Seminole

25 minutes ago, beanskip said:

6z Euro moves just enough west to be a killer for Apalachee Bay. Looks like a hit around the Jefferson/Taylor line based on Tidbits maps, but if someone has  more detail, that would be appreciated.

This also is close enough to Tallahassee that hurricane force winds will surely impact the capital city -- you can't even believe how many trees will come down. 

I have seen pictures of Killearn Estates after Hurricane Kate in 1985 and the roads were impassable. Oak tree after oak tree across the roads. Hemine, Irma and Michael were child's play compared to what Kate did to Tallahassee. 

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Seems to be the case more often than not. 

000
WTNT45 KNHC 282052
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

The satellite presentation of Idalia has continued to improve this 
afternoon.  The center of the storm is embedded within an area of 
deep convection with cloud tops colder than -75C.  Although the 
early reconnaissance aircraft and radar data from Cuba
have not yet indicated the presence of an eyewall, the aircraft
data did indicate that the pressure had fallen to around 987 mb on
the final pass through the center earlier this afternoon.
Believable SFMR winds of 60 kt were reported to the east of the
center, and Idalia's intensity was raised to that value on the
1800 UTC intermediate advisory and it remains at that value for 
this advisory. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
are scheduled to be in the storm environment again this evening and 
should provide additional information on the structure and 
intensity of the tropical cyclone.  Another NOAA G-IV synoptic 
surveillance mission is underway and that data should be
assimilated into the dynamical model runs this evening.

Idalia is moving northward or 360/7 kt.  The storm should continue
to be steered northward between a mid-level trough over the central
Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles through
tonight.  On Tuesday, a faster north-northeastward motion should
begin as a trough moves into the east-central United States.  This
motion should bring the center of Idalia to the Gulf coast of
Florida on Wednesday.   The dynamical models continue to have some
spread after 36 hours, with the GFS and HAFS guidance along the
western side of the envelope and the ECMWF along the eastern side.
The consensus aids were slightly west of the previous cycle, and
the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction. The NHC track
forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus
model.  It is still worth stressing that only a small deviation in
the track could cause a significant change in Idalia's landfall
location in Florida due to the paralleling track to the west coast
of the state.  When Idalia nears the Atlantic coast of the
southeastern United States the guidance suggests the cyclone will
turn more eastward as the aforementioned trough passes to the north
of the storm.

The upper-level wind pattern is forecast to become more conducive
for significant strengthening when Idalia moves over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday.  At the same time,
the storm is forecast to move over an area of high ocean heat
content.  These conditions are likely to allow for a period of
rapid strengthening which is explicitly shown in the official 
forecast through 36 hours. Idalia is likely to become a hurricane 
this evening, and is predicted to become major hurricane over the 
eastern Gulf within 36 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast is just a 
little above the latest HFIP corrected consensus guidance. 

Idalia is forecast to move into an area very susceptible to storm
surge, and regardless of the cyclone's landfall intensity, there is
increasing confidence of a significant storm surge event.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River.  Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.

3. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally 
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of 
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into 
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas 
Wednesday into Thursday.

4. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far western
Cuba tonight.  Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions
of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as landslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 21.4N  85.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 22.7N  85.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 24.9N  85.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 27.6N  84.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 30.4N  82.9W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
 60H  31/0600Z 32.7N  80.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/1800Z 34.0N  76.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  01/1800Z 34.1N  71.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 34.0N  69.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

8 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

May not be much on the immediate coast but some of the hurricane model solutions would put the western eyewall over Tallahassee; with how fast this thing is going to be trucking inland I'd expect they would get a lot more wind than during Michael if those verified.

An eyewall over Tallahassee would mean power outages for 95% of Tallahassee. The power grid in that town has miles and miles of power lines intertwined with Canopy roads the service large sections of the population. 

Just now, Retrobuc said:

Ok, need your help.  I'm a lurker whose read this board for awhile.  I have niece who moved from PA to St Pete on Saturday and this is her welcome! She doesnt know if she should leave her apartment, she is on the border of evac zones A&B.  I said she should, but dont want to overreact.  Thoughts?

My understanding is that Zone A in Pinellas is under mandatory evac order. 

