notvirga!

I was just about to post this lol 

Getting some might snow and flurries in Owings Mills 

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

14-15, 18-19, 20-21, 21-22 were all pretty good here. Have you forgotten some of the winners from the 80s and early 90s?

My mom still lived in Winchester during those years so I paid attention and I think at least 3 of those winters were 30 plus inches around Winchester is that about right? 

Not a much of a bust here. 3.5 to 4 inches in Owings Mills

Snowing now at deep creek lake per md traffic cams 

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm at 38F, and there's a good amount of precip moving in from the West. Is any of that snow? 

Was wondering also.  precip is depicted on radar scope as rain tho 

17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We root for the RGEM/NAM....Bmore roots for the ICON.    You know what I'm rooting for?  Forum Peace.  

Euro would be the peaceful solution I think

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

at this rate by tomorrow I'm going to find out I predicted 40-50" with lollies to 60  

That’ll be rgem 

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just ended. 6” total. measured 2.5” on my pool deck around 7am and 3.5” just now. Current depth is 5.2”.  
 

Amazing! 

it’s all snow now Owings Mills. 

9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I really do think there is going to be an elevation marker that will make or break snow totals in this one. My gut is around 500ft +/- 50ft. It’s going to be that tight. 
 

I do like the northern crew on a line from the Catoctins across north-central Carroll and Baltimore Counties, then the northern tier of Harford and Cecil towards the PA line. 
 

Areas that have the best chance to do well are; Thurmont, Sabiasville, Taneytown, Emmitsburg, Manchester, Hampstead, Parkton, Jarrettsville, Norrisville, areas north of Rt 1 in Cecil, the entire southern tier of PA along the M/D. Additional areas that could cash decently include WV Panhandle, Mount Airy, Damascus, and terrain in Western HoCo. Any of these areas will have a shot at 2+” of snow imo with the best opportunity for high end advisory. 
 

Outside that is probably a 1-3” deal at best with the cutoff at 250ft elevation and south of I-66. 
 

This is my initial forecast just gleaning over everything and taking climo and BL temps into consideration. 

is this similar to what you are thinking? 

https://x.com/matthewcappucci/status/1757165780666290588?s=46

Gfs ensembles strong support the op so id be surprised to see a big shift at 18z 

Pretty huge shift with 4-5 days still to go. Good trends as others have noted I’m not hugely optimistic but did anyone think the euro was gonna suddenly go all in on a dc snow storm after what it showed 12 hours ago? I think a compromise might get the northern parts of our area into decent snow but I’m not sure if the euro is done trending south. 

57 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Doug K. Forecast is really going to come down to these next 4 weeks or so. He went big on his winter snowfall forecast.

Make or break for him.

Of course he canceled last winter with his snow fall forecast and was right. Let's hope he's right about  this year.

I believe he has my area in the 38 to 50 range so I've got some work to do to get there.

He’s a good forecaster. I watched his facebook weather 101 yesterday and he talked a lot about the pattern change mid month. He still seems pretty optimistic about our snow chances—as he should be. 

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

You aren't kidding.

 

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. North wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 47. North wind 7 to 9 mph.

Saturday Night

Clear, with a low around 30. North wind 3 to 6 mph.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 50. North wind 3 to 5 mph.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 31. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph after midnight.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 47.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 29.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 45.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 28.

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 50.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.

Thursday

Partly sunny, with a high near 55.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41.

Friday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58.

With any luck will be tracking something in 5-7 days. Fingers crossed 

Did not take the new Orioles ownership long to act. Really good trade 

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

We had like 5 inches of sleet on top of over a foot of snow. Only time in life that I have ever slipped and fell in my front yard. And didnt even punch through the frozen sleet glacier. It was nuts. One of the craziest storms of my life. But far from a favorite. 2016 will always be king daddy here. 

