jaxjagman

These are just predictions based on models into late winter into spring.It's not rare various sites fine tune their EMS in the winter time here.There is no threat of severe weather upcoming with the cold established at this time

Looks like an early severe threat into the Valley and possibly later on into the spring time.Enso looks like a transition from a more Nina pattern into a more Nino pattern in the summer,could be a crap year into the plains the way it looks right now.Either way winter time into spring time is showing some potential as it looks right now

Nice pics !!That was just so cool to witness.Wish we could do it again tomorrow

CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z AUG18 TOTAL BNDRY LOW MID HIGH CONV 6 HR SFC CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD QPF RHU (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (PCT) FRI 12Z 18-AUG 75 53 39 31 0.00 98 FRI 18Z 18-AUG 83 30 0 75 0.01 54 SAT 00Z 19-AUG 0 0 0 0 0.00 71 SAT 06Z 19-AUG 13 0 0 13 0.00 76 SAT 12Z 19-AUG 11 0 10 2 0.00 87 SAT 18Z 19-AUG 28 21 18 0 0.00 53 SUN 00Z 20-AUG 8 0 3 6 0.02 84 SUN 06Z 20-AUG 0 0 0 0 0.00 95 SUN 12Z 20-AUG 76 76 0 0 0.00 93 SUN 18Z 20-AUG 35 13 2 24 0.00 42 MON 00Z 21-AUG 11 0 4 8 0.00 72 MON 06Z 21-AUG 35 0 0 35 0.00 83 MON 12Z 21-AUG 2 1 1 1 0.00 85 MON 18Z 21-AUG 5 0 5 0 0.00 39 TUE 00Z 22-AUG 16 0 15 1 0.00 68 TUE 06Z 22-AUG 73 0 3 72 0.00 80 TUE 12Z 22-AUG 5 1 2 3 0.00 85 TUE 18Z 22-AUG 25 18 17 0 0.00 50 WED 00Z 23-AUG 75 0 25 69 0.03 72 WED 06Z 23-AUG 11 0 4 7 0.00 88 WED 12Z 23-AUG 47 29 19 25 0.01 93 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CSV LAT= 35.95 LON= -85.08 ELE= 1880 12Z AUG18 TOTAL BNDRY LOW MID HIGH CONV 6 HR SFC CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD QPF RHU (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (PCT) FRI 12Z 18-AUG 62 53 36 9 0.00 98 FRI 18Z 18-AUG 33 30 1 4 0.02 64 SAT 00Z 19-AUG 1 1 1 0 0.00 78 SAT 06Z 19-AUG 63 1 0 62 0.00 85 SAT 12Z 19-AUG 10 0 10 0 0.00 85 SAT 18Z 19-AUG 10 0 8 1 0.00 49 SUN 00Z 20-AUG 20 7 15 3 0.00 81 SUN 06Z 20-AUG 13 2 0 11 0.00 90 SUN 12Z 20-AUG 1 1 0 0 0.00 89 SUN 18Z 20-AUG 17 15 12 0 0.00 43 MON 00Z 21-AUG 2 2 1 0 0.00 83 MON 06Z 21-AUG 1 0 1 0 0.00 81 MON 12Z 21-AUG 6 0 0 6 0.00 76 MON 18Z 21-AUG 18 0 0 18 0.00 36 TUE 00Z 22-AUG 4 1 2 1 0.00 79 TUE 06Z 22-AUG 20 1 3 17 0.00 67 TUE 12Z 22-AUG 5 0 1 4 0.00 85 TUE 18Z 22-AUG 19 12 15 0 0.00 52 WED 00Z 23-AUG 32 4 27 7 0.01 77 WED 06Z 23-AUG 22 0 10 14 0.00 93 WED 12Z 23-AUG 74 72 4 4 0.00 95 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z AUG18 TOTAL BNDRY LOW MID HIGH CONV 6 HR SFC CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD QPF RHU (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (PCT) FRI 12Z 18-AUG 97 73 41 92 0.00 92 FRI 18Z 18-AUG 36 17 30 1 0.05 70 SAT 00Z 19-AUG 11 11 3 0 0.02 80 SAT 06Z 19-AUG 2 2 0 0 0.00 90 SAT 12Z 19-AUG 14 13 0 2 0.00 89 SAT 18Z 19-AUG 16 0 2 14 0.00 50 SUN 00Z 20-AUG 8 0 5 3 0.00 84 SUN 06Z 20-AUG 34 1 1 33 0.00 92 SUN 12Z 20-AUG 31 31 0 0 0.00 93 SUN 18Z 20-AUG 18 4 16 0 0.00 46 MON 00Z 21-AUG 6 0 3 3 0.00 79 MON 06Z 21-AUG 0 0 0 0 0.00 85 MON 12Z 21-AUG 10 3 0 7 0.00 84 MON 18Z 21-AUG 28 1 20 9 0.00 47 TUE 00Z 22-AUG 11 0 8 4 0.00 79 TUE 06Z 22-AUG 6 3 4 1 0.00 87 TUE 12Z 22-AUG 8 0 1 7 0.00 84 TUE 18Z 22-AUG 18 0 8 11 0.00 51 WED 00Z 23-AUG 16 5 15 0 0.00 75 WED 06Z 23-AUG 48 1 13 41 0.00 86 WED 12Z 23-AUG 27 14 4 14 0.01 92 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 12Z AUG18 TOTAL BNDRY LOW MID HIGH CONV 6 HR SFC CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD QPF RHU (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (PCT) FRI 12Z 18-AUG 89 25 24 84 0.00 96 FRI 18Z 18-AUG 55 26 15 36 0.01 58 SAT 00Z 19-AUG 0 0 0 0 0.00 68 SAT 06Z 19-AUG 15 0 0 14 0.00 84 SAT 12Z 19-AUG 25 25 0 0 0.00 92 SAT 18Z 19-AUG 15 1 2 12 0.00 42 SUN 00Z 20-AUG 31 0 22 11 0.00 62 SUN 06Z 20-AUG 15 1 4 11 0.00 86 SUN 12Z 20-AUG 16 15 1 0 0.00 91 SUN 18Z 20-AUG 16 12 10 0 0.00 41 MON 00Z 21-AUG 2 0 0 2 0.00 60 MON 06Z 21-AUG 0 0 0 0 0.00 78 MON 12Z 21-AUG 7 0 0 7 0.00 83 MON 18Z 21-AUG 32 0 32 0 0.00 37 TUE 00Z 22-AUG 23 1 22 0 0.00 63 TUE 06Z 22-AUG 3 0 3 0 0.00 78 TUE 12Z 22-AUG 1 0 0 0 0.00 86 TUE 18Z 22-AUG 23 1 23 0 0.00 44 WED 00Z 23-AUG 70 4 19 65 0.01 72 WED 06Z 23-AUG 48 0 3 47 0.00 90 WED 12Z 23-AUG 15 7 3 6 0.00 92

