HarveyLeonardFan

At the risk of sounding aggressively contrarian I doubt the validity of those 120 knot gusts in Naples. I saw all the reporters from twc and the three cable news nets and every reporter was able to continue standing up all the while remaining live, on air. And some of the networks were on balconies and elevated parking garages.

30 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Agree...same goes for Homestead during Andrew. Wooden frame houses and mobile homes don't stand a chance against a cat 4/5...OTOH reinforced concrete buildings will remain with little to no structural damage. Yes, windows, doors, roof tiles and damage related to falling trees/flying debris may occur, but you won't see a clean slab in the aftermath of a cat 4/5.

Andrew destroyed entire shopping centers. The type of structure was wholly irrelevant. Everything was destroyed in south Dade county and anyone on the ground there will attest to this. The damage in Puerto Rico although severe and politically momentous is not comparable to Andrew in any way, shape or form and I'm basing this assertion on aerial footage and my 1992 experience on the ground.

Thanks for the clarification Josh and thanks for your great work covering the hurricanes this season.  I'm glad you're getting some much deserved national publicity via Weather Nation.  The damage photos I saw suggested CAT 3 damage but I will defer to your better informed on the ground opinion.  You seemed to get out of the Southern coastal part of the island en route to the SAN Juan airport rather quickly.  How did you manage to get out so quickly?  Lots of credible reporters on the ground have been saying the roads are impassable.

2 minutes ago, Saltydog said:

I would imagine this is what gets you in trouble. North Carolina's coastal plain is flood prone, and while it seems it is well put together, it is what you would call the 'black belt'. The area between Raleigh, and the OBX is full of low income people who live in trailers, and have homes in flood prone areas as the area east of Goldsboro is filled with tributaries to the major rivers, and connect to the sounds. 

Whoa! I've introduced politics because we live in an era when everything is political.  Cable news ratings are going through the roof and football ratings are dropping like a rock. I can understand people criticizing me for bashing someone like Rick Scott.  My comments were incendiary especially considering the fact that most users on this board are white males and white males in the United States are overwhelmingly Republican.  But you my friend are playing the race card.  People in Jacksonville, North Carolina know what to do when a hurricane approaches or threatens the North Carolina coast.

2 minutes ago, jburns said:

You might be correct.  Who wouldn't want to spend a week or two in the tropics without electricity?

 You are not Josh. You saw a bit of footage and made a general assumption. It doesn't work like that.  You are like the three blind men trying to describe an elephant. One grabbed the trunk and said it was like a big snake. The second grabbed a leg and said it was like a tree. The third felt its side and said it was like a wall.  

I have tremendous respect for Josh and all his peers like Mike Theiss.  Without their images and reportage I wouldn't be able to make such a declaration.  I'm not necessarily downplaying Maria.  I'm just saying that in terms of sheer power as far as Puerto rico is concerned it's not comparable to Andrew

21 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs are also west of 12z and closer to the coast

It's a tough slog to get Maria or any hurricane to the Northeast coast.  We are due however since there have been only three landfalling hurricanes to strike the Northeast directly in the last 57 years.  We don't have accurate records, so perhaps this is historically outside the climo norm.

47 minutes ago, jburns said:

They are staying in the major hotels in the best-built part of the country. They have not ventured out very far from their base at this point. You need to stop downplaying this until we get a more widespread assessment of the damage. I hope you are correct but my gut tells me you are not. Let's wait and see before you end up like Shepard Smith.

Josh Morgerman is one of the most experienced hurricane observers on planet earth.  He was covering the hurricane for satellite weather provider Weather Nation.  In the footage he provided and in his narrative reports I do not see evidence of well built structures being totally destroyed as was the case in south dade county during Andrew. I stand by my assertion that Puerto Rico was hammered by the affects of a strong category 3 hurricane. I expect the Caribbean metropolis of san juan to weather this hurricane quite well and I don't see a devastating effect on tourism.

1 hour ago, Tibet said:

Have we actually gotten reliable damage reports out of the south-east of PR? I keep seeing San Juan... but they likely didn't get the worst of the storm.

The most experienced hurricane chasers in our hemisphere were on the ground there and their reports and footage suggests CAT 3 damage from my vantage point. 

10 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

I hope that irma and maria serve as a reminder that the basics still hold true for tropical cyclones- land damages tropical systems.


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The folks in Coral Gables at the NHC need to learn this as well.  I want everyone to take a moment and watch clips of Dr. Bob Sheets during Hugo and Andrew and remember what a strong leader and communicator he was.  Someone needs to go in and take control of the NHC and be able to go on tv during a major hurricane and be able to articulate a message.  

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Hurricanes typically don't weaken as much as people think north of the VA/NC 80 degree SST cutoff after late August.  They will usually plummet to around 85-90 mph and then can be stubborn beyond that because they are often being aided by some sort of upper level feature and or semi ET transition.   In June/July/most of August more weakening seems to occur.  This is likely due to SSTs being cooler as there is frequently a lag and less likely to see ET transitions or dynamic upper level features helping systems in summer 

Forward speed also plays a role which you've mentioned before in reference to the fact that Charley packed a strong punch over Orlando in 2004 because it was moving relatively fast.  Wilma packed such a strong punch in the south florida New York 6th boro counties in 2005 because it was moving fast.  Edouard fell apart in 1996 off Nantucket because it was moving so slow.  We don't have much satellite evidence but the forward speed of the 1938 new England storm of the century played a role in the devastation in southern new England.

Clinch Your the man on this storm

 

I have seen you nail another storm like this

 

Well done man, well done

Agreed!  I've been a fan ever since he nailed a March 2005 storm.  Hard to believe it's been a decade. 

Will this rival January 2005 blizzard? I think so or beat it. And match February 2013..

 

Or dare I say it, it matches 1978

I feel it pales in comparison to all three.  2005 had absolutely ferocious snowfall rates.  This storm hasn't even come close. 2013 was extremely high impact because the snow had so much juice to it and caused so much tree and powerline damage.

Even though the storm may move out faster, you still have tons of time for more heavy bands to develop, I'd be shocked if you didn't get more than a foot if you have 9 inches already. The storm is still well to the south.

What do you have?  Are you in Kingston, or N. Kingstown?  As the crow flies you're probably 15 miles or so WNW from me.

Anyone have any thoughts on the unfortunate Nantucket/Vineyard dryslot? I have 8-9 inches and I think I'm gonna struggle to get over a foot because the radar returns to my south and east look weak.