KChuck

2 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

I just got a demonstration of how dangerous lightning can be.  Just overcast here and not raining but had a lightning bolt out of nowhere followed by the thunderclap one second later.  Here it is on RadarScope and the thunderstorm cell is a few miles to the northeast!  That is how people get struck

Would be interesting to see that in the different tilt radars.

33 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If you haven't seen one before, then don't cancel the reservations. If there is even a small chance that you'll get a good view of the eclipse, you go see it. You'll have more regrets if the weather turned out to be fine and you missed out, than if you go and the weather wasn't ideal.

Thanks for the advice! Wife and I saw our first one with the 2017 version in Greenville, SC. She didn't want to go but went to keep me company because she knew how much I enjoyed astronomy. I volunteered several years at the Keystone College Thomas Cuppilari observatory in Fleetville, Pa. I thought I knew so much about eclipses and what to expect after leading slide shows and discussions for so many years...hah! My wife burst out crying when totality came and you could look directly at the sun. My daughter, who doesn't see why people make such a fuss over such events, went on her social page that evening and posted to her friends an apology to all of the eclipse chasers saying that the eclipse was awesome. It's still too early to throw in the towel. My wife has an autoimmune disease that affects her muscles and is on a special diet which complicates traveling. I'm not worrying about the weather until Thursday evening. By then everyone should have a fairly good idea what we're up against. I have until 3pm Friday to cancel reservations and get a full refund so that takes some of the pressure off.

7 hours ago, eyewall said:

Looks like getting a backup room in Mountain View, AR may pay off.  Even there will be iffy but it is looking better up toward the MO line and towards Poplar Bluff not too far away.

Looks like everything may be coming up roses for you and Arkansas after peering at the latest eclipse time guesses. New York state looking like it's being infested with weeds as far as high, mid, and low level clouds go. Good luck to you! If nothing changes looks like Mrs and I will be canceling our New York reservations Wednesday and sitting this one out.

9 minutes ago, Ridingtime said:

For what it’s worth, things are definitely trending better if you follow these maps that I posted here for Dallas, TX. Yesterday cloud cover was at 75% and now it’s down to 48% and the blue is inching closer. Hopefully this keeps up

Unfortunately it seems to be headed in the other direction for the Northeast.

Anticipated map of fronts/pressures produced last night for 8am edt Monday morning. Write up from the WPC.

"Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... 

Model guidance seems reasonably agreeable with the overall pattern through this forecast period as highlighted by formation and subsequent slow transition of a massive Omega style blocking pattern over the lower 48 and vicinity starting by later this week. The large scale features consist of an upper trough/closed low over the Northeast finally ejecting into the Atlantic early next week, another upper low tracking from the eastern Pacific into the West later this week pivoting into the north-central Plains early next week with ridging ahead of it, and additional energy digging into the West by next Sunday-Tuesday.  Forecast spread and uncertainty are generally below normal overall, but does increase into early next week with the ejection of system energies from the West to the Plains along with complex associated cyclo/fronto genesis transitions. Forecast spread is certainly within typical levels for the Days 6-7 period, but has implications for frontal positions (and cloud cover for the eclipse in the central to east- central U.S.)."

Buffalo NWS 4:23pm disco...

"LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An omega blocking pattern will very gradually slide east across the  CONUS near end of this week and into early next week. Initially on  Friday, deep troughing in the form of a closed low will be located  over the Northeast to the eastern Great Lakes as well as west of the  Rocky Mountains, with a strong ridge of high pressure in the middle  over the central Plains. Unsettled weather will persist across the  forecast area though gradually wind down Friday through Saturday as  the eastern trough maintains a moist, cyclonic flow across the  region. 850H temps may initially be just cold enough around -8/-9C  for some lake enhancement Friday morning, though will likely warm a  few degrees through the day to effectively shut off this response.  This being said, will continue to nudge PoPs above NBM this period  as the continued influx of moisture and shortwave ripples aloft  should maintain at least some shower activity across the region.  Chances for precip will be highest across the higher terrain areas  east of Lake Erie and across the Finger Lakes where orographic lift  will be a factor. In regards to p-type, very marginal boundary layer  and sfc temps will support a mainly elevation-based mix of rain and  snow Friday through Saturday morning, though the strong early April  sun angle should limit the ability for any additional snowfall to  stick during the daytime hours.

The area should begin to dry out Saturday night as the closed low  over New England weakens and shifts out into the northwestern  Atlantic, and the ridge to the west builds east into the Great Lakes  region. As the attendant surface high moves over and eventually east  of the forecast area, clearer skies and warming temps will make  their way to the region by Sunday.

Now on the fringe of our routine forecast range, many eyes will be on Monday, when the path of totality for the highly  anticipated 2024 Solar Eclipse will cut through much of our  forecast area. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance are in  good agreement on the longwave pattern early next week, with the sensible weather across our area being dry and on the warmer  side, featuring high temperatures mainly in the 50s. At this  range however, uncertainty is very high in the amount of total  cloud cover and how it will be structured, especially across  western NY. Long-range guidance suggests increasing mid and/or  high clouds through the day, though whether or not these would  be dense enough to obscure any view of the eclipse cannot be  determined at this time. Stay tuned!"

