psuhoffman

he seemed to hold out some hope for March but admitted its a disaster until then.

yep...it would take only slight adjustments to get DC into the game for a nice thump snow. I think we are cooked up here. I would say on to the next but next might be 2 weeks away looking at how things are trending next week.

They use the same flawed metrics on wxbell...probably because they havent changed them since Ryan left to do weathermodels.com. It's really really bad. It seems to count all precip that falls with any measured level near freezing as snow. I have seen times when it's not even really close at all...not even ice actually...its like 35 degree rain and its showing up on the maps as snow. Times when the actual rain/snow line is 150 miles away in northern PA and its showing up as snow here. Its so so bad and it skews those maps really bad. When the mslp tracks are under us its not so bad and I take it more seriously...but right now most of that snow on the gefs is false signals from the two cutters next week.

I have never seen as fast a complete collapse of a great looking pattern as the last 72 hours. A single storm yea...but never a whole period in the relatively near range that looked great just fall apart like this. It's amazing in a train wreck kind of way. I think the failure of the cutter bomb this weekend was the first domino. I said a few days ago that while it was creating the chance of something this weekend...that it was also degrading the look for our bigger and better setup next week, and that if the weekend failed it would increase our chances of a total fail. That seems to be the direction we are heading right now. The trend to have a series of weaker flat waves vs an amplified system this weekend meant less suppressive flow, the cold shot got shunted off to the north vs diving into the east, the 50/50 shifted east, the trough in the west pulled back, and the ridge went nuts. It was a chain reaction of crap that just killed the whole thing. What caused the failure of anything to amplify to our northeast is beyond me but I think HM said something about that the other day and some causality link. But he was being his typical coded self and I was in too frustrated a mood to try to comprehend it.

That just means we're due for 4 straight crap years! There are a few problems with your law of averages assumptions. First...last year wasn't actually a crap year, it was a pretty good snowfall year across most of the eastern CONUS, and we just got unlucky. Those kind of local minimum flukes don't really count wrt overall climo trends. And...each year is independent of the others. It's like flipping a coin. Yea going in the odds of getting heads too many times in a row is low...but once each flip is done, the next one is still 50/50 regardless of the outcome of the previous ones. It doesn't work the way you say it.

torch... location of features doesn't matter. Euro goes ape with the ridge before it can get here and wrecks the thermal profile. No cold anywhere near us. ETA: its "close" if you want a little freezing rain to start...surface temps around 32 for a while...but even up here its not even close to any snow at all...starts as freezing rain all the way into PA...changes to rain all the way to upstate NY. No significant snow anywhere really...just blasts the ridging all the way up...VERY warm run. Looks kind of like the CMC with the thermal profile

The high pressure isn't what is suppressive...look at the h5 flow

OK I am gonna dig DEEEEEEEP here to find something positive to throw out there. Looking at the day 11 analogs there are a decent number of years showing up that rolled into a big snowstorm for at least some parts of our region a week later. Dates in 1976, 1956, 1964, 1962, and 1966 all show up about a week before a big snow. There are also several other years where our area got at least some accumulating snows a week later in 2001, 1967, 1996 and 1955. There were actually more years that DID feature snow after those dates than years that did not. It was all about a week later which is a bit past the usefulness of those, but the fact they all seemed to have a similar timeline suggests a lot of those years a similar pattern rolled forward into a better look for snow here a week later. So there is hope......week 3. LOL

You do... but I think I am calling it for north of 70.

Remember how I kept telling everyone I wanted to beat people with a stick when they mentioned 1985... there was a reason for that. It kept showing up in pattern analogs a LOT. It was the best match to the swe event. And the only argument against it as a good pattern analog was it wasn't a nino but this nino was weak anyways. Well guess what pattern kept showing up, and is still one of the top analogs to right now...1985. And our sensible weather ended up close to 1985 also. Quick cold shot. Minor snow events then a moderation. Some snow the rest of the way but nothing big. It ended up a better year WRT climo in DC then my area since a "little bit" of snow gets them to climo but leaves me way under. It was actually about a median year in DC while it was one of the worst snowfall years in the last 40 here. This year has been very similar from January 1 on to 1985. I hated seeing that year in the anlogs so often...and it has played out that way.

