.1_49.8_26.2_41.3__65.1_14.2__181.2_42.3_48.3_40.7_11.4_26.3_16.2_51.3__1000.9

     

    ___ Contest median ____77.0_42.0_66.1_27.3_45.0_33.2_75.0_49.0_26.2_40.6__70.1_14.0__188.0_43.0_47.7_39.0_15.0_29.0_22.0_49.2___998.4*

     

    Mississauga Snow _____ 96.0_39.0_41.0_22.0_50.0_31.0_70.0_45.0_17.0_35.0__80.0_11.0__200.0_34.0_55.0_40.0_15.0_26.0_30.0_47.0___984.0

    cyclone77 ____________ 90.0_44.0_59.0_29.0_41.0_26.0_73.0_47.0_24.0_42.0__78.0__9.0__175.0_43.0_47.0_46.0_11.0_31.0_24.0_41.0___980.0

    Jackstraw ____________ 72.0_30.0_91.0_27.0_41.0_36.0_75.0_49.0_31.0_31.0__64.0_14.0__212.0_35.0_30.0_34.0_22.0_20.0_16.0_46.0___976.0

    slowpoke _____________72.0_42.0_57.0_29.0_38.0_30.0_68.0_49.0_25.0_42.0__66.0_12.0__188.0_47.0_47.0_40.0_12.0_29.0_22.0_48.0___963.0

    Stebo ________________65.0_35.0_83.0_22.0_48.0_37.0_77.0_45.0_25.0_35.0__60.0_18.0__185.0_40.0_35.0_31.0_18.0_20.0_20.0_50.0___949.0

    DAFF ________________75.0_37.0_50.0_26.0_39.0_30.0_73.0_51.0_20.0_45.0__65.0_12.0__172.0_41.0_48.0_38.0_14.0_29.0_17.0_37.0___919.0

    ______________________________________

    *contest median total is sum of twenty median forecasts, the median total is 984.0

    

    Tiebreakers (same order as table of entries)

     

    dmc76 ______________ Dec ORD 10.2" __ Jan IND 11.0" ___ Feb DTW 12.0"

    Roger Smith __________Dec ORD 13.5" __ Jan IND 10.0" ___ Feb DTW 12.5"

    DonSutherland.1 ______ Dec ORD 11.7" __ Jan IND 13.7" ___ Feb DTW 14.2"

    vpbob21 _____________ Dec ORD 3.6" ___Jan IND 9.4" ____ Feb DTW 13.1"

    madwx ______________ Dec ORD 9.2" ___ Jan IND 8.4" ____Feb DTW 18.3"

    Mississauga Snow ______ Dec ORD 4.1" ___ Jan IND 11.0"___ Feb DTW 16.0"

    cyclone77 ____________ Dec ORD 6.7" ___ Jan IND 9.6" ___ Feb DTW 13.4"

    Jackstraw ____________ Dec ORD 4.5" ___ Jan IND 12.0"___Feb DTW 10.5"

    slowpoke _____________ Dec ORD 6.0" ___ Jan IND 7.0" ___ Feb DTW 8.0"

    Stebo _______________ Dec ORD 6.7" ___ Jan IND 10.2" ___Feb DTW 15.2"

    DAFF________________ Dec ORD 10.7" ___Jan IND 13.8" ___Feb DTW 14.9"

    (mean of above entries) _________7.9" __________ 10.6" ___________ 13.5"

     


  10. That GGEM 72-84h pass looks like 8-12" in central VA to southeast MD, 3-5" DCA to s NJ and a sharp cutoff near MD-PA border. Let's hope that trend of sharp northern cutoffs moving north works with this one. Then it could be more like 8-12" everywhere and let PA worry about where 3-5" ends up. 

    • Confused 2

  11. Your chances for a direct hit are one in four perhaps, but 50-50 for 2-4" near the northern fringes of the snow. Those aren't bad odds for first third of December.

    Not a very easy set-up for models to resolve, one thing in favor of a storm would be warm SST values offshore, could force a last minute northeast jog and you'll catch at least some of this.

    Best bet at this point is 2-5" DCA, but range of possible amounts trace to 15" so lots to play for here. 


  12. I guess we have reached the deadline, will be making up some sort of table of entries soon. Would be inclined to accept any forecasts posted rest of Tuesday 4th before I get that project finished, but as soon as a table of entries appears, the contest is closed to participating entries though. Let's say midnight Tuesday CST will be the absolute deadline, it takes a few hours to get this into excel format and processed then transcribed to the website. 


