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Roger Smith

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  1. I recall the weather situation around that, in Ontario where I was that winter, we had an extreme cold spell where the temperature stayed below zero F all day. This place where I worked did forecasts for industrial clients relating to air pollution control, so it was rather technical work (telling people if it was going to be safe to operate or would they be killing folks) and not public forecasting stuff, but I recall the low in question passing by to our south and a big warm up that followed after quite a cold February was just about done. I would have to pull some historical weather maps (maybe in article you linked) but I seem to recall a high of around 1055 mbs being involved in the extreme cold. It was so cold we cancelled a planned trip that involved a cross-country ski event around Ottawa where it was looking like -20 F instead of just the balmy zero F we had in Toronto. I don't keep in touch with anyone at Accu-wx but I did meet some very nice people, as well as Joe B. (jk, younger Joe was shall we say an intense weather nerd and not afraid to go against the herd). I was on the technical side, rather than forecasting, but everyone got to chip in on forecast discussions. This is what they would do for every big event -- every person would draw up their own map and then they would put them all up on a wall and discuss. At the end of the discussion they had a consensus forecast. And you know how good those can be. - - - so I looked up the charts and read the article. It was the same set of events, the big high was over Ontario on Saturday 17th and the PD-1 event was on the 19th. I guess it ran into quite a wall of cold air. And that, as the article relates, ended a long cold winter once it played out. I've been very lucky to experience so many big weather events, I was also right in the worst part of the July 1995 derecho event, and actually had the eye of hugo pass over home base in its dying phases. Also some epic lake effect storms and huge snowstorms like 1-23-1966 and the Chicago blizzard a year later but getting both the warm sector and a big chunk of the snowstorm! I guess when I was young I thought the weather was going to stay in that beast mode forever, by around 1986 I was starting to wonder, what happened to our weather machine, this is getting pretty boring now. All the big storms I saw in "formative years" are no doubt a reason why I tend to go for the fences on forecasts sometimes, must be nostalgia overcoming common sense.
  2. It has warmed up to 20F around here and a big dump of snow is incoming, expecting 10-15 inches locally. Deep winter gets deeper.
  3. Looks like a highly variable pattern rather than a big warmup to me, yes there are a few days in 50s but also reloading cold shots on latest run, and end of current run into early Feb looks very similar to Feb 1-3, 1993 when there were a few modestly warm days before a very cold period of six weeks that ended up with the superstorm of march 1993. Also I have seen some similarity of pattern evolution to winter of 1888. It makes me wonder, what is the warmer climate version of blizzard of 1888? Anyway, I would look for some frigid temps at times in February, I don't believe it is going to torch. This coming weekend will be quite cold with 510 dm thicknesses shown over the region on Saturday into Sunday a.m.
  4. True story, I worked at Accu-weather in winter 1979-80 and next desk over was Joe B. It has been downhill ever since (for all of the above? one or two out of three? .. not sayin'). We TOTALLY NAILED the leap year day blizzard of 1980. Again, downhill ever since. It's a good job we did nail it because there was little snow otherwise. I dimly recall a 6" event around mid-Feb in PA ... Lake Placid NY had to run snow making machines full blast to stage the winter Olympics. It was almost as bad as last winter in terms of no snow, until Feb 28-29-mar 1, quite a storm down around Virginia Beach, and record cold in n.e. US, Ontario. At least we didn't have to choose between models, there was just one or two, the LFm Limited Fine mesh (sounds like a porn site, but it was not that kind of model). People say how forecasting has improved but I can recall some very good forecasts made with just the tech of 1970s and early 80s, and the good old LFm. That placed the Cleveland blizzard low (1-26-78) as a 960 mb over Lake Ontario 24h in advance, not quite right, but good enough to warn most affected areas of what was coming. Imagine my surprise on morning of Jan 26 coming into a (private forecasting) weather office in Toronto and discovering it was actually a 955 mb low over w Lake Erie to south end of Lake huron, and London ON was getting a south wind gusting to 90 knots with arctic air wrapping around the center blowing squalls off Lake Erie. We shall not see its like again, I suppose. I knew something was up, we were expecting a snowstorm in Toronto but it was raining and 40F with a very strong east wind at 0800h, and there was an air conditioning unit in my parking space blown off our building, then about 15 min after I got into work and was just looking in awe at the data (teletype), wind shifted to SSW 40 kts and the snow began, so the forecast worked out for wrong reasons in T.O. ... I don't recall if the Ohio blizzard was really nailed by forecasters or not, but from the primitive model of the day, a reasonably close approximation was possible, I would think there was a forecast of an ordinary to severe snowstorm but not the monster that actually hit. I always wonder what the current models would show for 1-26-78, that low was near Atlanta at 00z and deepened 30-40 mbs in only a few hours. I'm pretty sure they would have been a bit closer than Lake Ontario for its 12z position but maybe Erie PA 958 mbs or whatever is 50% better. Those primitive models also told us quite accurately that we would be on the track of Frederic (Sep 1979) and get 4-6 in of rain. Forecasting has not improved very much in my humble opinion, possibly at 3-5 days? But we used to hand draw those progs. And they were often pretty good.
