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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    There's my baby
  2. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    none of that sounds good, but I should let it play out
  3. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    ehh yes but the NAO is slightly negative to begin with, not enough to lock the high in but it wont fly out either, and things have been faster on models tonight. It might be ok.
  4. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    Today was a day of flux on the models. Yesterday all the models were keying on the second vort to dive in next week. Today they are starting to key on the first for a storm. That is why its sped up by a day. They still wash out much of the H5 energy for the storm after 108 hours. I want to see in future runs if they continue to evolve and put more emphasis on the first vort.
  5. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    GGEM is out to 180 on ewall Does give another 1-2" of snow from DC north after 144. So its basically a 3-4" snow for the area Best of all it rides the low due north into new england so NYC and BOS get rained on in later panels.
  6. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    1/26/2004 was mostly an overrunning event with a trough of low pressure banked up west of the apps against a high over New England. Eventually a very weak coastal did form but it moved due east and out without adding anything. 5-7" DC area 8.5" for Manchester A few inches up to Philly nothing north of that. Best example I could think off from memory.
  7. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    Don't let him get u down, GGEM is a very minor tweak from being a SECS/MECS for DC.
  8. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    best case scenario would be a hybrid type solution. With a 1040 high over New England we do not need sub 1000 mb low to get the needed gradient for good moisture transport. Its possible to get a nice overrunning event during the early stages of development, then have a decent low form once off the coast to add a little to the end. A bomb would probably be bad, we are in agreement there.
  9. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    its fine for this range, and judging from the RH at h7 there is more precip after 144
  10. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    I agree with you basically. However, my point is not to use a single panel of a model as gospel but to show that right now just about all guidance shows that about 100 hours from now there is a pattern that has potential. From that point on they diverge and some result in a storm and some do not. All of those possible solutions are on the table but the common thread is at 100 hours the pattern has potential. The GFS washes out much of the energy and still gives us a decent snowstorm and the biggest of the year for DC. It is not nearly reaching the potential this would have if it would amplify the first southern vort instead of hanging energy back. In the end perhaps that is correct but the setup is there. That is all I am thinking right now. Its way too early for specifics, just looking for the setup to be there.
  11. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    so you think this H5 setup does not have potential?
  12. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    Not really, models just take their sweet time digging that energy in and in some ways hold it up waiting for the next vort to dive in. It might be error...models have trouble figuring out which vort to amplify. IF it is that first one we are golden. The other options is if that storm off NC can amplify more and become a sudo 50/50 we could hold the cold in longer and then it wouldnt matter as much if it takes its time.
  13. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    Not bad
  14. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    18z GFS ensemble mean precip for the event
  15. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    yea GFS is having issues, so is the Euro, with all the vorts involved. Just when one is starting to amplify another comes into the trough and instead of amplifying it kills off the first and dives the second in, then does the same again. Its a weird solution and I don't buy it yet.
  16. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    yea GFS crapped the bed right there at h5, its still having trouble deciding what vort to key on so its splitting the difference between all 3 and never amplifying any of them. Usually one wins out and we see amplification. Not always, and in a year like this perhaps the GFS is sniffing out reality. The biggest thing for us is we want it to be the first vort that amplifies. That would give us a snowstorm. If its the second...ehh probably a big thump snow to rain, if its the 3rd....RAIN. The sooner this happens the better.
  17. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    I have to get back to work, but the last thing I am going to say about the 12z EC run is a repeat of a comment I made last year 7 days before the Feb 5th storm when a run of the GFS showed it changing to rain. I will take my chances with that h5 track. If the H5 prog of the euro is correct I think we will do ok. Does not mean a super blizzard or we stay all snow, but I think we would be happy with the end result with that H5 track. I will let others bicker over exactly where the surface low should be on a day 7 chart based on the H5. Euro hasn't been able to nail anything from 72 hours out this year, not sure I want to lose sleep over its 150 hour forecast right now. The threat is still there. The chance this changes to rain has always existed and is real, but its our best chance of a big snow if we get the right h5 track.
  18. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    its a LONG way out to worry about specific temperature profiles yet. I like that we have a storm, and its got a lot more southern stream mojo. Temps will be an issue but from this range the models could be way off on temps.
  19. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    if we can get a good track what I am hoping for is a scenario where lift holds onto snow a little longer, then we just dryslot as the warm air invades and lift is cut off. Nice front end Thump snow.
  20. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    The is going to go east, there is no block. We need the phasing to happen at the right time, far enough east but not too far. Its not perfect but its a better shot then we have had because the H5 is digging south of our lattitude finally. It could cut west of us, but at least it has a "chance". I like the setup though because as long as the northern stream vort doesn't miss the phase like the GGEM, there will be cold air initially so even with a costal hugger we would get a shot of snow to start. I know its not great but its a different setup and anything different is good to me right now. Ill take my chances flirting with the rain/snow line over another miller b scenario.
  21. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    question is does that northern stream energy dive south and phase with the STJ, or does it lift northeast and screw everything up again. That will determine if there is a storm. Like was said earlier, if the first northern vort misses the phase, there will still be a storm but 2 days later and after the northern stream has chased the high OTS.
  22. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    Ok, you asked for it...
  23. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    sounds like the euro is still at the party too "hr 162 has lgt to mod snow from phl to to stroudsburg then west along i80...mod snow in dc and balt, though the 850 line is just south of dc " per Tombo
  24. psuhoffman

    The Psuhoffman Storm

    UKMET boards the train
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