mississaugasnow

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yeah, that's definitely futility. This season, Detroit ranks 18th least since 1880.

Ya, the good news is I can’t imagine next year is as bad as this one. 
 

Plus as you’ve mentioned before everything normally averages out. We had a good run the last few winters before this. 

15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Where does this season rank in Torontos entire period of record?

Pretty bad. As @Snowstormsmentioned 7th least since 1840. Which to me is worthy of futility discussion lol 

@Snowstorms  @michsnowfreak Even with that big push in late March YYZ is still at 6th least snowiest season on record at the airport. I don't know about you guys but to me thats going in the futile pile. 6th place has a cushion of about 2" before this winter would slip to 7th. 

On 3/29/2024 at 6:52 PM, Snowstorms said:

@mississaugasnowWatching the Tues-Thurs storm closely right now. Still a few days out but with the lingering cold air from the high in Quebec, there could be the potential for a messy storm across the GTA. Potential is there for rain, ice pellets, and snow. Might be winter's grand finale. 

Im thinking white rain for south of 401. One of those where it might stick for 5 mins under heaviest returns on grass tips. 

1-2" actually sticks north of 401-407. Im thinking 5-9" for the higher elevations of Orangeville-Shelburne. 

24 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

We have not had a sub-20" winter since 1969, but they did happen. Not frequently, but  Detroits full top 20 lowest snowfall

01.) 12.9" - 1936-37
02.) 13.2" - 1881-82
03.) 13.7" - 1948-49
04.) 15.2" - 1918-19
05.) 15.4" - 1965-66
06.) 15.8" - 1889-90
07.) 16.6" - 1952-53
08.) 17.1" - 1968-69
09.) 18.0" - 1957-58
09.) 18.0" - 1960-61
11.) 20.0" - 1982-83
12.) 22.0" - 1945-46
13.) 22.6" - 1937-38
14.) 22.8" - 1943-44
15.) 23.2" - 1888-89
16.) 23.4" - 1941-42
16.) 23.4" - 1997-98
18.) 23.7" - 1999-00
19.) 24.1" - 2003-04
20.) 25.1" - 1988-89
 

Some late season facts about the above...they were terrible enough, but look where they could have been without.... 

#4) 1918-19: A heavy, wet snowstorm of 5.8" on Mar 9th, largest  of the season, melted in 2 days, gave a big boost to the total

#6) 1889-90: A 5.0" heavy, wet snowstorm on March 29th was by far largest of the season

#9) 1960-61: Winters fiercest storm was its last - 3.0" fell at Detroit on April 16/17, but 4-5" fell in some suburbs and blizzard conditions clogged highways in west MI

#11) 1982-83: Disaster winter sees a late rally with a 7.3" snowstorm March 20/21 then another 3.4" snowfall April 17th

#13) 1937-38: 3 April snowfalls (4th, 6th, 8th) dropped a total of 3.9" at Detroit. The 4th dropped up to 4" well north of Detroit and the 6th dropped 6-7" near the Ohio border

#14) 1943-44: 15.7" of the seasons 22.8" fell after Feb 9th & 3.8" fell before November 16th,. So from Nov 17-Feb 9, a total of 3.3" fell.

#16) 1941-42: A 4.2" wet snowfall on April 9/10 would be the seasons largest

This years biggest snowstorm of 4.3" happened on March 22nd which is pretty unusual. What was weird about this late snowstorm was it was dry powdery snow. 

21 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

We have not had a sub-20" winter since 1969, but they did happen. Not frequently, but  Detroits full top 20 lowest snowfall

01.) 12.9" - 1936-37
02.) 13.2" - 1881-82
03.) 13.7" - 1948-49
04.) 15.2" - 1918-19
05.) 15.4" - 1965-66
06.) 15.8" - 1889-90
07.) 16.6" - 1952-53
08.) 17.1" - 1968-69
09.) 18.0" - 1957-58
09.) 18.0" - 1960-61
11.) 20.0" - 1982-83
12.) 22.0" - 1945-46
13.) 22.6" - 1937-38
14.) 22.8" - 1943-44
15.) 23.2" - 1888-89
16.) 23.4" - 1941-42
16.) 23.4" - 1997-98
18.) 23.7" - 1999-00
19.) 24.1" - 2003-04
20.) 25.1" - 1988-89
 

Some late season facts about the above...they were terrible enough, but look where they could have been without.... 

