Roger Smith

The GFS track looks like 30-40 cm potential for Toronto and 40-60 cm western end of L Ontario. STL went from 54" to 2" -- but it's early days yet. I can't see it moving any more to east now, track could edge back west.

Snow situation much improved here now, 10" fell on Saturday and another 1-2" today, 15-20" reported in alpine ski areas. Full operations possible for first time this winter here. Temp around 28 F.

I looked at all the guidance and wondered if perhaps the eventual solution is a very strong low a bit further east like a Euro track with GFS intensity running up into Lake huron rather than Lake michigan. That would be even more similar to 1-26-1978 and would bring heaviest snow and intense blizzard conditions into Indiana and lower michigan although it would still be an extreme event for IL and WI. Would not be anywhere near 54" of snow for STL, perhaps 10-15", the max snowfalls on my proposed track (at GFS intensity) would be 30-40 inches from about s IL to GRR to n lower michigan. All it takes to shift east is a deeper dive of vorticity into TX and recurve into e/c AR and w KY-s IL then n.n.e., 960 low near LAN instead of GRB. In weather history, L huron is of course a magnet for deep lows, beside 1-26-78 there was also 11-09-1913, but I suppose if analogs for further west are sought, how about Nov 1, 1991?

I will go with Plymouth to Newport to Groton sharp cutoff, coastal CT will see a lot more falling snow than measured snow on ground, like 2" reports after perceived 5-8" falls, and even north to BOS there will be snow stickage issues, will guess 5.5" BOS storm reported total, but expect reports of 8-12" not far away, storm jacks 15"-18" near (n-n.e. of) Worcester possibly almost to Nashua, Tolland 9", 40/70 13".

Strange balance of governing factors in play, quite a cold high will get over central Quebec by early Saturday but it's further north than optimal arctic high position for east coasst snowstorm, even so, uppers do not favor very strong marine inflow. Sort of like two prize fighters staying in their respective corners throwing menacing punches to indicate hostility. Do they come to blows? If so where? I am guessing a middle solution which favors a stronger than normal gradient of snowfall outcomes, from near zero at JFK to near 8 inches in lower hudson valley. Would say 1.8" for NYC. As some have said, a lot of falling snow, 75% of it possibly melting on contact, in parts of New York City. A bit of top up to amounts on Sunday p.m. when low has shifted far enough east.

I was thinking 14-18 earlier, now perhaps 18-24 inch potential in BOS n, w. It keeps developing off the coast for about 18 hours. You do want the north trend to stop today, think it will.

06z GFS slower and closer to Long Island. Would expect it to shift rain-snow line to about ISP-JFK but also heavier snow potential n/w suburban areas.

I should perhaps put the work into the forecasts too.

Snow drought continues up this way, just a frozen 1-3 inches around my elevation and bare ground in Columbia valley, usually there would be 1-2 feet here and 6-10 inch base in the valley. Golf courses are open in valleys further west. On NYD it was near 60F in Vancouver BC and 63F was reached on Dec 29 at SEA. Winter? I don't see it around here.

Welcome back everyone, you'll find all 2023 contest scoring and a historical record of the contest going back to earliest days of American Weather Forum (2013 to 2023) in the DEC 2023 thread. We now venture forth into the great unknown of 2024 with clean slates and keen for the challenge. Table of forecasts for January 2024 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Stormchaser Chuck _____ +4.5 _ +4.2 _+3.4 __ +2.0 _+4.8 _+4.4 __+0.5 _-1.0 _-2.0 rainsucks ________________+2.7 _ +3.1 _ +3.2 __ +4.0 _ +1.5 _+2.0 __+2.5 _+1.5 _+1.1 BKViking ________________ +2.0 _ +2.1 _ +2.4 __ +2.2 _ +0.8 _+1.3 __+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.2 RJay _____________________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +2.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __+0.5 _+0.5 _+1.0 hudsonvalley21 _________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___+0.4 _ +0.6 _ +1.1 __+1.3 _+2.0 _-0.8 so_whats_happening ____ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __ -1.3 _ -0.8 _ -1.0 __ -1.2 _ -1.8 _ -1.2 wxallannj ________________ +1.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 __ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ +1.2 __ -1.5 _ -2.2 _ -1.5 ___ Consensus __________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.6 __ +1.1 _ -0.2 _ +1.0 __ +0.4 _ -0.1 _ +0.4 DonSutherland1 _________ +1.1 __+1.4 _ +1.6 __ +2.2 _ -0.1 _ -0.2 __ -0.3 _ -0.4 _+1.2 Scotty Lightning _________ +0.5 _-0.5 _ -1.0 __ -1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _-0.5 Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS ________________ -0.2 _ +1.0 _ +1.6 __ +1.3 _ -1.7 _ -0.5 ___ -3.1 _ -1.0 _ -1.6 Rhino16 __________________ -0.2 _ -0.6 _ -0.8 __ +1.0 _ -0.4 _ 0.0 ___ -0.7 _ -0.6 _ +1.2 wxdude64 _______________ -0.4 _ +0.2 _ +0.8 __ +1.1 _ -0.7 _ -1.1 ___ -1.3 _ -1.9 _ +0.2 Roger Smith _____________ -0.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.2 __ +1.0 _ -1.0 _ +0.9 __ +3.5 _ +3.8 _ +4.5 Tom _____________________ -0.8 _ -1.1 __ -1.1 ___ -2.2 _ -1.9 _ +0.1 ___ +0.2 _ +0.1 _ +0.6 Persistence _____________ +4.0 _ +5.5 _ +5.1 ___ +8.6 _+2.6 _+1.9 __ +6.2 _+4.7 _+3.5 ____________________ color codes are used for warmest and coldest forecasts (not including Persistence) Consensus for 14 forecasts is average of 7th and 8th ranked.

Results are now final as no further activity since last table posted. Congrats to yotaman, contest winner, and tae laidir from boards.ie, a very close second place. Ties in scoring are broken by order of entry as shown in table above. I have added ranks to table. There is an overall ranking (excluding non-entrants such as "expert forecasts" and contest consensus values) and a ranking within your own forum since three participated. (all info in previous post)

