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Posts posted by CaryWx
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57 minutes ago, eyewall said:
Is being below freezing this morning the pattern change?
Overcast and cold. This is your winter 2024 snow day. A real dry bob.
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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:
For what it’s worth, 18z GFS inched closer again
closer to what exactly?
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32 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:
I hate you youngons missed some of the monsters from the 70s and 80s. 93 is in a category of its own though.
I didn't miss the '93 storm. It missed me.
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2 hours ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:
I don’t know the ages of members on this site but I would venture to say many were not around in 1993.I remember it as we didn’t receive any snow that winter before March.We had warm temperatures in February too.
My wife and I went to Maryland valentines weekend that year.
40’s and rain at home but major snowstorm on 81 in Va.
I go back to the carolina crusher of '73. Was in the southeastern part of the state.
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56 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:
It cannot be
understatedunderstood how bad this hurricane season could be with the base stateofif the Atlantic and La Niña forecast is to come back.ftfy
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No, as of these runs it certainly is not.
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2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:
If yall want to argue climate change then make a thread. Please keep it out of the mid range thread please.
I agree completely. Would also add not to bring it up as a contributing factor here either. Blame what's happening in the forecast models (Plenty showing on those currently to go around )
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16 minutes ago, BooneWX said:
Respectfully - you can’t make a realistic climate change argument by comparing the Sierra’s to our region.
the bottom line is that our oceans are scorching. Atlantic sea surface temps are on pace with JUNE in February. Our poor pacific pattern is likely caused by how much warmth the basin is holding as well. Snowfall in the south has been trending downward the past 20 years and extreme temps are trending up. This isn’t a “bad spell,” this is climatology. So yes, I can make reasonable assumptions based on climatological facts.
But you cannot blame climate change for every anomaly in weather behavior either
Interesting you chose the word "scorching"
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45 minutes ago, BooneWX said:
No need for me to pile on but there’s not much to see here. The cold pattern looks seasonal at best and seasonal isn’t going to get it done.
Not to be doom and gloom but I said a few weeks ago we would all have to adjust our expectations with climate change and here we are. Winter conditions are going to be increasingly unlikely outside of the mts and that’s just our reality. When we do get snow (and we will), enjoy the hell out of it because you’ll never know how long it’ll be until the next round.
Geez! Everything is not climate change. You think they are up in the Sierra Nevada's right now grousing about lack of snow and some sort of climate change responsibility. Or deep dark Siberia? Unless of course you want to blame their excessive snow on climate change then I have no faith in the blame claim game here. You can attribute every abnormal or foul weather event to climate change. Makes it easy and convenient for the cc evangelists out there. Can we blame good comfortable weather stretches on climate change too? Maybe just pick any event in life that is not perfect. "Hey, woke up constipated this morning. I blame climate change."
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18 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:
Exactly, it will become much more difficult for it to snow here. Virginia is what NC used to be like, chances wise. NC is like what SC used to be like. Keep shifting things a state down for each state. Warmer and warmer here.
Maybe. maybe not. you going to tell me in another generation upstate NY will be like Va? I doubt it.
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19 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:
Literally says “what pattern change?”
it's too fast
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4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:
The MJO hasn't and isn't the only driver this winter and the lead plots have been horrible this winter. There are MULTIPLE variables in the coming up pattern.
No kidding. Go back and look at some of those projections for late Jan with high amp in phase-6. Never happened as I thought it wouldn't
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6 minutes ago, DocATL said:
The way the MJO is looking I’d be weary about anything wintery in late Feb.
.Unless trolling. It's going to be in phase 8 albeit low low p8
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verbatim run right? Nice for NC. Just outside the 10day
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Think of it -- An 18z gfs ops run will lead the way!
Just doesn't have a ring to it does it.
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In fairness we should wait for Coach McGuirk's counter presentation data.
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18 minutes ago, westmc9th said:
We're looking right at Mid-February on the models now and just need to come to an agreement on whether it'll be 40° and rainy or.... 50° and rainy. Really exciting developments.
For Asheville?
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8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:
It does look pretty good in theory. Ensembles leave on the table the general evolution we've faced. Cutter on the front side, cold air gets established but too dry and HP keeps waves from developing in the Gulf, pattern relaxes and the firehose starts back up but there isn't any blocking high to lock cold in place. Still, overall the best window we've seen all winter with cold and moisture linking up on at least some guidance.
We have decent blocking in Greenland coming up. -nao
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5 minutes ago, eyewall said:
I can't buy in at 300 hours.
Give it a few days
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Runs are really starting to pick up on the displacement. Somebody may want to get their seatbelts clipped in the next couple weeks
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18 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:
I’m willing to wait a bit myself. Operationals are all over the place while the Ensembles and weeklies have been consistent with the pattern turning more conducive towards wintry possibilities.
Our area has another window coming up after that it's a crap shoot for sure
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7 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:
2024: +TBD/0.0”
I’m calling it. Jokes aside, we’re going to have to see Ops start to pick up on something soon or this period is cooked. Maybe we get BN but it takes much more than that to snow and it’s either going to start to be sniffed out or we’re onto spring (most probably already are)
ops are finding it
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6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:
That 10-12th period has the potential to challenge some record warmth. That’s a beast of a HP over the Bahamas and as of now it looks like there will be a lot of sun during that hard southerly flow. Wouldn’t surprise me to see some temps close to 80 with that look
Might enjoy the break if we are tracking a good one inside 7 days at that point
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
in Southeastern States
Posted
Why should we believe these weeklies now for March? Color me skeptical at this point