#4) 1918-19: A heavy, wet snowstorm of 5.8" on Mar 9th, largest  of the season, melted in 2 days, gave a big boost to the total

#6) 1889-90: A 5.0" heavy, wet snowstorm on March 29th was by far largest of the season

#9) 1960-61: Winters fiercest storm was its last - 3.0" fell at Detroit on April 16/17, but 4-5" fell in some suburbs and blizzard conditions clogged highways in west MI

#11) 1982-83: Disaster winter sees a late rally with a 7.3" snowstorm March 20/21 then another 3.4" snowfall April 17th

#13) 1937-38: 3 April snowfalls (4th, 6th, 8th) dropped a total of 3.9" at Detroit. The 4th dropped up to 4" well north of Detroit and the 6th dropped 6-7" near the Ohio border

#14) 1943-44: 15.7" of the seasons 22.8" fell after Feb 9th & 3.8" fell before November 16th,. So from Nov 17-Feb 9, a total of 3.3" fell.

#16) 1941-42: A 4.2" wet snowfall on April 9/10 would be the seasons largest

Toronto had nearly 2 sub 20" winters in 3 years back in 2009-10 (20.6") and 11-12 (16"). 2011-12 will probably be very difficult to ever get lower for Toronto as 16" is insanely low. 

Those stats might also be why I'm more prone to start discussing futility records since Toronto has been racking up a few recently (Last 20 years)

Coastal cities with 0-2” worst season can’t really talk about it until April haha 

26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I totally respect everyone having their own opinion/twist on. Its just me personally, Ive seen so many times you get a bad stretch in Dec up to mid-Jan and the word "futility" (which I loosely think of as top 5) starts popping up, then we end up with average to above average snowfall. 

And thats also why I say numbers are just one aspect of the story of a winter. Detroit is at 23.5", which is 18th least snowy winter, and just 0.7" would knock us down to #20 and 1.7" knock us out of the top 20, and thats easily doable. Doesnt mean it was an enjoyable winter at all, just means that quite a few winters saw less snow fall. 

 

A look at this funky snow season at DTW - since 1880 

October - 11th snowiest out of 144

November - 64th snowiest out of 144

December - 2nd least snowy out of 144

January - 27th snowiest out of 144

February - 20th least snowy out of 144

March - 12th least snowy out of 144

Yep, and to be fair you guys out west seem to have crazy low lowest snowfall. For example Ottawa is at 45” and it’s one of their least snowy winters ever 

so if Ottawa is at 15” come mid January to early February it makes sense for them to start talking about futility 

You guys out west I think you mentioned are 12”. So I see why talking about it early is pointless. 

18 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

This season has reminded me how true this is for our region. I won’t give my final season grade until 4/15 at the earliest and this storm has likely bumped it up a half letter.  
 

WWA hoisted for a couple more inches of snow with the deformation band as we fall back below freezing overnight into tomorrow morning. There will be a rock solid glacier by Wednesday, which looks downright frigid for late March. 

Ya, you guys get some monsters in spring. A lot of the prairies get some of their biggest storms in October and April. Calgary still averages 8-10" in April and 2-4" in May. 

43 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is an excellent example of two of my weather beliefs:

1) Its WAY to earlier to even discuss the likelihood of season futility being achieved in the midwest/Lakes in Dec, Jan, or Feb, no matter how bad it has been.

2) Season total snowfall is just 1 metric of a winter for a true winter weenie. Doesnt always tell the entire story.

Didnt come true in the eastern lakes for number 1 lol. Most of us on this side are going to be top 10 least snowy winter. Could a surprise April snowstorm happen and push some of us out of top 10 100%. 

I believe heavily in stats so way below average by mid winter means starting to need a miracle to make a comeback. I guess in a sports analogy kind of way you might be the fan that never gives up until the end of the game haha. If my teams down 27-7 starting the 4th Im typically tossing the towel because chances of winning are down to 10% or less. Teams do come back and win 30-27 but it's pretty rare. 

