David Reimer

Recon is departing and heading home.

Outbreak? Since when did this forum turn into the YouTube emulation channel for RHY and Timmer? Really don't expect a 'outbreak' of tornadoes - though a decent number of pocket-change size hail and wind reports are possible. To be honest, gradient winds ahead of the squall line may be a more substantial problem. 

An interesting fall severe weather setup. The kinematics are certainly going to be there, but the specific thermodynamic mix and surface features remain questionable. Certainly a beautiful upper-level system and a decent looking chance for at least two days of severe weather potential. Whether or not we end up with chaseable tornadic supercells before a mixed-bag of vomit thrown on the storm reports map (QLCS galore) will probably come down to the 'day of'. 

Insane pressure gradient with Sam. Goes from 942 millibars to 1000 millibars in 24 miles. 

5 hours ago, Tezeta said:

Nobody tracks these to watch fizzling TS landfall. You’re basically concern trolling. 

5 hours ago, Tezeta said:

I’m not here to fight. I am just here to advocate for landfalls with complete eyewalls and good chaser footage. Nobody needs harmed and I hope only rich people’s beach houses and fossil fuel infrastructure gets wiped out. 

You obviously have never been to the Middle or Upper Texas Coast if you think it is filled with 'rich peoples beach houses'. As for the fossil fuel infrastructure - are you out of your bloody mind? How much of an ecological disaster would unfold if we had those facilities taken out? The amount of chemicals spilled would be absolutely insane. I mean, they do a good enough job as it is with spilling something every other week.

As for talking down Windspeed, who is a very long-time and knowledgeable poster, I would suggest you take that attitude and shove it back up to the Northeast weenie section. 

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As for Nicholas, the wind element sure certainly seemed to overperform. Wind gusts were over 60 MPH observed at several sites in Houston with over 350,000 customers without power. Pretty impressive wind field for what I expected would be a relatively localized and limit wind threat. While the wind (and in some cases, surge) were impressive, the flooding threat has not. Looks like the HRRR was onto something when it kept a majority of the heavy rains off the Texas coast. Louisiana? Well, they may be in for another world of hurt in the flooding department. 

2 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

I'm all for having fun, but don't flat out make crap up while you do it. He's known for it.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 

We're talking about Jeff P, right?  

Surge and strong wind moving into Grand Isle: https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress2.html

P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,061m (10,043ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,069m (10,069ft)

We'll see if it is done intensifying. That is a strong temperature differential - often a sign of ongoing intensification. 

Another 'emergency scramble' from San Antonio and the 53rd after two return to base mechanicals. That is definitely a first - and while off-site too. 

Two USAF flights... both divert back to base. Perhaps the second one can jump in the 'first' aircraft and head back out. Either way, what the flipping flamingos is going on with the 53rd tonight. Thankfully, NOAA's P3 is airborne out of Tampa.

NOAA's P3 will be up later this morning. They left early last night so they could get an earlier start today to be present during the storm's landfall. Pretty good flexibility of crews and the set schedules over the last day. Not often you see two air force aircraft in one system simultaneously (NOAA's P3 and the USAF plane being there together is regular) 

Just now, tim123 said:

Nhc dropped the ball on the recon flights. Extremely important data being lost out on. 

The plane will be in there within 30-40 minutes. Be happy the 53rd was able to scramble another aircraft so quickly. Otherwise, you'd be waiting another four hours for data.

The USAF have launched an 'emergency replacement flight' to take the place of the earlier cancelled USAF mission. Aircraft has departed San Antonio and is enroute to Ida. Either that or the original aircraft's issue was quickly resolved. Regardless, commendations are in order for whoever made that happen. Not often you see a 'second' mission take off in place of the first. 

NOAA plane is departing and with the USAF aircraft OOS mechanical, we won't have recon back into Ida until 3 AM CT Sunday. What a wonderful time to have no recon in a system. 

2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Seems like Ida might be one of those hurricanes whose wind field might expand more than winds increasing. Pressure been dropping all day with increasing wind field but strength of winds been slower to rise. 

I would expect a rather rapid rise in winds at some point this evening as pressures keep declining. We've seen that occur with multiple hurricanes in the past where it takes several hours for the winds to respond upward. It'll probably happen rather quickly too when it finally does. The expanding wind field is likely playing a part in delaying the uptick in wind speeds too. 

NOAA plane is doing a planned spiral ascent for some sort of research purpose. Once that is complete they'll head back down to 700 millibars and continue the recon mission.

Will have to see what the dropsonde shows, but it looks like a 2 millibar drop in the last 70 minutes. The NOAA aircraft's pressure estimates are running a few millibars lower than the dropsonde's measurements (fairly normal). I'd expect around 971 millibars from the dropsonde based on the bias correction.  

EDIT: Looks like about 969.5 - 970 millibars on the dropsonde with the wind correction. About a 3 to 3.5 millibar drop in 70 minutes. Nice.

1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

NOAA HH has turned around to head back into the storm... lol wut

Climbed to get over Cuba and will now monitor it as it comes off Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.

NOAA HH dropped a dropsonde from around 400 millibars (24,000 feet ASL) and are now descending back to 700 millibars while circling. Killing time while the 'cane moves over the island? One of the weirder flights I've seen. 

8 minutes ago, Amped said:

Recon is circling an outer band for some reason.

Just climbed up to 23,000 feet ASL too. I wonder if they are experiencing an issue and are terminating the mission. 
(Yeah, I don't know what they're doing)

I almost wonder if they're just going to drop high-level dropsondes for a while as Ida's core crosses over Cuba. 

The NOAA HH aircraft missed the center on their first pass. They scraped it, but had to do some last minute course deviations. (Terrain-related or something I'm sure). Anyway, 66 knot FL wind in the SE Quad. 

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Unpopular Opinion: The New Orleans evacuation recommendation is a bit premature, IMO. We've seen in past events, such as Rita in 2005, where evacuation orders were made prematurely and then the track shifted. The result was more people dying due to the evacuation process than the storm itself. It would have been better to wait for Ida to clear Cuba and see if that had any affect to the track, timing, or intensity of the forecast. Evacuation calls certainly are not easy, and COVID makes things more challenging, but I'm concerned this is going to be a bad call.

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I completely disagree. This storm has had little lead time. Also, due to covid, finding places to evacuate to or convincing people to leave will be that much more challenging than normal. TS force winds sill arrive by Sunday morning, giving the rest of today and tomorrow all they have to evacuate. This is going to be a powerful, scary storm and leaving this one to chance is not wise. Very happy to see the evacuations popping up today. 

We have a banter thread for these insightful discussions