Just now, GaWx said:

 ~20 miles NW of 0Z landfall, which was ~30 miles NW of Cedar Key. So, now ~50 miles NW of Cedar Key. It landfalls at ~10 AM Wednesday  vs ~8AM Wednesday.

Thank you. Given my proximity I am hanging on every model update. Going to decide tomorrow to ride it out or bug out. 

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro little later landfall vs 0Z and quite a bit stronger

Expected this given the 0Z was off with intensity this morning. Any shift in landfall? 

The 12Z GFS is another trend toward the Euro solution. The timing of the trough that picks up Idalia will be crucial to whether this is a Forgotten Coast or Nature Coast strike. 

20 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Not exactly your classic strengthening TS look

Safe to say this one has a long way to go. 

5 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Yeah for people on the coast or in zone A . When it was suppose to be a cat 2 maybe a 3 . No one in zone 3 or “C” was told to leave because the surge wouldn’t be as bad with a cat 2/3 storm .
This storm was Tampa / Panhandle up till yesterday . Not Naples , ft myers , Cape Coral .
By yesterday peolle from Tampa were driving south and east the roads were packed .
Not to mention the elderly who live in these areas .
The people along the coast or close to it . Yes stupid shouldn’t be there . The ones who were told this wouldn’t be “ that storm “ it isn’t in them at all .


.

https://abc-7.com/news/2022/09/27/lee-county-announces-mandatory-evacuations/

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

He said his parents were in Zone 3, only half of Zone 3 was told to evacuate. My guess is they live in the northern part of Zone 3, thus technically were not told to evacuate. 

What is Zone 3? The evac Zones are A thru E. I can tell you that Zones A thru C were told to evacuate. https://www.leegov.com/publicsafety/emergencymanagement/knowyourzone 

Just now, forkyfork said:

that's still pretty late

To go 20 miles inland? Come on. 

11 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

My parents are in Cape Coral right now , they were never told to leave , they weren’t evacuated. They are in zone 3 . Up till last night they were told it was only a high cat 2 maybe cat 3 that was going to hit Tampa , a lot of people stayed thinking it wouldn’t be that bad .
When you tell someone 4 hours before it hits its now a cat 5 . It’s to late .
That is on local , state and federal agencies.
I can’t even put blame on meteorologists because they are only right 8% of the time with anything .


.

Completely untrue. The mandatory evacuation orders went out yesterday. 

7 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Yikes just found out my 20-something niece, husband and BABY who were in Destin flew to Tampa to get his boat and take it to Ft Lauderdale.  They're in south Tampa now and think they're gonna head south then east on I-75.  Uhhh, I-75 south is JAMMED and now there are jams eastbound from Naples towards Ft Lauderdale.

I think they should head NORTH out of Tampa back towards the panhandle area.  Thoughts?

I'm in the Panhandle and we are hosting Tampa evacuees. Panhandle is the better option. 

11 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Looks like EWRC may be beginning or underway. This may limit amount of intensification Ian could have achieved depending on how long it takes. It still could hit cat 4. 

Looks like the SE eyewall is degrading on radar. Definitely looks like an EWRC is underway. 

6Z GFS is N. Ft. Myers landfall

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I think the population there is also much higher than it was in 2004

Today that area has almost tripled in population. 

37 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Something of note, a big bend landfall would probably be best case scenario here. Small storm may limit surge into major west coast cities, and big bend is pretty unpopulated. Also, may be a weakening hurricane rather than a strengthening one. Atm I would favor a landfall just north of Tampa however

As someone who lives in the Big Bend and on barrier island I do not share this sediment. 

Primary energy is in the NW quadrant of the LLC per Flash Extent Density. I just don't see a relocation happening to the SW with this much energy is still centered around the LLC.  

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092022

A ton of upwelling will be going on if the GFS is correct. Upwelling along with the cooler N. GOM water will keep intensity from going off the chain.    

Rapidly weakens (+32 mbar) the last 36 hours before landfall. This reminds me of Opal 1995.  

Does anyone have access to the 6Z GFS yet? 

https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops/ocean_guidance.php?model=GOES&area=GMex&plot=sst&day=0&loop=0

The Northern GOM has been trending for the past two weeks to toward cooler temperatures.