14 minutes ago, etudiant said:

I can only admire the faith of eclipse lovers who give credence to cloud forecasts a week out.

As is, there is still a weather pattern to digest this week. Once that is past, the models may have some credibility. Until then, not so much, at least imho.

Contingency plans must be laid out based on the best available prognosis ASAP. Also cancelations must be done early for the case of any washouts.

54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

https://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=gfs_pgrb2_0p25_f&lat=43.04795&lon=-76.14745&tz=America/New_York&label=Syracuse, New York

 

wow nice-- I just looked up Syracuse and this says 0% high 0% middle and 1% low clouds for Syracuse at 2 PM on Monday the 8th..... this seems just such an impossibly low number of clouds for early April for the northeast.

An earlier Buffalo NWS disco said that an omega block was keeping the area clear the prior weekend and that eclipse cloudiness would be dependent upon how fast that block breaks down.

1 hour ago, wiivile said:

As we get closer to April 8, is there any way to tell by cloud cover maps where clouds will be high (less threatening) vs low (more threatening)?

If you go to https://spotwx.com and enter your location you will be presented with a listing of model site links. Go down and click on the 10 day GFS link. This will present you with a forecast of high, mid and low level clouds. This is the model that is in play this far out from the eclipse. You can also view the 10 day Canadian GDPS. This is the current 10 day GFS for Medina, NY. I added another screen shot as I forgot to change units.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

In this case deeper blue means more clear skies? So this is the complete opposite of the other chart, where deeper blue meant cloudy skies lol.

So basically, the further east you go the clearer the skies get?

Yes. In this model visual you want more blue. I'm set up for the Medina NY area. My take is that I'm looking at high cirrus. As you said, graphics are implying that you get better odds the further east that you go in New York. I've got my fingers crossed. I'm relying at this point on the Buffalo NWS for me. I'm willing to scurry to catch a better view, but with a forecast of 2.5 million people in the western New York area I have to wonder how many of those will have the same idea. I'm not willing to get into the middle of an Interstate parking lot again after my experiences post 2017 eclipse.

Updated Buffalo NWS disco for eclipse day...

"While beyond our normal 7-day forecast... The highly anticipated 2024  Solar Eclipse will occur Monday, April 8th in the afternoon. Model  and ensemble guidance continue to suggest dry weather for Monday  with high pressure surface and aloft over the eastern Great Lakes  and Ohio Valley, however it is FAR too early to forecast cloud  cover with any confidence or reliability."

37 minutes ago, Ridingtime said:

Oh crap, you’re right

Gah, I totally read it wrong. Ok *deep breath*…. it’s still 8 days out, hopefully this is enough time for things to change 

Yep. The thing that I've been worried about since I made my eclipse reservations back last November was a big weather system event. Often when a block breaks down something like this happens. But hey... it's the weather. In two days it will change, right?

1 hour ago, Ridingtime said:

I am flying in from Jerusalem, Israel to TX to see this (where I am from originally) so to say that I am invested in this is an understatement. Latest GEFS run is giving me some hope:

Um, if I'm reading this correctly, hope is fleeting for the whole US eclipse corridor with the exception of upper tier New York. The darker the color the better chance for clouds. Both the Canadian and American 10 day models, which I've been following for almost the past week, flipped and are now showing better than 50% cloud cover for the area that I'm focused on... western New York. Buffalo NWS stretched out their 7 day disco with the following...

"Mainly dry weather will return late Friday night and remain in place through the upcoming weekend as a stout omega blocking pattern looks to set up across the Lower 48, with deep troughing lingering off the East Coast and western CONUS and a stout ridge over the Midwest and Great Lakes. This will also bring about a strong warming trend to the forecast area into next week, with seasonable temps Saturday warming to above normal by Sunday.

While beyond our normal 7-day forecast...The highly anticipated 2024 Solar Eclipse will occur Monday, April 8th in the afternoon. FAR too early to give any semblance of an accurate sky cover forecast at this point, though cloud cover on Monday will likely hinge on how quickly the aforementioned omega blocking pattern begins to break down early next week."

18 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Speaking of the cloud thinning effect...here is a very recent study both from an observational and modeling perspective regarding the topic. [Trees et al. 2024]

Here is the HRRR simulation from the 2017 eclipse. Notice the shortwave driven clouds build just before onset of the eclipse and then wane rapidly as totality approaches. Then after totality passes shortwave driven clouds explode aggressively as the surface warming is reinstated. The bootheel of Missouri is an example of this. I was down there in 2017 and can corroborate the fact that there was a significant reduction in clouds in the 30 minutes leading up to totality.