  13. Just a subjective comment but I recall the autumn of 1967 producing weather like this November, quite cold with frequent light snowfalls (in southern Ontario), and the weather following that was very mild for a part of mid-December, think I remember something like high 50s just before Christmas then much colder again, and otherwise a rather cold winter (in the east anyway) with a memorable snow to ice storm in Toronto in mid-January (1968).  Not much recall of what may have happened elsewhere in that winter, there were long dry intervals in February where I was, almost daily sunshine, and another large snowfall around 12th of March, then a warm early spring developed. 

    • Thanks 1

  14.  

    __ Holiday greetings to all, considered no late penalty for RJay after considering his efforts to assist the contest and in view of positional advantage being nil with the forecasts supplied vs points needed  but will apply one for the integrity of the Regional Rumble __ check the up to date scoring report in the November contest thread to see how close the annual scoring races are, Regional Rumble is not quite a lock yet for NYC but looking at the range of their forecasts this month, can't really see how anyone catches them, short of one of the Mid-Atl dynamic duo having a perfect set of predictions. Even then, 190 points to catch up (PHL probably too far back now). The individual all-nine is probably still in contention for the top five or six at least. Scotty Lightning had a lead of 23 over myself and I was 18 ahead of wxallannj after November, BKV and DonS are lurking not far behind.

    __ in any case, will post a list of total scores without late penalties for all regular contestants after this month, to show how you compare with no late penalties applied __ I have not done that all year and will be interested to see it myself.

    __ I invite any of you to post any thoughts (or send by PM) about future of this contest, I am willing to continue what I have been doing, or I could step aside for a new host and then I would be willing to continue scoring while that new host does the meet and greet portion of the contest? up to you folks, I am somewhat disappointed that I cannot seem to increase the numbers even with the Rumble concept, and we've gradually lost quite a few regulars which may or may not be related to my being the host? Don't know, I wonder if perhaps my controversial methods or possibly storm busts in regional forums have an effect on contest support, although really one's decision to participate in a contest should be mostly about one's own desire to forecast plus whether or not the contest is well run -- I believe this one is well run, even if I am the flakiest dude on the planet in some other aspect of weather (or life). :) ... meanwhile, I do take part in organizing contests on forums in UK and Ireland and have not run into the same rates of contest field attrition or decay over recent years, so perhaps it's a problem related more to Am Wx and the fact that many members stay in their regional forums mostly? Whatever, we need bigger fields, or do we? If there are twelve very committed people it has its own merits. I think if it was down to just me and two other guys, then might be time to apply the DNR.

    :ee:

    Despite all of that, thanks for your continued support of the contests. We could make up quite a list of the departed though, and some regions have stopped appearing here altogether. I did try to offer regional forum portals for the contest, but only two people ever used those, anyone who heard about the contest through that regional announcement came over here to participate.

    (will be p.m.'ing these thoughts if I don't think they were spotted, as we need to make some decisions in December about 2019)

     

    Table of forecasts for December 2018

     

    FORECASTER ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

     

    Scotty Lightning ______________ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ --0.5 _+1.0 __ 0.0

    wxallannj ___________________ +1.5 _+0.4 _+0.4 __ +1.1 _+1.2 _+1.7 ___ +1.4 _+1.6 _+0.3

    hudsonvalley21 _______________+0.9 _+0.3 _--0.2 __ --1.2 _+0.7 _+0.4 ___ +0.6 _+1.8 _+1.4

    DonSutherland.1 ______________+0.5 _--0.6 _--1.0 __ --0.2 _+1.0 _+1.2 ___ +0.3 _+0.5 _+1.1

    ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

    RodneyS ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 _--0.6 __ +0.7 _--0.5 _+0.2 ___ +0.7 _+1.0 _+0.3

    BKViking ___________________ --0.4 _--0.6 _--0.8 __ --1.5 _--1.9 _--0.2 ___ --0.2 _+0.9 _+0.8

    Tom _______________________ --0.9 _--0.8 _--0.9 __ --1.9 _--1.5 _--0.2 ___ --0.6 _+0.5 _+0.8

     

    ___ Consensus ______________ --0.9 _--0.8 _--0.8 __ --0.9 _--1.3 _--0.2 ___ +0.3 _+1.0 _+1.0

     

    RJay ______ (-3%) ___________--1.0 _--1.0 _--1.0 __ --1.0 _--1.0 _--1.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0

    Roger Smith _________________--1.0 _--1.3 _--1.0 __ --0.9 _--1.3 _--0.2 ___ +2.5 _+2.0 _+2.8

    IntenseBlizzard2014 ___________--1.1 _--0.9 _--0.7 __ --0.9 _--1.5 _--0.5 ___ --0.4 _+0.7 _+0.6

    Stebo ______________________ --1.2 _--1.5 _--2.1 __ +0.8 _--2.5 _--1.2 ___ --1.0 _--1.5 _+1.2

    dmillz25 ____________________ --1.9 _--2.5 _--2.5 __ --2.0 _--2.5 _--1.2 ___ +1.0 _--1.0 _+1.5

    wxdude64 ___________________ --3.1 _--2.8 _--2.9 __ --2.7 _--1.4 _--0.4 ___ --2.1 _+1.1 _+1.9

    ____________________________________________________________________________

     

    Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal is tied coldest for SEA.

