Eduardo

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

That was the only winter that I experienced which could be compared to the little ice age before the global temperatures took off like a rocket after 1980. Walking to the school bus stop was quite an experience. It was the last time NYC had a top 10 coldest winter averaging in the 20s. 

I would love to have this kind of cold return, even if it were dry.  Much preferable to the winter warmth to which we have become accustomed.

Guys I’m up in Albany for the week starting tomorrow, so it’s guaranteed to trend south and give the Metro its first significant snowfall in two years.  Enjoy!! 

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Always possible to sneak in something. But the first chance for NYC to get to 10” or greater on the season will probably have to wait until the last week of February or first week of March. Provided that actual pattern advertised by the extended EPS verifies.

I’m in the same camp.  I think NYC limps to double digits for the season by St. Paddy’s Day.

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

PNA is rising . Good chance we might see some snow.

We have had bad luck with a negative AO and NAO.

Mmmm I’d say go outside and bask in the winter feel today.  Might be awhile before we experience it again, unfortunately .

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This winter so far is more evidence that there seem to have been two pattern shifts to our winters starting with the 15-16 super El Niño. The first shift is that all our winters since then have been warmer to record warmer. So this winter will mark a record breaking 9 consecutive warmer winters. The beginning of the warmer period from 15-16 to 17-18 still was producing record snowfall within the 09-10 to 17-18 window. Then around 18-19 we started to see a decline in snowfall to a lower baseline than before 2010-2018. The common denominator seems to be a more amplified MJO 4-7 pattern and a stronger ridge near the Northeast. It will be interesting to see if we can at least change up the snowfall equation and sneak in another year like 20-21 over the next few winters.

My working amateur thesis was that maybe another Niño would snap things back in a positive direction for people like me who love the cold and snow.  Might have to revisit that……

Given how the past few winters have gone and the fact that we are climatologically near winter’s peak, a big part of me feels like the next few days will be the coldest stretch this winter will have to offer.  Anyone else?

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Who wants arctic air ? I rather have it just cold enough for snow.

Enjoy Tuesday and next weekend before it gets mild for a brief time.

Oh sign me up man I’m all about it!  13–14 and 14–15 (the former more so) were my glory days!  Snowing with single-digit temps is the best it gets IMO!

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s 174 hours out but surface temps are very cold which isn’t a bad sign at this time 

I think it’s the ephemerally-better PAC that has me a tad excited for this one.  Climo is on our side as well. 

Snowing light to moderate on Roosevelt Island.  Nothing accumulating on any surfaces though.

Wild that this is the hardest I’ve seen it snow in almost two years!

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

No. Winter 2001-02 came closest with a minimum temperature of 19.

Yeah I figured that, if it had ever happened, it would have been 2001-2002 or 2011-2012.

Thanks Don!

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Quietly, this will be the coldest night of the winter so far. Down to 29 already with the wind making in feel much colder 

I was gonna say that today was the first time walking home from work when it felt like a normal winter evening.

Just out of curiosity (and sorry if this’s been answered) but has NYC ever gone a whole winter without temps dipping below 20 degrees?

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No guarantees especially if we stall out in 7 instead preceding to 8. But hoping for at least one solid 8 this winter.

 

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

storms like march 2017 and dec 2020 should stay in everyone's heads as reminders about what can happen to great looks at 48 hours

March 2017 was the first thought I had as well.  Might come down to how well that high to the north can serve us.  But maybe—just maybe—we will have some luck on our side.  Just so refreshing to actually have something to track!  Here’s to hoping things break our way in the new year!

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’ll take a stretch of below freezing NIGHTS at this point, forget days to kill off the bugs I still see everywhere. Earthworms everywhere too after this washout. 

I was just thinking the same thing!  Amazing how little time we have spent below freezing these past two winters.  Felt like early spring walking through Manhattan today—and we’ve had so many days like this.

6 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

You see a very small sliver of the pro's.  Social media pros tend to skew cold because it drives interactions.    I don't view Bustardi as an operational met anymore so much as a political pundit hocking books.  He has long past his expiration date on reliable forecaster in the long range and a lot of folks have wised up to it.  Margavage was in school when I was and flunked out, now returns as the 'cold and snow' guy and gets a following.

 

There are a lot of good mets around, a lot, who's opinion I value and respect.  Some of them were cold 1h Jan, many were not.  But they're not gonna be the loudest voice on twitter.

Welp….

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The sensible weather in late December into Janaury along with the forecasts were indicating a big turnaround. Following the low 70s leading up to Christmas, we quickly picked up a T of snow before New Years. Then a short Arctic outbreak with NYC dropping to 11° on Janaury 5th. I remember mentioning how impressive  it was to have a+500 meter KB block. Once it built back across the pole, the rest was history. The weeklies started looking great in late December.

