SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Wow ohio is looking good!  NY state gonna get largely screwed though.

Euro and GFS ops now both have precip for Erie/Cleveland.  That was gonna be my target.  I'd hate to drive hours out there with 2 young kids and have clouds.  I'm hoping for either a clear cut sunny day forecast or clear clouds.  50/50 is gonna be a tough call.

GEFS skunks the entire path basically, socked in the whole way across CONUS. 

We’re done, final grade, B- because we had a week of actual winter. 

I’ll call it a quarter inch 

New HRRR is dry as a bone, 0.14 QPF for dc.

Blend everything and it’s an easy 2-4.  Not sure what the handwringing is about here, this was never supposed to last more than a few hours.  Hard to get 4-6 inches that quick with a clipper type system in dc but still it’s not out the question. 

Silly question - when you guys know a new model run has dropped do you check the model first or the thread first?

44/18

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS

Acceptable, would be nice to have some high pressure to the north but beggars can't be choosers.

Wow almost 2 inches of QPF in like 6 hours lol on this storm.

GFS 0.6 qpf for DC

1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Whats up with the HRRR? Its all north and stuff, has the old screw job precip orientation where it is snowing in Massachusetts before DC. Only 1-2 for DC, Central Jersey is 4-6. Strange.

 

This model has done a terrible job with just about every event this winter.

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Snow exiting @33, a little drier but this time

Another great run, almost 5 inches in dc on the 10:1 map. 

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Isn't that just rates? Euro just seems drier overall. I think the question is whether you buy the mesos with the intense dump or is that being overplayed and the Euro is correct with less intense rates? Or maybe something in the middle, which seems like the GFS.

Yeah, maybe, but whenever in reent memory we were waiting on a 10+ degree temp drop in order to get snow without any arctic air nearby, the warmer models are usually right.

2 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

What does Euro map look like?

skunks the entire 95 corridor up through NYC and boston, warm and not much snow.

1 minute ago, Ravens94 said:

Euro is warmer since it lacks heavy precip. Euro has been wrong the last 2 

We will see but in pretty much all of the marginal events like this in recent memory without CAD it usually works to pick the warmer models.  

Just now, Ravens94 said:

I mean this is just phenomenal 

Still too warm for immediate metro but N/W with elevation this could be something.  But red flag is the Euro is about 5 degrees warmer than the RAP at 12z.  Euro has DC at 39 and RAP at 34.

So all those EPIC h5 looks really have dried up?  Or is the good pattern actually happening it's just not going to produce snow?

6z euro folks 

Another nice day....feels springy in the sun.

Kinda feels like we're outta time.  Maybe the #epicpattern will surprise me but somehow I doubt it.  We had a week of actual winter so I will give this year a minimum grade of B- regardless what else happens.

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Swimming is great. Used to do it competitively. It just takes more time to drive to a pool, change into my suit, and do enough laps to get enough cardio benefit, and then change and drive back. But I’m definitely keeping that option open

I have always been a runner but got a peloton due to some unforeseen circumstances that arose that prevented me from running on certain days.  I was so skeptical at first but peloton cycling is incredibly efficient, you can get a phenomenal workout in 30 minutes.  Now I split peloton cycling and running and I’m fitter than I ever was when I ran exclusively.

So in all seriousness, how is the pattern looking?  I am seeing solidly positive 2m temp anamolies for Feb 14 on the 6z GEFS and the same thing from the 00z EPS at the end of its run.  Are we still thinking this rolls into a better pattern for the second half of Feb or is it losing the progression altogether?  I know the weeklies were still looking pretty good as of yesterday. 

The mojo in the long range thread is gone, no more epic pattern talk, +2m anomalies that never die.  Getting close to “bring on the cherry blossoms”.

So weird to see people in shorts and dining outside on january 26 in silver spring Maryland.