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NavarreDon

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Everything posted by NavarreDon

  1. Yes! Always happy to see you get flakes. You pay a lot of dues cold wise for the amount of wintry weather you get. Congrats! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  2. Congrats guys! Hope the AVL crew gets in on it. Dying to know the difference from downtown to Weaverville. Meanwhile a reverse obs shows I'm sunny 65° with shorts on & the windows open. Think it's beach time later!
  3. I've seen this many times over the years. It used to scare the you know what out of me. I think it verified one time but not on the scale modeled. imho I would not let this bother me to much. It is disconcerting when it's your backyard though.
  4. The web cam from Wolf Ridge shows some good flakage coming down now. Any obs from the Asheville crew?
  5. Should be a fun one Cheez! Didn't you stay in Woodfin last time? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  6. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM EST...EVEN VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING A SLIPPERY DUSTING OF SNOW DESPITE THE DRY SUB CLOUD AIR. BOTH THE LATEST RAP AND 12Z NAM ARE NOW PRESENTING MORE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THROUGH A NARROW WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON...AND WET BULB PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW UNTIL MID LEVELS DRY OUT THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE UPTICK IN QPF AND ASSOCIATED COLD/SLIPPERY ROADWAYS IMPACT...HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY INTO STEPHENS COUNTY IN NE GA...THE UPSTATE MOUNTAINS...AND THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT. WILL ALSO UPGRADE GRAHAM COUNTY TO A WARNING WITH 3 TO 5 INCH SNOW TOTALS QUITE WIDESPREAD AS THE HEAVIER RATES MOVES IN WITH THE REFLECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST.
  7. Morning folks, congrats on the snow! Be safe & keep the obs coming. Just to give you a little idea of the ever changing Fri-Sat. storm from a different perspective. Two days ago our forecast high for Sat was 63°. This morning our forecast high for Sat. is 48°! That will be one of the coldest days for a high temp in my time down here. Look even though anything can happen because you still live in the South. It's becoming more & more apparent that their is going to be some type of winter precip & more than likely a good bit of it. While most of you are seasoned winter weather vets I will still remind you not to get caught off guard. Get your essentials whatever they ma be (yes Joe I know you have them! ~) while you can. You may only have a small window left. Sorry for the rant but i hate to see someone get stuck without something they need. Good luck guys but at this point I really don't think it's a question of if but more of what type & how much. Fun times & thanks for letting me come along for the ride!!!
  8. I'm liking the trends on the models for a lot of you folks. Still a ways to go & heartbreak always looms but, I am pretty optimistic about this one! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  9. What's up Jason? What was his drivel on the upcoming systems? I think most tv mets are handcuffed by station execs. If not there are some Real winners on the air! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  10. 85, do you mean the Dec 18 2009 storm? I don't remember a big snow right before the Christmas storm that year. If the 09 storm is what you are referring to it was one of the most awesome storms I've been through. We hadn't had a whopper since 93 & we got it all. Looked like a war zone with fallen trees, abandoned vehicles, thunder snow, & a 54 hour power outage at my house. 16" of wet paste & then a additional 2" of powdery flow snow for a total of 18". I remember it started as snow changed to rain for a half hour went back to snow & all hell broke loose! Anyway back to this storm I am not qualified to make predictions but I like the look for most of the Mnts. I think the very far SW Mnts may have some issues but overall I think this is the best chance for a big event since I left. Remember guys don't hang your hats on one model run. Look for trends in the models. I'm excited for you guys and will be doing some vicarious living thru some of you! Someone in NC is going to jackpot with this! Good luck to all. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  11. Hahaha! Of course I do Joe but, there is a certain sense of comfort knowing I'm not in the game at all. I can also drown my sorrows with a walk on the beach which is nice. I aspire to be like you though and do both!!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  12. It's kinda funny not being on the front lines anymore. No more highs that are to high & lows that are to low. Take a deep breath fellas model hugging will run you right off the cliff! This thing is not even going to be properly sampled till it comes ashore tomorrow. Lots of changes to come. For some of you that were here think back to the Christmas 2010 storm. For those of you who weren't. I suggest you go back and read the discussion threads for a history lesson on model madness! Enjoy the ride guys it's part of the fun! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  13. Joe, if i was you I would make sure I was stocked up on essentials! You're in a great spot for some fun.