  5. Low offshore deepened just enough to push associated 850-925 above freezing temps back to n.w. as it passed, reverse process now underway, soundings showed +1 at 925 and +2 (C) at 850 mbs. Low is not very vigorous so boundary layer inflow was too weak to bring temps up above freezing at surface. General comment, link below is excellent for tracking upper air conditions: http://spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16&parm=925mb&underlay=1&source=1
  6. It's looking very cold for Saturday mid-day there, temps in low 20s or even high teens. Could be 5-10 F by Sunday morning, below zero in outlying n/w forum areas. As to snowfall, I wouldn't want to guess with the spread in guidance now, looks like about 40% chance of a 0.5 - 2" event, 40% 3-5" and 20% 5+ ... if low just races east from 35N only trough to wNY can produce any snow, if low takes a bit longer to head east, 3-5" and if models just decide to correct north, 10" potential.
  7. Yes, when it gets hot in BC and WA-OR-Idaho dew points can be quite tolerable, low 50s, to near 70 F is range I have seen, when it's 95-100 F with 68-72 dews, people complain of humidity but I moved here from Ontario and I didn't feel the humidity at all when people were complaining about it, it still felt hot and dry to me. Even in the heat dome event, it was basically the same feel that you have in Las Vegas where it can be 115/45. As to the rainfall, we have basically four NW-SE trending ranges to intercept Pacific moisture, Coast-Cascades, monashees (where I reside), Selkirks and Purcells, then the border with Alberta is the Rockies. So five in total, it's a wonder it rains at all in Alberta after these five are done with their orographic rainfall. I would say Coast-Cascades takes almost half, monashees, Selkirks, Purcells and Rockies all take about one-seventh each. It raises rainfalls to 100-120" annually in peak upslope locations in Coast and Cascades, and to 45-60 in totals in prime locations of the other ranges I cited. Valleys get about 10-20 inches and there are some semi-arid landscapes that are not quite desert but dryland similar to the lower areas of central Utah. This monas ee Range is a bit lower than the others but still has so e peaks of 8,000' to 10,000' but it is not as uniformly alpine, so moisture tends to leak through, I am on the dowslope side but we still get about 30" precip and abut half of it falls as snow. Down the hill near the Columbia River it's a lot drier, 12-15" totals, and 30-40" snowfall averages. We were just down there, and while we have a snow pack of two feet here, down in Trail it was about 4" and bare spots on south-facing slopes even in this rigid air mass. These mountain ranges all cross the border. The Cascades of course go all the way to n California. Our Coast Range intersects the Cascades near its northern end, but your Coast Range is an extension of our Vancouver Island mountains. The Cascades continue north for about 50 miles into Canada. East of them is a fairly extensive plateau region, ten the Okanagan valley. That extends south into the U.S. and merges wit the Columbia valley at the Grand Coulee Dam . The monashees extend just into WA state a few miles and more or less disappear as a few minor hills north of Spokane. The Selkirks and Purcells cross the border into n.e. corner of WA and into Idaho, and both disappear for a while before re-establishing as the Bitterroot Ranges which form the border of montana and Idaho. In BC, the trench between Selkirks and Purcells is filled by Kootenay Lake, part of the Kootenai River drainage (spelling changes to Kootenay River in Canada). That river joins the Columbia near YCG (Castlegar) which is fairly close to my location. Then between the Purcells and Rockies is a deep trench, bot Kootenay and Columbia rise in the Rockies, and flow in opposite directions from a point (Canal Flats) where a lake actually joins their drainages. The Kootenay goes south into montana and picks up several large tributaries in w montana, and also the Pend d'Oreille which drains lakes in n. Idaho, and flows just into BC before hitting the Columbia at the border. That trench between Purcells and Rockies is known as the East Kootenay and the region around Kootenay Lake and the lower Columbia is the west Kootenays. Anyway, that trench is semi-arid around Cranbrook and further south into montana, but it becomes a temperate rain forest further north where the Selkirks, Purcells and Rockies more or less merge into just the Rockies north of about 51 deg N. So further north in BC, the Pacific moisture is contending only with the Coast Range and a few bumps in an extensive plateau before hitting the Rockies. A lot more moisture makes it all the way, so rain forest can be found well out into the plateau to the west of the Rockies in central BC.
