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Roger Smith

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  1. <<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-Mar 2019 ----- ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>>

    _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ including March provisional scores to date _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

     

    A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. 

    Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. 

     

    FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___ all nine TOTAL

     

    ___ Consensus ___________ 248 _252 _250 __ 750__172 _178 _242 __ 592 __1342 __ 216 _192 _172 __ 580 ____1922

     

    DonSutherland.1 __________222 _268 _204 __ 694 __144 _164 _234 __ 542 __1236 __ 212 _206 _230__648____1884

    wxdude64 _______________238 _246 _236 __ 720 __206 _162 _238 __ 606 __1326 __234 _186 _120 __540____1866

    hudsonvalley21 ___________210 _250 _208 __ 668 __154 _186 _230 __ 570 __1238 __ 184 _218_196 __ 598 ____1836

    RodneyS ________________ 198 _226 _258 __ 682 __110 _204 _242 __ 556 __1238 __ 186 _186 _184 __ 556 ____1794

    Stebo ___________________225 _220 _270__ 715 __167 _143 _212 __ 522 __1237 __ 232 _178 _133 __ 543 ____1780

    wxallannj ________________230 _210 _244 __ 684 __114 _218 _228 __ 560 __1244 __ 132 _204 _162 __ 498 ____1742

    BKViking _________________221 _269_248 __738 __176 _135 _204 __ 515 __1253 __ 214 _142 _123 __ 479 ____1732

     

    Roger Smith _____________ 268 _202_246 __ 716 ___96 _152 _256 __ 504 __1220 __ 166 _174 _170 __ 510 ____1730

    ___ Normal ______________202 _250 _208 __ 660 __158 _138 _228 __ 524 __1184 __ 129 _211 _151 __ 491 _____1675

    RJay ____________________157 _194 _206 __ 557 __171 _126 _224 __ 521 __1078 __ 227 _207 _145 __ 579 ____1657

    Tom ____________________166 _232 _182 __ 580 __248 _ 84 _226 __ 558 __1138 __138 _196 _182 __ 516 _____1654

    Scotty Lightning ___________220 _220 _198 __ 638 __128 _198 _210 __ 536 __1174 __ 110 _164 _144 __ 418 ____1592

    _______________________________________________________________________

    Best scores in each category (March provisional)

    _ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e).

    _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above.

     

    FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine

     

    DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___2 ___ 1 ____ 0

    Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1

    hudsonvalley21 __________0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ____ 1

    ___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1

    wxallannj _______________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

    wxdude64 ______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1

    Roger Smith ____________ 2 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

    RodneyS _______________ 0 ___1 ___1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

    BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

    Scotty Lighning __________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

    RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

    ___ Normal _____________ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

    Tom ___________________1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

     

    __________________________________________________________________________________

     

    Extreme forecasts  

    STANDINGS to date in 2019 _ March provisional

     

    DonSutherland1 ______ 4-0

    Stebo ______________ 2-0

    wxallannj ____________2-0

    RodneyS ____________ 2-2

    Roger Smith _________ 2-3

    RJay ________________1-0

    Normal ______________1-0

    Tom ________________1-1

    ______________________________________________________________________________


  2.  

    Provisional scoring for March 2019

     

    Scores in orange are subject to late penalties (shown in next line). High scores in bold (after late penalties).

    This table will be adjusted whenever provisional anomalies are changed. 

     

    FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL

     


    ___ Consensus __________ 92 _ 80 _100 __272 __ 74 _ 92 _ 94 __260 __ 532 __ 90_ 76 _ 94 __260 ____ 792

     

    wxdude64 ______________ 92 _ 76 _ 86 __ 254 __ 68 _ 92 _ 92 __ 252 __506 __ 82 _ 84 _ 88 __ 254 _____760

    Tom ___________________94 _ 80 _ 90 __ 264 __ 68 _ 78 _ 94 __ 240 __ 504 __ 50 _ 74 _ 96 __ 220 _____ 724

    RodneyS ________________74 _100_ 92 __266 __ 52 _ 66 _ 92 __ 210 __ 476 __ 68 _ 78 _ 94 __ 240 _____ 716

    DonSutherland.1 _________ 70 _ 96 _ 94 __ 260 __ 46 _ 52 _100__ 198 __ 458 __ 90_ 76 _ 92 __ 258_____ 716

    hudsonvalley21 __________ 76 _ 66 _ 72 __ 214 __ 64 _ 88 _ 94 __ 246 __ 460 __ 56 _ 78 _100__ 234 _____ 694

     

    ___ Normal _____________ 90 _ 70 _ 80 __ 240 __ 50 _ 80 _100__ 230 __ 470 __ 40 _ 80 _ 90 __ 210 _____ 680

     

    BKViking ________________84 _ 92 _ 96 __ 272 __ 74 _ 86 _ 74 __ 234 __ 506 __ 76 _ 52 _ 84 __ 212 _ 718

