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Roger Smith

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  1. Also, records were being set for warmth around this part of January, 1967, (68F on 24th) and pattern flipped with the "Chicago blizzard" storm of Jan 26-27. After that it turned very cold. In my recollection, warmth spreading as far east as Regina is not badly correlated with cold weather in the n.e. US, if it gets as far east as Winnipeg to Grand Forks ND then it's more likely to go zonally coast to coast. All depends on the amplitude of the upper ridge near 110W which is very likely to be there as a basic cause of any western Canada warmings. The chinook zone normally ends between Regina and Swift Current SK but really strong chinook warmings can push close enough that temps go to the low 40s (F) in Regina and Estevan. Chinook warmings in southern Alberta can be well into the 60s F and the record in Feb is 72F. I think that was in 1954 which produced a very mild Feb in eastern Canada and the n.e. US as well. So for February, I would say a lot depends on amplitude of what seems to be inevitably a strong ridge forming near the Rockies to west coast. If that ridge is flat-topped and lows continually feed in across Yukon and NWT towards n SK and central manitoba then it will be coast-to-coast warm. If the ridge pushes into the subarctic it will set up a pipeline of cold air from eastern/central Canadian arctic across hudson bay, Quebec and Ontario into the n.e. US. The Pacific lows are forced to go north into Alaska and die out over western arctic islands, or else come back south but as leading cold fronts for super cold outbreaks.
  2. A repeat of 1-23-2016 (obviously not on 1-23-2024) would work almost perfectly for AtlanticWx or psuhoffman. One or two modest KU events in Feb and march plus 2-4 other events would work well for quite a few.
  3. Friday's storm went on to do a number on Ireland today, widespread wind damage, many trees down all over, and gusts to 80 kts on west coast. It is now a 947 mb low n.w. of Scotland. Named Isha by UK and Ireland met services.
  4. Friday's storm went on to do a number on Ireland today, widespread wind damage, many trees down all over, and gusts to 80 kts on west coast. It is now a 947 mb low n.w. of Scotland. Named Isha by UK and Ireland met services.
  5. Looks good, around my part of world we call it November.
  6. I A NOT CO UNICATING ARDLY AT ALL WIT SO E ERE WILL AVE TO UP Y GA E. or fix my keyboard.
  7. Jan 1967 followed similar pattern, quite mild start, some cold and snow mid-month, record warm around Jan 23-26, then followed by about seven weeks of cold and occasional snow lasting well into march. Not saying it will be record mild at any point but years that did set records in period Jan 21 to 31 include 1906, 1909, 1914, 1916, and 1967 all of which had significant cold and snow later. It was quite mild in late Jan 1993 to about Feb 3rd as well.
  8. I think what people were looking for as an IVT was actually the secondary arctic front wrapping around the combined exploding coastal and this trailing inland low which did in fact act like a slider. Wind directions at altitude range from NE at surface to N at 925, NW around 700 mbs to WSW above 500 mbs, so the secondary front is tending to rotate around the southern low and it has a shape somewhat similar to an IVT. What I mean is, no IVT will appear, this secondary arctic front will slowly pull southeast and eventually be offshore, any further snow after frontal band still in progress will be from convective showers in bands streaming through lower gaps in topography to west. This storm has actually played out about like it did here on a 33% scale, except we have higher hills to our west which tended to block out a few squalls that formed off still-open Lake Okanagan. We just cleared out within an hour after snow ended here. After nearly two days of clear skies, getting a very light top up of about 1-2" but I can't direct this one towards you, sorry. After snow on snow it will be cold on cold, to mid-day monday at least. GFS showed one good snow signal on Jan 28th. Pattern will reload, I believe, in mid-Feb.
  9. OPE YOU DONT EAN E (da n keyboard)
  10. NATIONAL WEAT ER SERVICE URGENT ESSAGE: If anyone has (a) a keyboard with all CAPS working and, (b) a snow ruler larger than 3" total capacity, PLEASE DROP OFF AT DCA. T ANKS IN ADVANCE.