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Detroits northern suburbs hve a bit of a micro climate for heavier snowfall due to elevation. Particularly with LES & borderline events. Some years it's more influential than other years when you get a lot of borderline events. A great example would be this January 12th. The heart of the metro area got about 4-5 inches of 5:1 ratio snow, but the elevated northern suburbs got 8-9 inches with the same amount of liquid equivalent. 

It would be great to have snow measurements from Detroit city Airport, but essentially that is nothing more than an unmanned asos, so the only actual reports to come out of Detroit proper since the late 1960s are spotter/coop reports. Since it juts east into the Lake/River, the city proper and northeast into SE macomb County is one of the worst spots in the area for snow overall, so DTW in the suburbs gets a little bit more (even though they are South and West of the city) and would be more representative of the area (probably why they became the official site in 1966). However, when you get a few events throughout a season where the city gets noticeably more (and Mar 22 is an extreme example), I would imagine DTW only averages a few inches more annually. 

The last 2 winters have been very North to South oriented in the region. DTW has more than doubled Toledo's snowfall each of the last 2 winters, and detroit's northern suburbs have handily had more than DTW. Law of averages says big Ohio Winter probably coming within a few years.

I was interested to see the distance between the two and it makes sense. Especially this season. Toronto regions western suburbs are 60 miles away from the eastern suburbs. Same distance as downtown Detroit to downtown Toledo 

20 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

If you're going to get screwed on a storm/cutoff, no better time than Spring. The snow just gets obliterated in the sun. Built an Easter snow bunny with my nephews at my sister's house, and despite the cold and dry air, sun is just killing the snow. Needless to say my half inch is gone. What's YYZ season? Are they the only station in Toronto that does snow?

DTW is at 23.5". If no more measurable snow falls, this would rank as the 18th least snowy winter. A terrible season regardless, but January January'd so that gave the middle finger to those wishing for true futility. Detroit city probably got about 5" to DTWs 0.5" yesterday, but the season would be a wash I'm sure, as DTW frequently gets more than the city, and I can confirm this in January. Detroit city has not had snow measurements in over 50 years.

In my 29 years of measuring snow in my backyard, this is only my 4th season in the 20s, and my lowest of the entire lot at 21.2". The previous low was 25.5" in 2011-12 & high 96.2" in 2013-14. Hoping year #30 is a good season next year!

 

Toronto is at 26” which is right now the 7th least snow season. Assuming we get about 2” more it would keep it right about top 10 

The east end and a bit further north GTA is probably around 30” but no official airport measurements 

Hamilton and west end GTA got wrecked this year. Top 5 worst snow season and sitting at 16” at Hamilton airport 

 The last few years the snow-rain line has been about 25 miles further south so GTA has been getting good winters but Rochester and them screwed. This year the rain snow line moved a bit further north so the city is now separated as the eastern suburbs doubled the western suburbs 

8 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I just measured 6.2" in my backyard. Great storm. 

This storm will push YYZ ahead of 06-07 and 15-16, which would put it at 6th lowest ever. 

If we used a combination of Toronto and North York (1840-present) then 2023-24 would be 4th lowest lol. Doesn't matter how we spin it, this winter was a monstrosity for all of us. 

Ended up with about 2.5" here. Overall that puts it within the 2-6" that most were expecting across southern Ontario. I imagine someone in east end got 8" 

@michsnowfreak. @SnowstormsTheres going to be some wild difference in snow totals across GTA 

Pearson will end up middle ground. Looks like 6-10” east end. 4-6” Airport and 1-3” for my place and west end. 
 

Hamilton and my place is now pretty much locked into seeing one of the worst winters snow wise ever. 
 

Still up in the air with Pearson 

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

So not as many as I recalled. Quite a few in the 3-5" range but only 2 officially 6+ post Mar 15th since 2000.

7.2"- Apr 5/6, 2009

7.3"- Mar 21/22, 2008

 

I had an 8" storm Mar 25/26, 2002 where DTW only had 4.7" (huge cutoff).

Looks like you guys are starting to be due as well. That’s 15 years since you’ve seen one. 

37 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wow weve has several in the last 20+ years. Good luck!

Thanks! Do you have some dates by chance. I enjoy looking to see what could have happened. Most are just bad luck. Buffalo and Detroit get 6.5” Toronto 4.9” 

To the general public that’s not that big of a difference but to us it is haha 

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wow. Just curious? What kind of numbers are you talking for it to be biggest in a generation.