    ____________ (-8%) _____ 77 _ 85 _ 88 __ 250 __ 68 _ 79 _ 68 __ 215 __ 465 __ 70 _ 48 _ 77 __ 195 _____ 660

    RJay ___________________ 60 80 70 __ 210 __ 80 _ 50 _100__ 230 __ 440 __ 90 _ 60 _ 90 __ 240 _ 680

    ____________ (-5%) _____ 57 76 67 __ 200 __ 7648 _ 95 __ 219 __ 419 __ 86 _ 57 _ 86 __ 229 _____ 648

    Roger Smith _____________74 _ 82 _ 76 __ 232 __ 68 _ 50 _ 86 __ 204 __ 436 __ 70 _ 92 _ 40 __ 202 _____ 638

    Stebo __________________ 60 _ 60 _100 __ 220 __ 74 _80 _ 80 __ 234 __ 454 __ 90 _ 40 80 __ 210 _ 664

    ____________ (-5%) _____ 57 _ 57 _ 95 __ 209 __ 70 _ 76 _ 76 __ 222 __ 431 __ 86 _ 38 _ 76 __ 200 _____ 631

    wxallannj _______________ 86 _ 54 _ 76 __ 216 __ 70 _ 74 70 __ 214 __ 430 __ 16 _ 94_ 90 __ 200 _____ 630

    Scotty Lightning __________70 _ 50 60 __ 180 __ 30 _100 _ 80 __ 210 __ 390 __ 30 _ 70 _ 80 __ 180 _____ 570

    _____________________________________________________________________________

     

    Extreme forecast report

     

    We managed to straddle most of the provisional finishing values this month and there is only one extreme forecast in play at this time.

    PHX will be a loss for Roger Smith (+1.4) and a win for wxallannj (+1.3) at any outcome between +0.8 and +1.3. Current projection is +1.0.

    SEA could provide a second one if it comes in warmer than normal. In that case Scotty L would take a win. 

     

     


  3. Updates on the trends and forecasts ...

     

    ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

     

    ____ (7d) _______ --6.5 _--8.8 _--6.1__--14.9 _--3.8 _--9.2 ___--17.1 _+3.8 _--5.3

    ___ (14d) _______ --1.9 _--4.2 _--2.8__ --6.3 _ +2.5 _+0.6 ___ --9.6 _--1.4 _--4.6

    ___ (21d) _______ --0 5_--2.0 _--0.7__ --4.6 _ +0.8 _--1.0 ___ --7.8 __ 0.0 _+0.4

     

    _8th __ (p14d) ___ --4.5 _--6.0 _--4.0 __ --8.0 _--1.0 _--2.0 ___--11.0 __0.0 _--3.5

    15th __ (p21d) ___ --0.5 _--2.0 _--1.3 __ --4.3 _+1.0 __ 0.0 ___ --6.4 _+1.1 _--1.5

    22nd __ (p28d)___ --0.7 _--1.5 _--1.0 __ --3.0 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ --4.5 _+1.0 _+0.1

     

    _8th __ (p24d) ___ --3.0 _--3.5 _--2.5 __ --5.0 _--0.5 _--0.5 ___ --7.0 _+0.5 _--2.0

    15th __ (p31d) ___ --0.5 _--1.5 _--1.0 __ --2.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ --2.5 _+2.0 _--2.0

    22nd __ (p31d) ___ --0.5 _--1.5 _--1.0 __ --2.5 _+1.0 _ 0.0 ___ --3.0 _+1.0 _--0.5

    __________________________________________________________________

    (15th) _ Trends in the past week turned out more extreme than predicted, leading to moderate errors (the expected warming outpaced forecasts especially by 13th-14th). Even so the forecasts caught about two-thirds of the actual warming. SEA on the other hand only moderated slightly. A larger western warming is expected this coming week with temperatures returning to near normal values in most of the eastern and central states. The outlook period from 22nd to 31st (GFS guidance) was handled as near normal in the northeast and ORD, trending to +3 warmth in the southeast and southwest, and a return to slightly below normal values for SEA.... seems a bit early to work out provisional scoring yet with those late month trends looking subject to revision later. 

    (22nd) _ Forecasts for the past week have verified well (average error was 0.72, a larger portion for SEA which warmed up to record levels for several days where the forecast had been a bit less robust). This coming week looks fairly close to normal or a touch below in most places, and the month end portion 29th to 31st appears to confirm the earlier trends. So I will post some provisional scoring for the month soon. 


  4. That 3 to 5 inch potential has vanished more recently, could see faint hope near end of the current run but we all know what usually happens to snow at 15 days. 

    The maps are available at this link:

    http://wetterzentrale.de

    click on "Archiv" option and go to 20th century NOAA which in fact is now 1851 to 2014 NOAA. From there, navigate using "nordhemispher" option.

    Let me know if that is not sufficient to get you to the maps. 

    This link should go to April 28, 1898. 

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?uur=1800&amp;var=1&amp;nmaps=24&amp;map=2&amp;model=noaa&amp;jaar=1898&amp;maand=04&amp;dag=28

    My German is not that good, but I now know the words for day, month and year. 