  11. I assume "worst case" at NWS means "best case" at American Weather Forum ?
  12. Western low I was discussing yesterday has become a remnant wave (1014 mbs) located in s/c NE and is still producing a swath of 3-5 in snowfalls in n NE, se SD; these will translate into IA-n mo, then IL-IN-KY quite rapidly, as wave is embedded in 120 kt mid-level jet stream. Feature is in transition to become a slider low that will be merging with weak energy tracking e.n.e. across TN towards sw VA. models have adjusted to reality of best moisture availability as I suspected could be the case given trajectory of western feeder moisture ID into WY last night. Think the 2-4 inch forecasts are solid now, and 4-6 is upper end of what this situation can accomplish, except where orographic uplift yields 6-8. No similarity whatsoever to Feb 1979 storm which exploded off the coast and was interacting with a 1050 mb frigid high near BTV and e ON, sQC. This present situation will create a powerful Atlantic low but that will be racing away Friday night towards central Atlantic Ocean and eventually Ireland by Sunday. The 1979 event on Feb 19 was trapped under the much larger arctic high and deepened rapidly off Long Island. So no real relation at all. Will speculate on totals near 3" for BWI, DCA and IAD trending to near 4.5 to 6.0" on md-pa border. Watch progress of plains states wave into IA-IL to see if it is overperforming; I expect similar totals for a narrow band through those states by 03z. If we happen to see 5-8 in amounts it could be a sign of similar outcome in PA-md-DE-sNJ but I am not expecting to see 5-8 from the level of degradation of wave observed to 18z -- worst case scenario of total disappearance was averted, but system went from an 8 or 8.5 to a 3 on energy level scale. It appears capable of regaining some intensity to around 4/10 by 12z.
  13. When I saw how NAm was handling pressure, popping out a low over VA, I expected snowfall zone to be shifting south further, and it looks odd to have the streak of snow in montana and SD when the storm has shifted towards southeast ID and into WY. It would make more sense to depict snow in NE, s IA, c IL, IN and then KY, WV and VA. Let's see what GFS does in response to what I would expect to be much better sampling of western low's dynamics now that it has been over land for nearly 24h. Skies cleared out here with a measured 17.5" of dry powder, I don't do core samples but it shovels easily so I would guess perhaps 0.60" to 0.80" liquid. No wind so it just settles slowly. Would keep an eye on snow reports later today from places in NE and IA into central IL-IN, if you see 2-4" amounts it may be a sign the fast-paced low is keeping some organization and could redevelop by evening in Ohio, nKY, WV.
  14. First and last call: anyone getting an inch out of this will be super lucky. It's all at my place. I could drop some off just call 1-800-GOT-SNOW. Seriously, I hope it works out better, if only this departing low (now near Yellowstone Park) wasn't being sheared to bits by terrain, and forced to compete for space on Thursday with an arctic high, and it could just glide across the central plains states to VA, then I would say 5-8 inches easy. And it could almost work out that way, a surface circulation may not necessarily always be in evidence, but if the vorticity stayed intact and could trigger a low in KY or WV by late tomorrow, that is a route to getting 3-5 inches at least. But I have a feeling the GFS is correct and it will be a weak norlun feature into Ohio, giving PA-NJ-NYC 1-2" and your region Tr to 1.0" in general (agree on 4-6 west of Blue Ridge). Fingers crossed this plucky little storm can find a way across the hostile arid plains. I did so there's that.
  15. The warmer interval still has some colder days in the mix and very cold air masses tracking southeast into New England and eastern Canada. Any small variations in 7-10 day outcomes from model guidance could bring significant errors in predictions with this tight gradient developing. It looks like several cases of mild air sauntering along oblivious to the presence of predator cold air and I don't totally trust model guidance in such situations, it could bust either way -- the cold could be modelled too aggressively, or the cold could push back harder. Snow has now covered most of the previously bare ground in central regions and more snow is coming there. I suspect there will be two more significant cold and snow intervals, one each in Feb and march.
  16. Slow down, you move too fast. I guess the NAm map could be accurate as a nowcast but bear in mind, where it shows near-zero snow n.w. of Idaho panhandle we have 18" on ground and it's still snowing now. So I wonder about its accuracy downstream into places where snow is just starting. I would expect parts of ID and WY to get almost same as here.