  8. I believe this one will overperform and give widespread 5-8 in snowfalls, local 8-12 near Gulf of maine north of BOS. Reason is cold air will also overperform setting up ahead of sliding frontal wave, and force it to develop a bit more. Temps will be 18-22 F during snow any distance inland and 24-28 F near coast. Only Cape Cod and islands will see any taint or mixing. Not that 5-8 inches is any big deal, but whatevs. Also, look for several big storms in Feb and march , this winter is going to become more intense. I believe the polar conveyor belt (NNW-SSE) is setting up for repeated delivery, and Pacific will fight back enough to knock it eastward so that it isn't wasted on my part of the world at all. It looks like a sort of 2008 blend with 2010 and a bit of the old 1888. Watch out for march 10-12. Not saying it will never turn warm, but warm spells will be very brief and quickly flushed out.
  9. Just for record, -44 at Glasgow and -43F at Jordan, montana, were lowest min I could find in lower 48 so far (for Sunday a.m.) ... lows into -40s in Alberta and -50s F north of Edmonton (-59 F in n.w. Alberta at Keg River). As cold as that sounds, it was -74F in 1947 at Watson Lake in southeast Yukon. At my location, Friday and Saturday were exceptionally cold, it moderated a little today. I don't maintain records but based on nearby stations and usual differentials, it was about -32 C (-25 F) overnight, and -5 F for daytime maxima (about +7 F today). We have ice crystal fog and saw low-altitude sundogs from the ice crystals. Deep winter and another snowfall of 15-20 cms expected midweek during moderation to 25-30 F.
  10. So far, coldest overnight low I can find in U.S. (at a weather station) was -43 F at Jordan, montana. There have been several near -50 C (-58 F) in western Canada past two days. Just noted -50.6 C at Keg River Alberta early today (-59 F).
  11. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59936-lake-effect-event-buffalo-bills-playoff-game-impacts/ You probably know Sunday NFL game is now going to be monday afternoon.
  12. I invented a new term as a result of this event: BUSTARD Obviously, an actual blizzard did happen n.w. of a given line, and storm performed reasonably well in many areas except greater Chicago, model guidance was relatively poor given actual outcome, primary or n.w. center never decayed or gave way to southern center even as they blended over michigan, and it went over south end of Lake instead of south of lake; all contributing to a bustard for Chicago where a blizzard was expected. It was a bigger bust than just lake-induced higher boundary level temps, that was part of problem, but if Euro pressure predictions had verified, I feel certain that ORD would have reached 12" and rain would have tainted only briefly and near lakeshore. The nam did better than most, in retrospect, perhaps keep it and toss Euro (now a supposed wonder of a.i.)? I realize there are different sources of funding, but if this is any indication, we have little to fear from a.i. domination except endless irritating references to it. I'll consult Alex rather than Euro from now on. ... my idea of going with 80% Euro snows would be better set at 30-40% at least in some areas. Even GFS snows were a bit inflated although better. It is what it is, but an enjoyable event to watch and try to decode, however unsuccessfully.
  13. Keep in mind, a map or any representation of differences in normals (1981-2010) to (1991-2020) is actually a measure of one-third of the difference between (1981-1990) and (2011-2020) because 1991-2010 are two thirds of both data sets. So if a map shows some location warmed by +1.0, it means 2011-2020 was 3.0 warmer than 1981-1990. Under the cold dome here, about -10 F which is probably within a few deg of record low max, about -20 F for overnight lows here. Sky is the same intense blue color that we had during the heat dome in June 2021. Trees are plastered with snow from days ago, and s.o.g. is about 20" in town, 30-40 inches in the nearby ski areas, and 15" down in the Columbia valley. These are near to slighty below average snow depths for our region. Only in January 1950 was there anything colder than what we're seeing across BC now, since 1950, a few other occasions were near equal to today. As I posted yesterday, Watson Lake Yukon had -74F on Jan 31, 1947 so their lowest value so far (-57F measured as -49.4 C) is not record-setting but there are only a few other cases of even -60 F, the 1947 spell was an outlier. Alberta and montana are probably closer to their all-time record lows, quite a heat island showing up for Edmonton, the station you're seeing (YEG) is 15-20 miles out of town, in the city it is running about 10F warmer. The Calgary airport readings are somewhat within suburban portions of their eat island, their airport (YYC) is a lot closer to downtown than YEG. Almost any other weather station in Alberta will have no urban effects, but you do get topographical variations in these calm cold spells, as solar radiation in January is negligible, so the overnight cold stays noticeable in valley bottoms all day.
