SomeguyfromTakomaPark

We should all pause for a moment to note that we are currently tracking a cold powder bomb that is trending better and also a potential big storm in the long range. This is what weather tracking is all about.

HECS on the nam

LOL 12-16 inches down in DC and still dumping at 00z Sunday

Bigtime weeinie run, probably gonna be 10-12 for DC based on the way the radar looks.

Wow! 6-8 for immediate DC metro! Maybe even better if we can get ratios to work out.

As for headlines, did upgrade the advisory to a warning for the northern Shenandoah Valley and the Washington Metropolitan area. Am concerned that east-west oriented banding may cause locally higher amounts across these areas. Frontogenetical forcing increases as the low passes by to the south late tonight into Sunday morning, and looking at the 00z nam bufkit, did notice the Eqivalent Potential Temperatures nearly neutral with height for a period between 06 and 12z along with slightly negative EPV and Frontogenetical forcing that lines up, suggesting that CSI banding is possible. Elsewhere, left the headlines from the previous forecast. Still looking at a most likely of 2-5 inches across northern Maryland, the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia and the Baltimore Metropolitan areas, with 4-7 inches elsewhere. Do want to point out that there is still uncertainty regarding the placement and location of any banding precipitation and also with the track of the low. Any slight change in either direction will have an impact on snowfall totals. Having that been said, there will be impact from snow across the entire CWA tonight into Sunday.

Looks a little drier for us than 18z but still good.

That last little blob Sunday night would be the icing on the cake.

Getting close to as @Bob Chill would say “chips fall” time and Euro keeps trending better and better, can’t realky ask for more.

I’m working on a 6-pack of India brown ale, that’s one of the best beers you can get in a 6-pack around $10.99 IMO.

Start with a nice double IPA.

Just drank a dark high ABV beer, splitting wood for the fire, got the sled out of the garage, ordered some takeout for dinner, can’t beat the night before a winter storm.

I'm not saying they're wrong, just that low teens is pretty cold for around here.

I like the NBC map 4-7 right now for most of the metro. Aside from the GFS pretty much unanimous agreement in 0.4+ of QPF with decent ratios.

Euro has surprisingly cold temps for Monday AM, 14-15 degrees in DC proper.

Coastal looks a little further north on the UKMET, gonna be hard to tell until the precip maps come out.

Another nice run from a Canadian model. They are very consistent with 4-8 for the metro DC area...would be really great.

Someone needs to 5-post the guy posting play by plays for 200 hour op runs in the long range thread.

Despite the better 500 look early it appears to have trimmed back totals in the Northern area and holds steady around DC, but of course its the NAM past 48 hours.

NAM has higher heights out in front at 36.

Euro “much further north with the coastal” according to tombo.

The orientation of the max stripe of snowfall seems to be shifting closer to, or over our CWA on the latest models, even the euro. That’s about all you can ask for.

True, and it’s the lowest any model is showing.

Sure it’s possible but it doesn’t seem like the likeliest outcome since no models are showing that.

Yes, temps are cold, let’s get some snow on the ground, get the pattern right, and then go hunting for some big storms. This was never looking like anything more than light/moderate.