psuhoffman

Don't, it was depressing. Weaker wave but also pushed the thermal boundary way north so it was mostly just rain or ice without much snow anywhere, even north of us.

CMC is some ice to rain Wednesday...but its ok because it follows it up with another even bigger rainstorm Friday!

it's a clear connection...CMC is trending south with wave 1 and north with wave 2.

We will probably miss Saturday south, Sunday north, and next week will end up ejecting in 2 waves...the weak frontrunner will go south and the main one will amp up and cut.

with the trend away from strong HP in front we probably need a weaker storm at this point. Something amplified probably creates too much southerly flow and we go to rain. Not even sure ice anymore given the trends in the thermal profile the last 24 hours. But there is still room for it to work out if we get tight spacing and weaker waves.

if its close...root for snow. We have no idea what mid week will look like by the time we get there. No way you turn down snow now for snow later unless the snow now is pitiful and the threat later is a high probability blockbuster. The only time I was mad about snow now vs later was in 2015 when we had a great amplifying trough with 2 waves and the frontrunner took a bit too much energy and ended up pulling what would have been a real blockbuster OTS. AND...in my case it was only 2-3" so I was willing to kick that at a chance at a BIG snow a day later. DC got like 4" so for them it was a better deal. But in this case...next week is WAY out there, might not even be a big deal, and Sunday has decent potential if it breaks right so just root for the snow in front of you.

CMC has been in its own world with a way north solution for a while

That is kind of the relationship I see here... stronger wave one will pull the boundary south for wave 2. If we get the perfect balance we could get both. Hell...get the absolute perfect balance...just enough wave one, get wave 2 south of us THEN bomb it out...and we get all 3! Of course the glass half empty side says... the wrong balance and we fail fail fail

When I am in here I try to be metro centric as much as possible. Besides in those setups rooting for you is good for me too because if you do OK then I can do GREAT. When DC gets totally skunked I can eek out a pretty decent event like I did but a BIG time storm is not likely. Usually for me to get 10" plus I need your area to get a few inches at least.

I care about their wx model as much as I do your posts

And this is why the EPS looks like crap... if there are other negative influences, such as isotherm talks about...this might not be enough of a signal to overcome that. The forcing certainly is located in the right places but the wave is weak sauce...figure that after an amped up ape mjo through warm phases all winter it would become a wimp when it finally makes it into cold phases. lol

@C.A.P.E. no wonder the CFS looks good...pretty sure this signal would overcome whatever destructive interference is coming from other pattern influences!

Thanks. Yea I abandoned the “Nino plots” a while ago (although the current soi drop has me hold out some hope). But like you said the phase 8/1 neutral is a good look also and by Feb 25+ we should start feeling that affect. I’ve been sticking too that but man I would like to see the guidance come around soon! I guess it has made a couple fairly significant shifts at medium leads this winter already so why not again when it sees the mjo influence?

Case in point...the ICON has a 1035 high parked over Albany as the Tuesday storm comes in...and forces a thump of snow even though the SLP is cutting to Detroit. With even a slightly ok track it would be a good snowstorm with that antecedent pressure pattern and air-mass. Of course relax that high at all with that track and its simply another cutter all rainstorm.

lol... well I kind of see the fail pathway this weekend... the saturday wave is pretty weak sauce and could easily wash out and that creates a cutter Sunday. But the only saving grace there would be a stronger Sunday system would increase the chances of snow Tuesday. Always save the best for last!

Thanks... What do you think is the main cause of the SE ridge and inability to get a PNA ridge on guidance despite -soi and MJO phase 8? Error or time to admit its just not happening this year, even if we finally get the pacific forcing right?

SOOOOOO close! ICON does suck so mostly just having fun until the reliable guidance actually kills our hopes and dreams soon. No idea if its right but IF the Saturday wave does wash out the Sunday wave likely will cut. It was the return flow behind the first wave that kept the second wave south of us. No weaker/south wave 1 goes the further north wave 2 goes.

Icon totally dry with the Saturday threat...but its ok because its really WET with the cutter right after it

Icon isn't much better

I agree to an extent...but I have also found over the years that going with the model that shows the least snow often verifies the best, unfortunately.

like Bob says, somethings the weather just weathers... obviously there is a causation but we do not understand every detail to to every finite level...and it is possible the causation is linked to various very small sensitive effects and not just one or two major ones making it much harder to identify why thing's aren't going according to expectations.

Yea, surprised that the CFS goes off on a tangent so early in the run. By week 2 it is already incredibly divergent. But unfortunately the way it evolves the pattern is highly dependent on the NAO block. Without that I can see how that becomes the trainwreck the EPS is in week 2 and then week 3-4 are in doubt as well.

Interesting read... some of those point's I agree with 100%, like the interference regarding the MJO. The connection to the SSWE is interesting, we kind of speculated before but this would imply the SSWE did actually hurt us because it caused the increased MJO activity but then we never reaped much benefit because of its failure to propagate fully. UGH lol Some of that I find more useful to right now but less so what is coming. We are into phase 8 now as of today. So why week 2 would be trending towards a phase 6 look is well beyond the typical lag effect. I could see it if we were talking about the next week or so, but by day 10 we should be past any effects from a phase 6 that ended a few days ago. What is interesting though is the idea that without propagation east the previous signal lags so perhaps that keeps us under the influence of a phase 7 regime. But the euro as of yesterday did propagate the wave into 1 and still did not show a phase 8 response. So this is all interesting but there are questions and gaps in some of that imo.

maybe, but the PDO doesn't look THAT hostile to me. It's kind of neutralish imo with conflicting good (NE PAC warmth) and bad (warm pool east of Japan) signals. Not discounting that possibility... there is obviously something I am missing.

Ji famously complained that missing the "threats" late February and early March 2010 ruined that year.