I'm not feeling it for us. Wish I was. This was the GEFS from 18z yesterday....that was a look that had my attention. This right here was a good look for our area This less so...this screams "fringed" with "some" snow but significant 4"+ snows staying south of us. Yea it could shift...but we are getting kinda close here... It's inside 48 hours, but more importantly the wave is taking mostly a west to east trajectory so the changes needed to get heavy snow up into our area would have to come pretty soon in the next run or two. Once this wave is out in the central states its pretty much locked in what happens to the east imo. I would be pretty excited if I still lived in northern VA or down towards Chill. But I think north of 70 is probably looking at a "fringe" with 1-3" totals most likely or maybe even worse.

We may never know completely, because it might be a case of several minor conflicting signals combining to create what happened. We might not have the level of understanding at that complexity to fully understand all the causality that went on. There are a few apparent things that stick out to me The MJO was a problem and didn't behave like a nino at all (but again what is the causality?) The SSWE might have been more of a problem than a solution. A sswe early in the season is correlated with enhanced MJO activity starting in warm phases. Now the kicker is that activity isn't always hostile for the whole winter. In years where the mjo progressed through cold phases it hurt early but then helped. This year the wave died without a full rotation through cold phases twice. This next wave seems to be giving it a try but is also having trouble fully manifesting through cold phases. There is obviously something hostile to a cold phase mjo wave this year. But if the SSWE enhances the mjo and the mjo is going to want to hang out in warm phases that is a big big problem. In a typical nino the mjo is muted and not much of a factor. That is why, IMO, we see typically warm mjo phases look colder in a nino, its not because that phase suddenly becomes good...its just in a nino its muted and LESS HOSTILE. But this year the mjo went ape and took over and it did it in a hostile way. The SSWE might have had an affect there. What is clear is we saw little help from the SWE. It didn't fully propagate to the troposphere in a productive way for us. I've seen lots of reasons for that but frankly I don't ever hang my hat on a swe event. They are unpredictable and often do us no good. If you just want some crazy cold event somewhere globally then yea rooting for them is great. If you are interested in snowfall in a specific location they are an incredibly inefficient way to get there. The PDO was unhelpful. I don't know how hostile it was...but we certainly never got the Aleutian Vortex typical of nino's. The PDO didn't help us at all. I think there is more to the SE ridge right now than the pacific forcing. I think that is being aided by another influence and is partially a cause not just an effect. Those are my thoughts as to what is going on. the problem is I have no idea what the causality to any of that stuff is and correlation without causality isnt very useful for predicting going forward.

The weather across the CONUS is always pacific jet driven...since we are downstream of the pacific, but what does that mean? For the last month, there has actually been a decent wave break in the central Pacific that prevented a straight pacific firehose into the CONUS. If that was the case the west would be warm too. But there has been a persistent north pacific blocking high that has forced the northern jet to ridge into Alaska and dig into the western US. If that is what you mean by pacific jet drive...ok I guess, but that can change at any time. Earlier this year that wasn't our problem. We have actually had various different problems at different times that prevented us from ever getting an ideal pattern. In December it was a pacific firehose. In January it was a WAR. In February it has been a north pacific block (or extremely west based EPO ridge if you prefer). There has always been one feature that is just flat wrong for our snow chances preventing a good pattern. There have often been enough things in our favor to prevent a total shutout look (except for the pac firehose in Dec) but we can't get it right either.

I watched JB's video today, hadn't watched one in a while...was curious how he is spinning it. He isnt. It was depressing. He seemed pretty beat up and depressed and it was as close to a winter cancel as he will ever make. Might make the weenies jump

that looks like poo

Why would we "roll" with that? If that is what is going to happen so be it, and we can't control it, but it sucks so why would we be like...yea lets roll with it?