The history of the contest (with personal best scores) Before 2013, the contest was managed by a number of people including but not limited to Chicago Storm, mallow and Ellinwood. In 2013 I began to score the contest, although there was no max-60 rule and just six stations until 2014. In 2014 the three western locations were offered as "optional" and the scores were not combined. Contest scoring reports were separated into two groups (original six and western three), but by 2017 the scores were combined so total scoring was out of 900 each month. In 2013, RodneyS was the annual contest winner and DonSutherland1 was third. We used to have a considerably larger contest field of 30-40 lasting to about 2017, and some who have departed are long-time members still active, others have left Am-Wx or at least are now operating under a different username). I have added results from 2013, bearing in mind, totals are out of 600, not 900 (no western stations yet) ... month _______ winning score (/600) _____ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ___________ 452 _Mallow, 448 midlo snow maker __ 436 RodneyS FEB ___________ 512 __ Ineedsnow ______ Don Sutherland1 __ 492 MAR _____________ 457 __ wxdude64 APR ___________ 466 __Sacrus __________ RodneyS _ 462 _____ no snowfall contest winter 2012-13 MAY _____________ 534 __ Isotherm _520 Ellinwood __ 506 BKViking (tied OhLeary) __ severe storm bonus contest, subjective post-mortem* ___ ___ ____ ____ _____ ______ _______ ________ __________ __________ *pottercounty, Ellinwood, MNT, ChIcago Storm were mentioned as best JUN ___________ 556 __ Roger Smith _ 550 Mallow _ 546 Midlo Snow Maker JUL ___________ 460 __ Mallow, 438 Sacrus __ 424 wxdude64 AUG ___________530 __ UncleW __ 524 Chicago Storm __ 522 Roger Smith SEP ___________ 538 __ MN_Transplant __ four others, then 472 _ SD (Scotty L nowadays) OCT __________ 544 __ forkyfork ________522 _BKViking tied 4th __ Midlo Snow Maker won seasonal max contest for 6 locs (RodneyS t2nd w UncleW) NOV __________ 470 __ RodneyS ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year DEC ___________448 __ MetallicWx366 ___ DonSutherland1 _ 392 __ Winner of 2013 contest (combined score) was RodneyS (5215) with Midlo Snow Maker second at 4967, DonS 3rd at 4851. No extreme forecast tracking yet. In 2014, although scores were not combined, I have added them and found these monthly wins ( was going to place numbers in brackets to represent scoring if a max-60 rule was in effect but could find few cases of revisable scores, a few such low scoring months exist but those with increased scores did not come very close to winning any month): ___ note your personal best score is also tracked even if you didn't win that month. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ___________ 700 __ Roger Smith FEB ___________ 558 __ midlo snow maker ___ Don Sutherland1 __ 532 MAR _____________ 677 __ Don Sutherland1 APR ___________ 802 __Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Mallow 798 ) ___ midlo snow maker won snowfall contest (Tom t4 best of current forecasters) MAY _____________ 736 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Isotherm 728 ) JUN ___________ 810 __ Mallow ___________ Roger S _ 808 ... hudsonvalley21 _ 794 JUL ___________ 592 __ Roger Smith (also Cpick79 (N of Pike) tied 592) AUG __________ 608 __ Don Sutherland1 SEP ___________ 742 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ Don Sutherland1 and BKViking _ 716 OCT __________ 584 __ wxallannj (600) ___ Damage in Tolland won seasonal max contest (RodneyS 2nd) NOV __________ 609 __ Roger Smith (627) ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year DEC __________ 592 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ wxallannj _ 462 __ Winner of 2014 contest (combined score) was Roger Smith (7195 would be 7213 now) while DonS totalled 7186. This close finish was not recorded at the time and Don was close to top of western scoring. Roger Smith also won the extreme forecast award (14-2). 2015 _ scores now combined making this project a lot simpler to navigate ... month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN __________ 656 __ Isotherm __________ Tom _ 542 FEB ________ about 500* __ DonS ... ______ __ __ BKViking won snowfall contest for winter on a different scoring system MAR __________ 507 __ Absolute humidity ____ DonS _ 503 APR _________796 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ wxallannj _ 756 MAY ________ 535 __ Stebo _______________ RodneyS _ 495 JUN ________ 596 __ wxdude64 JUL ________ 765 __ DonSutherland1 AUG _______ 696 __ SD (Scotty L) __ (later realized SD was Scotty Lightning, not sure when changed) SEP ________ 619 __ RJay ____________ __ __ SD (Scotty L) won seasonal max contest, Tom was 2nd. OCT _______ 714 __ Damage in Tolland ____ DonS 644 NOV _______ 774 __ ksammut _Ohwx 752 __DonS 726 ___ first four seasons contest winner Isotherm, DonS 4th (Mallow 2nd, msm 3rd) DEC _______ 487 __ snoski14 _______________Roger Smith 454 (very mild Dec 2015, scoring quite low for most) The highest combined score for 2015 was 6944 (Isotherm) and DonS was third at 6499. (D in T was 2nd). Damage in Tolland also won extreme forecast award (11-0), RJay and RodneyS (5-2) were best of currently active forecasters. * Feb 2015 was a very cold month, low scoring ... I proposed a max 60 rule in play but it was left out for 2015 ... if it were used, DonS would have won with about 500 pts. The actual high score was 383 for mikehobbyst. _______________________ 2016 _ The max-60 rule was still not adopted, and scoring for DEN and PHX was quite low in Feb 2016 but I couldn't find any potential winning scores among those who would have seen improved scores. No doubt our current forecasters would have scored higher if they alone had been boosted. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ______ 724 __ wxdude64 FEB ______ 534 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ RodneyS _ 446 MAR ______665 __Maxim ______________ DonS _ 637 APR ______ 710 __ wxallannj __________ __ __ winter snow contest won by Mallow, wxdude64 (5th) had high score of current active forecasters MAY ______ 708 __ Don Sutherland1 JUN ______ 702 __ Damage in Tolland __ RodneyS __ 658 JUL ______ 754*__ OHweather 754 _____ wxdude64, hudsonvalley21 _ t744 __ *(Consensus won wit 756) AUG ______ 646 __ RJay SEP ______ 698 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 632 ____ Summer max contest co-winners Maxim and Mallow, RodneyS was 3rd OCT _____ 580 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 560 NOV _____ 650 __ Don Sutherland1 ____ four seasons winners (tied) DonS and RJay DEC _____ 631 __ BKViking (despite 6% late penalty) DonSutherland1 won the annual contest with 7139 points. Damage in Tolland won extreme forecast award 9-0. Among currently active forecasters, RodneyS in fourth (7-3) was top currently active. 2017 still went forward without max-60 scoring and contests were not yet fully merged. The January scores were very low in eastern and central regions, due to very mild conditions. If max-60 had been applied, they would have been higher by at least 100 in some cases. Top scores were as low as 17 and 20. A much smaller adjustment was required in February 2017, where ORD had a top score of 49, and it was recorded by the eventual contest winner RJay. March also needed adjusting and after a discussion, we used a modified version of max-60 scoring. Score adjustments shown here use the current version. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 452 (587) _ Don Sutherland1 FEB ________587 (598) _ RJay MAR _______518 (556) _ RodneyS _________ Mercurial won snowfall contest with RodneyS a close second. APR _______ 628 __ RJay MAY _______ 670 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ (Normal _ 702 actually "won" contest) JUN _______ 694 __ wxallannj JUL ________778 __ RJay AUG _______ 770 __ Don Sutherland1 SEP ________ 725 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 589 ____ CCM won seasonal max, one point ahead of BKViking OCT _______ 645 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 627 NOV _______ 532 (556) _ RodneyS _______ RodneyS also won four seasons contest for 2017 DEC _______ 614 __ Don Sutherland1 The annual contest winner for 2017 was RJay, scoring 6417 (would have been closer to 6600 using current scoring). Extreme forecast winner was also RJay at 8-0. By late 2017 the contest turnout was beginning to look fairly similar to 2022-23, with perhaps three or four additional players. To drum up support I came up with the "Regional Rumble" concept for 2018 which compared scores of top forum sub-regional forecasters in a team format. This worked for a while but the overwhelming superiority of NYC and mid-Atlantic had a chilling effect and by end of 2018 we were pretty much back to square one, and the "Regional Rumble" went the way of the Edsel and robots who do housework. SD changed to Scotty Lightning during 2018, can't tell when as software changed username before I changed name in scoring tables. 2018 As noted above, "Regional Rumble" took place in 2018. Best regional score (eastern, central, western) from any forecaster in sub-forum was used to determine format scoring. Also, max-60 finally made it to scoring system, so 2018 scores are directly comparable to more recent years. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 640 _ Mercurial __________ Don Sutherland1 _ 536 ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/western FEB _______ 449 _ so_whats_happening (despite 4% late pen) ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly MAR ______ 684 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic. APR _______ 627 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC MAY _______ 633 _ Roger Smith ________ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/West ___ snowfall contest winner Don Sutherland1 JUN _______ 744 _ BKViking (742 Tom) _ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC JUL _______ 737 _ RodneyS _____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic AUG ______ 618 _ Don Sutherland1 ______ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC SEP _______ 688 _ RJay _________________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC ___ seasonal max contest winner Don Sutherland1 OCT _______ 650 _ Scotty Lightning ____ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic NOV _______ 527 _ Scotty Lightning (Normal 540) __ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly ___ Four Seasons winner wxallannj DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _____________"Regional Rumble" winner Philly (annual NYC) ___ Annual contest winner Scotty L (6393) _______________ _______________ _________________ _________________ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (15-1) 2019 _ Contest entrants now limited to current group plus Stebo who only entered first four, RJay also opted out for rest of year around May. Regional Rumble no longer in operation. Two guest appearances in 2019 by jakkelwx (July and Dec), and one each for tplbge (June), smerby (July), and Orangeburg Wx (Oct). month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 676 _ hudsonvalley21 FEB _______ 585 _ stebo (despite 3% late pen) _ RodneyS _ 550 MAR ______ 737 _ wxdude64 _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY) APR _______ 707 _ RodneyS MAY _______ 658 _ RodneyS JUN _______ 792 _ wxdude64 JUL _______ 686 _ Roger Smith AUG _______672 _ Scotty Lightning SEP _______ 600 _ Roger Smith ______ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj OCT _______ 682 _ Orangeburg Wx __ Don Sutherland1 586 NOV _______ 679 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS (consensus marginally better score, based on ranks not points in 2019) DEC _______ 601 _ wxallannj __________Annual contest winner wxdude64 (7114) (RodneyS 7106) ___ Extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (27-8) ... also Roger Smith had a larger total of best forecasts but with quite a few very low scores, and so ended up middle of annual scoring table. 2020 _ The year began with the current group of regulars (except for so_whats_happening who had been active around 2016-18 but not in 2019 or 2020), and a number of new faces, some of who entered more than once during 2020. Brian5671 entered eight, jakkelwx seven, yoda four, and rclab, dwave, Maxim and Rhino16 one each. Maxim was quite regularly entered in contests around 2014 to 2017. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 559 _ RodneyS FEB _______ 701 _ RodneyS MAR ______ 638 _ DonSutherland1 ___ snowfall contest winner wxallannj (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY) APR _______ 595 _ DonSutherland1 ... (632_Normal was actual winner) MAY _______ 726 _ RodneyS JUN _______ 726 _ RJay (despite 2% late penalty) JUL _______ 664 _ RJay AUG _______732 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 794 _ RodneyS __________ seasonal max contest winner RodneyS, wxallannj was 2nd by one point. OCT _______ 690 _ Yoda _____________ hudsonvalley21 _ 660 NOV _______ 579 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS DEC _______ 730 _ DonSutherland1 ___Annual contest winner RodneyS (7223) __ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith 17-5 (RodneyS was 15-4). RJay at 13-0 _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ had the best differential. 2021 __ The year began with the current regular entrants participating. Deformation Zone entered six from July to Dec. Stormchaser Chuck appeared in only one (NOV), and had previously entered a few contests as "A few universes below normal" (I think) in previous years. The seasonal max contest ran in a separate thread in an effort to attract extra forecasts (none were submitted). The infamous heat dome struck and SEA had a seasonal max of 108! Despite missing that by 16 deg, wxallannj won the contest. Our highest forecast for SEA was 99F. At my own location, an all time max of 113 was recorded. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 678 _ DonSutherland1 FEB _______ 569 _ RodneyS MAR ______ 561 _ so_whats_happening and wxdude64 tied APR _______ 638 _ BKViking _________ snowfall contest winner RJay (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY) MAY _______ 700 _ Tom _ (Normal 716 was actual winner) _ wxallannj 696 _ a close finish with different outcome relative to 1991-2020 normals announced during month JUN _______ 609 _ Roger Smith _______ first contest with 1991-2020 values used. JUL _______ 680 _ RodneyS _ Normal 686 was actual winner AUG _______736 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 630 _ RJay (629 DonS) __ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj (separate thread). OCT _______ 656 _ RJay (despite 1% late penalty) NOV _______ 685 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner DonSutherland1 DEC _______ 518 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner DonSutherland1 (7011) RodneyS (6927) __ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous year ... winner Roger Smith 16-3, RodneyS was 15-1, RJay at 12-0. 2022 __ The contest featured more regular appearances by Stormchaser Chuck who made eight appearances; George001 entered DEC to enter snowfall contest, and added temperatures. The highlight of the year was probably the highest annual totals to date. RodneyS had a very good second half of the year. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 682 _ wxdude64 FEB _______ 690 _ DonSutherland1 MAR ______ 756 _ Tom APR _______ 676 _ RJay _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY) MAY _______660 _ DonSutherland1 _ (RJay 658 after 1% late penalty) JUN _______ 718 _ Roger Smith JUL _______ 728 _ so_whats_happening AUG _______682 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 730 _ RodneyS ____ seasonal max contest winner RJay OCT _______ 670 _ RodneyS NOV _______ 618 _ BKViking ____ Four Seasons winner Rodney with DonSutherland1 only two points back iso DEC _______ 740 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner Rodney S (7690) ... 2nd wxdude64 _ 7488 ... 3rd DonS _ 7462 (best totals in report so far) ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ (swh 11/12 contests, prorated score would be 7509). __ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous two years ... winner Roger Smith 16-7, RodneyS was 12-2, Stormchaser Chuck from 8/12 contests made a good score of 9.5-1. (unlike previous reports 2022 includes a reduction for ties, comparable numbers are 18-7, 14-2, 10-1.) 2023 __ The current contest year will be fully reported going forward and then this entire report will be moved to end of DEC thread. Stormchaser Chuck has continued to enter a few but not all contests, and swh has been somewhat occasional so far at 7/11 to NOV. Rhino16 became a new regular forecaster in March. Rainsucks and Terpeast have each entered one contest. Tom missed March due to injury and is doing a great job of gradually catching up to the pack (already past your host). month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 554 _ DonSutherland1 FEB _______ 674 _ Stormchaser Chuck __ RJay 657 MAR ______ 513 _ DonSutherland1 APR _______ 652 _ wxdude64 _______ snowfall contest winner Scotty Lightning MAY _______700 _ tied wxallannj, hudsonvalley21 _ Consensus actually won with 720 JUN _______ 636 _ RodneyS JUL _______ 746 _ wxallannj AUG _______722 _ DonSutherland1 SEP _______ 750 _ RodneyS OCT _______690 _ Roger Smith _ (so_whats_happening 687 lost 7 pts to late pen) NOV _______ 656 _ Rhino16 _____ wxallannj 648 _____ Don S wins four seasons contest, wxallannj second DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _________________________ RJay (18-1) wins extreme forecast contest ______________________________________________________ Don S wins annual contest (7399), wxallannj second (7170) Summary of contest wins, best scores 2014 to 2023 By end of 2023, 120 contests and 10 years of contests are now complete. This table will be updated into 2024 contest year. For each element scored, +field means additional wins only against current eleven regular players (not including Stormchaser Chuck or Rhino16), and that format also exists for last three groups (winter snowfall, summer max, extreme forecasts, four seasons _ nine years tracked) but no headings identify add-on values. A score of 0.5 indicates a tied result except for a conversion to best against current field from a tied win. Best monthly score over ten years is shown in brackets beside forecaster name. Wins in 2013 not counted in table, as formats were different. RodneyS won contest in 2013. FORECASTER _____ Wins (Mo) _+field__ total ___ Wins (Yr)_+field_total _ Snow _ Summer _ Extreme _ Four Seasons DonSutherland1 (802) __ 21 _____ 8.5 ___29.5 ______ 3 _____ 1 ____ 4 ______ 1 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 2.5, 1, 3.5 __ RodneyS (794) __________19 ______ 4 _____23 _______ 3 _____ 0 ____ 3 ______2,1,3 ___ 1,2,3 ___ 0,1.5,1.5 ___ 4 ____ Roger Smith (808) ______14.5 ____ 2.5 ___ 17.0 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 6 ________ 0 ____ RJay (778) ______________ 11 ______ 3 _____14________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 1 ______ 2,0.5,2.5__0.5, 0, 0.5 __ wxallannj (770) __________7.5 ______3 ____ 10.5 ______0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 2 _______ 0 ________ 1 ____ wxdude64 (792) _________6.5_____ 0.5____ 7.0 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0,1,1 _____ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Midlo Snow Maker (746) __5 ______ --_____ 5 _______ 0 _____--_____ 0 _______ 1 _______0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ BKViking (744) ___________4.5 _____ 2.5 ___7.0 ______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______0,1,1 ______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Scotty L (SD) __ (744) ____ 4 ______ 0 _____ 4 _______ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ______ 1 _______ 1 ________ 0 ________ 0 ____ Maxim (698) ______________ 3 ______ --_____ 3 _______ 0 _____--______ 0 ______ 0 ______ 0.5 ______ 0 _______ 0 ____ so_whats_happening(728)_2.5*_____0 ____2.5*_______ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Tom (756) _________________ 2 ______ 1 _____ 3 ________ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0, 1, 1 ___ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Damage in Tolland (714) __ 2 ______ -- ____ 2 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 1 ________ 2 ________ 0 ____ rainsucks (725) ___________ 2 ______ --_____ 2 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Stebo (712) _______________ 2 ______ --_____ 2 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ hudsonvalley21 (794) _____ 1 ______ 1.5____ 2.5 ______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Mallow (810) ______________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______1.5 _______0 ________ 0 ____ StormchaserChuck (724) __1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Isotherm (760) _____________1 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 1 _____ --_____ 1 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 1 ____ OHweather (754) __________1 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Absolute humidity _________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ ksammut (774) ____________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Snoski14 ___________________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Mercurial ___________________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0______ --_____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Orangeburg Wx (682) ______ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Yoda (690) _________________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ CPick79 (N of Pike) ________0.5 ____ -- ____ 0.5 _______ 0 _____ -- _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ mikehobbyst ________________1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Rhino16 _____________________1 _______--_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ CCM ________________________0 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ * so_whats_happening had a higher raw score by four points than Oct 2023 contest winner Roger S but 1% late penalties on seven of nine reduced it to three points lower. (following not counted against wins above) Consensus (756) ___________ 2 Normal (720) _______________ 4 Note: Best scores 810 Mallow and 808 Roger Smith, also hudsonvalley21 (794) occurred in same month (June 2014). blazes556, not a monthly winner at any point, scored 778. April 2014 also produced notably good scores, DonS 802 and Mallow 798, and goobagooba, despite never winning a month, had a score of 772 (also 756 in June 2014). Forecasters with no listed high score have not broken 720 so far and a later search will hopefully uncover actual high scores, also cannot confirm some of lower entries for high score. Will continue this project to completion later in 2023, in time to move it to end of annual 2023 roundup. Somewhat sadly, I can see the field of forecasters slowly reducing to the current core, and you wonder if some are still active at all, but it is what it is. UPDATED for DEC 2023 and FOUR SEASONS, ANNUAL and EXTREME FORECASTS 2023

So, I do need to check one or two details, for instance IAH is not confirmed yet, and DCA is an estimate despite a final CF6 report with 31st shown as missing data (but a daily climate report suggests a higher eventual anomaly than 3.8 as shown in CF6. It won't affect scoring to any great extent and I believe we can safely say congrats to Don Sutherland for another winning effort in 2023, and also good work wxallannj who did everything possible to overtake at the end ... also well done to hudsonvalley21 who got in ahead of consensus, and RJay for a solid year and a win in the extreme forecast section. I will post a bit more in a day or two and those minor scoring issues will be resolved in a later edit of what you see now. I will also update the contest historical report now in the Sep thread, and eventually bring it over to here. (update _ Jan 1st 21z _ IAH now updated, DCA still includes one missing day, not sure why as 31st climate data appears complete. But scores would all go up or down by same amount for any eventual DCA scoring)