  17. After first half of January (1-16) we have these anomalies and projections ... ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ (anom 16d) ______ +2.5 _ +4.4 _ +4.8 ___ -1.1 _ -1.0 _ -4.3 __-12.3 _ -5.0 _ -6.0* __ (p anom 31d) ____ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ____ -1.0 _ -1.0 _ -2.5 __ -4.5 _ -1.0 _ -2.5 _end of Jan anoms _+2.3 _ +3.3 _ +3.2 ____ +1.1 _ -0.5 _ -3.0 __ -3.5 _ -0.8 _ -1.0** * SEA missing data 3rd, a mild day nearby locations, assessed as +4 and reported anomaly -6.7 adjusted. ** SEA still missing data 3rd, mild day nearby locations, assessed as +4 and reported anomaly -1.2 adjusted. _17th __ Take about 0.5 to 1.0 off these reported anomalies after today's large negative anomalies (DCA was 17 below normal). DEN on the other hand gained about 1.0 today (+3 anom). Cold to very cold for a few more days in any areas, then generally milder again although a few cold days in the mix. I have basically assumed an average for -1 for rest of January to balance these intervals out. I went with +1 rest of the way for Phoenix and +3 for Denver. We are all going to get smoked by RodneyS for DEN barring a miraculous warming trend, and max 60 may not save us (if RodneyS scores >60). Wxallannj and StormC also are poised to apply misery. _31st ___ Final anomalies are posted, adjusted for SEA because of one day missing data. At DEN, despite last ten days being generally 10-15 above normal, cold was so intense mid-month that anomaly ended up as -3.5. This was also a factor in ORD with three days near -30 anomalies mid-month setting up a recovery from a very low value that ended up a little above average eventually. Snowfall to date (contest post is in Dec and will be merged with this info in the Feb thread. Snowfall to Jan 31, 2024 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV _ 7.9 __ 2.3 __ 9.2 ___ 20.0 _ 19.5 _ 53.6 ___ 15.4 _ 3.0 _ 27.8
  18. It indicates fluffy snow that appeared 0.2" deep by ruler but when melted down was less than 0.01" which is a trace of rain too (trace as you know probably is any observation that measures less than 0.05" of liquid. I read a comment on NE forum from somebody in VT saying 7" of snow melted down to 0.20" so at same rate 0.2" would melt to about 0.06" so it must have been even fluffier.
  19. What you need is for weather (snowstorm) here in s/c BC to translate e.s.e. without entirely losing its identity over the plains states as most guidance has been suggesting, and only a shadow of this aggressive system (12" snow in 16h and 5-10 more expected) surviving ... this is because no coherent center of low pressure is able to keep going (on guidance) and the energy almost dissipates before trying to recover over Ohio and s PA on its way to join forces with an offshore low that won't in and of itself be a snow producer, your snow if any would come from any processes within the inland secondary (which is the shadow of this sizeable western snowfall associated with a low tracking east into WA and later ID, then s.e. to WY tonight). You might see 0.5 to 1.5 inches from an inverted trof (Norlun) situation or a weak circulation forming at last minute before being sucked out to sea, or you could see 2-4 inches from a more organized system, top end would be 4-8 inches if my low gets more sustainable beyond about Scottsbluff to Goodland KS and can keep trucking east on I-80 as more than just elevated virga and light snow which is what is being