If it can get to 6” or more it hasn’t happened in 20+ years this late in the season 

currently looking at about 3-6” on most models 

4” or more starts to become a once every 5 years or so after March 15th

So this storm if it can deliver is pretty rare for GTA 

Certainly El Niño style end of winter 

@Snowstormsthis has potential to be biggest storm after March 15th in a generation 

13 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

@mississaugasnowYYZ has somehow surpassed 09-10 and 52-53 and is now sitting at 4th least snowiest on record. Friday's storm could make the difference if we surpass 06-07 or not. 

Won't change anything. This was winter was total horseshit. But glad we avoided a futility winter. 

A top 10 least snow is pretty bad lol. I think we see about 10cm or 4” 
 

Hamilton is still most likely a top 5 worst 

Southern Ontario is wrapped up in the Great Lakes. The only landmass like it (Northern MI is pretty similar as well)  Its water all the way from northern Lake Huron- River in Detroit/Windsor-Lake Erie-Niagara river-Lake Ontario-St.Lawerence. 

It's impressive when you think about it that way. 

11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I don't remember March 12 in 2012, But I do remember the insane exploding of foliage by March 17-20, which almost certainly will remain king over this year, and any other year. Other very early green ups in my memory are 1998 and 2010. Looking at historically early documented greenups, 1945 and 1946 had extremely early greenups and 1945s fruit crop was essentially ruined. One early greenup that flies under the radar often is 1977. After a cold early Fall and brutally cold winter, spring sprung early with warmth and stuff leafed out much earlier than normal.

 

Im curious what happened during the spring of 1932. There was a lot of documentation of extraordinary winter blooming and blossoming of trees and flowers, which was then followed by a cold spring.

Looks to be about 2 weeks ahead of schedule here but with the upcoming colder pattern it will probably end up being just slightly ahead compared to normal once spring is finished. 

For DC cherry blossoms. 
 

“Historical bloom data shows the average peak has moved up by about five days, from April 4 to March 31. Last year, peak bloom was March 23. It was recorded on March 21 in 2022. The earliest peak bloom on record occurred on March 15, 1990”

48 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

How far back to YYZ records go? Surprised none of those warm 1870s-80s winters weren't on the list. 

1957-58 and 1965-66 locally had warm, wet Decembers followed by cold dry rest of winter. Each had less snow here than this winter and were really many weenies nightmare pattern (warm and wet to cold and dry). It's surprising that 1957-58 wasn't warmer (outside December) due to a strong Nino and many mild winters preceeding that year. 

 

1972-73 was interesting. It was amidst one of the coldest stretches of the climate record, so I'm wondering if that made it a bit colder overall (arguably the same for 1965-66). We had enough snow to make it an avg snow season (even a tick above at the time). January was warm and snowless but Feb was cold. The first half of March was and still is the warmest on record then we got slammed with a big St Paddy's day snowstorm. 

 

Some historic strong Ninos that were very warm winters include 1877-78, 1905-06, & 1918-19. Most areas had little snow as well (esp 1918-19).

 

My take is that strong Ninos are going to have other factors at play (the current weather/climate cycle of the time, Pacific, blocking, PNA, NAO, etc) but in the end, a strong El Nino is never a sign for a good winter, at least in the Great Lakes. 

YYZ goes back to 1937 I believe 

It’s evident something has changed in this region. I think it’s a combination of bad luck, CC, other factors such as urban heat island as well

11 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

GFS continues to look snowless. Would be remarkable if we go the entire rest of March and April without any winter storm. i don't think there is any winter that went snowless after mid Jan and that too coming off a snowless December. Outside of a weak clipper in mid Feb, it's been incredibly warm and snowless. @mississaugasnow Pretty much unheard of at our latitude. 

 

 

Weather networks spring forecast expects an active March but drying out April/May. Above normal temps. 

Toronto is at 19.1" on the season and should see 0.5-1" tonight. Hamilton is only around 13-14" on the season 

12 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

I dont think Ive ever been a part and felt a 45/50 degree temp drop in less than 12 hours. I know the denver area has seen this numerous times.

You didnt get that last year during the christmas blizzard? Southern Ontario went from 40F and rain to -5F to 5F in 12 hours