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JANUARY - DECEMBER 2023 ---- >>>> === === Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS 1 DonSutherland1 __________ 810 _728 _ 790 __2328 __900 _910 _820 __2628__4956 __849 _732 _872 __2453 ____7399 2 wxallannj _________________ 795 _760 _ 795__ 2350 __905 _934 _718__ 2557 __4907 __793 _740 _730 __ 2263 ____7170 3 hudsonvalley21 ___________783 _696 _ 781 __2260 __890 _839 _757 __ 2486 __4746 __684 _602 _ 909 __ 2195 ____6941 ___ Consensus _____________ 763 _708 _ 771 __ 2242__ 875 _806 _767 __2448 __4690 __ 687 _647 _ 856 __2190 ____6880 4 RJay ______________________728 _698 _ 696 __2122 __ 835 _810 _818__ 2463 __4585 __ 659 _ 721 _ 857 __ 2237 ____ 6822 5 RodneyS __________________756 _716 _ 766 __2238 __ 731 _685 _806 __2222 __4460 __ 749 _ 564 _ 856 __ 2169 ____6629 6 wxdude64 ________________714 _729 _ 672 __2115 __ 623 _834 _708 __ 2165 __4280 __ 747 _ 658 _ 818 __ 2223 ____6503 7 Scotty Lightning __________ 695 _686 _720 __2101 __ 753 _765 _718 __ 2236 __4337 __ 558 _ 474 _ 696 __ 1728 ____6065 ... pro-rated scores are added in brackets for most below this point in the table ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... scores _ pro-rated to 12 8 Tom (11/12) ________________707 _642 _681 __2030 __638 _680 _702 __2020 __4050 __644 _502 _735 __1881 _____5931 (6472) 9 Roger Smith _______________658 _562 _566 __1786 __617 _591 _750 __ 1958 __ 3744__ 599 _662 _876 __2137 ____ 5881 10 BKViking (11/12) __________682 _614 _687 __ 1983 __753 _660 _701 __2114 __ 4097 __515 _546 _712 __1773 ____ 5870 (6404) ___ Normal __________________ 630 _612 _578 __1820 __ 642 _684 _592 __1918 __ 3738 __578 _412 _736 __1726 ____ 5464 so_whats_happening (8/12)_ 493 _437 _468 __ 1398 __540 _500 _497 __1537 __ 2935 __ 415 _448 _567 __1430 ____4365 (6546) Rhino16 (7/12) _______________490 _510 _502 __ 1502 __546 _526 _292 __1364 __ 2866 __ 395 _302 _504 __1201 ____ 4067 (6972) Stormchaser Chuck (4/12)__ 251 _272 _268 ___791 __ 341 _ 174 _ 224 __ 739 __ 1530 __284 _300 _334 ___918 ____ 2448 (7344) ... ... ... Tom's unimproved score is still (just) ahead of Roger Smith and 180 points below Scotty L ... ... ... ... Tom's pro-rated score is between 6th and 7th place above in the scoring table (just below wxdude64). ... ... ... BKViking's pro-rated score is just below Tom's and gross score just below Roger Smith. ... ... ... Stormchaser Chuck's pro-rated score is between 1st and 2nd, below only contest leader Don Sutherland1 and a little above 2nd place wxallannj. ... ... ... so_whats_happening has a pro-rated score between 5th and 6th a little higher than pro-rated scores for Tom and BKViking. ... ... ... rhino16 has a pro-rated score between 2nd and 3rd just in front of hudsonvalley21 ..................................... ...... Terpeast (1/12) _____________ 62 _ 44 _ 34 ____ 140 ___84 _ 86 _ 26 ____ 196 ___ 336 __ 10 __ 76 __ 60 ___ 146 ____ 482 (5784) rainsucks (1/12) ____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 ___ 232 ____ 456 (5472) - - - - - ___ Persistence ____________567 _450 _512 __1529 __720 _773 _690 __2183 ___3712 __ 484 _685 _612 __1781 ____5493 _______________________________________________________ Persistence virtually tied Normal, and scores were below all forecasters (pro-rated). Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) ^ shared with two other forecasters for one month (if applied to Normal, tied two forecast contest entrants) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____3*___ 1* ___ 0____4 ___ 1 ___ 4*___ 4^___3*___ 2 ____3 _ Jan,Mar,Aug wxallannj __________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2 ____4***__3*____1 ___ 2 ___ 3*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 2*___4* _ May(t),July, Nov,Dec hudsonvalley21 ____________2*____ 2*____ 1 ___ 1*____ 0^____1 ____1* ___0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____1* _ May(t) ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May RJay ______________________ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___3**___4 ___ 2 ___ 2*___ 0___ 4**^__ 1___ 1*____0 wxdude64 _________________1^____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 1 ____1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Apr RodneyS __________________2*____ 1 ____ 2*___ 2 ____ 2*____ 1 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___3*___2 ___ 2* ___3 ___ 2 _ Jun,Sep Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom (10/11) ________________3*^___0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 2*___ 2* ___ 2*____2**___ 1 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Oct BKViking (10/11) ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ____0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*^___2 ___1 ____ 0 ___ Normal _________________1^ ____ 3 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 Rhino16 (7/11) _____________2^____ 0 ____ 1*___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Nov so_whats_happening (7/11) _0 ____ 0____ 2*___ 0 ____ 0 ____0____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0^ (Oct) Stormchaser Chuck (4/11)__2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Feb Terpeast (1/11) ____________ 1*____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ____0 rainsucks (1/11) ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ (so_whats_happening has a top score for October, before 1% penalty transferred it to Roger Smith. Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY _ FINAL REPORT 2023 86 of 108 forecasts qualify, 53 of them for warmest, and 33 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2, June 1-8, July 4-2, Aug 4-3, Sep 1-3, Oct 5-1, Nov 4-3, Dec 9-0 ... 19 of 77 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those are a shared loss. FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _ Jun _Jul _Aug _Sep _Oct _Nov _Dec ___ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 1-0 _4-0 _2*-0 _1-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 ___ 18-1 ______16.0 - 1.0 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1-0 _2-0 _2-0___ 13-1 ______12.5 - 1.0 wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 2-0_ 1*-0_5-0 __12-3 _____10.5 - 2.0 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 _ 4*-1 _0-1 _ 1*-1 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0___ 11-3 ______10.0 - 2 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*_ 0-0 _1*-0 _2*-0_0-0 _2**0_2-0_1-0 ___11-1 ______ 8.5 - 0.5 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 0-1 _ --- __--- _ ---- ___9-4 ______ 8.5 - 4.0 Rhino16 _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- -- _-- - _ ---- _ --- _ 2*^-0_3-0 _ ---_2*-0 _--- ___7-0 _____ 5.33 - 0 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1 _2^-1 _0-2 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0___5-5 _____ 3.83 - 5.0 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0_0-0 _0-0___5-0 ______3.5 - 0.0 ___ Normal ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* _0-1 _0-0 _0-0 __ 5-3 _____ 4.5 - 2.5 Scotty Lightning _____ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 ___ 4-2 _____ 4.0 - 1.5 Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 ___ 3-0 _____ 1.83 - 0 BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _--- _ 0-0 _0-0 ___ 2-0 _____ 1.5 - 0 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ ---- _---- _---- __ 1-0 ______0.5 - 0 Terpeast _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- --_ -- - _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ ----__ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_-- -- _ -- - _ 0-0 __ --- _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 ______ 0.5 - 1 ===========================================

Still in 2023 here and it still sucks.

-0.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.2 _ +1.0 _ -1.0 _ +0.9 _ +3.5 _ +3.8 _ +4.5

Seventeen people believed there would be more snow than I did -- in itself, some kind of new record. Usually it's closer to four or five maybe. I would probably take a few lower now just because we're still at zero and I thought Dec could produce a few inches, but otherwise, the pattern looks to be evolving in a good direction. Anyway, we are stuck with the original guesses, so over-performers are welcome.

It's probably no coincidence but just as this improved look to models began, the warmest Pacific air started to move north through my part of the world instead of east into the prairies. That opens up the arctic where legitimate cold is starting to develop finally, and it has a chance to replace the Pacific flow at least over the northern half of the lower 48 (east of the Rockies). So while the details remain subject to ebb and flow, I believe the pattern is improving steadily and can support a return to winter in the east. Once it starts it could lock in for a while, pattern changes have been slow for a while now, and it would be fair play to see a long-duration cold spell replace what has been about four or five weeks of mild weather based on dominant Pacific flows.

If you wanted to see trends in graphical form, this is a log of the coldest winter months at YCB in each decade; all ten cases are shown. Coldest calendar months of winters since 1940-41 at Cambridge Bay Decade ________-39.0 _-38.5_-38.0 _-37.5_-37.0 _-36.5_-36.0 _-35.5_-35.0 _-34.5_-34.0 _-33.5_-33.0 _-32.5_-32.0 _-31.5_-31.0 _-30.5_-30.0 _-29.5_-29.0 C (-30C = -22F) 1941-50 ____ 5432X0987654321 X9876543X10987X543210 9876543210 X87m54X21X98XX54321098765432109876X4321098765432109876A432109876543210 A=1940 1951-60 ____ 54X210987X43X109876543XX09m7X4310 98X65432109X765432109X765432109876X43210 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210 1961-70 ____ 543210 987654X21X98XX543210XmX64X098765432X09X7654321X98765432109876543210 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210 1971-80 ____ 543210 9X7643X10 9876543210 X8765432109XX65432m0987XXXX21098765432109876543210 9876 54321098X65432109876 5432 1098 7654 3210 1981-90 ____ 5432109876543X109876X32109876X432109876543XXmX10X87654321098764321X987643210 987654XX21098765432109876 5432 1098 7654 3210 1991-2000 _ 543210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98765XX2109X7654321X9876X432109m76543XX10 XX76543X10987654321098765432109876543210 2001-10 ____543210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98X654321XXX76X43210987m54321098X6543X10 98X654321098765432109876X43210987654321X 2011-20 ____543210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98765 432X09876543210 98 76 54 3210 98765432XX9876X4321XmXXX6543X10X87654321098765432109876543210 2021-23 ___ 543210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98765 432 1 0 9 876543210 9X765432109876 543210 9876X43X10 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210 (I will add 2024-2030 going forward, if the discussion by 2028 is long, I will reproduce the graph at a later point in the thread) ... a few of the data points above are identical but are shown 0.1 apart. ... to remove graph discontinuity, unused numerals are sometimes removed, 5 or closest available is usually removed, to align data points ... median values are indicated by red symbols __ m __ ... it should be noted that 1940 (not in graph as X ) had a higher value (-29.5) indicated by A

I would say the changes in Canada's arctic climate are mostly to be seen in a longer "summer" interval, the snow-free portion of the year seems to be about two weeks longer at each end of the season in recent decades (let's say it has shifted from previous mid-June to mid-August to all of June, July and August in rough terms). The winters are not quite as severe on average and you do see more frequent (albeit brief) incursions of mild air masses, especially in the eastern arctic. I don't think we have reached a tipping point yet but of course this study is only based on weather and not sea ice which may be changing its distribution at a faster rate. Also to the point about Antarctica, southern hemisphere weather patterns do not always move in lock-step with northern hemisphere, so it would be quite possible to find different trends in the northern and southern polar temperature trends, or sea ice trends (not to say we have found those, but it would not surprise me if trends were not carbon copies). One trend I am anticipating but do not see starting yet, would be for greater snowfall in Canada's arctic if winters were to get significantly warmer. So far the increase at the locations studied is on the order of 2 C deg, and since they started off from very low values like -34 C, it is still a very cold and dry winter climate. Almost all of the snow that accumulates at Cambridge Bay occurs in October and November, then a second snowy interval can occur (less regularly) in late April to early June before the entire accumulation melts. Further east it's similar but you do see some ebb and flow in snow depth during mid-winter from a combination of milder spells and outer edges of Atlantic snowstorms. I should look at Iqualuit (Frobisher Bay) on Baffin Island to see if trends there show significant differences. It is a bit closer to the Atlantic and possibly could show different trends.