Living in Fredrick county va in the 90s we had a few this storms were so much freezing rain and sleet fell on top of snow that you could walk on top of it but it was extremely icy—occasionally you’d break through it—other times you’d fall on your butt. The last time that happened was probably the Valentine’s Day sleet storm in 07. But it happened several times in the mid 90s notably the great ice winter of 1994 where it seemed to be like that for weeks on end. I think after that winter my mom wanted to move. There were times my dad had to take her to car on the sled it was so icy. And we had long driveway in the woods—like 100 yards and had to park by the road because for much of that winter we couldn’t drive up it. 

55 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

That PD 2 in ‘03 was not forecast to be much if I remember correctly.  It way over performed in my area, at least. We ended off school for the week. That was good, because I was pregnant and down with a wicked sinus infection.  

Yeah it was forecast to be a huge blizzard and it was evident for about a week prior. I was in SC the week before and it was already being discussed on the weather channel. It did have a pretty sharp cutoff in central Virginia though where they got like 6-8 inches of sleet. It was bad storm but not a huge snow event in Charlottesville. The forecast for the northern Shenandoah valley was two feet plus. 

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I recall for several days it actually DID look like we'd get some big snow out of it (like a foot or so), but as it got within the short range it looked "warmer" and like we might end up with rain.  But it was so darned cold, and it was very entrenched, that in the end it was quite the ice and sleet event...the globals were of course scouring the cold out way too fast.  I recall eastern MD got very severe icing out of that...the cold layer was shallower so they didn't get "saved" by sleet like we did a bit farther west

Yeah I think even the night of the storm we were expecting 12 plus inches out in Winchester and it did start as snow before quickly transitioning to torrential sleet all night long. 

7 minutes ago, Fozz said:

2006-07 was an underrated winter here. On paper it wasn’t that great, but we had weeks of deep winter and bitter cold with a lot of sleet and a lot of light snow.

The first half was a horrible blowtorch but the second half was a lot of fun even if the numbers don’t show it.

Greatest sleet storm of my life. Valentine’s Day 2014. 6-7 inches of sleet in Winchester and then it froze solid and didn’t melt for a month. I remember at my apartment complex we were parking on top of 6 inch blocks of ice for weeks 

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, we're gonna miss it just south...but it was cold enough.  Of course.  We had the CAD...but not the precip.  Agonizing.  Good news...still a ways out!

It’s really come north a ton in the last 24 hours. Not sure it’s done 

16 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Hi Fozz, 

Here are the specific seasonal snowfall totals….during moderate El Niño episodes….for the two respective cities.  

Comparatively, the years of 1912 and 1914 stand out whereby the snowfall received in Philadelphia far exceeded the amounts recorded in Baltimore.  Otherwise, they’re pretty close, overall.             

Philadelphia, PA: 

2010: 1.5 67.3    

1987: 1.2 28.2    

1969: 1.1 27.9    

1966:1.4 46.2 

1964: 1.1 27.5    

1914: 1.1 94.1   

1912: 1.4. 73.9 

365.1” (52.2”) 

 

Baltimore, MD:

2010: 1.5 58.1   

1987: 1.2 41.7  

1969: 1.1 23.3  

1966: 1.4 53.2  

1964: 1.1 42.9  

1914: 1.1 26.0  

1912: 1.4 27.8  

1906: 1.3 19.5

1905: 1.1 27.6  

 

320.1” (35.6”) 

That’s a wild difference in 1914. I wonder why Philly received so much more snow 

More annoying than Taylor Swift are all the air heads already crowning Mahomes as the greatest qb ever. Let’s see Brady still has 7 Super Bowl victories. 

52 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Feb of 2015 here saw 28/28 below 32, 10/28 days the high was below 32, 8/28 were less than 10, 2/28 less than 0, 19/28 less than 20. The average temp for the month was 25.6 and that was 8.9 below normal, which is incredible for a monthly avg.

 

Jan to March of 2014 and Feb 2015 were incredibly cold out there. Saw a reading of -8 in Frederick county Va on my way to work one morning. I don’t recall if that was 2014 or 2015 but those two years had a lot of single digits and below zero readings. Probably the coldest winters since either 94 or 96. One more the temperature rose like 25 degrees between western Frederick county and eastern on my way into work (20 min drive). Single digits to 32x 

Dt says the 30th won’t happen so you what that means