    Abschicken is what you press to activate a selected date from the menu.

    Hover works to allow you to change maps within the 3-day adjacent menu without the help of Abs chicken. ;)

     

     

     

    • Thanks 1

  5. This is the updated "snow you need" table with error amounts already logged and surpassed in brackets. I have added the interesting feature of forecasts passed by actual snowfall, each time somebody adds to that total, the running total changes (same order as the forecast departures). As you'll see, only four forecasts have been overtaken by BWI, while it is 11 for RIC,  12 for DCA and 14 for IAD. Of the 59 forecasts, 18 have at least one forecast passed by actual snowfall, 41 therefore can still finish perfect with the right residual snowfalls (one forecast is currently on the money for DCA). The leader in that category (no forecasts surpassed) is event host Prince Frederick wx. 

     

    Forecaster ______ Nov date ____ BWI ___ DCA ___ IAD ____ RIC ____ TOTAL _ (forecasts passed by actual) 

     

    Stormpc ___________26 _______ 1.7 ___(0.2) ___ (1.9) ___ 4.1 ______ 7.9 ____ 0 1 1 0

    Olafminesaw _______ 25 _______ 1.2 ___ 0.4 ____(3.0) ___(3.3) ______7.9 ____ 0 1 2 1

    RodneyS __________ 21 _______ 2.1 ___(3.0)___ (2.9) ____ 0.2 ______8.2 ____ 0 2 3 1

    Weather53 _________21 ______  3.0 ___(0.4)___ (4.4) ____ 1.6 ______ 9.4 ____ 0 3 4 1

    nw Baltimore wx ___ 10 _______  3.8 ___ (0.9) ___(1.5)___ (5.1) _____ 11.3 ____ 0 4 5 2

    Bob Chill __________ 27 _______ 7.8 ___ (0.9) ___ 2.5 ____ 0.9 ______ 12.1 ____ 0 5 5 2

    Prince Frederick Wx __1 ________6.3 ___ 0.8 ____ 1.3 ____ 4.0 ______ 12.4 

    WinterWxLuvr ______ 8 ________4.8 ___ 1.1 ____ 5.5 ____ (2.1) _____ 13.5 ____ 0 5 5 3

    biodhokie __________ 8 _______ 3.1 ___ 0.9 ____ (8.4) ___ 1.4 ______ 13.8 ____ 0 5 6 3

    Chris78 ____________ 1 _______ 8.5 ___ 1.5 ____ 2.1 ____ 1.8 ______ 13.9

    leesburg 04 _________1 _______ 3.8 ___ (4.9)____(3.5) ___(2.1) _____ 14.3 ____ 0 6 7 4

    MN Transplant _____ 28 _______ (0.4) ___(2.7)___(6.9) ___ (5.3) _____ 15.3 ____ 1 7 8 5

    dmillz25 ____________1 ______ 10.8 ___ 2.1 ____(1.5)____(2.1) _____ 16.5 ____ 1 7 9 6

    Thanatos_I_Am ____ 30 _______ 9.4 ___ 1.4 ____(0.7)____ (5.6) _____ 17.1 ____ 1 7 10 7

    Grothar of Herndon _ 30 _______ 7.5 ___ 1.4 ____ 2.6 ____ 6.1 ______ 17.6

    MillvilleWx __________1 _______ 9.2 ___ 4.2 ____ 3.0 ____ 1.9 ______ 18.3

    supernovasky _______ 9 _______ 1.8 ___ (5.9) ___(7.5) ___(4.1) _____ 19.3 ____ 1 8 11 8

    cae ______________ 30 _______ 9.4 ___ 4.9 ____ 4.8 ____(0.4)______ 19.5 ____ 1 8 11 9

    Gopper ___________ 15 ______ 10.6 ___ 0.8 ____ 6.8 ____ 2.4 ______ 20.6

    Gramax Refugee ____27 ______ 11.3 ___ 0.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 4.1 ______ 20.9

    NorthArlington101 ___ 1 _______ 7.5 ___ 5.9 ____ 5.7 ____ 2.9 ______ 22.0

    Wonderdog ________ 9 ________8.8 ___(0.3)____ 6.5 ____ 6.9 ______ 22.5 ____ 1 9 11 9

    Yoda _____________ 27 ______ 11.4 ___ 4.9 ____ 6.4 ____ 1.0 ______ 23.7

    WxWatcher007 _____30 ______ 10.7 ___ 4.2 ____ 6.0 ____ 3.3 ______ 24.2

    mattie g __________ 28 ______ 12.4 ___ 4.2 ___ 12.2 ____ 0.8 ______ 29.6

    Prestige Worldwide __27 ______ 12.8___ 6.1 ____ 8.5 ____ 2.7 ______ 30.1

    North Balti Zen ______5 ______ 10.6 ___ 4.2 ____ 9.2 ____ 6.5 ______ 30.5

    ___ Consensus ____ median ___ 12.4___ 5.8 ____ 8.5 ____ 3.9 ______ 30.6

    Bristow Wx _________ 1 ______ (4.4) _ (10.2) __(13.9) ___(4.4) _____ 32.9 ___ 2 10 12 10

