stormy

Oh well, I'm more interested in a soaking rain. Waynesboro has declared an outside burning ban because of how dry we're getting. My latest 4 model blend gives Waynesboro .89" Friday night/Saturday. Nice!

28 early this morning is a lot better than 12F at the summit of Spruce Knob. Rt. 250 is covered with snow at the Va./W.Va. state line at 4332 ft.. Looks like maybe an inch.

Elliot Knob 20 miles west of Staunton is 4463 ft. and expecting 4.4 inches of snow Friday night. Hike to the summit. Reddish Knob about 20 miles north on the Augusta/Pendleton county line at 4398 ft., has a narrow paved road to the summit with large potholes.

On Sat. morning I can drive to 4400 ft. withing 20 miles of my place. A lot better than 95 miles to Cannan for 3400 ft.. , 1000 ft. lower. Of course that would be 70 miles n.w..

Thanks Cape. We both know this is not likely to happen. The 18z GFS has dropped from 5.0 to 2.9" for Augusta. But, during a slow week, it gives us something to chat about. Wow! the GFS increased from 1.38" to 2.04" qp for Augusta!!!

The 12z GFS and GEM runs are becoming a little more bullish on the WOTBR snow threat for Friday night, both op and ens. GFS op - 3- 5" both 10:1 and Kuchera qp 1.38" previous .65"......... GEFS 1 - 2 " previous .3" ......qp .55" previous .30" GEM op - 0 ................ CMC ens .8" previous .4", qp 1.05" previous .60" ECM 0 ECM ens 0 A long shot but the trend is my friend.

12z GFS still likes accumulating snow for the Valley Friday night. Quebec high, ENC low, timing could work.

This looks fine for Friday night in Augusta County. Track of lp is encouraging.

A high of 70 on Friday felt wonderful. Of course, that was cool compared to 1944 when it was 86 in Staunton! And warm compared to 1993 when it was minus 3. My peach tree will be in bloom in another week or 10 days. Apples and plums later. Most fruit will freeze this year.

You are wise to question theory through observation. 50 years ago the accepted last frost date for my region west of the BR was May 10... Today, horticultural experts have moved the last frost date to May 15. In the fall the first frost date usually comes 10 days later than 50 years ago.

Thanks for this wealth of information! The 50's and 60's gave me a cautious attitude about PDO influence because most of the 50's averaged -1 to -3 (snow drought) then + 1 to +1.7 from late 57 - 62 snowy , then negative again -1 to -2 for the rest of the 60's which also produced some cold snowy winters. I am beginning a study of AO/NAO influence on MA winters and will have more comments as my study bears fruit over time. An early on empirical snapshot tells me that the AO is usually a more reliable factor than the NAO.

The current "deeply negative" PDO began in 2020. That is only 4 years ago. Prior to that it was moderate/strongly positive. During nearly all of this time we have been well below normal snowfall whether or not it was cold enough to snow. A lot of this has been dependent on timing and track of precipitation bearing systems.

Regardless of your theory, I'm not convinced a positive PDO will be the magical elixir for snowfall because the 50's and 60's both witnessed a mostly negative PDO with a brief positive from about 1958 - 1962. Under mostly negative conditions as we have witnessed since 2020, the 50's witnessed below normal snowfall and the 60's witnessed above normal snowfall. I don't find any significant impact because of the PDO phase.

You seem to be confident that a PDO flip will make a difference. I'm not convinced. During the past 100 years, other factors have resulted in snow droughts for 10 years or more. Please give me examples of how a positive PDO enhanced snowfall.

Nice today. March 23 - April 10 will be nasty with snow at times in western elevation areas.

I could believe that if the heavy snow swath was 125 miles west of depiction.

I said that 2 weeks ago.

I lost power for 4.5 hrs. yesterday afternoon when a large oak tree fell across power lines in 45-50 mph winds.

I love this triviality on a drizzly Saturday afternoon! Better luck next time. There is no high to the west or NW. Nagshead is 75.62 longitude. D.C. is 77.03. Ogdensburg is 75.48 longitude.

I think Ji would be happier with a 976 over Nagshead and a 1036 over Ogdensburg. Me? I can be happy with either as long as we have rain or snow on the 19th, after all, my region has had a dry February and early March. We have been dry slotted again today.

.15" yesterday. As usual, I-95 to the coast won the sweepstakes. Deltaville reports 2.09"

Absolutely not! I have confidence that the screening is adequate to eliminate counterfeit red taggers. Supposed was a poor choice of words. I am very surprised that someone with his obvious knowledge would seriously suggest on March 4 that "its over" except 3000' +. We are at least a month away from making that statement, even at 2000'.

I am very surprised that a supposed professional would say its over on March 4.

A few hours ago, Chris78 gave me good advice...... Thank you Chris!

Go for it Will!!!!!!!!!!