I'm active on UK forum net-weather so over there, 2023 will be the second warmest year, last year (2022) was warmest, in the very long series of Central England Temperature data (1659-2023). Last year was 11.1 C, this year will be rounding off at 11.1 also but it's generally thought they will assign it second place based on second decimal values. 2014 is third in their records, and 2006 is fourth. It's a very similar record of steadily rising averages since about 1980. One of the warmer past intervals was around 1724 to 1739, years that are mostly a blank for North American record keeping. Coldest intervals were 1675 to 1709 (maunder minimum) and 1795 to 1823 (Dalton minimum). 1870s to 1910s were also quite cold. Another similar feature of 2023 in UK (and Ireland) was despite overall warmth, not a particularly hot core of summer, with max temps around 90F in early to mid- June and September (which was their month to set a new record high average of 17.0 C). This past month in the UK started very cold but soon overcame that. You may recall an episode with heavy snow in Bavaria, the UK got a bit of snow then and sub-zero (C) temps, but the month warmed up quickly and averaged 7.0 C which will be around 15th warmest (like eastern US, 2015 is well out ahead of the rest, but unlike eastern US, most of the top ten Decembers are way back in their records, 1974 and 1934 are second and third, and so e of their top ten are in the 18th century.) Also looking a bit closer to NYC, Toronto will record its fourth warmest year (possibly fifth, waiting for final Dec data), and also like NYC, a warm year but without any notable summer heat, annual max of only 91F (33C) occurred on June 2nd and again Sep 4th. Their long-term average for that statistic is 96F or about 35.5 C. I have tables of comparative NYC and Toronto data in my study in climate change section, quite often ranks will be similar, but you do find a few months that turn out relatively warmer at one or the other location in certain patterns. July 1916 and July 1921 were both considerably warmer (relative to normals) at Toronto, but periods in 1979 and 2003 (among others) were relatively warmer at NYC, storm tracks must have been between the two locations frequently in such years. This trend to bland, not-cold weather is not exactly what was feared from global warming, it's more like global blanding. I don't prefer it, but perhaps this is going to be the new normal, and weather forums will slowly empty out as people take up new hobbies, as tracking this sort of "muck" as they like to call it in the UK is a borefest of epic proportions. (rant over) (#make it stop)