    Shadowzone _______ 14 ______ 13.5___ 7.2 ____ 9.2 ____ 3.7 ______ 33.6

    LP08 ______________ 5 ______ 16.2 ___ 2.8 ___ 16.1 ____ 0.2 ______ 35.3

    wxUSAF ___________ 5 ______ 13.3 ___ 5.8 ____ 8.7 ____ 8.0 ______ 35.8

    mappy _____________5 ______ 13.8___ 8.1 ____ 8.5 ____ 5.9 ______ 36.3

    Sparky ____________ 2 ______ 15.8___ 8.1 ___ 12.5 ____ 0.9 ______ 37.3

    EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 _____ (7.3) __(10.4) __(15.4) ___(4.4) _____ 37.5 ___ 3 11 13 11

    BTRwx'sThanksGiving_12 _____ 15.8___ 7.1 ___ 11.5 ____ 3.9 ______ 38.3

    T. August _________ 21 ______ 17.8___ 6.0 ____ 1.0 ____16.1______ 40.9

    Cobalt ____________ 30 ______ 15.0___10.0 ___12.9 ____ 3.7 ______ 41.6

    clskinsfan _________ 20 ^ 1 ___19.3___10.6 ___ 10.0 ____ 5.4 ______ 45.3

    OnceinaLifetime2009_ 28 ______11.9___ 9.8 ___ 18.0 ____ 6.8 ______ 46.5

    HighStakes _________ 6 ______ 19.2___ 7.6 ___ 14.6 ____ 6.9 ______ 48.3

    ravensrule _________12 ______ 19.8___13.1 ___ 13.5 ____ 1.9 ______ 48.3

    psuhoffman ________ 1 ______ 20.8___11.1 ___ 10.5 ____ 6.9 ______ 49.3

    C. A. P. E. __________1 ______ 20.3___13.4 ____ 9.3 ____ 7.0 ______ 50.0

    Roger Smith _______ 26 ^ 1___ 25.6___12.3 ___ 16.0 ____ 7.9 ______ 61.8

    JakkelWx _________ 30 ______ 21.8___18.1 ___ 15.5 ___ 10.9 ______ 66.3

    GATECH __________ 1 _______ 27.7___18.8 ___ 21.0 ____ 1.2 ______ 67.7

    southMDwatcher ___ 20 _______25.6___14.2 ___ 21.4 ____ 7.6 ______ 68.8

    budice2002  _______ 14 ______ 23.8___14.1 ___ 19.5 ____12.9 ______ 70.3

    weatherCCB _______ 16 ______ 28.6___10.5 ___ 23.1 ____ 9.9 ______ 72.1

    snowgolfbro _______ 10 ______ 28.8___13.1 ___ 25.5 ____ 4.9 ______ 72.3

    nj2va _____________ 1 _______30.5___12.3 ___ 33.4 ____ 5.8 ______ 82.0

    George BM ________ 15 _____ (16.5) __(15.5) __ (23.5) __ 29.6 _____ 85.1 ___ 4 12 14 11

    SnowLuvrDude _____30 ______ 30.4___20.2 ___ 25.9 ____ 8.6 ______ 85.1

    showmethesnow ___ 27 ______ 31.8___17.1 ___ 27.5 ___ 10.9 ______ 87.3

    tplbge ____________16 _______34.8___17.1 ___ 22.5 ___ 15.9 ______ 90.3

    wxdude64 ________ 13 _______37.6___21.5 ___ 30.9 ___ 13.0 ______103.0

    osfan24 ___________ 7 _______36.1 __29.3 ___ 29.4 ___ 18.2 ______ 113.0

    AFewUnivBelowN ___ 1 _______46.8 __23.1 ___ 29.5 ___ 14.9 ______ 114.3

    RIC Airport ________ 1 _______44.3 __29.1 ___ 35.4 ___ 19.1 ______ 127.9

    __________________________________________________________

    • Thanks 1

  6. At this point, it may look like the host is favored to win, but vpbob21 currently in third place has a clear path to first if it snows at ORD, PIA and/or STL later this month. The remaining amounts that he has at MQT would move him closer but in addition to that (which seems likely, only 4") there needs to be some snow at ORD, STL and/or PIA to close the deal. I don't see any way that any other forecaster can pass vpbob21 or myself, and slowpoke has run out of places with any advantage no matter how much snow falls, with three exceptions that don't add up to the required amount to change the order of finish. Also, vpbob21 has an advantage if any major snowfall were to hit the Ohio valley with more left at those locations than any of the other leaders. 

    Even if vpbob21 can move ahead on all of those outcomes, he then has to avoid getting a return blow from added snow at GRR where I've still got 14.5" left to use. So it would need to be rather specific storm tracks that do well across the south and not at GRR. I've also got a bit left at APN and YYZ. 