    Consensus is 7th ranked (median) of 13 forecasts.

    Welcome back to IntenseBlizzard2014, I think you've played one or two of these before.

    Good luck to all, and check the November thread to see how close the contests were at end of last month. 

     

     

     

     

    • Thanks 1

  15. Extreme forecast report 
     

    All six of these locations -- DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL, IAH, are wins for coldest forecasts.

    Normal has five of these shared with coldest forecast since that was either a small positive anomaly (DCA, NYC, BOS) or zero (ATL, IAH).

     

    Scotty Lightning shares wins at DCA, NYC and BOS (+1.0, +1.0, +0.5) vs -3.1, -3.3, and -1.8.

    Roger Smith shares wins at DCA and NYC.

    Stebo also shares a win for NYC.

    wxallannj has sole possession of ORD with a forecast of -0.8 (actual was -5.7).

    RodneyS has wins for ATL and IAH with forecasts of 0.0 (actuals -3.7, -3.6). 

    DEN ... At -0.5, this was a close call, but it failed to qualify (at -0.7 to -1.1 it would have been a win for Stebo (-0.8) and a shared loss for coldest forecasts RodneyS and dmillz25 (-1.5). As fourth coldest forecast is -0.5 (wxallannj), that is the high score and DEN fails to qualify.

    PHX ... Unlike the other seven, this one produced a loss and a win. The final value is -0.3, and Stebo has coldest forecast at -1.1. The second coldest forecast was -0.2 from Tom. This makes Tom a winner and Stebo gets a loss, (-0.7 would reverse the order ... Normal is not in contention for PHX unless it actually finishes closer to zero, as Normal shares the win for outcomes --0.1 to +0.4.) 

    SEA has finished at +3.1, a shared win for DonSutherland.1 and Roger Smith (+2.2) with warmest forecasts.

    ___________________________________________________________________

    updated annual standings

     

    Roger Smith __________17###-1 (can fall to 14-1 see below)

    RodneyS _____________12-3

    __ Normal ___________ 12-7

    RJay ________________10-2

    Scotty Lightning (SD)____9-1

    wxdude64 ____________ 6-4

    DonSutherland1 ________5-1

    hudsonvalley21 ________ 4-0

    AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0

    wxallannj _____________4-0

    Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* (can fall to 3-0 see below)

    so_whats_happening ___ 2-0

    Stebo ________________ 2-1

    Mercurial _____________ 1-0

    NRG Jeff ______________1-0

    BKViking ______________1-0

    cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0

    H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1

    Tom _________________ 1-1

    * no decision (Mar for IAH)

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    # wins excluding "a few Univ b n" will be withdrawn if a few Univ b n enters a third contest.


  16. Just to fill out the field to a reasonable size, I will extend the deadline for entries three days to the end of Monday, Dec 3rd (06z 4th will be the lock-up time).

    You can edit previous submissions to that deadline, no need to mention it as I don't copy anything until after that deadline has passed.

    I will maintain the log of actual snowfall in the entry form to the end of Nov 30th, not beyond if it does snow in the first three days of December. That is so I can convert the entry form into the first posting on actual amounts (Oct-Nov). 

    Have mentioned the contest out of forum to see if we can get a few "blow-ins" from other snow capitals. 


  17. If you enjoy predicting snowfall, two other opportunities:

    (a) 18th annual NE-US snowfall contest at

    http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES

    (during the season, 20th annual storm forecast contests, lots of fun, numerous AmWx members involved)

    firm deadline end of Friday 30th, season is only Dec 1 to Mar 31 so ignore current totals. ... 25 locations around the eastern U.S. incl the four we have here and SBY.

    and

    (b) Great Lakes - Ohio valley regional forum snow contest, over in that forum

    not a firm deadline (I set this one) and you could enter on Dec 1 or 2 -- the current totals are in the entry form and they count towards contest totals.

    worth a visit if you want to see snowfalls to date in the Midwest (42" MQT). 