Okay, I've done a bit of work on winter severity index. The index is designed to score zero to 100 although it could go higher than 100. As snow is probably about 2/3 of the contribution to a winter's perceived severity, the temperature index is designed to run from 0 to 40, and the snowfall index from 0 to 80. Temperature index is derived from D-J-F mean (in C deg), with 4.0 C being zero, and every rounded 0.2 C below that level being worth one point. The coldest winter (1917-18) scored 40, second coldest 1880-1881 and 1976-77 scored 35. Four winters scored zero. For snowfall the index value is the number of total inches, over the season, rounded to nearest integer. This part of the severity index scored from 2 (last winter) to 77 (1995-96). I flagged * cases where more than 1/3 of winter snowfall came after meteorological winter ended, but this qualifier means little in terms of perception since people expect snow to fall into early spring anyway. The winter moving furthest up the severity index on basis of its march-april snowfalls was probably 1895-1896 which had only 29 index points at end of Feb (rank t124) and ended up with 63 to rank t37. (of 155 winters) The index values are shown both in chronological order and in rank order. Ties for rank order are listed in their chronological order. One could probably tinker with this method and improve it, for example, the zero temp index for 2015-16 could be raised to 2 or even 5 because of a period of below normal temps in Feb, that was not matched in equally futile winters by average alone. Outliers include 1948-1949, a relatively mild winter with a large snowfall total (most of it in Dec 1948), and several cold dry winters like 1962-63 which may be recalled as more severe simply because of persistent cold. It has not been too bad a run since 1992. The past 31 winters include ranks 1, 6, t9, t11, t16, t16, t24, 28, t45, t45, t53 _ eleven of 31 were in top sixty. Of course the other end of the table is well represented also, in a similar range we find ranks 155, 154, 152, 151, 150, 147, 146, t138, t133, t133, t124, t119, t110, t107, t107, t96, for a total of 16 of 31. Only four winters could be considered near average in winter severity (in past 31). Winter Severity Index (1869 to 2023) Winter _______DJF (C) _snow" _ Index values 1868-1869 ____ 1.54 _ 30.5 ____ 12 _ 31 __ 43** 1869-1870 ____ 1.39 _ 27.8 ____ 13 _ 28 __ 41* (29) 1870-1871 ____-0.63 _ 33.1 ____ 23 _ 33 __ 56 1871-1872 ____ -1.50 _ 12.1 ____ 28 _ 12 __ 40 1872-1873 ____-2.07 _ 60.2 ____30 _ 60 __ 90 1873-1874 ____ 1.11 __ 37.7 ____ 14 _ 38 __ 52 1874-1875 ____-2.45 _ 56.4 ____32 _ 56 __ 88 1875-1876 ____ 1.17 __ 18.8 ____ 14 _ 19 __ 33 1876-1877 ____-1.18 _ 40.3 ____ 26 _ 40 __ 66 1877-1878 ____ 0.72 __ 8.1 _____ 16 __ 8 __ 24 1878-1879 ____-1.54 _ 35.8 ____ 28 _ 36 __ 64 1879-1880 ____ 3.28 _ 22.7 _____ 4 _ 23 __ 27* (19) 1880-1881 ____-2.92 _ 35.6 ____ 35 _ 36 __71 1881-1882 ____ 1.27 __ 31.4 ____ 14 _ 31 __ 45 1882-1883 ____-1.95 _ 44.1 ____ 30 _ 44 __74 1883-1884 ____-1.08 _ 43.1 ____ 25 _ 43 __68 1884-1885 ____-2.01 _ 34.4 ____ 30 _ 34 __64 1885-1886 ____-1.21 _ 20.8 ____ 26 _ 21 __ 47 1886-1887 ____-1.08 _ 31.9 ____ 25 _ 32 __ 57 1887-1888 ____-1.93 _ 45.5 ____ 30 _ 46 __ 76* (54) 1888-1889 ____ 0.31 _ 16.5 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35 1889-1890 ____ 3.51 _ 24.4 _____ 2 _ 24 __ 26* (9) 1890-1891 ____ 0.61 _ 28.8 ____ 17 _ 29 __ 46 1891-1892 ____ 1.87 _ 25.3 ____ 11 _ 25 __ 36* (23) 1892-1893 ____-2.18 _ 49.4 ____ 31 _ 49 __ 80 1893-1894 ____-0.07 _ 39.2 ____ 20 _ 39 __ 59 1894-1895 ____-1.18 _ 27.0 ____ 26 _ 27 __ 53 1895-1896 ____ 0.50 _ 46.0 ____ 17 _ 46 __ 63* (29) 1896-1897 ____ 0.21 _ 45.6 ____ 19 _ 46 __ 65 1897-1898 ____ 2.28 _ 21.2 _____ 9 _ 21 __ 30 1898-1899 ____-0.59 _ 55.9 ____ 23 _ 56 __ 79 1899-1900 ____ 0.60 _ 13.6 ____ 17 _ 14 __ 31 1900-1901 ____-0.44 __ 9.1 ____ 22 __ 9 __ 31 1901-1902 ____-0.30 _ 28.3 ____ 22 _ 28 __ 50 1902-1903 ____-0.28 _ 28.8 ____ 21 _ 29 __ 50 1903-1904 ____-2.86 _ 32.4 ____ 34 _ 32 __ 66 1904-1905 ____-2.45 _ 48.2 ____ 32 _ 48 __ 80 1905-1906 ____ 2.31 _ 20.0 _____ 8 _ 20 __ 28* (16) 1906-1907 ____-0.49 _ 53.2 ____ 22 _ 53 __ 75 1907-1908 ____ 0.40 _ 33.2 ____ 18 _ 33 __ 51 1908-1909 ____ 2.29 _ 20.4 _____ 9 _ 20 __ 29 1909-1910 ____-0.76 _ 27.2 ____ 24 _ 27 __ 51 1910-1911 ____-0.07 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44 1911-1912 ____-1.16 _ 29.5 ____ 26 _ 30 __ 56 1912-1913 ____ 2.45 _ 15.3 _____ 8 _ 15 __ 23 1913-1914 ____-0.48 _ 40.5 ____ 22 _ 41 __ 63 1914-1915 _____0.71 _ 28.8 ____ 16 _ 29 __ 45* (25) 1915-1916 ____-0.14 _ 50.7 ____ 21 _ 51 __ 72* (43) 1916-1917 ____-0.55 _ 50.7 ____ 23 _ 51 __ 74 1917-1918 ____-3.90 _ 34.5 ____40 _ 35 __ 75 1918-1919 ____ 2.17 __ 3.8 _____ 9 __ 4 ___ 13* (10) 1919-1920 ____-2.97 _ 47.6 ____35 _ 48 __ 83 1920-1921 ____ 1.14 _ 18.6 _____ 14 _ 19 __ 33 1921-1922 ____-0.81 _ 27.8 ____ 24 _ 28 __ 52 1922-1923 ____-1.65 _ 60.4 ____28 _ 60 __ 88 1923-1924 ____ 0.91 _ 27.5 ____ 15 _ 28 __ 43* (31) 1924-1925 ____ 0.30 _ 29.6 ____ 18 _ 30 __ 48 1925-1926 ____-0.50 _ 32.4 ____23 _ 32 __ 55 1926-1927 ____-0.46 _ 22.3 ____22 _ 22 __ 44 1927-1928 ____ 0.93 _ 14.5 ____ 15 _ 15 __ 30 1928-1929 ____ 1.00 _ 13.8 ____ 15 _ 14 __ 29 1929-1930 ____ 1.37 _ 13.6 ____ 13 _ 14 __ 27 1930-1931 ____ 0.41 __ 11.6 ____ 18 _ 12 __ 30 1931-1932 ____ 3.90 __ 5.3 _____ 0 __ 5 ___ 5 1932-1933 ____ 2.64 _ 27.0 _____ 7 _ 27 __ 34 1933-1934 ____-2.21 _ 52.0 ____ 31 _ 52 __ 83 1934-1935 ____-1.06 _ 33.8 ____ 25 _ 34 __ 59 1935-1936 ____-2.64 _ 33.2 ____ 33 _ 33 __ 66 1936-1937 ____ 2.66 _ 15.6 _____ 7 _ 16 __ 23 1937-1938 ____ 0.68 _ 15.1 ____ 17 _ 15 __ 32* (25) 1938-1939 ____ 1.29 _ 37.3 ____ 14 _ 37 __ 51 1939-1940 ____-0.82 _ 25.7 ____ 24 _ 26 __ 50 1940-1941 ____-0.13 _ 39.0 ____ 21 _ 39 __ 60* (41) 1941-1942 ____-0.20 _ 11.3 ____ 21 _ 11 __ 32 1942-1943 ____-0.61 _ 29.5 ____ 23 _ 30 __ 53 1943-1944 ____ 0.06 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44* (31) 1944-1945 ____-1.55 _ 27.1 ____ 28 _ 27 __ 45 1945-1946 ____-0.55 _ 31.4 ____ 23 _ 31 __ 54 1946-1947 ____ 0.86 _ 30.6 ____ 16 _ 31 __ 47 1947-1948 ____-1.79 _ 63.9 ____ 29 _ 64 __ 93 1948-1949 ____ 2.91 _ 42.0 _____ 5 _ 42 __ 47 1949-1950 ____ 2.34 _ 14.0 _____ 8 _ 14 __ 22 1950-1951 ____ 1.40 __ 9.3 ____ 13 __ 9 __ 22 1951-1952 ____ 1.98 _ 19.7 ____ 10 _ 20 __ 30* (23) 1952-1953 ____ 2.61 _ 15.1 _____ 7 _ 15 __ 22 1953-1954 ____ 2.20 _ 15.8 _____ 9 _ 16 __ 25 1954-1955 ____ 0.29 _ 11.5 ____ 19 _ 12 __ 31 1955-1956 ____-0.37 _ 33.5 ____ 22 _ 34 __ 56 1956-1957 ____ 1.18 __ 21.9 ____ 14 _ 22 __ 36 1957-1958 ____-0.15 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66* (49) 1958-1959 ____-1.43 _ 13.0 ____ 27 _ 13 __ 40 1959-1960 ____ 1.54 _ 39.2 ____ 12 _ 39 __ 51* (32) 1960-1961 ____-1.00 _ 54.7 ____ 25 _ 55 __ 80 1961-1962 ____-0.18 _ 18.1 _____ 21 _ 18 __ 39 1962-1963 ____-2.03 _ 16.3 ____ 30 _ 16 __ 46 1963-1964 ____-0.19 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66 1964-1965 ____-0.16 _ 24.4 ____ 21 _ 24 __ 45 1965-1966 ____ 1.28 _ 21.4 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35 1966-1967 ____ 0.27 _ 51.5 ____ 19 _ 52 __ 71* (54) 1967-1968 ____-1.31 _ 19.5 ____ 27 _ 20 __ 47 1968-1969 ____-0.40 _ 30.2 ____ 22 _ 30 __ 52 1969-1970 ____-1.73 _ 25.6 ____ 29 _ 26 __ 55 1970-1971 ____-0.88 _ 15.5 ____ 24 _ 16 __ 40 1971-1972 ____ 1.09 _ 22.9 ____ 15 _ 23 __ 38 1972-1973 ____ 0.94 __ 2.8 ____ 15 __ 3 __ 18 1973-1974 ____ 0.85 _ 23.5 ____ 16 _ 24 __ 40 1974-1975 ____ 2.05 _ 13.1 ____ 10 _ 13 __ 23 1975-1976 ____ 0.33 _ 17.3 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35 1976-1977 ____-2.95 _ 24.5 ____ 35 _ 25 __ 60 1977-1978 ____-1.94 _ 50.7 ____ 30 _ 51 __ 81 1978-1979 ____-0.63 _ 29.4 ____ 23 _ 29 __ 52 1979-1980 ____ 0.89 _ 12.8 ____ 16 _ 13 __ 29 1980-1981 ____-0.68 _ 19.4 ____ 23 _ 19 __ 42* (33) 1981-1982 ____-0.75 _ 24.6 ____ 24 _ 25 __ 49* (39) 1982-1983 ____ 2.18 _ 27.2 _____ 9 _ 27 __ 36 1983-1984 ____ 0.70 _ 25.4 ____ 16 _ 25 __ 41* (29) 1984-1985 ____ 1.35 _ 24.1 ____ 13 _ 24 __ 37 1985-1986 ____-0.30 _ 13.0 ____ 22 _ 13 __ 35 1986-1987 ____ 0.48 _ 23.1 ____ 18 _ 23 __ 41 1987-1988 ____ 0.38 _ 19.1 ____ 18 _ 19 __ 37 1988-1989 ____ 1.09 __ 8.1 ____ 15 __ 8 __ 23 1989-1990 ____ 0.95 _ 13.4 ____ 15 _ 13 __ 28 1990-1991 ____ 2.88 _ 24.9 _____ 6 _ 25 __ 31 1991-1992 ____ 1.81 _ 12.6 _____ 11 _ 13 __ 24* (15) 1992-1993 ____ 0.57 _ 24.5 ____ 17 _ 25 __ 42* (30) 1993-1994 ____-1.57 _ 53.4 ____ 28 _ 53 __ 81 1994-1995 ____ 1.74 _ 11.8 _____ 11 _ 12 __ 23 1995-1996 ____-0.95 _ 75.6 ____ 25 _ 76 _ 101 1996-1997 ____ 2.14 _ 10.0 _____ 9 _ 10 __ 19 1997-1998 ____ 3.14 __ 5.5 _____ 4 __ 6 __ 10 *(5) 1998-1999 ____ 2.60 _ 12.7 _____ 7 _ 13 __ 20* (15) 1999-2000 ____ 1.23 _ 16.3 ____ 14 _ 16 __ 30 2000-2001 ____-0.25 _ 35.0 ____ 21 _ 35 __ 56 2001-2002 ____ 4.20 __ 3.5 _____ 0 __ 4 ___ 4 2002-2003 ____-1.55 _ 49.3 ____ 28 _ 49 __ 77 2003-2004 ____-0.86 _ 42.6 ____ 24 _ 43 __ 67 2004-2005 ____ 0.79 _ 41.0 ____ 16 _ 41 __ 57 2005-2006 ____ 1.84 _ 40.0 ____ 11 _ 40 __ 51 2006-2007 ____ 1.36 _ 12.4 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25* (19) 2007-2008 ____ 1.35 _ 11.9 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25 2008-2009 ____ 0.14 _ 27.6 ____ 19 _ 28 __ 47* (39) 2009-2010 ____-0.08 _ 51.4 ____ 20 _ 51 __ 71 2010-2011 ____-0.64 _ 61.9 ____ 23 _ 62 __ 85 2011-2012 ____ 3.62 __ 7.4 _____ 2 __ 7 ___ 9 (6 excl Oct) 2012-2013 ____ 1.59 _ 26.1 ____ 12 _ 26 __ 38 2013-2014 ____-0.60 _ 57.4 ____23 _ 57 __ 80 2014-2015 ____-1.42 _ 50.3 ____27 _ 50 __ 77* (58) 2015-2016 ____ 3.90 _ 32.8 _____ 0 _ 33 __ 33 2016-2017 ____ 2.95 _ 30.2 _____ 5 _ 30 __ 35* (25) 2017-2018 ____ 0.96 _ 40.9 ____ 15 _ 41 __ 56* (39) 2018-2019 ____ 1.27 _ 20.5 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35* (25) 2019-2020 ____ 2.88 __ 4.8 _____ 6 __ 5 __ 11 2020-2021 ____ 1.16 _ 38.6 ____ 14 _ 39 __ 53 2021-2022 ____ 1.75 _ 17.9 ____ 11 _ 18 __ 29 2022-2023 ____ 3.92 __ 2.3 ____ 0 ___ 2 __ 2 ______________________________ * more than a third of snow was recorded mar-apr, figure in brackets was winter severity on mar 1st. In winter 1887-88, 22 of the 47 snow points came in mar, but soon after end of "winter" and in 1981 extra snow fell just about as soon as "winter" ended, so these qualifiers are not all of equal