    Contest could therefore remain undecided until well into April. 


  7. Snowfall contest 2018-2019 -- moved from Feb contest thread for final updates

    ... updates through Mar 23rd

    ... forecasts marked in red have been passed by actual snowfall.

     

    Table of departures (red can increase, black can decrease)

     

    FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

     

    Snowfall to date ________  16.9__20.5__27.4___41.6 __29.9 _114.1___39.2 __20.2 __101.8 

     

    Stebo __________________ 3.7 _ 12.8 _ 26.1 ___ 8.1 _ 17.1 __27.1 ___ 2.2* __ 9.5 __ 4.8 ___ 112.4 (2)

    RodneyS _______________ 4.4 __ 4.5*_ 10.1*___0.6*_ 13.6 __25.1 ___ 13.3 __15.7__28.8 ___ 116.1 (1)

    Roger Smith _____________1.1*__ 7.5 _ 17.6 __ 11.1 __ 5.6*24.1 ___21.3 __10.2 __23.8 ___ 122.3 (3)

    hudsonvalley21 __________ 5.1 _ 19.5 _ 34.6 ___ 5.6 _ 18.3 __12.6 ___ 11.8 __14.5 __13.8 ___ 135.8 (4)

    wxdude64 ______________ 6.0 _ 20.1 _ 32.3 ____2.7 _ 16.0 __15.7 ___ 28.4 __13.5 __11.5 ___ 146.2 (5)

    DonSutherland.1 ________ 15.6 _ 29.5 _ 30.1 ___ 6.9 _ 23.6 __ 4.1*___ 12.8 __16.7 __ 8.8  ___ 148.1 (6)

    ___ Consensus __________ 7.1 _ 24.0 _ 33.5 ___ 4.1 _ 14.8 _ 21.5 ____ 19.3 _ 13.8 __13.0 ___ 151.1 ((7))

    dmillz25 ________________ 7.1 _ 32.5 _ 39.6 ___ 1.6 __ 7.8 _ 29.1 ___ 17.8 __15.2 __11.8 ___ 162.5 (7)

    RJay __________________16.1 _ 33.5 _ 42.6 __ 11.6 __ 8.1 _ 14.1 ___ 25.8 __14.2 __ 1.8*___167.8 (11)

    wxallannj _______________ 8.1 _ 26.5 _ 24.6 ___ 7.4 _ 21.1 _ 31.1 ___ 17.8 __ 7.2 __24.8 ___ 168.6 (8)

    Tom ___________________ 9.4 _ 35.9_ 38.2 __ 12.0 _ 11.7 _ 18.9 ___ 23.1 __18.3 __12.2 ___ 179.7 (9)

    BKViking _______________ 7.1 _ 34.5 _ 43.6 ___ 6.6 __ 9.1 _ 36.1 ___ 20.8 __ 2.2*__23.8 ___ 183.8 (10)

    Scotty Lightning __________8.1 _ 21.5 _ 47.6__ 28.4_ 50.1__ 5.9___ 35.8 __10.2 __16.8 ___ 224.4 (12)

    _____________________________________________________________________________

    these are now placed in rank order.

    * current low departure _ 3 for RodneyS and 2 for Roger Smith with Stebo, Don Sutherland, BKViking and RJay holding one each.  

    Stebo has moved into first now that every forecast is overtaken by the total at BTV. However, RodneyS can regain the lead if 1.9" or more falls at DEN. Once that happens,, RodneyS can improve his lead over Stebo by twice any amount that falls at DEN until 11.4" more has fallen, however, I would be keeping pace 6.2" behind, passing Stebo when 3.1" more (total 5") have fallen at DEN. I could then in theory pass RodneyS after 3.1" falls at DEN on top of the total of 13.3" that he has left, and my total advantage there is 8" -- and neither of the two forecasters with more in their account than me at DEN can use their surprlus to catch me. I am not that confident that much more snow will fall at DEN but the season runs to mid-May there. So the odds are probably more in RodneyS' favor than either Stebo or myself. At other locations, I do not foresee much potential for the contest lead to change. It is possible that my 1.1" available at DCA might happen late in the season, which would reduce by 2.2" how much I need to catch RodneyS (there is never a scenario where I overtake Stebo before him). There are scenarios where heavy northeast US snowfalls (in April from looks of short range) could move Don Sutherland past all of us. Stebo also has some outcomes that restore his lead over RodneyS, in particular, snowfalls between 4.5" and 12.8" at NYC while I would come to within 0.1" at my margin of 7.5" which might reduce how much extra I might need at DEN. My chances can be reduced by any snowfall above 5.6" at DTW where I have the lowest forecast (nobody has been overtaken there, as with NYC and BOS). Further snow at BUF, SEA or BTV will have no effect on contest standings.  

