WNash

KS(n)YZ(zle)

I think it's part of the guidance changes over the last 10-15 years to emphasize impact on human activity in text products.

Buffalo is only slightly above its 30 year seasonal snowfall mean. Our brains have been so warped by these extreme snowfall deficits that we think Buffalo has been getting buried. In actuality, this is one great month in a great desert of crappy winters. I'm not complaining -- the last 3 1/2 weeks have been awesome -- but I don't see how Buffalo is going to get the 2.5 to 3 feet needed just to finish at the seasonal average.

Absolutely dumping near University Plaza. Huge dendrites.

FIFY

You’re really missing out on the most IMBY comments in this forum.

Sorry, I was comparing 18” in Kenmore/N Buffalo to my in laws in West Seneca, which was 15”. But the LES storm totals were significantly lower in WS. in any case, while some of the Buffalo metro is still a few inches above mean snowfall to date, it has been uneven. I wouldn’t call this a good winter for the Southtowns.

The southtowns crew got 90% of the synoptic, but lost out on the LES a couple weeks ago. I hope this one overperforms in Hamburg/OP.

I’m originally from Nashville. 1” will shut down the city for days.

What a mistake. Flores is a terrific coach whose only problem was a meddling owner. He should be coach of the year for doing as well as he did despite Ross’s interference.

KBUF isn’t on the same heading as North Buffalo/Northtowns, but you do you, boss

We’re at about 16” in the University District, making a run at 2 feet if the band continues to barely move south. I moved to WNY in October 2012 (at the same time Sandy was hitting the east coast). In my time here, I have only lived in 14214, and this is the best storm for the northern part of the city in that almost 10 year span. Really hoping for 2’.

Wild to see a mirror image of LES storm of recent years. I feel that photo — watching a good band from the sunny side sucks.

Yeah, this is awesome. I’ll get out there a measure later, but we have been drifting in and out of the 2-3” stuff all morning.

Sorry meant to put my comment in the off topic discussion. Glad we don’t have storm mode violation bans!

My ex grew up on White Lake. Those West Michigan lake storms with the multiple band setups hit frequently all the way into late March. Not as intense as the single band storms we get, but they share the wealth a lot more there, and the pack can really add up.

Not for the first time.

This will probably weenie-doom the storm for the northern half of the metro, but model consistency and upstream radar have me cautiously optimistic.

This doesn’t surprise me, though I am disappointed. A heavy band with a long downtown to northtowns residence requires multiple parameters to align almost perfectly. That set of parameters seems to have had a return interval of about 10 years until the early 2000s, but for whatever reason, the odds against them seem to have gotten much worse. If any parameter is off, we see outcomes ranging from no band at all to a transient band with a short residence in most of the city to a band that reverts to a more WSW or W alignment. The tolerances are so fine that as soon as any single credible model loses a 235/240 flow, the chances of a downtown to northtowns band drops to basically zero. So this is no surprise — in reality we lost this one days ago.

Yeah, I don’t think this is going to break the 20 year LES blockbuster drought for downtown through the north towns. I also have a bad feeling about winds in the first part of the storm - we have seen high winds and sheer break up bands in the city.

God save this weenie band

Just 293 hours away!

Crazy how it works, you’re going to jump from your 1” for the season to passing KBUF if this sets up the way it is looking like.

When I was pIcking my daughter up from pre-K, the NW sky from the 290 was totally dominated by that band off southern Lake Huron. It looked like a total monster.

Sounds like the sensible weather in Tennessee in the 1990s and early 2000s. I moved here ecstatic that I was going to leave behind weeks of 43/31 weather, interspersed with warm-ups into the upper 50s to low 60s. Winters where precip was 4x as likely to be rain as snow. The standard for an A or A- winter would be at least one instance of accumulating snow (1” or more) falling into previously accumulated snow (snowpack at least 1”). I’m going to put out a theory that our rate of winter warming is us losing about 0.5 degrees of latitude every three winters. So in 20 years, Buffalo went from the epic Christmas week storm that buried the whole city (https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2001-2002&event=B) to winters where we get cutter after cutter, and where the front end thump of an inch or so leads to no lake response. We might as well live in the mid-south. At least they get to cheer for the occasional cut-off low bringing a jackpot every few years. And by 2040 we should be seeing the winters that Jackson, Mississippi had circa 2000. Who wants to trade lake effect chases for tornado chases? Will we be able to complain about weeks of 70 degrees and sunshine in January and and February?