suggested on a lot of guidance now. It's too bad because 90% of lows like this keep an identity and keep going across central plains states. This one seems to be dumping its load over Pac NW and s BC and giving up the fight. Best results for you would be to see models tracking any kind of coherent low east from WY-NE or even CO-KS regions on Thursday into IL-IN by early Friday. I will do a snow dance when I go out to shovel out my car later. (s.o.g. in the bush here is now close to 30" and 25" of it fell since Jan 6, it was quite bare frozen snow before).
  20. 12 inches of powder in last 16 hours and looking at 5-10 additional before it shifts southeast. Enjoy.
  21. Snow stopped falling just after end of Tuesday in n.eastern Maine, but here's a roundup of reported values (including Monday Jan 15 where snow or precip began before midnight): JAN 15-16 Snowfalls and Liquid Equivalents Loc ___ snow _ liq.equiv. __ portion on Jan 15 BGR ___ 4.8" (0.39" l.e.) __ plus trace snow Jan 17 CAR ___ 9.0" (0.62" l.e.) __ 10.1" (0.67" counting Jan 17) PWM ___ 2.8" (0.36" l.e.) CON ___ 5.1" (0.41" l.e.) BTV ___ 5.1" (0.20" l.e.) incl (0.1" on 0.01" l.e. 15th) BOS ___ 3.5" (0.56" l.e.) PVD ___ 3.4" (0.75" l.e.) incl (0.1" on 0.01" l.e. 15th) ORH ___ 3.6" (0.46" l.e.) BDL ___ 2.0" (0.31" l.e.) (Tr l.e. 15th) ALB ___ 3.4" (0.25" l.e.) BGM ___ 5.2" (0.21" l.e.) AVP ___ 2.2" (0.19" l.e.) incl (0.2" on Trace l.e. 15th) BDR ___ 2.0" (0.30" l.e.) incl (0.2" on 0.01" l.e. 15th) ISP ____ 2.3" (0.53" l.e.) incl (0.5" on 0.07" l.e. 15th) JFK ___ 2.0" (0.42" l.e.) incl (0.7" on 0.06" l.e. 15th) NYC ___ 1.7" (0.32" l.e.) incl (0.4" on 0.04" l.e. 15th) LGA ___ 2.3" (0.37" l.e.) incl (0.3" on 0.04" l.e. 15th) EWR ___ 2.1" (0.27" l.e.) incl (0.4" on 0.03" l.e. 15th) ACY ___ 1.3" (0.39" l.e.) incl (1.0" on 0.12" l.e. 15th) PHL ___ 3.3" (0.42" l.e.) incl (1.5" on 0.19" l.e. 15th) ABE ___ 3.0" (0.29" l.e.) incl (0.6" on 0.06" l.e. 15th) MDT ___ 3.1" (0.30" l.e.) incl (0.8" on 0.07" l.e. 15th) BWI ___ 4.9" (0.48" l.e.) incl (4.1" on 0.36" l.e. 15th) DCA ___ 4.1" (0.35" l.e.) incl (3.4" on 0.31" l.e. 15th) IAD ___ 4.4" (0.34" l.e.) incl (4.1" on 0.31" l.e. 15th) RIC ___ 0.5" (0.35" l.e.) incl (0.5" on 0.14" l.e. 15th)
  22. Snow stopped falling before end of Tuesday in n.eastern Maine, but here's a roundup of reported values (including Monday Jan 15 where snow or precip began before midnight): JAN 15-16 Snowfalls and Liquid Equivalents Loc ___ snow _ liq.equiv. __ portion on Jan 15 BGR ___ 4.8" (0.39" l.e.) ___ trace snow Jan 17 CAR ___ 9.0" (0.62" l.e.) ___ total 10.1" (0.67" counting Jan 17) PWM ___ 2.8" (0.36" l.e.) CON ___ 5.1" (0.41" l.e.) BTV ___ 5.1" (0.20" l.e.) incl (0.1" on 0.01" l.e. 15th) BOS ___ 3.5" (0.56" l.e.) PVD ___ 3.4" (0.75" l.e.) incl (0.1" on 0.01" l.e. 15th) ORH ___ 3.6" (0.46" l.e.) BDL ___ 2.0" (0.31" l.e.) (Tr l.e. 15th) ALB ___ 3.4" (0.25" l.e.) BGM ___ 5.2" (0.21" l.e.) AVP ___ 2.2" (0.19" l.e.) incl (0.2" on Trace l.e. 15th) BDR ___ 2.0" (0.30" l.e.) incl (0.2" on 0.01" l.e. 15th) ISP ____ 2.3" (0.53" l.e.) incl (0.5" on 0.07" l.e. 15th) JFK ___ 2.0" (0.42" l.e.) incl (0.7" on 0.06" l.e. 15th) NYC ___ 1.7" (0.32" l.e.) incl (0.4" on 0.04" l.e. 15th) LGA ___ 2.3" (0.37" l.e.) incl (0.3" on 0.04" l.e. 15th) EWR ___ 2.1" (0.27" l.e.) incl (0.4" on 0.03" l.e. 15th) ACY ___ 1.3" (0.39" l.e.) incl (1.0" on 0.12" l.e. 15th) PHL ___ 3.3" (0.42" l.e.) incl (1.5" on 0.19" l.e. 15th) ABE ___ 3.0" (0.29" l.e.) incl (0.6" on 0.06" l.e. 15th) MDT ___ 3.1" (0.30" l.e.) incl (0.8" on 0.07" l.e. 15th) BWI ___ 4.9" (0.48" l.e.) incl (4.1" on 0.36" l.e. 15th) DCA ___ 4.1" (0.35" l.e.) incl (3.4" on 0.31" l.e. 15th) IAD ___ 4.4" (0.34" l.e.) incl (4.1" on 0.31" l.e. 15th) RIC ___ 0.5" (0.35" l.e.) incl (0.5" on 0.14" l.e. 15th)