    ============================================

    Actual forecasts >>>

     

    FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

     

    Snowfall to date ________  16.9__20.5 __27.4 ___41.6__29.9 _114.1___39.2__20.2 __101.3 

     

    RJay __________________33.0 _ 54.0 _ 70.0 __ 30.0 _ 38.0 _100.0___ 65.0 __ 6.0 _100.0

    DonSutherland.1 ________ 32.5 _ 50.0 _ 57.5 __ 48.5 _ 53.5 _110.0___ 52.0 __ 3.5 _ 93.0

    Tom __________________ 26.3 _ 56.4_ 65.6 __ 29.6 _ 41.6 _ 95.2 ___ 62.3 __ 1.9 _ 89.6

    wxallannj ______________ 25.0 _ 47.0 _ 52.0 __ 49.0 _ 51.0 _ 83.0 ___ 57.0 _ 13.0 _ 77.0

    Scotty Lightning _________25.0 _ 42.0 _ 75.0__ 70.0_ 80.0_120.0___75.0 10.0 _ 85.0

    BKViking _______________24.0 _ 55.0 _ 71.0 __ 35.0 _ 39.0 _ 78.0 ___ 60.0 _ 18.0 _ 78.0

     

    ___ Consensus _________ 24.0 _ 44.5 _ 60.9 __ 37.5 _ 44.7 _ 92.6 ___ 58.5 __ 6.4 _ 88.8

     

    dmillz25 _______________ 24.0 _ 53.0 _ 67.0 __ 40.0 _ 37.7 _ 85.0 ___ 57.0 __ 5.0 _ 90.0

    wxdude64 _____________ 22.9 _ 40.6 _ 59.7 __ 38.9 _ 45.9 _ 98.4 ___ 67.6 __ 6.7 _ 90.3

    hudsonvalley21 _________ 22.0 _ 40.0 _ 62.0 __ 36.0 _ 48.2 _101.5___ 51.0 __ 5.7 _ 88.0

    Roger Smith ____________18.0 _ 28.0 _ 45.0 __ 30.5 _ 35.5 _ 90.0 ___ 60.5 _ 10.0 _ 78.0

    Stebo _________________ 13.2 _ 34.3 _ 53.5 __ 33.5 _ 47.0 _ 87.0 ___ 37.0 _ 10.7 _ 97.0

    RodneyS _______________12.5 _ 25.0 _ 37.5 __ 41.0 _ 43.5 _ 89.0 ___ 52.5 __ 4.5 _ 73.0

    _____________________________________________________________________

    High forecasts in bold, low forecasts in italic. 

    Consensus is median, average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts. 

    Normal will be added later from NWS daily climate data snowfalls late in season. 

    ... watch for updates to season totals and this post will migrate to new months as we move along .


  8. First reports on anomalies and forecasts ...

     

    ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

    ____ (7d) _______ --6.5 _--8.8 _--6.1__--14.9 _--3.8 _--9.2 ___--17.1 _+3.8 _--5.3

     

    _8th __ (p14d) ___ --4.5 _--6.0 _--4.0 __ --8.0 _--1.0 _--2.0 ___--11.0 __0.0 _--3.5

     

    _8th __ (p24d) ___ --3.0 _--3.5 _--2.5 __ --5.0 _--0.5 _--0.5 ___ --7.0 _+0.5 _--2.0


  9. I have now updated all charts back on page five of the thread. They seem to match the latest spread sheet except that 0.2" more has fallen at BWI (3rd) so that resulted in one or two changes in the order as shown, almost everyone gaining 0.2" (losing 0.2" from total departures). 

    I will move the last of the charts that I produced to the end of the thread when the contest seems to be done. Could be some more snow next week by the looks of some guidance. 


  10. Table of forecasts March 2019

     

    FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

     

    Stebo _______ (-5%) _____ +1.5 _+0.5 _--1.0 __--1.2 _+2.0 _+1.0 ___--2.5 _--2.0 _--1.5

    wxallannj _______________ +1.2 _+0.8 _+0.2 __--1.0 _+2.3 _+1.5 ___+1.2 _+1.3 _--1.0

    Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ____0.0 _--0.5 _+0.5

    hudsonvalley21 __________ +0.7 _+0.2 _+0.4 __--0.7 _+1.6 _+0.3 ___ --0.8 _--0.1 _--0.5

    BKViking ____ (-8%) ______+0.2 _--1.1 _--1.2 __--1.2 _+1.7 _+1.3 ___ --1.8 _--1.4 _--1.3

    ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 

    ___ Consensus __________ --0.1 _--0.5 _--1.0 __ --1.2 _+0.6 _+0.3 ___--2.5 _--0.2 _--0.8

    wxdude64 ______________ --0.1 _--0.3 _--0.3 __ --4.1 _+0.6 _+0.4 ___--3.9 _+0.2 _--1.1

    Tom ___________________ --0.2 _--0.5 _--0.5 __--0.9 _--0.1 _--0.3 ___--0.5 _--0.3 _--0.7

    RodneyS ________________--1.8 _--1.5 _--1.1 __--4.9 _--0.7 _--0.4 ___--4.6 _--0.1 _--0.8

    Roger Smith _____________--1.8 _--2.4 _--2.2 __--0.9 _--1.5 _--0.7 ___--4.5 _+1.4 _--3.5 

    DonSutherland.1 _________ --2.0 _--1.7 _--1.3 __--5.2 _--1.4 __ 0.0 ___--3.5 _--0.2 _--0.1

    RJay __________ (-5%) ___ --2.5 _--2.5 _--2.5 __--3.5 _--1.5 __ 0.0 ___--2.5 _--1.0 __0.0

    ____________________________________________________________________________

    Consensus for the eleven forecasts is sixth ranked or median value. 