significance, in terms of later addition to winter severity. And it should be kept in mind, winters not flagged for this also get a few of their snowfall points in mar-apr. I noted the situation for 2011-12 (half of snowfall total fell in Oct) but I didn't look for any cases where a snowy Nov distorted the picture, figuring that a heavy Nov snowfall probably came with cold that was not part of the indexed cold and perhaps that was offset by Feb being war in some cases. ** a conservative estimate was made for Dec 1868 (no data) based on weather maps available, winter severity could be closer to 50 if estimates are too conservative, as Dec 1868 looked fairly cold and snowy. (the snow estimate was only 5", temperature estimate was -1.2 C) Winter Severity in Order Rank _ Winter _____ Temp _ Snow ____ Points __ TOTAL _01 __ 1995-1996 ____-0.95 _ 75.6 ____ 25 _ 76 _ 101 _02 __ 1947-1948 ____-1.79 _ 63.9 ____ 29 _ 64 __ 93 _03 __ 1872-1873 ____-2.07 _ 60.2 ____ 30 _ 60 __ 90 _04t__ 1874-1875 ____-2.45 _ 56.4 ____ 32 _ 56 __ 88 _04t__ 1922-1923 ____-1.65 _ 60.4 ____ 28 _ 60 __ 88 _06 __ 2010-2011 ____-0.64 _ 61.9 ____ 23 _ 62 __ 85 _07t__ 1919-1920 ____-2.97 _ 47.6 ____ 35 _ 48 __ 83 _07t__ 1933-1934 ____-2.21 _ 52.0 ____ 31 _ 52 __ 83 _09t__ 1977-1978 ____-1.94 _ 50.7 ____ 30 _ 51 __ 81 _09t__ 1993-1994 ____-1.57 _ 53.4 ____ 28 _ 53 __ 81 _11t__ 1892-1893 ____ -2.18 _ 49.4 ____ 31 _ 49 __ 80 _11t __ 1904-1905 ____-2.45 _ 48.2 ____ 32 _ 48 __ 80 _11t__ 1960-1961 ____ -1.00 _ 54.7 ____ 25 _ 55 __ 80 _11t__ 2013-2014 ____-0.60 _ 57.4 ____ 23 _ 57 __ 80 _15 __ 1898-1899 ____-0.59 _ 55.9 ____ 23 _ 56 __ 79 _16t__ 2002-2003 ____-1.55 _ 49.3 ____ 28 _ 49 __ 77 _16t__ 2014-2015 ____-1.42 _ 50.3 ____ 27 _ 50 __ 77* (58) _18 __ 1887-1888 ____-1.93 _ 45.5 ____ 30 _ 46 __ 76* (54) _19t__ 1906-1907 ____-0.49 _ 53.2 ____ 22 _ 53 __ 75 _19t__ 1917-1918 ____ -3.90 _ 34.5 ____ 40 _ 35 __ 75 _21t__ 1882-1883 ____-1.95 _ 44.1 ____ 30 _ 44 __ 74 _21t__ 1916-1917 ____-0.55 _ 50.7 ____ 23 _ 51 __ 74 _23 __ 1915-1916 ____ -0.14 _ 50.7 ____ 21 _ 51 __ 72* (43) _24t__ 1880-1881 ____-2.92 _ 35.6 ____ 35 _ 36 __ 71 _24t__ 1966-1967 ____ 0.27 _ 51.5 ____ 19 _ 52 __ 71* (54) _24t__ 2009-2010 ____-0.08 _ 51.4 ____ 20 _ 51 __ 71 _27 __ 1883-1884 ____ -1.08 _ 43.1 ____ 25 _ 43 __ 68 _28 __ 2003-2004 ____-0.86 _ 42.6 ____ 24 _ 43 __ 67 _29t__ 1876-1877 ____ -1.18 _ 40.3 ____ 26 _ 40 __ 66 _29t__ 1903-1904 ____-2.86 _ 32.4 ____ 34 _ 32 __ 66 _29t__ 1935-1936 ____-2.64 _ 33.2 ____ 33 _ 33 __ 66 _29t__ 1957-1958 ____ -0.15 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66* (49) _29t__ 1963-1964 ____-0.19 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66 _34 __ 1896-1897 ____ 0.21 _ 45.6 ____ 19 _ 46 __ 65 _35t__ 1878-1879 ____-1.54 _ 35.8 ____ 28 _ 36 __ 64 _35t__ 1884-1885 ____-2.01 _ 34.4 ____ 30 _ 34 __ 64 _37t__ 1895-1896 ____ 0.50 _ 46.0 ____ 17 _ 46 __ 63* (29) _37t__ 1913-1914 ____-0.48 _ 40.5 ____ 22 _ 41 __ 63* (42) _39t__ 1940-1941 ____-0.13 _ 39.0 ____ 21 _ 39 __ 60* (41) _39t__ 1976-1977 ____-2.95 _ 24.5 ____ 35 _ 25 __ 60 _41t__ 1893-1894 ____-0.07 _ 39.2 ____ 20 _ 39 __ 59 _41t__ 1934-1935 ____-1.06 _ 33.8 ____ 25 _ 34 __ 59 _43t__ 1886-1887 ____-1.08 _ 31.9 ____ 25 _ 32 __ 57 _43t__ 2004-2005 ____ 0.79 _ 41.0 ____ 16 _ 41 __ 57 _45t__ 1870-1871 ____-0.63 _ 33.1 ____ 23 _ 33 __ 56 _45t__ 1911-1912 ____ -1.16 __ 29.5 ____ 26 _ 30 __ 56 _45t__ 1955-1956 ____-0.37 _ 33.5 ____ 22 _ 34 __ 56 _45t__ 2000-2001 ____-0.25 _ 35.0 ____ 21 _ 35 __ 56 _45t__ 2017-2018 ____ 0.96 _ 40.9 ____ 15 _ 41 __ 56* (39) _50t__ 1925-1926 ____-0.50 _ 32.4 ____ 23 _ 32 __ 55 _50t__ 1969-1970 ____-1.73 _ 25.6 ____ 29 _ 26 __ 55 _52 __ 1945-1946 ____-0.55 _ 31.4 ____ 23 _ 31 __ 54 _53t__ 1894-1895 ____-1.18 __ 27.0 ____ 26 _ 27 __ 53 _53t__ 1942-1943 ____-0.61 _ 29.5 ____ 23 _ 30 __ 53 _53t__ 2020-2021 ____ 1.16 __ 38.6 ____ 14 _ 39 __ 53 _56t__ 1873-1874 _____ 1.11 __ 37.7 ____ 14 _ 38 __ 52 _56t__ 1921-1922 ____-0.81 _ 27.8 ____ 24 _ 28 __ 52 _56t__ 1968-1969 ____-0.40 _ 30.2 ____ 22 _ 30 __ 52 _56t__ 1978-1979 ____-0.63 _ 29.4 ____ 23 _ 29 __ 52 _60t__ 1907-1908 ____ 0.40 _ 33.2 ____ 18 _ 33 __ 51 _60t__ 1909-1910 ____-0.76 _ 27.2 ____ 24 _ 27 __ 51 _60t__ 1938-1939 ____ 1.29 _ 37.3 ____ 14 _ 37 __ 51 _60t__ 1959-1960 ____ 1.54 _ 39.2 ____ 12 _ 39 __ 51* (32) _60t__ 2005-2006 ____ 1.84 _ 40.0 ____ 11 _ 40 __ 51 _65t__ 1901-1902 ____-0.30 _ 28.3 ____ 22 _ 28 __ 50 _65t__ 1902-1903 ____-0.28 _ 28.8 ____ 21 _ 29 __ 50 _65t__ 1939-1940 ____-0.82 _ 25.7 ____ 24 _ 26 __ 50 _68 __ 1981-1982 ____-0.75 _ 24.6 ____ 24 _ 25 __ 49* (39) _69 __ 1924-1925 ____ 0.30 _ 29.6 ____ 18 _ 30 __ 48 _70t__ 1885-1886 ____-1.21 _ 20.8 ____ 26 _ 21 __ 47 _70t__ 1946-1947 ____ 0.86 _ 30.6 ____ 16 _ 31 __ 47 _70t__ 1948-1949 ____ 2.91 _ 42.0 _____ 5 _ 42 __ 47 _70t__ 1967-1968 ____-1.31 _ 19.5 ____ 27 _ 20 __ 47 _70t__ 2008-2009 ____ 0.14 _ 27.6 ____ 19 _ 28 __ 47* (39) _75t__ 1890-1891 ____ 0.61 _ 28.8 ____ 17 _ 29 __ 46 _75t__ 1962-1963 ____-2.03 _16.3 ____ 30 _ 16 __ 46 _77t__ 1881-1882 ____ 1.27 _ 31.4 ____ 14 _ 31 __ 45 _77t__ 1914-1915 ____ 0.71 _ 28.8 ____ 16 _ 29 __ 45* (25) _77t__ 1944-1945 ____-1.55 _ 27.1 ____ 28 _ 27 __ 45 _77t__ 1964-1965 ____-0.16 _ 24.4 ____ 21 _ 24 __ 45 _81t__ 1910-1911 ____ -0.07 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44 _81t__ 1926-1927 ____-0.46 _ 22.3 ____ 22 _ 22 __ 44 _81t__ 1943-1944 ____ 0.06 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44* (31) _84t__ 1868-1869 ____ 1.54 _ 30.5 ____ 12 _ 31 __ 43** _84t__ 1923-1924 ____ 0.91 _ 27.5 ____ 15 _ 28 __ 43* (31) _86t__ 1980-1981 ____-0.68 _ 19.4 ____ 23 _ 19 __ 42* (33) _86t__ 1992-1993 ____ 0.57 _ 24.5 ____ 17 _ 25 __ 42* (30) _88t__ 1869-1870 ____ 1.39 _ 27.8 ____ 13 _ 28 __ 41* (29) _88t__ 1983-1984 ____ 0.70 _ 25.4 ____ 16 _ 25 __ 41* (29) _88t__ 1986-1987 ____ 0.48 _ 23.1 ____ 18 _ 23 __ 41 _91t__ 1871-1872 ____ -1.50 _ 12.1 ____ 28 _ 12 __ 40 _91t__ 1958-1959 ____-1.43 _ 13.0 ____ 27 _ 13 __ 40 _91t__ 1970-1971 ____-0.88 _ 15.5 ____ 24 _ 16 __ 40 _91t__ 1973-1974 ____ 0.85 _ 23.5 ____ 16 _ 24 __ 40 _95 __ 1961-1962 ____ -0.18 _ 18.1 ____ 21 _ 18 __ 39 _96t__ 1971-1972 ____ 1.09 _ 22.9 ____ 15 _ 23 __ 38 _96t__ 2012-2013 ____ 1.59 _ 26.1 ____ 12 _ 26 __ 38 _98t__ 1984-1985 ____ 1.35 _ 24.1 ____ 13 _ 24 __ 37 _98t__ 1987-1988 ____ 0.38 _ 19.1 ____ 18 _ 19 __ 37 100t__ 1891-1892 ____ 1.87 _ 25.3 ____ 11 _ 25 __ 36* (23) 100t__ 1956-1957 ____ 1.18 _ 21.9 ____ 14 _ 22 __ 36 100t__ 1982-1983 ____ 2.18 _ 27.2 _____ 9 _ 27 __ 36 103t__ 1888-1889 ____ 0.31 _ 16.5 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35 103t__ 1965-1966 ____ 1.28 _ 21.4 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35 103t__ 1975-1976 ____ 0.33 _ 17.3 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35 103t__ 1985-1986 ____-0.30 _ 13.0 ____ 22 _ 13 __ 35 107t__ 2016-2017 ____ 2.95 _ 30.2 _____ 5 _ 30 __ 35* (25) 107t__ 2018-2019 ____ 1.27 _ 20.5 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35* (25) 109 __ 1932-1933 ____ 2.64 _ 27.0 _____ 7 _ 27 __ 34 110t__ 1875-1876 ____ 1.17 _ 18.8 ____ 14 _ 19 __ 33 110t__ 1920-1921 ____ 1.14 _ 18.6 ____ 14 _ 19 __ 33 110t__ 2015-2016 ____ 3.90 _ 32.8 _____ 0 _ 33 __ 33 113t__ 1937-1938 ____ 0.68 _ 15.1 ____ 17 _ 15 __ 32* (25) 113t__ 1941-1942 ____-0.20 _ 11.3 ____ 21 _ 11 __ 32 115t__ 1899-1900 ____ 0.60 _ 13.6 ____ 17 _ 14 __ 31 115t__ 1900-1901 ____-0.44 __ 9.1 ____ 22 __ 9 __ 31 115t__ 1954-1955 ____ 0.29 _ 11.5 ____ 19 _ 12 __ 31 115t__ 1990-1991 ____ 2.88 _ 24.9 _____ 6 _ 25 __ 31 119t__ 1897-1898 ____ 2.28 _ 21.2 _____ 9 _ 21 __ 30 119t__ 1927-1928 ____ 0.93 _ 14.5 ____ 15 _ 15 __ 30 119t__ 1930-1931 ____ 0.41 _ 11.6 ____ 18 __12 __ 30 119t__ 1951-1952 ____ 1.98 _ 19.7 ____ 10 _ 20 __ 30* (23) 119t__ 1999-2000 ____ 1.23 _ 16.3 ____ 14 _ 16 __ 30 124t__ 1908-1909 ____ 2.29 _ 20.4 _____9 _ 20 __ 29 124t__ 1928-1929 ____ 1.00 _ 13.8 ____ 15 _ 14 __ 29 124t__ 1979-1980 ____ 0.89 _ 12.8 ____ 16 _ 13 __ 29 124t__ 2021-2022 ____ 1.75 _ 17.9 ____ 11 _ 18 __ 29 128t__ 1905-1906 ____ 2.31 _ 20.0 _____ 8 _ 20 __ 28* (16) 128t__ 1989-1990 ____ 0.95 _ 13.4 ____ 15 _ 13 __ 28 130t__ 1879-1880 ____ 3.28 _ 22.7 _____ 4 _ 23 __ 27* (19) 130t__ 1929-1930 ____ 1.37 _ 13.6 ____ 13 _ 14 __ 27 132 __ 1889-1890 ____ 3.51 _ 24.4 _____ 2 _ 24 __ 26* (9) 133t__ 1953-1954 ____ 2.20 _ 15.8 _____ 9 _ 16 __ 25 133t__ 2006-2007 ____ 1.36 _ 12.4 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25* (19) 133t__ 2007-2008 ____ 1.35 _ 11.9 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25 136t__ 1877-1878 ____ 0.72 __ 8.1 ____ 16 ___ 8 __ 24 136t__ 1991-1992 ____ 1.81 _ 12.6 ____ 11 _ 13 __ 24* (15) 138t__ 1912-1913 ____ 2.45 _ 15.3 _____ 8 _ 15 __ 23 138t__ 1936-1937 ____ 2.66 _ 15.6 _____ 7 _ 16 __ 23 138t__ 1974-1975 ____ 2.05 _ 13.1 ____ 10 _ 13 __ 23 138t__ 1988-1989 ____ 1.09 __ 8.1 ____ 15 __ 8 __ 23 138t__ 1994-1995 ____ 1.74 _ 11.8 ____ 11 _ 12 __ 23 143t__ 1949-1950 ____ 2.34 _ 14.0 _____ 8 _ 14 __ 22 143t__ 1950-1951 ____ 1.40 __ 9.3 ____ 13 __ 9 __ 22 143t__ 1952-1953 ____ 2.61 _ 15.1 _____ 7 _ 15 __ 22 146 __ 1998-1999 ____ 2.60 _ 12.7 _____ 7 _ 13 __ 20* (15) 147 __ 1996-1997 ____ 2.14 _ 10.0 _____ 9 _ 10 __ 19 148 __ 1972-1973 ____ 0.94 __ 2.8 ____ 15 ___3 __ 18 149 __ 1918-1919 ____ 2.17 __ 3.8 _____ 9 ___ 4 __ 13* (10) 150 __ 2019-2020 ____ 2.88 __ 4.8 ____ 6 ___ 5 __ 11 151 __ 1997-1998 ____ 3.14 __ 5.5 _____ 4 ___ 6 __ 10 *(5) 152 __ 2011-2012 ____ 3.62 __ 7.4 _____ 2 ___ 7 ___ 9 (6 excl Oct) 153 __ 1931-1932 ____ 3.90 __ 5.3 _____ 0 ___ 5 ___ 5 154 __ 2001-2002 ____ 4.20 __ 3.5 _____ 0 ___ 4 ___ 4 155 __ 2022-2023 ____ 3.92 __ 2.3 _____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 2 _____________________________ * more than a third of snow was recorded mar-apr, figure in brackets was winter severity on mar 1st. In winter 1887-88, 22 of the 47 snow points came in mar, so while not quite half the total, a figure is shown in brackets also. 1870 was similar, almost alf its snow points came in mar-apr. ... winters not flagged for this also get a few of their snowfall points in mar-apr. ** a conservative estimate was made for Dec 1868 (no data) based on weather maps available, winter severity could be closer to 50 if estimates are too conservative, as Dec 1868 looked fairly cold and snowy. (the snow estimate was only 5", temperature est was -1.2 C)