    -------------------------------------------------------

    Looking forward to this one and the Dec 21-22 snowstorm (8-12")

     


  18. Four seasons contest update -- final scoring for the 2017-18 four seasons

     

    AUTUMN 2018 (Sept, Oct, Nov)

     

    ______________________ score ______________ score _______________ score (totals)

    FORECASTER ______ (original six) __ Points ___  (western) __ Points ____ (all nine) __ Points

     

    wxallannj _____________1083 ____ 6__________ 596 ______ 7________ 1679 _____10

    Scotty Lightning _______ 1110 ___ 10 __________537 ______ 3 ________1647 _____ 7

    RodneyS _____________1047 ____ 2 __________ 498 _____10 ________ 1645 _____ 6

    Tom _________________1073 ____ 5 __________567 ______ 5 ________1640 _____ 5

    BKViking _____________ 1068 ____ 4 __________518 ______ 1 ________1586 _____ 4

    ___ Consensus ________ 1039 ____1 __________536 ______ 2 ________1575 _____ 3

    Stebo ________________ 1109 ___ 7 __________ 464 ______ -- _______ 1573 _____ 3

    dmillz25 ______________ 971 ____ 1 __________ 568 ______ 6 ________1539 _____ 2

    Roger Smith ___________1048 ___ 3 __________ 487 ______ 1 ________1535 _____ 1

    ___Normal ____________ 954 ___ -- ___________532 ______ 2 ________1486 _____ 1

    hudsonvalley21_________952 ____ -- __________ 531 ______ 2 ________1483 _____ 1

    Don Sutherland.1 _______960 ____ 1 __________ 494 ______ 1 ________1454 _____ 1

    RJay _________________911 ____ -- __________ 542 ______ 4 ________1453 _____ --

    wxdude64 _____________1012 ___ 1 __________ 359 ______ --_______ 1371 _____ --

    jaxjagman ___(2 mo)___ 772 _____-- __________ 352 ______ -- _______ 1124 _____ --

     

     

    Four Seasons total points to date -- final standings for 2017-18 four seasons contest

    ... listed in order of all nine total points ...

     

    FORECASTER ____ (original six) __ Points __ (western) __ Points __ (all nine) __ Points

     

     

    wxallannj _________ 2, 1, 10, 6__ 19 ______ 1, 5, 1, 7___14 ___  2, 3,10,10 __25

    Scotty Lightning _____10, 0, 4, 10__24 _____ 10, 6, 1, 3 __ 20 ___10, 0, 2, 7 __19

    Don Sutherland.1 _____5, 4, 5, 1___15 _____ 7, 4, 6, 1 ___ 18 ____6, 4, 6, 1 __ 17

    RodneyS ____________ 0, 7, 1, 2 _ 10 ______ 1,10, 4,10 _ 25 ____0,10, 1, 6 __ 17

    BKViking ___________ 3, 0, 7, 4 ___14 _____ 1, 7, 1, 1____10 ____ 3, 2, 7, 4 __16

    Tom _______________ 0, 5, 6, 5__ 16 ______ 6, 1, 1, 5 __ 13 ____0, 5, 5, 5 __ 15

    ___ Consensus ____2, 1, 5, 1__ 9 _____ 3, 4, 2, 2 __11 ___ 4, 1, 7, 3 _ 15

    Roger Smith _________1,10, 2, 3 __16 ______ 5, 0, 0, 1 __ 6 ____ 4, 7, 0, 1___12

    hudsonvalley21 ______ 7, 1, 1, 0 ___9 ______ 3, 2,10, 2 __17 ____7, 1, 3, 1__ 12

    ___Normal __________ 7, 0, 0, 0 __ 7 ______ 6, 0, 0, 2 ___ 8 ____ 7, 0, 0, 1 __ 8

    wxdude64 __________ 4, 6, 0, 1 __ 11 ______ 0, 0, 4, 0___ 4 ____ 1, 6, 0, 0 __ 7

    dmillz25 _____________1, 0, 1, 1 __ 3 ______ 0, 1, 7, 3 __11 _____0, 0, 5, 2 __ 7

    so_whats_happening __ 6. 0, 0, 0 __ 6 ______ 2, 3, 0, 0 ___ 5 ____ 5, 0, 0, 0 __ 5

    RJay ________________1, 1, 0, 0 __ 2 ______ 0, 2, 5, 4 ___11 ____1, 1, 1, 0 __ 3

    Stebo _______________0, 2, 0, 7 __ 9 ______ 0, 0, 0, 0 ___ 0 ____ 0, 0, 0, 3 __ 3

    H2O_Town__WX ______0, 0, 0, 0 __ 0 ______ 5, 0, 0, 0 ___ 5 ____ 1, 0, 0, 0 __ 1

    jaxjagman ___________ 0, 0, 3, 0 __ 3 ______ 0, 0, 0, 0 ___ 0 ____ 0, 0, 1, 0 __ 1

     

    (only forecasters with any points are in table)

     

    Congrats to wxallannj for winning the four seasons contest (all nine), Scotty Lightning takes the "original six" portion and RodneyS wins the west.

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