    Red and blue color codes identify warmest and coldest forecasts. 

     

     

     

     


  11. With the updated table of departures (back in the thread) you can see that it will be quite a finish to this contest. I have used up just about all my previously mentioned advantage snowfall but have about 7" left at MSP+GRB+YYZ and some at APN. However, other contenders have more stored up at other locations. So it will all come down to where it snows from now to end of the contest, probably anyone in the top six at present has a chance. 

    If you're trying to work out your chances, if you're in the red and your competitors are also in the red, you can ignore that location, you will gain errors equally from now on. If you're black and they're red, you have twice that differential advantage (but it has to snow to get paid off). If you're both in the black, your advantage is the differential but it depends on whether it snows or not to claim it. YXU is probably not a factor, it likely won't reach minimum forecast (so all errors will change equally going forward). CLE, PAH and SDF may be similar but the lowest forecasts there are in some danger of losing an advantage if there are some snowfalls. For PAH and SDF the season is almost over though. (edit Mar 9th _ SDF has now passed two lowest forecasts).


  12. The severe outbreak is more good than bad for snow later, it shows the system is rapidly deepening and so that should pull in colder air faster, some places that have flipped from snow to rain could go back to snow after 7 pm. Not much hope for anywhere southeast of I-95 but between there and current snowfall, could change back. 

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  13. Low is currently just northwest of Augusta GA and heading east-north-east, should be near ORF by midnight. Some hope therefore of a phase change back to snow for some now getting rain, darkness and better access to colder air filtering into w PA should both be helpful factors. This could have been quite a heavy snowfall for the airports if colder high pressure had been in place ahead of the low, but could have a fairly good outcome anyway for some. Heavy thunderstorms likely for anyone south of an EZF to OCE line tonight, 1-2" rainfalls likely in s.e. VA. 


  14. I could see this busting on the high side of forecasts quite easily, it's a weak complex of lows with marginal but not impossible uppers, so it won't do much warm advection. Current obs in central OH moderate to heavy snow. Fingers crossed for 2-5" outcomes in parts of MD at least. 

    • Thanks 1

  15. I win, and President Grover Cleveland will send emissaries to find out how I do this. Even so, he'll lose the election later this year. But get this, he'll win another one in 1892. He'll be the only president to get two different numbers. Cool. 


  16. Winter Seasonal Scoring 2018-2019

    The "four seasons" contest will change this year to a rank-ordered format that will perhaps stay mostly confined to the eleven regular forecasters we have at the moment unless somebody new joins in and plays all months in any given season. So you'll see one table of total scores and one of ranks. The overall low score on ranks like in golf will win the event.

     

    FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___ all nine TOTAL

     

    wxallannj ________________204 _212 _224__ 640 __104 _202_248 __554_ 1194__194 _184 _112 __ 490___1684

     

    DonSutherland.1 __________197 _208 _138 __ 543 __138 _166 _234 __ 528 _ 1081 __178 _226 _194__ 598 ___1679

    hudsonvalley21 ___________184 _238 _180 __ 602 __110 _146 _220 __ 476__1078 __190 _210 _158 __ 558 ___1636

    Scotty Lightning ___________210 _248_206 __664 __143 _162 _224 __ 529__1193 __120 _180 _ 98 __ 398 ___1591

    RodneyS _________________164 _174 _202 __ 540 __108 _162 _230 __ 500__1040 __182 _194 _130 __ 506 ___1546

    Roger Smith _____________ 219 _142 _198 __ 559 __ 63 _110 _242 __ 415 __ 974 __196 _148 _220 __ 564 ___1538

     

    ___ Consensus ___________ 186 _204 _182 __ 572 __133 _ 94 _220 __ 447 _ 1019 __ 182 _202 _132 __ 516 ____1535

    ___ Normal _______________152 _228 _176 __ 556__151_ 92 _204 __ 447 _ 1003 __ 149 _225 _ 95 __ 459 ____1462

     

    BKViking _________________179 _220 _192 __ 591 __124 _ 56 _208 __ 388 __ 979 __ 190 _182 _ 96 __ 458 ____1447

    Stebo ___________________180 _181 _181 __ 542 __152 _ 67 _188 __ 407 __ 949 __ 176 _204 _115 __ 495 ____1444