(the net-weather thread had a few additions from other readers, the only ones perhaps worth a look would be those with graphs of data. I also have an excel file which needs updating, which I will post here as soon as it is updated) ... I have updated as much of these arctic summaries as possible, given that some of the reporting sites are suffering from variable amounts of missing data, more so than before 2020. Meanwhile I found a trip log from July-August 2008 for large portions of the interior of Victoria Island. The context is that Victoria Island is a huge expanse, the world's 8th largest island and similar in size to Honshu (7th) and Great Britain (9th). Most of the land is rolling tundra with sedimentary rock formations underlying extensive areas of small ponds and lakes, and chaotic drainage. However one large river, the Kuujjua, rises in northeast portions of Victoria Island not far from the last large indentation before the Storkerson Peninsula, and flows about 500 km west to reach the Arctic Ocean at the end of one of the western inlets. The trip report includes a lot of details on the weather in 2008 (I found it was 2008 and not 2009 as you might surmise from the log publication date in spring 2010, from a reference to an eclipse of the Sun which I verified happened on Aug 1, 2008). Also the weather details match to some extent what Cambridge Bay reported at certain times in summer 2008 (with the qualifier that the canoeists' location was quite some distance north and later northwest of YCB). So here's their report: http://www.pakboats.com/kuujjua-river-beaufort-sea-expedition/

Frequency of temperature extremes for the full data set (76 years) at Eureka, Nunavut - Canada 1948-2023 ___ Winter min ______ 3.5 Dec, 18.5 Jan, 27.5 Feb, 26.5 Mar 1948-2023 ___ Coldest month ___ 7.0 Dec, 16.0 Jan, 29.5 Feb, 23.5 Mar 1948-2023 ___ Summer max ____ 11 Jun __ 56 Jul __ 9 Aug 1948-2023 ___ Warmest Months __ 0 Jun __ 72.5 Jul __ 3.5 Aug