  14. Would expect two rounds of convection with (a) occluded P front and (b) arctic front about 6 hrs afterwards, so around 0400-0600h and 1000-1200h EST. Will say widespread gusts into 40s but isolated 50s, it's active but not loaded with energy. Temp peak around 10:00h 51-54F. Falling into low 40s after arctic front passes, scattered flurries likely by evening in 32-34F range.
  15. Not quite in the core of the cold but it's -22 C (-8F) and clear here at 10:45 PST. Bit of a north wind giving a -35 C wind chill. Currently -35 to -40 C all over Alberta, even colder in far north, and Watson Lake (s.e. Yukon) is -48 C. We also had record cold last winter but it came earlier in mid-Dec, and did a lot of damage to vineyards in Okanagan valley region (-30 C). Canada's lowest reading ever was -63 C (-81 F) in early Feb 1947 at a location near Alaskan border, Snag, no longer an active weather station, I believe it was about same on Alaska side of border at Fort Yukon. We were reading in F deg back in 1947. I just looked up data, on Feb 3rd 1947 max temp was -57F and low -81F. Every day from Jan 27 to Feb 4 was below -40 but it warmed up to 5F on Feb 9. In same cold spell, Watson Lake's coldest reading was -74F on Jan 31, 1947 (it converts to -58.9 C).
  16. Latest thoughts ... Rather slow improvements will return to n IL as n.w. lobe of dual low is slowly robbed of warmth, better snow rates will return to Chicago after 6 pm and peak around midnight as wind backs to NE then NNE. Further south in IL, done for a while then picks up to moderate snow and blowing snow around 7-9 pm. ... Northern IN holds on to heavy wet snow for a while, dry slots, brief rain/snow mix, eventually N to NW winds bring in lake effect after midnight, blizzard conditions for a while SBN to La Porte. Into w Michigan, slow saturation of surface layers will result in gradual irregular increase in rates until S+ by the time primary low is near FWA and secondary is near s end of Lake Michigan late afternoon-evening, then periods of S+ merging eventually with SW+ from lake effect by morning. That will be the general scenario east to Jackson-Ann Arbor, interval of heavy wet snow likely in Detroit around 5-7 pm and after that intermittent light snow with brief moderate snowfall in decaying lake effect. Wisconsin, apart from some mixing issues at lakefront south of Racine-Kenosha, will get into bands of heavy snow separated by light to moderate, slowly accumulating to reach 12-15 in totals. Winds will increase from northeast and at least blizzard conditions in open rural areas if not all areas. N lower Michigan will rock as discussed in thread. Don't see total bust for MSP but 1-2" blowing around in very cold wind, instead of 4-6" not all that different, would not want to be out in it by tonight (at my location, crystal clear and -8 F at 9:30 PST). Toronto area I would agree with what I read earlier, 5-10 cm this evening, snow, sleet and/or ice pellet showers could include thunder. For many in IL it will be a case of two storm periods and a long pause lasting rest of daylight hours but part two could be quite intense as well. Gradient around secondary low tightens rapidly after about 21z.
  17. Euro also on its own in Europe at similar time scale, brings a fairly big chunk of subtropical low near Azores in towards France at a higher latitude (49-50 vs 45) than other models, difference is about the same (200-300 miles). So in general Euro is currently analyzing all of Atlantic basin differently from rest of big four. I don't like to ride any of the when they are solo against the field. So I would pick GFS and ignore possibly too warm Gem solution. Euro found progression bias, Gem found retrograde bias. Again, GFS is middle solution. GFS cannot bust as bad as Euro or Gem.
  18. Rain, snow or dry cold ... model consensus? Perhaps by Sunday. GFS looks most credible at present range of 120-132h. 6-10" snow potential.
