Jonathan

5 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Dr Jonathan Wall:

Upper air pattern is favorable for a snowstorm in NC 1/17+ (see analog on right for big NC snows) — there’s just one problem: we need a STJ s/w instead of a northern stream dominate s/w and so far that classic split flow has yet to appear. If pattern holds, possibly 1/20-1/30?

 

To build upon this (I'm not J Wall btw lol), if we look at the Teleconnections from the 00z EURO Ensemble, we see hints of this also.

First, the PNA. It's been a huge thorn in our side but it finally looks to move positive by JAN 20.

This is huge for us, especially in combination with a big -NAO that looks to relax a bit (but still be negative) towards the same period. Per Tomer Burg, winter storms in the eastern U.S. tend to pop up when a -NAO relaxes a bit and we see this happen in that JAN 17-20 timeframe as well:

Rounding out our other main teleconnections, both the EPO and AO look to remain negative throughout the period as well.

With all that said, perhaps we sneak out a winter storm for the southeast (and possibly up the east coast, Miller A style) in that JAN 15-20ish period.

Can't even get a good ZR event here anymore. In the last 12 hours, my .25"+ of ice is looking real .10"ish. By tonight it'll be all rain and 38°.

Until we get a +PNA, you can kiss any chance of snow goodbye in the southeast, and not a single piece of data hints at a +PNA developing at any time.

MJO is heading into warm phases for the dead of winter.

It's ok, Fab Feb will save us. Always the best month in a Nino! Except it's barely a Nino anymore and will be a Nina by late-Feb.

I also love watching Texas and Arkansas rack up on snow while being 5-10 degrees of longitude south of me. Storm track is from Louisiana to Pennsylvania.

I'll be glad when climate change puts us all out of our misery. Hopefully it accelerates even more than it already is. Get me off this stupid, burning rock as quickly as possible.

Serenity now.

6 hours ago, CaryWx said:

Looks pretty good after ~12th-15th timeframe

Then when we get to 1/12, we'll have kicked the can another two weeks down the road and saying "yeah, it sucks we lost the first 1/3 of winter but the pattern by the end of the month looks promising." Why does anyone put themselves through such torture. The snow line will be north of Kentucky in 5 years or less.

With that said, the 12z Euro had 15/50 ensemble members with accumulating snow in the foothills and western piedmont (I looked at KMTV Martinsville VA since it's close enough to the mountains but is still considered western piedmont. So there's that, I guess.

3 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

The Color Purple 

It's beautiful. Frame it, because we'll never see it under 240hr. 

Super Ultra Mega Generational Nino on the way to rain (literally) on everyone's parade for the next two years.

Winter is coming...

12 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

A few more NW trends and Minnesota/Illinois are in the game. 

You know what WON'T trend NW?

That system everyone was watching for 12/26. It's now out to sea on all data and you can kiss that goodbye.

A tale as old as time. We see this happen with EVERY potential system DEC-FEB every winter. Climate change and ENSO background state will outweigh every positive teleconnection you can have. Ninas gonna Nina. There's a reason we don't get cold and snow in Ninas. We get baited by these computers EVERY time and swear we won't do it again.

This "cold shot/cold pattern" will be a 2-day deal on the models by early next week and we'll be wondering why we're running the AC at Christmas/New Year's yet again. One thing I REALLY can't believe is that the models even fooled Brad Panovich. He's usually rock-steady in the "nothing's gonna happen, social media is just being crazy with snow maps."  He took the bait yesterday, made a YT video and everything. That's something you don't see often. The models get us Every. Single. Time.

Yesterday: Snow
Today: Mix
Tomorrow: Rain
The Next Day: Tornado outbreak
GFS folds to Euro

EVERY. TIME. Winter is so awesome!

Next!

GFS unfortunately is on an island. Worse than an island, a different solar system. It has zero support and until it gets some it must be treated for what it always has been; garbage. Waste of taxpayer money.

Somebody shut this model down. I have never seen a more insane setup for a dreadful Euro run in all my days.  

YIKES! 0z Euro absolutely craps the bucket with a warm rainstorm 12/22.  

GFS Ensembles were awful as well, cutting VA's snow totals in half and almost removing them completely for NC.

The 18z GEFS is much more robust with the extent of the freezing rain Thursday, getting all the way down into central NC vs the 12z GEFS which barely made it to the NC border.

Interesting.

If the 18z GFS happens I might die. Holy smokes what a teaser.  

It's a real shame that the MJO is basically allergic to phases 7-8-1 anymore. You hardly ever see it in general, and you almost never see it in winter. I'm guessing this has to do with climate change causing warmer SSTs in certain areas causing more tropical forcing "there" than elsewhere.

Regarding Wed-Thu system next week:

- THREE straight runs of mixed precip in the CAD regions on the GFS
- TWO straight runs of a little ice in said CAD regions on the Canadian
- EURO isn't having any of it. Classic battle between the globals NA vs EU.

Ninas gonna Nina!

17 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Would love for that GFS run to verify. Definitely need to see the Euro show something to get excited...

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For sure. Euro is flatter, weaker and warmer during the day Friday.

I know who my bet would be on, but hey at least maybe it's a sign of a potential early start to winter before we wear shorts on Christmas.  

GFS just keeps on with this Friday system...another solid hit on the 12z run.

I feel if you're west of a line from say Richmond to Raleigh, we're pretty much done unless we get some big trends the next 48 hours. This thing is looking flat and weak until it's off the coast. Lots of energy being left behind.

Congrats, Myrtle Beach?

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Euro not digging as far SW... not a good sign so far...

Not a good sign for us*

Looking like a huge cave-job to the iNfErIoR GFS. Congrats, E NC you guys deserve one.

17 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Boy if there was ever a time the Euro homers need it to be right…

Well at this range it's the proven best model in the biz.

1.5" and still snowing moderately. Breezy and COLD just across the border northwest of Martinsville.