Williamson County is still having school Monday.Now by all reports i've read, 1M-1.5M is being predicted to flock into Nashville.I think i'm just going to give my kids a eclipse day "no school".I can't imagine the traffic. Just checked my deck out and the sun is right on top of us basically.Going to have the "Happy Water"chilled .Gonna just stay put.

Cold front dropping down think our area in Tn might be ok,it's not written in stone THOUGH.I'd be more concerned for our folks NE GA and SC.Below map is total cloud cover,Euro

Euro today shows a system getting into the Yellow Sea,Korea, possibly the Sea of Japan.There's going to be a ridge in the SW.Pulling for Jeffs forecast ,by the looks on how fast the pattern moves could very well be the 22nd

Hope you're right.Still looks to me though we could be in a more S/SW flow,maybe more diurnal?.Not sure of the tropics but by the looks the CCKW in the GOM and or Caribbean seems possible before hand

GEFS is now is now in the range today,long range though looking at Asia.Maybe a clean FRONTPA right now as you mentioned above,but right now looks to be extended into the Korea Bay which would be N of the Valley which would possibly put us in a more S/SW flow.Might not be bad though with more diurnal driven late afternoons stuff.To early to tell but if that CCKW kicks off something and that makes it into the GOM,we'll be inundated with clouds possibly if it does

Looks like a strong CCKW upcoming,gonna dampen our spirits?

Starting to get into the ensembles range but much to me depends on what the tropics do in this time frame and where the MJO is.Right now to me looks like the heights are rising into Mongolia and China long range,this would be good news to me with a trough into the east mid month followed by some sort of ridge possibly,but its kinda moot right now,its the GEFS

Gonna find a good pokemon stop and play while i wait

http://www.eclipse2017.org/2017/path_through_the_US.htm#Tennessee http://www.eclipse2017.org/2017/path_through_the_US.htm

i keep reading this thread and get more hungry every time..lol

Tornado Outbreaks Data http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/outbreaks/

Joe Renken and Josh Herman Bearing Sea Blog http://beringsearule.blogspot.com/p/bsr-forecast-maps.html http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/bsr/ http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1516/index.html

Possibly looking like some intrusion of some high clouds Sunday for the TLE,especially with the Euro

Another tool from the NCDA.Using Lawrenceburg as an example when the F5 hit there back in 1998 It's easier to put on all events for what state and county you use http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/choosedates.jsp?statefips=47%2CTENNESSEE# Edit:The F5 in Lawrenceburg could have been much worse than anyone could have imagined.Adjacent to it's path was the city Ethridge which is home to one of the largest Amish communities in the state of Tn,luckily it just went through the fields basically.As most people know,Amish builds their own homes and basically they never would have known what could have been without electricity or any source of communication.

Storm Data AND UNUSUAL WEATHER PHENOMENA WITH LATE REPORTS AND CORRECTIONS http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/sd/sd.html

https://www.windyty.com/?clouds,36.067,-86.748,4 Another fun tool to play with

http://home.cc.umanitoba.ca/~jander/tot2017/tse17intro.htm We already got a 63% chance of rain..lol

The lunar is in Sept.,27,28,this year.Here's some of the next events coming up with maps http://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/in/usa/nashville

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46379-sharppy/ Chinook posted the link to the beta SHARPpy,much easier to use than the older version

Welcome Olhausen