Here are some similar data (compaed to Cambridge Bay and Resolute) for Eureka, which is further north located in central Ellesmere Island, at 80N 86W and just 10 meters above sea level in a glacial valley surrounded by permanent ice fields and glaciers. Since the summer here is quite brief, I have left out the variables such as last frost, last snow cover, first frost and first snow cover. We'll check the trends on temperatures of both extremes, maximum snow depth and first autumn -20 C reading.. It should be noted that the prevailing climate is much drier than in the central arctic islands, and 10-15 cm snow cover is quite typical with strong winds sometimes leading to patches of bare frozen ground. The climate is drier than further south, and is known as "arctic desert" although it does support some scrubby vegetation that persist despite a very short growth season mid-June to early August. Most summers have very little rain and can continue to see sporadic light snowfalls, but one or two cases were noted of 25 mm rainfalls. A daily snowfall of more than 10 cm would be unusual at any point in the season. One heavier snowfall noted was 18 cm Sept 17-19 1966. The snow pack stays fairly constant once it reaches maximum depth and only begins to melt at the very end of May or first week of June. |At this latitude, darkness begins in early November and lasts until mid-February. Continual daylight begins in late April and persists to early August. * The min temp and coldest month could be in the preceding Nov or Dec although usually as shown they are in the part of the winter in the same calendar year. So what is showing is the coldest reading of each winter, not each calendar year. YEAR ____ Min temp*_ coldest mo*__Max snow depth__Max temp_warmest mo__first -20 1948 _____ -52.8 Mar __ -42.6 Feb __ _____________ _____ 18.9 Jul ___ 6.2 Jul _____ Sep 17 1949 _____ -49.4 Dec __ -41.8 Dec __ _____________ _____ 15.0 Jul ___ 5.9 Jul _____ Sep 29 1950 _____ -50.6 Feb __ -42.0 Jan __ _____________ _____ 19.4 Jul ___ 6.1 Jul _____ Sep 17 1951 _____ -50.0 Jan __ -40.3 Feb __ _____________ _____ 15.6 Jul ___ 5.7 Jul _____ Sep 27 1952 _____ -51.2 Jan __ -38.8 Dec __ _____________ _____ 16.7 Jul ___ 6.7 Jul _____ Oct 1 1953 _____ -50.6 Mar __ -39.6 Feb __ _____________ _____ 12.8 Jul ___ 4.2 Jul _____ Sep 23 1954 _____ -47.8 Feb __ -38.4 Jan __ _____________ _____ 16.1 Jun ___ 5.6 Jul _____ Oct 2 1955 _____ -48.9 Feb __ -40.1 Mar __ _____________ _____ 13.3 Aug ___3.8 Jul,Aug _ Oct 2 1956 _____ -52.2 Mar __ -37.7 Mar__37 cm Apr 17-Jun 2_ 14.4 Jul ___ 5.5 Jul _____ Sep 23 1957 _____ -48.9 Jan __ -40.5 Jan __ 10 cm Mar 1-May 14_ 17.8 Jun __ 6.8 Jul _____ Sep 29 1958 _____ -52.2 Feb __ -41.5 Dec __23 cm Jan 23-May 17_18.9 Jul __ 5.8 Jul _____ Oct 2 1959 _____ -48.3 Feb __ -39.6 Mar __20 cm Jan 20-May 31_16.7 Jul __ 6.3 Jul _____ Sep 29 1960 _____ -51.2 Mar __ -39.5 Mar __23 cm May 6-14 _____17.2 Jun __ 6.6 Jul _____ Oct 1 mean _____ -50.3 _____ -40.2 _____ 23 cm Mar 7-May 10 __16.4 _____ 5.8 ________ Sep 27 1961 _____ -51.2 Mar __ -39.7 Mar __18 cm Feb 18-May 30 _15.6 Aug _ 4.5 Jul _____ Sep 14 1962 _____ -46.7 J, F __ -39.1 Feb __ 28 cm Apr 1-29 ______ 18.3 Jul __ 7.5 Jul _____ Sep 26 1963 _____ -48.9 Jan __ -39.1 Mar __ 28 cm Feb 11-May 27_ 15.0 Jul __ 5.8 Jul _____ Sep 29 1964 _____ -51.2 Mar __ -38.8 Mar __ 25 cm Apr 30-May 7 __12.2 Aug _ 3.7 Aug ____Sep 28 1965 _____ -45.2 Feb __ -37.2 Feb __ 15 cm May 7 - 21 _____ 16.7 Aug _ 4.1 Jul _____ Sep 20 1966 _____ -53.3 Jan __ -39.4 Mar __ 18 cm May 11-21 _____ 14.4 Aug _ 5.3 Aug_____Sep 25 1967 _____ -51.7 Feb __ -41.7 Feb __ 23 cm Jan 4-Apr 4 ____ 14.4 Jun _ 4.5 Jul _____ Sep 25 1968 _____ -51.2 Jan __ -40.0 Jan __ 20 cm Feb 24-Apr 30 _ 18.3 Jul __6.3 Jul _____ Sep 29 1969 _____ -48.3 Mar __ -38.6 Mar __ 18 cm May 9 - 21 _____ 13.3 Jun _ 4.6 Jul _____ Sep 19 1970 _____ -50.6 Jan __ -37.9 Feb __ 30 cm Apr 10-May 22 _ 13.3 Aug _ 5.3 Jul _____ Sep 24 mean _____-49.9 ______-39.2 ______22 cm Mar 26- May 12 __ 15.2 ____ 5.2 __________Sep 24 ====================================================== In these first 23 years of data, not much change decade to decade, there was a slight decrease in the summer temperature parameters and the -20 C season began a bit earlier (by three days). The earliest -20C is about three weeks to a month earlier than at YRB or YCB. YEAR ____ Coldest min and month ___ Max snow depth ______ Warmest max and month __ First -20 C 1971 _____ -48.9 D, F __ -42.5 Feb __ 30 cm May 7-20 ________ 17.2 Jul __ 7.0 Jul _____ Sep 24 1972 _____ -53.9 Feb __ -39.4 Jan ___23 cm Mar 10 - June 3 ___ 11.7 Jul __ 4.6 Jul _____ Sep 20 1973 _____ -52.8 Feb __ -43.2 Feb __ 28 cm Apr 4 - May 1 _____ 11.1 Jul __ 4.5 Jul _____ Sep 26 1974 _____ -50.6 Feb __ -42.3 Jan __ 18 cm Apr 16 - June 22 ___ 12.8 Jul __ 4.8 Jul _____ Sep 22 1975 _____ -51.7 Feb __ -42.9 Feb __ 25 cm Nov 14-27 1974 ____16.1 Jul __ 4.9 Jul _____ Sep 26 1976 _____ -47.8 Mar __ -37.5 Feb __ 28 cm Apr 3 - May 31 _____18.9 Jul __ 5.1 Jul _____ Sep 21 1977 _____ -50.5 Mar __ -42.2 Mar __ 23 cm Jan 16 - Feb 6 _____ 17.5 Jul __ 6.7 Jul _____ Sep 25 1978 _____ -50.8 Dec __ -39.9 Dec __48 cm May 13 - 22 ________17.3 Jul __ 6.8 Jul _____ Sep 27 1979 _____ -55.3 Feb __ -47.9 Feb __ 20 cm Apr 13 - May 2 _____ 14.5 Jul __ 5.2 Jul _____ Sep 14 1980 _____ -49.8 Jan __ -38.4 Dec __ 34 cm Mar 21 - 27 ________14.7 Jul __ 5.5 Jul _____ Sep 17 mean _____-51.2 _____ -41.6 ______28 cm Mar 18 - Apr 18 _____15.2 Jul__5.5 Jul _____ Sep 22 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ANALYSIS: The 1970s began with some very cold years, 1972 to 1974 failed to warm beyond about 12 C and had warmest months (always July in this decade) below 5.0. This reversed to some extent in the later 1970s with some rather warm readings. The winters were generally a bit colder than previous decades, and reached new minima in 1972 and again in 1979 (-55.3) during a widespread very cold month in eastern North America. To the end of this decade there is no sign of any warming trend overall but a few years began to display signs of it. Similar to Cambridge Bay, winter 1974-75 had an anomalous early winter snow depth peak in November 1974. This pulled back the average duration which otherwise would have run from early April to early May on average. The decade had somewhat heavier snow cover than previously. The winter of 1977-78 had particularly heavy snow cover for this location. It had reached its usual late winter depth before the end of 1977 and continued to accumulate with small snowfalls in the heart of the winter season. Some mid-winter periods have no measurable snow and changes can only occur through wind redistribution, which is unusual due to prolonged anticyclonic intervals and rather calm conditions. Stronger winds occur in summer as different surfaces are heated and sometimes gusts over 100 km/hr occur in dry weather in July. We are now in a position to set the 1951-80 "normal" based on those years from previous post and this one. Data from 1948 to 1950 are not included in these. 1951-80 _____ -50.4 __ -40.0 ____ 24 cm Mar 19 - May 2 _____ 15.5 ___ 5.5 _____ Sep 25 The trends within this 30-year interval are faint, but slightly towards a colder regime with more snow and earlier winter onset. Frequencies of coldest and warmest (0.5 for ties) -- these data include 1948, 49 and 50. Coldest Days ___ 2.5 Dec, 8.5 Jan, 13.0 Feb, 9.0 Mar ______ Warmest Days __ 4 Jun __ 23 Jul __ 6 Aug Coldest Months _ 5 Dec _ 6 Jan _ 12 Feb _ 10 Mar _________Warmest Months _______ 30.5 Jul _ 2.5 Aug Now we can start to track how that changed, if at all, from 1981 to the present time. ============================================= 1981 _____ -46.3 Feb __ -37.7 Mar __ 13 cm Apr 14-20 _____ 17.2 Jun __ 5.9 Jul _____Sep 27 1982 _____ -47.9 Mar __ -39.0 Feb __ 18 cm Apr 19-27 _____ 14.2 Jul __ 5.1 Jul _____ Sep 24 1983 _____ -50.2 Feb __ -37.8 Feb __ 19 cm Apr 10-12 _____ 13.6 Jul __ 5.7 Jul _____ Oct 4 1984 _____ -51.3 Mar __ -44.1 Feb __ 20 cm Feb 4-12 ______ 15.2 Jul __ 5.3 Jul _____ Sep 28 1985 _____ -49.8 Mar __ -41.5 Feb __ 38 cm Apr 19-24 _____ 14.5 Jul __ 6.6 Jul _____ Oct 1 1986 _____ -50.7 Jan __ -41.8 Mar __ 22 cm Apr 9 - May 1 __ 11.3 Jul __ 4.3 Jul _____ Sep 21 1987 _____ -55.3 Feb __ -45.2 Feb __ 22 cm Jan 29-Feb 2 __ 16.6 Jun __ 6.0 Jul _____ Sep 26 1988 _____ -52.6 Jan __ -39.3 Jan __ 15 cm Feb 20-Mar 10__ 17.5 Jul __ 7.3 Jul _____ Oct 6 1989 _____ -52.4 Jan __ -42.5 Jan __ 22 cm Mar 5 - 9 ______ 11.9 Jul __ 4.2 Jul _____ Sep 28 1990 _____ -51.5 Jan __ -40.8 Feb __ 26 cm May 9-15 ______15.7 Jun__ 5.6 Jul _____ Oct 1 mean _____-50.8 _____ -41.0 ______ 22 cm Mar 27-Apr 5 ___14.8 _____ 5.6 Jul _____ Sep 29 ------------------------------------------------------------- ANALYSIS: In general terms, there was not much change from the previous 30-year averages in the 1980s to 1990 -- but the onset of -20 C temperatures came a few days later with 1988 in particular having some difficulty settling into the winter chill. Note: An unusual incursion of milder air on very strong northwest winds (gusting to 100 km/hr) took place on Jan. 24th 1982. Temperatures peaked at -9.6 C. In most winters readings higher than -20 are rare. No precip was noted within weeks of this date, except for trace amounts of snow which could have been just blowing snow. Very strong southerly winds occurred and some light snow fell earlier in the month (9th). This was during an unusually cold outbreak in eastern North America. Then in Oct 1984, an unusual mild spell (near freezing) and heavy snow led to a 27 cm cover by Oct 14th (normal is about 5-10 cm). After increasing to 28 cm in mid-November, this pack continued to grow incrementally to 35 cm in late March and 38 cm in late April, with consistently very cold temperatures all through the period. April 1985 was particularly cold relative to normal values (mean -30.9). This perhaps shows us how a slight increase in the snow pack can really anchor colder air masses in these arctic source regions. Despite rather mild temperatures after mid-May, the snow pack melted off rather slowly and only disappeared finally by about June 28th (1985), about two weeks later than most years. It gave me the impression that a 60-80 cm snow pack might manage to last through an entire summer at that location, if the climate ever shifted in such a way as to produce that much snow. (Normally late June and all of July are snow free with 5-15 mm rainfalls, and then snow begins to fall again in August). ------------------------------------------------------------------- YEAR ___ Min temp _ coldest mo __ Max snow depth ____ Max temp _ warmest mo_ first -20 C 1991 ____ -50.7 Jan _ -40.1 Jan ___ 20 cm Apr 30-May 4 _ 16.1 Jul __ 6.4** Jul ___ Sept 29 1992 ____ -49.1 Jan _ -40.6 Jan ___ 21 cm Mar 21-Apr 8 __15.1 Jul __ 5.2 Jul ______ Oct 3 1993 ____ -48.9 Mar _ -36.6 Mar ___20 cm May 12 - 15 ___16.7 Jul __ 7.3 Jul _____ Sept 28 1994 ____ -49.9 Mar _ -37.6 Mar ___08 cm Apr 22-May 9 _ 17.6 Jul __ 5.6 Jul _____ Oct 2 1995 ____ -52.0 Mar _ -39.2 Mar ___10 cm Mar 14-Apr 8 __18.6 Jul __ 7.3 Jul ______ Oct 3 1996 ____ -48.7 Feb _ -38.2 Mar ___16 cm Nov 27-28 ^ ___12.0 Jul __ 4.1 Jul ______ Sept 14 1997 ____ -49.7 Feb _ -41.0 Feb ___19 cm Jan 15-29 _____ 15.6 Jun __ 5.6 Jul _____ Sept 23 1998 ____ -47.6 J F __-39.2 Jan ___ 19 cm May 18 _______ 17.8 Jul ___ 6.9 Jul ______ Oct 11* 1999 ____ -46.6 J M __-38.8 Jan ___ 21 cm May 14-15 ___ 16.5 Aug __ 7.0 Jul ______ Oct 3 2000 ____ -50.2 Jan _ -41.4 Dec ___ 13 cm Apr 14-May 16_ 19.6 Jul __ 6.2 Jul _____ Sept 28 mean ____ -49.3 ____ -39.3 _______ 17 cm Mar 28-Apr 9 ___ 16.6 ______ 6.2 Jul _____ Sept 29 _________________________________________________________ Notes: * September 1998 was much above normal in temperatures. There were few days even reaching -5 C and this milder trend continued for the first ten days of October. A more normal temperature regime was not reached before about late November although the entire winter season was relatively mild for the location, except for a near normal January of 1999. This was also a strong El Nino year and the warmest year on record at Toronto. ** Unfortunately the station reported no data from July 21 to 31 then resumed operation on August 1st. The 6.4 could have ended up between 5 and 8 given the normal range of temperatures in late July. Also the annual max of 16.1 could have been superseded. The first week of August 1991 was relatively mild there, so my guess is that the warmth of mid-July probably continued and the actual monthly mean might have been closer to 7.0. ^ This early peak snow depth was almost matched by 15 cm reported at times in March, April and May. There was unusually heavy snow in June 1996, 8.2 cm fell on June 9-10 at a time when the winter snow pack (not very large at any point) had mostly melted away. Another 3 cm fell on June 25. It is rare to see near-freezing (all day) temperatures and snowfall that late into June or at any point in July. But after a notably cold July there was more snow on July 23 and 27 (2-3 cm falls in each case). August continued with the colder than normal theme with a mean of only 1.0 (some milder Augusts are in the 3-5 range). There was a fall of 7.6 cm snow on August 20th which is also unusual as many Augusts see only small or trace amounts. This cover only lasted one day. Then the -20 C season began about two weeks earlier than most years. ANALYSIS While the decade of the 1990s to 2000 produced some variations, the background theme was slight warming. A new maximum of 19.6 was reached on July 29th, 2000, but the warmest month in the data set so far remained 7.5 in July 1962 (partially missing July 1991 may have been close to that and two more 7.3 values were added to the one produced in July 1988. Snow depth continued its slow decline, with winters of 1993-94 and 1994-95 particularly sparse (both maxed out at 8-10 cm). The timing of maximum snow depth changed only slightly from earlier averages and that was largely due to two anomalously early peaks, one in November 1995 and the next one in the following winter in January 1997. The onset of the -20 C season drifted back to near the end of September and on one occasion was two weeks late in arriving (Oct 1998). ================================================================= YEAR ___ Min temp _ coldest mo __ Max snow depth ____ Max temp _ warmest mo_ first -20 C 2001 ____ -51.2 Feb __ -37.1 Feb __ 15 cm (two int) ** ___ 15.0 Jul __ 5.5 Jul _____Sept 24 ^ 2002 ____ -48.4 Feb __ -40.6 Feb __ 21 cm Apr 30-May 5 _13.8 Jul __ 5.5 Aug ____ Oct 2 2003 ____ -46.1 Feb __ -38.1 Mar __ 20 cm Feb 7-15 ____ 20.0 Jul __ 7.6 Jul _____ Oct 4 2004 ____ -49.5 Mar __ -39.3 Mar __ 14 cm Apr 13-25 ____11.5 Jul __ 4.5 Jul _____ Sept 23 2005 ____ -50.2 Mar __ -36.0 Jan __ 29 cm Apr 16-17 ____ 15.2 Aug__7.2 Jul _____Oct 1 2006 ____ -46.8 Mar __ -35.5 Feb __20 cm^^Nov 30-Dec 1_15.3 Jul __ 6.4 Jul _____ Oct 5 2007 ____ -49.7 Mar __ -39.4 Mar __ 16 cm Apr 16-May 1 _ 20.7 Jul __ 7.9 Jul _____ Oct 3 2008 ____ -49.7 Mar __ -41.0 Jan __ 17 cm Feb 3 ________18.6 Jul __ 7.1 Jul _____ Oct 6 2009 ____ -50.1 Feb __ -38.6 F M __ 19 cm May 19-24 ___ 20.9 Jul __ 8.0 Jul _____ Oct 6 2010 ____ -45.4 Jan __ -34,7 Jan __ 30 cm Apr 23***_____ 18.5 Jun __ 6.7 Jul _____ Oct 2 mean ____ -48.7 _____ -38.0 ______20 cm Mar 20-Apr 1 __17.0 _____ 6.5 (Jul) ____ Oct 2 ____________________________ ** In 2001, two intervals had 15 cm snow cover, March 5-15 and May 6-16. The stats are averaged into the data means by duration of March 5 to May 16. ^ Rather like 1998, most of September was very mild and this early -20 was followed by more mild weather than is usually the case once -20 has been reached. The days from Sept 27th to October 4th were close to freezing at times and some snow melted. Another restart of the -20 C season occurred on October 10th without a return to mild conditions. ^^ An unusually heavy snowfall (10.8 cm on Nov 29, 2005) led to a temporary peak in snow depth of 20 cms. This settled to the 10-15 cm range within a week. Another maximum of 19 cms persisted through large parts of March and April but never broke the brief 20 cm earlier in the winter. *** April 2010 was very different from most Aprils (which tend to be quite dry with stable snow packs near seasonal maximum). There was a total of 19 cms snow and some very mild temperatures in the -5 to -10 C range mid-month. The snow pack built up to its maximum then gradually settled back to 25 cm. One more snowfall brought it back to 29 cm on May 12th and that settled to 20-25 cm for a few weeks before it gradually melted in June. note Feb 2006 may have been closer to -36 as one day of data missing and days on either side were cold. ------------------ ANALYSIS (2001-2010) ... This decade continued a very slight temperature increase trend, adding about 1 C to the means of the previous decade in winter and less than 0.5 deg in summer. There was more variability perhaps, and some of the summers were notably warm, in particular 2009. The onset of winter (first -20 C) was further delayed to early October. There were several more episodes of very mild conditions in September and/or October, including the autumn of 2006. Snow pack maximum depths improved slightly over the minimum reached the previous decade, but began to show more of a bimodal tendency in this decade with several occasions of one "autumn" or early winter peak and a second similar spring or late winter peak. There was a noted tendency for snow depths to deflate after unusual mid-season snowfalls, possibly indicating greater water content in the snow than one might expect in this arctic desert climate. We can now compare the 1981-2010 averages to the 1951-1980 averages previously calculated. 1951-80 _____ -50.4 __ -40.0 ____ 24 cm Mar 19 - May 2 _____ 15.5 ___ 5.5 _____ Sep 25 1981-2010 ___ -49.6 __ -39.4 ____ 22 cm Mar 25 - Apr 5 _____ 16.1 ___ 6.1 _____ Sep 30 The frequency of various extremes compares to the first set as follows ... 1948-80 ___ Winter min _______________ 1981-2010 ___ Winter min __________ Total (63 winters) __ 2.5 Dec, 8.5 Jan, 13.0 Feb, 9.0 Mar __ 0.0 Dec, 9.0 Jan, 9.5 Feb, 11.5 Mar _ 2.5 Dec, 17.5 Jan, 22.5 Feb, 20.5 Mar 1948-80 ___ Coldest month ____________ 1981-2010 ___ Coldest month ________Total (63 winters) __ 5 Dec _ 6 Jan _ 12 Feb _ 10 Mar ______ 1.0 Dec, 9.0 Jan, 10.5 Feb, 9.5 Mar ___ 6.0 Dec, 15.0 Jan, 22.5 Feb, 19.5 Mar 1948-80 ___ Summer max ______________ 1981-2010 __ Summer max _________ Total (63 summers) ____ 4 Jun ___ 23 Jul ___ 6 Aug _________ 5 Jun __ 23 Jul __ 2 Aug ___________ 9 Jun __ 46 Jul __ 8 Aug 1948-80 ___ Warmest Months __________ 1981-2010 __ Warmest Months ______ Total (63 summers) ____ 0.0 Jun ___ 30.5 Jul ___ 2.5 Aug _____ 0 Jun ___ 29 Jul ___ 1 Aug _________ 0 Jun __ 59.5 Jul __ 3.5 Aug There have not been large shifts in these distributions, the coldest part of winter continues to be mid-January to early March, and the warmest part of summer late June to early August. The years that have their warmest day outside of July usually hit a day within a week of July, mid-June to mid-August is the extreme range (compared to mid-May to late September in southern Canada). ==================================================== (2011-2020 stats) YEAR ___ Min temp _ coldest mo __ Max snow depth ___ Max temp _ warmest mo_ first -20 C 2011 ____ -49.5 Feb __ -38.8 Feb __ 34 cm Jan 2 - 3 ____ 20.0 Jul __ 9.8 Jul _____ Sept 28 2012 ____ -50.4 Mar __ -37.2 Mar __ 30 cm Apr 2 -11 ____ 17.9 Jul __ 8.7 Jul _____ Oct 8 2013 ____ -51.5 Mar __ -42.3 Feb __ 20 cm Mar 27-Apr 6__12.8 Jul __4.5 Jul _____ Oct 4 2014 ____ -50.4 Feb __ -39.1 Feb __ 29 cm Mar 23-Apr 3__14.6 Aug__5.9 Jul _____ Oct 3 2015 ____ -49.2 Feb __ -36.9 Mar __ 12 cm Jan 23-25 ____20.2 Jul __ 9.6 Jul ____ Sept 28 2016 ____ -47.8 Dec __ -37.4 Dec __ 15 cm Apr 6-May 17_ 18.1 Jul __ 8.2*Jul _____ Oct 9 2017 ____ -50.7 Mar __ -34.8 Mar __ 22 cm May 24 ______13.8 Jul __ 5.5 Jul _____ Sept 26 2018 ____ -46.3 Mar __ -38.0 Mar __ 14 cm May 9-10 ____ 14.5 Jun __4.5^Jul ____ Oct 1 2019 ____ -46.5 Mar __ -36.5 Feb __ 26 cm Jan 1*** _____ 19.0 Jul __ 9.7^Jul ____ Oct 17 2020 ____ -49.1 Mar9__-39.7 Jan ___ 9 cm Apr 5 _________ 19.5 Jul _ 10.0 Jul ____ Oct 8 mean ____ -49.2 ______ -38.1 _______ 20 cm Mar 17 - 24 ___ 17.1 ______ 7.7 Jul _____ Oct 5 2021 ____ -48.0 Feb 21_ -35.0 Feb _ 17 cm (sev'l Jan-Feb) __13.7 Jun _ 5.4 Jul ____ Oct 15 2022 ____ -47.5 Feb 5 __ -38.0 Feb _ 29 cm (late Oct-early Jan)*_19.2 Jul _ 6.7 Jul ___ Oct 2 2023 ____ -49.2 Jan 12 __ -36.8 Feb _ 12 cm (21 Jan) _______ 19.7 Jul _ 8.0^ Jul ___ Oct 9 ( to Dec 10 2023) *snow cover of 27-29 cm fairly continuous late October to Jan 5, then it suddenly changes to 14 cm on Jan 6 and stays in that range rest of winter, slowly reducing to zero by June 7. Not sure if that change reflects a windstorm blowing snow away, or a change in observer with different habits, cannot be melt as temps well below -30 C. Once gone, it never returned to any similar values. note: a very unusual high of -3.8 C on Dec 23 2021, between two long cold spells. This site has rather complete data compared to YCB and YRB. The coldest month in Feb 2022 was based on complete data. ^ July 2023 table value 8.2 C but 30-31 missing data, from hourlies available, est 4 C and 6 C dropping mean to 8.0. _____________________________________________________________ * Some temp data missing July 1-2 2016, mins are shown but not maxes, looked colder than the monthly mean of 8.4 so that is reduced here to 8.2 (est 3.5 1-2). ^ Some temp data missing July 1-3, mins are available, and this time it looked a bit milder than the cold monthly mean of 4.3 so I adjusted up to 4.5 (Aug was complete and also 4.3). ^ Also the next July has three missing days 20-22 July, these may have been fairly warm as per Eureka (A) which is inlan (opened later in the study period) and runs a bit warmer in warm summer spells (probably a sea breeze effect closer to the fjord where Eureka climate station sits). I raised this data from 9.4 as reported to 9.7. There is some chance that the 19.0 max was broken then also (but the airport station while warmer than 19 in the missing days had its max on the same day as the 19.0). Considering the location and length of data period, I was fairly pleased with the continuity of data in general; as with other studies I am doing, the most recent years have more frequent missing days. Not sure if this is due to insufficient time for quality control to work through the data sets, or some kind of staffing issue that is getting worse with time, but it seems to affect a lot of different Canadian data sets. *** This is the only example I saw in all data of a large one-day shift in snow depth that might be attributable to winds. No measurable snow was reported, the depths on both the previous and next day were under 12 cm, but a moderate southeast wind was reported. The other explanation might be a coding or data entry error. If not for this 26 cm reading on New Years Day then the maximum snow depth occurred on March 28th (17 cms). _____________________________ ANALYSIS of 2011-20 data Although 2013 and 2014 were rather cold, this past nine years has seen mostly continuation of the slow warming trends of previous decades. There were at least three anomalously warm early winter periods (September into early October) in 2012, 2016 and 2019. This current winter 2019-20 started out rather feeble for cold, but converged on normal through December and has been quite cold in January (average was -39.7). The snow pack is currently very sparse, only 4 cm on the ground (updated on Feb 7th) but despite that it has been below -40 since the start of February and recently as cold as -48 C. (added later .. the season continued to record rather sparse snow cover and the summer was rather warm again at least in July, August was close to normal and in the past week as of 5 Sep the weather is close to freezing with no snow cover established yet.) ______________________________ SUMMARY of this study Eureka represents a climate very close to the Greenland (and lesser Ellesmere Island-Devon Island-Axel Heiberg Island) ice caps and appears to be receiving more frequent incursions of milder air masses in winter, although not to the extent that the climate is radically different from the mid-20th century. These incursions do not happen every winter, or if they do happen in a given winter, they might only take place in say November or March, and not several different times. This seems to be the main reason why both average and extreme winter temperatures are gradually moderating, but make no mistake, this is still a very harsh arctic climate with full expectation of seeing -45 C days and -35 C months, most likely from January to March. A few anomalous events were noted throughout but this is a very predictable climate with long stretches of similar weather at various times of year. The summers also appear to be warming very slightly, and the onset of them has moved generally from late June into mid-June. A typical summer will not end suddenly but will fade out through August with a return of some snow and freezing daytime temperatures by late August. This can sometimes be muted and delayed well into September in a persistent southerly air flow bringing in saturated air from the Davis Sea (west of Greenland) that has temperatures near 2 or 3 C and dew points near 1 C. A cold drizzle falls from low clouds in this air flow, and it probably deposits wet snow on higher hills and the surrounding ice fields. The frequency of this sort of extended late summer appears to be rising in recent decades (from perhaps less than once a decade to 3-4 times now). Spring in most years seems to be a case where milder air masses slowly work their way into the region and sit over the decaying snow pack until it has all melted, then temperatures rise from around 5 C to 10-15 C with the bare ground exposed. But it does not appear that there is much of a shift in the weather itself after the melt is finished. Warmth depends mainly on hours of sunshine rather than any sort of air mass arrival. This is a precarious climate which could easily tilt to some other set of conditions, if for example winter snowfall increased in the region. It has seldom been much more than 30-40 cms in any recent winter. If for any reason heavier snow begins to fall more frequently, that could quite possibly stick around long enough to last through the brief summers. If on the other hand snow cover diminishes further, then summer could lengthen to something like late May to early September. Since Eureka is on a narrow inlet which is itself an extension of a relatively narrow channel between two large islands (Ellesmere and Axel Heiberg are roughly equivalent to Great Britain and Ireland in size) the oceanic influence (whether of open or frozen seas) is not large but it must play some role, so changes in ice cover might mean changes in precipitation. In what is almost a desert like rainfall profile, any increase would have significant effects on the environment. There seems little potential for precipitation to decrease at this location.