stormy

My low was 27.5 at 6:30.

The last 30 days says doom regarding moisture . DC and east have done great. Western areas are lacking. My April moisture is not good  1.92 vs  ..2 30 to date ...................................

A southern slider always works on April 26!!!  Somebody, start a thread!!!!!!!!

20 hours ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Yeah this one was a real nice event for the I81 Valley area..... Finished with 1.40 , almost double any event since January... Actually up to 2.10 for the month now... First 2 inch month since yep January...!

A few miles to your northwest I only received .67.  Whetstone Ridge up on the Parkway near Montebello at 3023 ft. reported 4.30"!!!!

Convection along the southeast coast is robbing lift potential over Virginia.

Robust dynamics to our west may be able to overcome.

89.4% at 3:17. A total failure because a heavy stratus deck moved in around 3. The weak radiation at 11% couldn't burn through the clouds.  Now back to 15% and the sun is returning but too late!

24.2 degrees this morning froze all blooming peaches, cherries and plums in my orchard.

Snowshoe has received 5 - 8 inches with mod/ heavy snow falling and 26 degrees.

27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I wonder if a +PNA would have prevented the earthquake.

/s

LOL  ........  LOL

26 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Today reminds me of Orioles Opening Day 2003. Except then it snowed.

In 2004 the opening pitch was at 40 degrees!!!!!

Its beginning to snow at Spruce Knob at 34F. 

6 - 12" can fall at these heights above 3500 ft during the next 48 hrs..

.63" last night and this morning.  Finally a decent rain!!!

24 hours ago, the 171 input suite of the NOAA NBM predicted that central Augusta would receive an average of .70" of qp by 12z today.

I have received .08".

18 hours ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Your study seems to give you the ability to predict March precipitation based on DJF snowfall. But...

.... If you can find a way to make March (accurately) predict the following year DJF snowfall; well, that would certainly get attention.

That would be earth shattering!   I'll look into it.

A 10 year run of 90% accuracy is phenomenal.

2.54 " March total rainfall. This is only 72% of normal.

A rather remarkable statistic:   8 of the past 8 Marches have been drier than normal in my area. 100% dry in March during the past 8 years!!

7 of the past 8 winters have had below normal snowfall.

87% of the time during the past 8 years, low winter snowfall precedes a dry March west of the Blue Ridge.

The last wet March was 2015. During the winter of 14/15 I had above normal snowfall.

Before that, March of 2014 was wet. I also had above normal snowfall for the 13/14 winter!!!!!!!!!!!!

4 hours ago, mdhokie said:

Hard pass. This seems to be a reoccurring theme around here, the pattern we want in jan/feb shows up in MarchApril. 

I

The pattern in late week would not benefit us whether it was Jan. or April.  Up-slope snow does not affect areas east of the mts..  We are in a down-slope region.

.17" rain on Wednesday. 2.38" so far in March vs a normal of 3.51".

I will plan to post tomorrow or Monday about dry Marches in my region related to previous winter snowfall.

A 3 model blend gives the higher elevations of W.Va. between Elkins and Snowshoe 9. 7 inches of snow between Wednesday and late Friday.

22 early this morning. 

11 years ago this morning was a winter wonderland at my place!  6.5 inches of snow and 28 degrees. 3.5 inches fell on Palm Sunday afternoon and 3 more inches Sunday night. Mar. 25, 2013.

The squirrels are shivering this morning at 22 degrees!

.83" total.

As I suspected yesterday afternoon the Icon was out to lunch with only .53". The GFS nailed it at .82"

I have discovered an astonishing relationship between March rainfall and previous winter snowfall during the past 8 years.  More on this when March welcomes April.

I must believe the 18z ICON is out to lunch because I see greater lift potential to the west of 95.

The 18z ICON pushes the heavy swath of rain to coastal areas.........................................................

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Much wetter than 12z overall. I think your assessment is off a bit though. Heaviest rain right along and esp east of I-95 near the bay.

 

Unfortunately, I must agree!   The heaviest swath is shifting east.  We will know by 00z Sunday.

According to the 18z NAM 3 and 12, the heaviest swath of rain will run up east of the Blue Ridge toward 95.

March has been very dry across the Central Valley. I have received a total of 1.38" compared to a normal on March 21 of 2.31".  This is only 60% of normal rainfall.

This reality has resulted in a rash of wildfires aggravated by high winds.