Sorry to dump this during the 12z model suite but schedule is off today. The SOI has gone solidly negative and the MJO is now into Phase 8 for 2 straight days. So the progression didn't fail completely. But there might be some hints why we are not getting the response we need. There was a mention the other day that to get the response to a specific mjo phase we actually need it to progress into the NEXT phase. So we would get phase 8 if the wave is progressing into phase 1. I looked into that and I found several other sources saying the same thing so this seems to have merit. Apparently a stalled MJO tends to continue the expected pattern of the previous phase often. The CMC and GEFS products stall the mjo is phase 8 and cycle it around there. But that would make sense why we continue to be stuck in a phase 7 look for the next 2 weeks. Additionally look at the actual forcing charts for the GEFS. It makes sense that it had a great look for around the 20th and degraded it over the last week...look what it was forecasting for the tropical forcing then vs now That was a very strong phase 8/1 look, even if the chart didn't show it But look at the latest run This is ambiguous and kind of a non signal (its not a bad look...but not one that would bully the pattern either) So it would make sense that the GEFS shifted away from a great look that would align with a strong mjo phase 8/1 and into an ambiguous pattern look late. The EPS makes less sense. It progresses the wave through phase 8 to 1 but it also continues to have a lag with a phase 7 look until very late in the run. I know that is the non bias corrected but that IS what the euro is forecasting so the pattern should align to that. That is a good looking mjo progression. Maybe this is error...maybe just maybe the eps is playing into its bias and the other guidance is just wrong with the mjo. Maybe... As for where the indexes go. The SOI looks to remain negative the next week. After that it becomes more ambiguous but not hostile. At that point the damage should have been done with the negative burst though. I do think the GEFS and CMC are wrong with the mjo. They have continued to adjust every day then go off the rails after a few days. Right now the GEFS and EPS mjo are identical for the next 5 days....then the GEFS starts to diverge. It has been doing that and wrong for a month. It goes off on a tangent after only a few days and continually corrects one day further each day. No reason to think it is correct now. BTW no shock the CFS is the best look in the long range given this mjo look. This would override any negative other influences imo so if the CFS scores the coup on the mjo maybe the other guidance adjusts...but that seems a tall order. NOTHING else supports this level of amplitude with the mjo wave next week. The conclusion: On the whole the pacific tropical forcing looks favorable. Perhaps not perfect... the mjo wave becomes more ambiguous then I would like but in general the forcing is AROUND phases 8/1 and there is subsidence over the maritime continent and the soi remains negative. Perhaps we see guidance finally response for a better period in March but I have just about given up for week 2 as the -PNA SE ridge look to dominate regardless of the pacific forcing.

CMC is 2 big ol cutter rainstorms. Not even close.

ICON actually did OK with surface temps the other day, I never made it above freezing the whole storm. Wish I had. Lost a huge pine tree and a ton of large branches. I have some major cleaning up to do once the snow melts.

Something not getting any attention but its hurting us is the trend towards a slower system. That is a big deal when the cold is weak and retreating. There are other problems, the failure of any of the systems this weekend to bomb and create suppressive flow behind it, the trend of the 50/50 to end up further northeast in how it is oriented, more ridging...but equally a problem is this is now a full day slower than it was 72 hours ago. Latest run for 6z Wednesday precip hasn't even moved in yet a day ago storm is well underway at the same time 3 days ago storm is over and already off the map lol

My best guess is for the same reasons the humans got it wrong. 90% of seasonal forecasts made assumptions about the winter pattern that weighted the modoki nino pretty heavily. Usually that is a good bet as enso is a major pattern driver. However, and in hindsight maybe this wasn't given enough attention, when the nino is weak there is a higher instance of other pattern influences overriding and not getting the typical nino pattern. That is what seems to have happened this year. We spent the majority of winter in MJO phases that are more typical of a nina than a nino and so we ended up with some weird hybrid pattern with some components of both mixed in. It appears to me that the numerical guidance continuously tried to get the pattern to what the classic modoki nino analogs looked like. So probably they were making the same mistake. At range...as the current pattern "wore off" and the guidance struggled to see whatever OTHER factors were affecting the pattern...the guidance would over weight the enso and go right to the modoki nino look. Then would constantly adjust around day 10 when it became apparent and they could see the affect of those other influences. But as for why the guidance was unable to see those other factors and weight them correct I have no idea. But the humans weren't any better so it seems petty to be too critical of the NWP when it's only as good as the people who program it!

It's only frustrating because for our area the winter didn't live up to expectations. I didn't hear anyone complaining in 2014 when most expected a mediocre at best winter and it was snowing constantly from early December to April.

No northern MD was fringed by that. And northern MD averages 25+”. But forget average. I don’t care about average. I like big storms. So you have a 8-12” snowstorm this year. How many of those do you average a year? Actually how many do you average in a whole decade? Like 1. Maybe 1.5? You already had a once a decade type storm.

Naw I think this one ends up another dc area jack. I probably see some snow, maybe an inch or two, but I think the good stuff stays south.