  19. Link to map for Feb 15, 1943. Toronto (downtown) -21F equalled lowest in Feb 1934 (these were lowest values after end of 19th century when in a rural setting weather station reached -25 to -27 several times. http://wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1943&maand=02&dag=15&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref
  20. DTX-YXU-YYZ all same forecast problem, in warm advection period Friday to late o/n, is it sleet, wet snow or rain and snow mixed?? .. urban heat islands will tend to reduce lying snow in metros, would look for 2-4" totals in cities, 4-6" in rural areas, leftover lake effect top ups but snow belt areas will see 6-12" top ups of 8-12 in storm snowfalls for 14-24" totals. For DTX-YXU-YYZ best idea is to warn of moderate snowfall potentials in cities and bad to impossible driving conditions by tail end of storm in snow belt areas to n and w. Snow 10-15 cm potential north of about hwy 7 in s ON, only 2-5 Niagara, 5-10 GTA, but this could bust on high side if warm advection is weak (never seems to happen in current climate). Deep winter is coming, GFS gradually edging towards Euro solution, but in Euro solution you get trade-off of sure blizzard west, sure warm advection mostly rainfall east, so it's a tossup in DTX-YXU-YYZ zone, I would predict along lines of "intervals of rain, sleet and snow, accumulations 5-10 cm" (2-4 in) and stress the travel problems to n and w of zone since it's a weekend and people will be inclined to plan travel in that direction (I would not want to be planning it, roads are going to be closed in snow belt areas by Sat afternoon-evening and returning south later on Sunday will be problematic even if one does get up to ski or cottage areas). I recall bad accident on 400 north of TO in somewhat similar storm march 18 1973, zero vis lake effect on icy snow-covered roadway, trucks piling into stalled cars, on a Sunday afternoon in southbound lanes. On said occasion, Toronto city mostly (1.0") rain, 1-2" snow, suburban areas 0.50" rain, 5" snow, snow belt 8-12" snow.
  21. King euro gives better outcome because it concentrates energy in eastern center now developing over AR while some regional model guidance opts to keep energy balanced with western center now forming over w KS. GFS and Canadian appear to take a compromise position on balance of development, slowly increasing energy balance into eastern center. This can be seen in concentric appearance on Euro and extended double centered appearance on NAM, as well as in differences in central pressure. Solutions with strong primary energy will deepen faster and all-snow regime will consolidate faster also. Euro deepens so rapidly and intensely that it cranks snow out of all available moisture. I would go with something like an 80% Euro outcome as it could be a bit optimistic on balance issue, but the reduction only applies to areas in doubt, 100% Euro would be applicable on colder side of system. For the tricky se Michigan-nw Ohio-ne IN forecast I would go with rain and thunderstorms to about midnight Friday then a rain-snow mix, a windblown 1-3" ground cover by Sat 15z followed by intervals of blowing snow, final stages of powerful squalls dropping 6-12" further west as low moves away. Storm total forecasts: ORD 12, RFD 14, MCI 12, MKE 15, MDW 7, SBN 7, CMI 4, PIA 5, FWA 3, DTW 2, LAN 10, GRR 18, MSN 14, MSP 4, EAU 10, GRB 12, APN 15
  22. GFS cold and intense, near-blizzard conditions would develop. Not having any of what NAM was selling.
  23. The conversation and model spread (even within ensembles) is similar to what I recall last week before New England's snowstorm on the weekend. The outcome was approximately halfway from worst case scenario rain intrusions to best case all-snow, for eastern MA and coastal CT-RI. BOS ended up 3.8", model (and also forum member) forecasts were between zero and 10", snow gradient west and north of BOS quite dramatic, 15" at Worcester and 20" near MA-Nh border. It's difficult to remember which models were saying warm and which were going cold but NAM was definitely not consistent run to run. RGEM was consistent but turned out a bit warmer than outcome. I suspect 18z NAM is outside actual guardrails for this event. If I had to forecast it now, would say 10 inch line Kenosha s.s.w. to ORD and then w.s.w. towards quad cities, max snow 15-20 around MKE and northern lower MI n.e to APN. Dynamic storm with a wicked lake-effect tail for n IN and sw MI. Temps into 47-53F range into nw Ohio could clip DTW briefly, followed by strong winds in occlusion stage, snow into sw ON will cut off near 401 or as far north as hwy 7, but storm could change phase if it creates a coastal in time. Severe storm potential from s.w Ohio to Gulf coast.
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