  14. Well GSP has their eyes on the Friday storm! If I was up there I would be getting a wee bit excited! .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT 4 AM MONDAY...A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BROAD 1027 MB SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION BY 12Z THURS. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE WEST...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE ARKLATX AROUND DAYBREAK THURS. THURSDAY...MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS CWA...SUPPORTING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...I WILL FORECAST GENERALLY A COLD RAIN ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE LIGHT SN ACCUMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...MELTING LATER IN THE DAY. AN IMPRESSIVE MILLER TYPE-A SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE 0Z ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE STRONG 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...PEAKING AROUND 18Z FRIDAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE REGION. AT THE MID LEVELS...Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL STRENGTHENING OVERHEAD AS A SHARP...NEARLY CLOSED OFF...H5 TROF RIPPLES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...THE GFS INDICATES THAT A BAND OF SFC CAPE MAY DEVELOP ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEP FORCING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...AND PWS AROUND AN INCH HAS CREATED SEVERAL CONCERNS. FIRST...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. HIGH RATES AND HEAVY QPF COULD YIELD AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT THREAT ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR...THAT IS IF THE PRECIP FALLS IN LIQUID FORM. SECOND...TEMPERATURES FRI MORNING RE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR DAMMING IS UNDER ESTIMATED WITHIN THE ECMWF AND GFS. I WILL FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...REMAINING IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND EAST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED OF FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND SFC TEMPS...SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...YIELDING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMS. THIRD...FRIDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE CENTER OF THE H5 LOW MOVES OVER THE MTNS. H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AND TEMPS WILL COOL TO -3C TO -8C ACROSS THE NC MTNS. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...FRIDAY TEMPS WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH FREEZING POSSIBLE EAST ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE. THE RAIN...SNOW...AND BLACK ICE WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO. CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
  15. Definitely not a slam dunk but the pieces are there for a decent event. Have to watch the trends and see what happens. One thing for sure is this is the closest the Mnts have been to decent snow this winter!
  16. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE FCST BECOMES TRICKY AND PROBLEMATIC FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD AS WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH TWO SYSTEMS...AN INITIAL ONE MAINLY DOMINATED BY MID/UPPER FORCING ON WEDNESDAY... AND A FOLLOW-UP ONE DURING THE LATE WEEK THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT. AS USUAL...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING ENSEMBLE SPREAD BEYOND WEDNESDAY. ON THE ONE HAND...THERE SEEMS TO BE A TREND WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH SUGGESTS LESS OF A P-TYPE ISSUE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE ACTUALLY SHOW MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH A FREEZING OR FROZEN P-TYPE. WITH THE TREND IN THE GFS...THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT IS STARTING TO CREEP UP WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER STORM DECLINES. IN SPITE OF OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE...IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR AS THE LOW MOVES PAST FOR ANYTHING OTHER RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 4K FEET...WHERE THERE STILL REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF TEMP PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...AND MAYBE LOTS OF IT. HAVE WARMED TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON THE WARM ADVECTION SEEN IN THE 00Z GFS...WHICH HAS CUT BACK QUITE A BIT ON THE WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS/MTNS. COLD AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SO THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND THAT WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF NW FLOW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON THE TN BORDER. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL NOT MENTION ANY OF THIS IN THE HWO.
  17. Looks like a decent snow coming down on the Wolf Ridge base cam. http://www.skiwolfridgenc.com/web_cams.php?camera=lower_lodge
  18. What's up fellas? Good luck on the current event. The one I have my eye on is the Friday Saturday 1/22-1/23 situation. A long way off but there's potential for it to be the one you have been waiting for. I'll be pop in to give some thoughts. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  19. Hahahahaha! Luv you too Joe. Hope you are stocked up with the essentials. Have you had time to go to Woodfin? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  20. Some good upslope chances for sure but, the thing that drew me in is the overall shift in the pattern. I guess the million dollar question is how long it stays this way. The SE is ripe for some sort of southern system & of course the Mnts will probably lead the way. Regardless of what happens things are looking up for snow lovers. Think the upslope might surprise some with the lakes not even being frozen. Great to banter with you 85! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  21. Morning all!, Things have been busy down in the Panhandle so I haven't been around much. With a eye toward the pattern change I figured it was time to jump in. Big changes afoot for those of you in WNC esp. the Mnts. Some exciting things on the horizon so i'm here to put my 2 cents.......er maybe a penny's worth in here. Hope you all rally in the second half of snow season!
  22. Congrats fellas! Hope the new forum works well for you all.
  23. Your blog was tweeted by someone I follow & I read it there. Great write up. My Mom said it was a fairly somber day in Joplin yesterday. (heightened by the events in Moore I'm sure) After moving there from the Ft Lauderdale area. She is more certain than ever she will spend the rest of her life in Joplin. The will of the people there along with the kindness just over whelm her. She had to stop by Wal Mart yesterday & a random group of people where collecting the same supplies JoMo spoke about to send to Moore. She pitched in and did her part & then just broke down. When I talked to her last night she was just astounded by the acts of the people in the Midwest.
  24. NWS-SGF marks the 2 year anniversary of the Joplin Tornado with a summary of the events. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=event_2011may22_summary
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