    RJay ____________________124 _145 _166 __ 435 __119 _ 92 _183 __ 394 __ 829 __209_233 _111 __ 553 ____1382

    wxdude64 _______________150 _170 _150 __ 470 __142 _ 76 _ 214 __ 432 __ 902 __ 160 _186 _104 __ 450 ____1352

    Tom ___________________ 102 _184 _122 __ 408 __ 192 _ 10 _204 __ 406 __ 814 __126 _218 _138 __ 480 ____1294

    ___ (1 mo only) ___ >>>

    IntenseBlizzard2014 ________ 16 _ 30 _ 34 __ 080 ___ 35 _ 04 _ 66 __ 105 __ 185 ___ 42 _ 92 _ 46 __ 180 _____ 365

    dmillz25 __________________08 _ 00 _ 00 __ 008 ___ 08 _ 00 52 __ 060 __ 068 ___ 70 _ 74 _ 64 __ 208 _____ 276

    _____________________________________________________________________________________

     

    Ranking Points

    east, central not counted in total as c/e is counted. ... Consensus and Normal ranks do not affect forecaster ranks.

    * indicates tied rankings

     

    FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west__all nine__TOTAL

     

    DonSutherland.1 __________ 4 __ 5 __ 10 __ ( 6) ___5 __ 2 __ 3 __ ( 3) __ ___ 7 __ 2 __ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 46

    wxallannj ________________ 3 __ 4 __ 1 __ ( 2) ___10 ____1 __ ( 1) __ ___ 3 __ 8 __ 7 ___ 7 ____ 1  ______47

    hudsonvalley21 ___________ 5 __ 2 __ 7 __ ( 4) ___ 8 __ 5 __ 6 __ ( 5) __ 4 ___ 4* __4 __ 3 ___ 3 ____ 3 ______ 54

    Roger Smith ______________1 __ 11 __ 4 __( 5) ___11 _ 6 __ 2 __ ( 7)  __ 7 ___ 2 __11__ 1 ___ 2 ____ 6 ______ 64

    Scotty Lightning ___________ 2 __ 1 __ 2 __ ( 3) ___ 3 __ 3*__ 5 __ ( 2) __ 2 __11 __10 __10 __11 ____ 4 ______ 64

    RodneyS _________________ 8 __ 8 __ 3 __ ( 8) ___ 9 __ 3*__ 4 __ ( 4) __ 5 ___ 6 __ 6 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 5 ______ 67

    ___ Consensus ___________  5 __ 6 __ 6  __ ( 5) ___ 6 __ 7 __ 6*__ ( 6) __  ___ 6*__ 6 __ 5  ___5 ___ 7 ______ 71

    Stebo ___________________ 6  __ 7 __ 6 __ ( 7) ___ 2 __ 9 __10 __ ( 8) __ 8 ___ 8 __ 5 ___ 6 ___ 6 ____ 8 ______ 81

    BKViking _________________ 7 __ 3  __ 5 __ ( 5) ___ 6 __10 __ 8 __ (11) __ 6 ___ 4*__ 9 __11___ 9 ____ 7 ______ 85

    RJay ____________________10 __10 __ 8 __(10) ___ 7 __ 7 __11 __ (10)__10 ___ __ 1 ___ 8 ___4 ____ 9 ______ 86

    ___ Normal _______________9 __  3 __ 8 __ ( 6) ___ 3 __ 7*__ 9*__ ( 6) __ ___10 __ 3 __12 ___ 9 ____ 7 ______ 86

    Tom ____________________11 __ 6 __11 __(11) ___ __11 __ 9 __ ( 9) __11 ___10 __ 3 __ 4 ___ 8 _____11______96

    wxdude64 ________________ 9 __ 9 __ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 4 __ 8 __ 7 ___( 6) __ 9  ___ 9 __ 7 ___ 9  __10 ____10______100

     

     

     


  17. I'm laughing at the cone toss, not the tree damage or the potential danger to the people around where it fell. 

    Re the traffic accident on Hwy 400 north of Toronto, a similar outcome during a storm in March 1973 but in that case more deadly results, I think eight people died in that multi-vehicle pile-up. 


  18. I've only seen snow like that in high elevations of the Selkirk Mountains around here, or in the mid-1970s in Ontario. There was a time in January 1976 when six to eight feet of snow covered most of the London ON region and snowplow drifts were up above ten feet high, the city works people had to go around the side streets placing poles with flags on them to mark the location of fire hydrants. In early April 1975 there was a storm like this one in central Ontario and it closed highways for a week with people stranded in community centres and church basements in towns north of Toronto. But that storm started with only a foot of snow at the most on the ground, so one can only imagine how much worse this one will be for future recovery and travel issues. One thing I can advise (for the Minnesota open country especially) is that if you don't clear the big undulating drifts from driveways etc, they will freeze hard in the freeze-thaw cycle of the strong sunshine and cold temperatures to follow, and when they freeze, they are going to last 2-3 weeks minimum. 

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