AirNelson39

The problem is, Brad routinely posts vlogs when there is an upcoming system of any significance.  In that video, he explains, in an easy to understand way, the reality of the forecast and what may or may not happen.  However, people do not take the time to watch or listen and instead will believe a fantasy model they see posted. I'm sure this is super frustrating as a broadcast met.  
He is trying to do his best to debunk taking those maps for face value.  I think this is a great way to illustrate it.

I’m not a met and get pissed off when these morons on FB post the fantasy maps like they are gospel and say things like “not a forecast be we really need to keep an eye on this once in a lifetime opportunity that seems very likely next weekend”. Most people that don’t keep up with the weather like us don’t know any different, they don’t understand that the models can all be wrong 48 hours out let alone 4-6+ days out. I think I get more pissed off about these BS Facebook posts than I actually do with the storms not panning out.

Feel sorry for the folks that took the long range HRRR seriously. That’s worse that the 84 hour NAM and the 6 day euro. Another abysmal winter for NC foothills, 1 real event. Sigh

27 down here in Foscoe but no precip yet.

Saw there is a 20 car pileup being worked on 421. Currently no way up or down the mountain into Boone with 321, 221 and 181 also train wrecks.

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Yep looks like precip made it further west than what the short range models were even showing. Not surprised.

Time to put another fork in this weekends system for most of NC. The GFS has now shit the bed which was obvious given that it’s been on an island for 2 days. I had high hopes for the new GFS but it’s shown that it is mortal after all. On to the next one, hopefully.

Whatever ice the models are outputting right now aren’t even worth looking at, just look at the overall setup. Even 24 hours out they are usually 75% overdone regardless of the setup and regardless if the CAD is usually underdone because even with under done CAD on the models we don’t come close to what they show for IP or ZR.

Can someone remind me why this storm had a thread? Good grief. I love my liquid snow, it’s beautiful.

Driving back to NC from western KY on Sunday. Was already going to take the southern route (I-40) to avoid WV mountains but there seems to be a lot to fall in the Pisgah Gap. Worth going through Chattanooga and into Georgia and then I-85 to avoid or should Sunday be OK?

You’ll be fine, major interstates 24-36 hours after a small snow like this are always in great shape.

NAM has hardly anything. 

Showing us why the NAM is trash. Look at some of the outputs it’s had the last 24 hours. Euro and NAM are the new step brothers.

At least it’s not completely obliterated by the cold this run of the GFS, it’s a coastal snow storm but at this stage that’s perfectly ok for central and western NC

way too far out for me to get excited.  Cool storm to follow so far though!

Huh? It’s 3 days out. A better statement would have been it’s the 84 hour NAM on an island, no need to be excited yet. The name put out some ridiculous maps from last storm at 84 hours too. Not sold.

Which is fine for now

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Not really; a stop of the trend at this stage is pretty jarring blow. This thing is slipping away pretty quickly.

And to think there were people on here just 48 hours ago that swore up and down the euro knew how to handle this and the euro was king and the euro was going to prove this was a climo I-85 and west storm and the euro was this and that and the 84 hour NAM was sniffing out the NW trend yada yada yada….maybe we can agree the euro is trash and the NW trend crap can just as easily be a SE trend. I hope someone on the coast gets buried. They deserve it.

So glad we get to wish for the SE trends now. Next Apps runner will for sure trend into a Raleigh snow storm with the euro leading the way!

Euro is proving its worthless, flip flopping like a fish out of water. Can’t take it serious anymore.

Those of us from Raleigh understand that snow actually damages our local economy, creates physical hazards for our senior citizens, and prevents us from operating at maximum efficiency at work.  We are not foolish enough to wish that on ourselves.  Sign us up for a cold, gray, and dry day.  Or better yet, another fine white powder with the opposite effects of those listed above.  Thanks in advance.

Cliff dive of the decade, dove so far the senior living communities in Florida shifted to Raleigh. I really hate it for the seniors living in the Northeast.

Glad the NAM is showing everyone not to put an ounce of trust into at 84 lol. Stick a fork in this one for anyone in western half of the state. Congrats down East! You guys have proven the 4+ day euro is on crack and the 84 hour NAM is on meth.

Oddly this past week this place was booming. Now that it looks good for C/ENC, it’s a ghost town.

Actually inside of three days the forum was a ghost town for the last storm. Matthew East even made a comment about it.

Thank you euro for continuing to show you are no longer the king. What a joke lol

I think we can go ahead and stick a fork in this one for western NC, the Euro has crapped the bed on this one.  I want snow IMBY as much as anyone but when every model except the euro is showing Raleigh east at this range it's time to listen.  Congrats to the folks down east who haven't gotten in on the fun.  The 18z 84 hour NAM doesn't change my mind either.  

Sounds like last storm at this lead time 

Not even close honestly. The chances for western half of the state to see anything out of this are quickly dwindling, I don’t care what the euro says. When every other model is showing eastern storm and SE VA storm I don’t see all of them being that wrong. The last storm never had us in the west missing everything and down east getting the storm. It was always a foothills/Mtn storm on the models from a 7-9 days out, the earlier models just included the eastern part of the state getting in on it too. This is different.

This band of sleet coming through Caldwell County right now is nuts. Near white out conditions with sleet lol

Is that the Lake Hickory bridge on US 321?

Yes it is

Over to mostly sleet in southern Caldwell. Pretty insane with 23 degrees and 10-20mph winds.

Heavy snow southern Caldwell County
22.5 degrees winds gusting to 20

Big drifts!

Also, has anyone else noticed the snow/ice storm all the way down to the Gulf Coast GFS has forecast for the end of January? Obviously thats a ways off. BUT, this shows Baton Rouge & Savannah would get 17", Meridian 16", Biloxi/Gulfport 15" of snow lol. That would probably take a bitterly cold airmass to make this happen.

Yes, that along with other upcoming storm threats are being talked about in the Long Range thread. This is just for this storm