 

I can vouch to the effect. Wife and I went to Greenville, SC where my daughter lives for our first total eclipse. I remember telling my wife that it wouldn't be too bad with the scattered clouds, that we should get a peak at totality. Went to the car for something about fifteen minutes before totality and on the way back to our site I looked up to see not a cloud in the sky. It was like God took his hand and swiped the sky clean. I watched the video that Bob Jones made of the event the other night and was still moved to tears thinking about the event.

https://www.bju.edu/eclipse/

Yeah. I've been watching the Canadian 16 day and have already switched to the GFS and the Canadian 10 day,  which will have the full eclipse day come into range tonight. I saw that the long range Buffalo NWS discussion looks promising also. Hope it holds! Can't imagine 2.5 million people flooding that area. I want to get settled off of the road into our eclipse location asap stocked with a full tank of gas and groceries.

What impact will this have on the upcoming April 8th eclipse weather across the country?

I've been following the weather closer the last week. I've got a reservation in Medina, NY area from the 6th leaving back for home on the 10th. Going to overnight in Lancaster, Pa on the way up from North Carolina. Waiting a day to start out for home after the eclipse. Learned my lesson in 2017 when traffic from Greenville, SC was downright atrocious. It took us around 12 hours to make a 3½ hour trip due to a jack-knifed semi. My wife's nerves were shot, mine not much better. Tried to find a hotel to escape the Interstate and overnight in but they were all booked. Wound up going all of the way home. Medina does not appear likely to be in a congested area as far as I can tell as it appears to be relatively rural. I'll feel somewhat comfortable doing a short chase if necessary. Don't want to get in crowds as wife has an autoimmune disease. If it looks like a front will come thru a few days before and wash out the eclipse I can cancel and get my reservation deposit back. Our reservation is about dead center in the track, so we won't have to travel anywhere if the weather cooperates. I'm using the following link to keep up with forecasts from one link.

https://eclipsophile.com/eclipse-day-weather/

I'm interested in the prognosis for this area for April 8th. Why you ask? No particular reason...  I'm planning on being in the Gasport area around that time period.

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

Is the 12Z GFS on crack? Inquiring minds want to know.

It wouldn't be the first time...nor the last!!!

1 hour ago, blueheels2 said:

Snow lol.  Never see that again!!!

On 2/16/2024 at 10:55 PM, Upstate Tiger said:

Cool story.  Thanks for sharing.  That’s the thing about big snowstorms, especially in the south, is we can connect them to some special people and times in our lives.  

The thing that I didn't mention is that the bust was due to an unanticipated fetch set up off of the Atlantic resulting in a moisture river flowing inland that dumped the aforementioned snow on the Scranton area.

My biggest snowstorm was Nov 25 Thanksgiving 1971 snowstorm while living at the end of the Pa turnpike in Clark's Summit, Pa. Forecast the day before was dusting increasing to 1" at 3pm. Went to get hoagies for family around 5pm and we're up 2"-3". Sent to bed with forecast now 4"-5". We had our rivalry high school football game played on Thanksgiving. I got up to use bathroom and mom was already up starting Thanksgiving dinner. She heard me and said she didn't think that they'd be playing the game. I got back to bed and she called in my bedroom saying that the game had just been postponed. I said for a couple of inches of snow? She asked if I had looked outside. My dad's car was in our drive so his dad could park his car in our two car garage while they visited... or at least it was supposed to be in the drive. Snow had drifted over it to the tune of about 2' on the ground. Wind was blowing hard all day and think we wound up with 3' or so. I missed the game by having to go back to college.

From https://www.freightwaves.com/news/worst-thanksgiving-storms-in-us-history

Northeast snowstorm Nov. 25, 1971

The night before Thanksgiving in 1971, snow began to fall in parts of the Northeast, including Pennsylvania. The snow became more intense throughout the night, and by the afternoon of Thanksgiving Day, snow totals across the state ranged from 20 to 30 inches. The biggest amounts piled up in northeastern Pennsylvania, but Albany, New York, also got slammed, with a snow total of 22.7 inches.

This was extremely wet, heavy snow, as temperatures through much of the storm hovered around 31 degrees. If temperatures had been lower, the snow would have been drier and lighter. The weight of the snow caused barn roofs to collapse, snapped off tree branches and knocked down power lines.

12 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Now a trip down memory lane in the opposite direction. I believe it was 2001 and they had forecast a foot + and hoisted warnings for all of central NC a day before. The day of I woke up and there was someone from the weather channel in Raleigh and they were talking about the system taking longer than expected to organize but snow was still supposed to overspread the area to the tune of 6-8”. As the day wore on it became apparent the forecast had missed badly and the storm was much further east than forecast. We went from a 12-16” forecast to getting barely a dusting. I think the eastern folks had a great storm but it was downright disheartening for us in central NC 

I had communicated with Van Denton of Triad Fox8 weather. He said that the forecast could have been a bigger flop as the models were calling for two feet.

23 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

I may be wrong but I still believe winter weather will still happen in NC before winter is over and not just the mountains. 

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

  What camp are you in? The I don’t care camp doesn’t count as this thread is for forecast discussion for serious folks. 

Are you serious???