  23. Snow stopped falling just after end of Tuesday in n.eastern Maine, and here's a roundup of reported values (including Monday Jan 15 where snow or precip began before midnight): JAN 15-16 Snowfalls and Liquid Equivalents Loc ___ snow _ liq.equiv. __ portion on Jan 15 BGR ___ 4.8" (0.39" l.e.) __ Tr snow Jan 17 CAR ___ 9.0" (0.62" l.e.) __ total 10.1" (0.67" counting Jan 17) PWM ___ 2.8" (0.36" l.e.) CON ___ 5.1" (0.41" l.e.) BTV ___ 5.1" (0.20" l.e.) incl (0.1" on 0.01" l.e. 15th) BOS ___ 3.5" (0.56" l.e.) PVD ___ 3.4" (0.75" l.e.) incl (0.1" on 0.01" l.e. 15th) ORH ___ 3.6" (0.46" l.e.) BDL ___ 2.0" (0.31" l.e.) (Tr l.e. 15th) ALB ___ 3.4" (0.25" l.e.) BGM ___ 5.2" (0.21" l.e.) AVP ___ 2.2" (0.19" l.e.) incl (0.2" on Trace l.e. 15th) BDR ___ 2.0" (0.30" l.e.) incl (0.2" on 0.01" l.e. 15th) ISP ____ 2.3" (0.53" l.e.) incl (0.5" on 0.07" l.e. 15th) JFK ___ 2.0" (0.42" l.e.) incl (0.7" on 0.06" l.e. 15th) NYC ___ 1.7" (0.32" l.e.) incl (0.4" on 0.04" l.e. 15th) LGA ___ 2.3" (0.37" l.e.) incl (0.3" on 0.04" l.e. 15th) EWR ___ 2.1" (0.27" l.e.) incl (0.4" on 0.03" l.e. 15th) ACY ___ 1.3" (0.39" l.e.) incl (1.0" on 0.12" l.e. 15th) PHL ___ 3.3" (0.42" l.e.) incl (1.5" on 0.19" l.e. 15th) ABE ___ 3.0" (0.29" l.e.) incl (0.6" on 0.06" l.e. 15th) MDT ___ 3.1" (0.30" l.e.) incl (0.8" on 0.07" l.e. 15th) BWI ___ 4.9" (0.48" l.e.) incl (4.1" on 0.36" l.e. 15th) DCA ___ 4.1" (0.35" l.e.) incl (3.4" on 0.31" l.e. 15th) IAD ___ 4.4" (0.34" l.e.) incl (4.1" on 0.31" l.e. 15th) RIC ___ 0.5" (0.35" l.e.) incl (0.5" on 0.14" l.e. 15th)
  24. Snow stopped falling just after end of Tuesday in n.eastern Maine, and here's a roundup of reported values on Jan 15-16 (including Monday Jan 15 where snow or precip began before midnight): JAN 15-16 Snowfalls and Liquid Equivalents Loc ___ snow _ liq.equiv. __ portion on Jan 15 BGR ___ 4.8" (0.39" l.e.) __ trace fell Jan 17 CAR ___ 9.0" (0.62" l.e.) __ 10.1" (0.67" counting Jan 17) PWM ___ 2.8" (0.36" l.e.) CON ___ 5.1" (0.41" l.e.) BTV ___ 5.1" (0.20" l.e.) incl (0.1" on 0.01" l.e. 15th) BOS ___ 3.5" (0.56" l.e.) PVD ___ 3.4" (0.75" l.e.) incl (0.1" on 0.01" l.e. 15th) ORH ___ 3.6" (0.46" l.e.) BDL ___ 2.0" (0.31" l.e.) (Tr l.e. 15th) ALB ___ 3.4" (0.25" l.e.) BGM ___ 5.2" (0.21" l.e.) AVP ___ 2.2" (0.19" l.e.) incl (0.2" on Trace l.e. 15th) BDR ___ 2.0" (0.30" l.e.) incl (0.2" on 0.01" l.e. 15th) ISP ____ 2.3" (0.53" l.e.) incl (0.5" on 0.07" l.e. 15th) JFK ___ 2.0" (0.42" l.e.) incl (0.7" on 0.06" l.e. 15th) NYC ___ 1.7" (0.32" l.e.) incl (0.4" on 0.04" l.e. 15th) LGA ___ 2.3" (0.37" l.e.) incl (0.3" on 0.04" l.e. 15th) EWR ___ 2.1" (0.27" l.e.) incl (0.4" on 0.03" l.e. 15th) ACY ___ 1.3" (0.39" l.e.) incl (1.0" on 0.12" l.e. 15th) PHL ___ 3.3" (0.42" l.e.) incl (1.5" on 0.19" l.e. 15th) ABE ___ 3.0" (0.29" l.e.) incl (0.6" on 0.06" l.e. 15th) MDT ___ 3.1" (0.30" l.e.) incl (0.8" on 0.07" l.e. 15th) BWI ___ 4.9" (0.48" l.e.) incl (4.1" on 0.36" l.e. 15th) DCA ___ 4.1" (0.35" l.e.) incl (3.4" on 0.31" l.e. 15th) IAD ___ 4.4" (0.34" l.e.) incl (4.1" on 0.31" l.e. 15th) RIC ___ 0.5" (0.35" l.e.) incl (0.5" on 0.14" l.e. 15th)
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