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/12/28/ecmwf-monthly-run-10/

 

 

 

You definitely telegraphed this back then!  I distinctly remember thinking of that winter as having been saved by that Kara ridge!!

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

So much mild Pacific air has flooded Canada, that any continental polar will get modified heading south. That’s why I think the long range models will continue to correct warmer as we get closer to the forecast period. Plus storm tracks with the fast split flow will also present challenges.

I agree with this, although as we get into January, it becomes more possible to sneak in an event with a marginal airmass.  Something has to break our way at some point, right?….. Right? 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Every subforum has some weenies, though....SNE has them. Bluewave reminds me of raindance in the sense that I initially mocked him because I didn't like much of what he had to say, until I quietly realized that he probably knows more than I do.

Humility is the greatest gift anyone can ever give you.

Chris @bluewave is one of the most solid, knowledgeable, objective posters I’ve encountered in any forum.  He was (correctly) super bullish on cold and snow from the time I first interacted with him (in 2009?) until the magic stopped a few years back.  Since then, broadly-speaking, he’s been correct that we’d be in the doldrums until the PAC cooperates.

Glad you’ve been dropping by here, @40/70 Benchmark.  I enjoy reading your analysis as well!

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I never even used the term torch in December 2015. Mainly since I am respectful of others in here who are triggered by that term. 

I mean, if ever there was a time when the term was appropriate…..

Did JB coin that term, btw?

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why did @bluewavecross the road?

Hahahaha. I mean, he did cross the Sound.

15 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

This is very meta for me.

 

I started as a teenager posting on Evans forum, went to Tristate and @jm1220 who I know personally and at Penn St, Adam and Tech and Mets and all those guys.

 

Would have meteorologists chime in too...Rich Hoffman, Mike Ekster, Goodman, Craig Allen etc etc...those guys were invaluable to my understanding and building a foundation of knowledge.

 

Big part of the reason I'm doing this professionally now is because of the online community then.  Was constructive, learned a ton.  I wish folks talked over each other less, it's much more combative now than it used to be.  There would be arguments for sure, there would be weenies calling weenies a weenie.  But the pros would kind of calm the masses and steer the discussion. 

This is great! I also remember @jm1220 as one of the “OG’s” there as well. He was a Penn Stater with access to a premium AccuWx account we poors couldn’t afford, but he gave us glimpses into what they were thinking. Somehow, I snagged the name “SnowLover” on both the Bill Evan’s and TriState boards.  Glad to see that you all are doing well!

6 minutes ago, nj08822 said:

Certain posters here seem to care more about "told you so" instead of analysis and commentary.  For people like me who are trying to learn and be informed, it makes this forum close to unreadable.

It’s partly a matter of perspective.  I agree that the ad hominem BS gets annoying (i.e., the reflexive weenie’ ing). But, depending on how you view it, the substantive debate between more informed posters can provide some really fertile ground for learning and developing your own ideas.
 

The “weenie culture” has always been an important part of the fabric as well. I don’t think of myself as one, but I also don’t necessarily view is as a pejorative, especially when applied to members like @MJO812/metfan who seem to wear that label proudly.  Like I’ve said before, this place wouldn’t be as fun without him.

5 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

This place has gotten pretty toxic, I only stick around because I don’t know where else to go. Bring back the channel 7 forum.


.

Hahaha I don’t know if I’d go that far.  That place wasn’t exactly devoid of bickering.  There was someone named something like “hani345” who would occasionally (and I think inadvertently) ignite flame wars by saying things like “Bill I’m scared the wind is going to blow my house down.”

But I do miss that board as well.  I prob wouldn’t have been on TriState, Eastern, or here were it not for that community.

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Actually I'm not but keep bashing me when I'm actually posting the truth.  This sub forum is ridiculous at times. 

I guess Bluewave and Allsnow are always right.

 

 

Nobody is saying that they “are always right” my man.  They’ve contributed some quality, objective analysis over the years, and we’re onboard the snow train during the excellent stretch we saw from 2000-2018 or so.  And, objectively-speaking, things just don’t look that great this month if, like me, you love cold and snow in NYC.

Mean regression stanks.  Sooner or later, we will break this terrible multi-year, Niña-esque state, but I’m afraid we’ve got a bit to go, unless as @brooklynwx99 thinks, the Niño gives us some room to run during the back half.

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Bc metsfan is a mega weenie, does the same thing every year and then will say all the models sucks while he continues to chase fantasy snowstorms.  

I mean, at least he’s out front about it.  Place wouldn’t be as fun without him TBH.